Papal Conclave 2025: My picks
Ok, so I've already started a short essay series to post on this little Hellsite (affectionate), but I wanted to lay out my papal bets before they actually vote a guy in. The last conclave to go beyond a week was the one in 1830-31, so time is short.
NB: I watch Church politics and cardinals like other people watch college football. Draft Day = Conclave, but there's only guy drafted. I do have an advanced degree in medieval history, so I feel relevant for once.
Top pick: Matteo Zuppi of Italy (serves in Milan, born of Rome). Zuppi looks like Big Bird if he was a person. He's anecdotally very kind and humble; he bikes wherever he goes and is nicknamed Don Matteo by the locals. (Don Matteo is also a mystery solving priest on Italian TV, so it's affectionate.) Like Francis, he shuns the swag. He's a street priest -- literally on the ground with people. He is pastoral while also being very academic (5 books with another on the way). He wrote the intro to Fr. James Martin's book on outreach to LGBTQ people. He's ok with LGBTQ parishioners, blessing their unions, and having married priests. Though he's officially stated he wouldn't permit lady deacons, he's academically curious, however. He was Francis' man to go to Ukraine to try to negotiate, and the Ukes liked him even though he didn't come out with a success. He was also Francis's man to start reforming and investigating sex abuse within the Italian Church. He's got the academic, pastoral, and diplomatic street cred, and somehow, he's still a relatable human. He does have a rep of being ferocious when necessary, so I think he could excommunicate someone (with a lot of documentation and footnotes, of course).
Possible alternative: Luis Tagle of the Philippines, who is nicknamed the Asian Francis by some due to how closely their theology and practice are. He is less likely to be ok with women deacons, but would embrace married priests to increase the priesthood in the Philippines. He wrote reforming texts about the sex abuse back in 2003, before the Papacy really got to work on it. He was ahead of the curve. He's very kind and happy, but some worry he won't do well when confronted by antagonism. He also cries very easily; he's one of the younger cardinals at 67, so while that's ok with the younger generation, most of the voters are more uptight about that sort of thing. He also may not lower the hammer on people as hard as Francis did.
Park the Bus: Pietro Parolin of Italy. Parolin looked more likely early on, but his reputation got brigaded by allies of JD Vance and Catholics of that tilt; Parolin was the guy who chewed out Vance and probably bandied about the 'excommunication' word if Vance didn't stop distorting doctrine for political gains (and yes, the Church can kick you out for that). Parolin was very much Francis' right hand man, the Vatican Secretary of State from the moment Francis became pope. Recently, there had been scuttlebutt about Parolin cleaning up B16's abuse mess -- and not telling Francis, which may have caused a rift between the two. Parolin agreed with Francis, but would not take the doctrine further. Parolin always struck me as not having enough pastoral experience; he did 2 years in Nigeria, but all the rest of his work has been in diplomacy and admin -- he doesn't have the same charisma or personable-ness that Francis has. He'd probably read more like Benedict XVI, who was known for his writing and his cats, not his people skills. As the cardinalate trends younger and global and progressive, conservatives may flock to Parolin to stall progress. He may be elected as a 'pause' candidate, to see what happens in the aftermath of Francis' changes.
Dark Horse: Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy serves in Gaza. He was the one who answered the phone nightly when Francis called the Christians in Gaza throughout the war. Pizzaballa has been too occupied with his mission in Gaza to tangle in some of the admin business of the Church. We know Francis liked him and his theology. We know he's brave -- he offered himself to Hamas in exchange for the hostages. However, he's not made a lot of statements or done a lot of interviews with the press. He is very well respected, but where he stands on a lot of issues is unknown...mostly because he hasn't had the luxury of discourse when his mission is Gaza. This is a wild card that might happen if the cardinals are in a certain mood.
"We all like this guy. We can't agree on anything else.": Anders Arborelius of Sweden. I've affectionately nicknamed him the Swedish Chef, because he was a Carmelite monk, got called to be a bishop, fell up the ladder, and now he wants to be a monk again so he can cook and watch his mystery TV shows (seriously, he did say this). He handed in his resignation.... then Francis died, so he's stuck being cardinal until this conclave is all over. Being pope would sabotage this, and I totally get why he doesn't want the job...but he might fall up into it again. Also, men who don't want to be pope, end up pope (Francis is the prime example of this -- he waved off the 2005 conclave who wanted him then.) Arborelius is also a convert to Catholicism, so he would be the first non-cradle Catholic to get the post in millennia. He's a Carmelite, so he's fairly mainline Church. His theology is conservative, but not retrograde; he'll talk about the subject, but he's probably not going to push Francis's agenda further.
Wartime Consigliere/"Burn it to the ground" mode: If the cardinals decide to resent efforts to meddle in the election, they may choose someone further 'out there' than Francis to stick it to conservatives. In which case, I think it might be Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg. If you thought Francis was wild, you need to meet this guy. Hollerich has declared Church rules about fornication to be bourgeoisie pearl-clutching. He is not only ok with lady deacons; he's ok with lady priests. He's fine with LGBTQ inclusion and blessings, ending priestly celibacy, giving communion to divorced and remarried people, and wants to work on climate change. You thought Francis was "woke"? Hollerich will make him seem like Naptime Jorge in comparison. This is not going to happen unless there's a particular mood that day. But we've seen stranger things.
Rational follows below:
