#more likely

there are 13 playable classes and (using specifically the cosmology of aramán rather than the PHB) there are 10* playable races:

the 7 races of the shapers (human, orc, dwarf, halfling, gnome, elf, beastfolk*)

demons [mechanically tieflings]

fairykind*

half-orcs

* fae and beastfolk are a broad heading for several different possible species, but we do not know what they all are, so we'll count them each as one for this.

(there are no half-elves and possibly no dragonborn, goliaths or genasi in aramán)

10 x 13 leaves us with roughly 130 possible combinations for Travis's next character.

however, if you took the standard 5.5e subclasses of the 13 classes, removing only the ones already being used by a PC (alive or dead), you'd get 59 subclasses, which actually leaves you with 590 distinct possibilities across race and class/subclass.

however! we can also remove classes and races that are already well represented in campaign 4 and/or that travis has already played in a long-term campaign setting before. so, broadly: barbarians, fighters, sorcerers, rogues, warlocks, wizards, half-orcs, orcs, gnomes, humans. we can also remove halflings as travis tends to play small races in comic relief ways and it isn't really a tone match for how he's approaching the campaign, but I'll leave in dwarves since they're not small in the same way. i also won't remove classes just based on "Travis doesn't generally play full casters" vibes due to table balance leaning towards a healing class being needed and Travis being a very balance and utility forward player

ultimately that takes playable races down to ~5 and classes (counting subclasses) down to ~29, which gives us 145 possible race/class combos.

those three data sets give you a 1/130, 1/145 or 1/590 chance of being right when you make called shots about what the next travis PC may be depending on how specific you want to be in your guess. so you have somewhere between a .76% chance and a .16% chance of accurately guessing