#lliberal

Immigration is an issue that always seems to be reaching a boiling point, yet somehow never gets resolved. There is a good reason for this: for most, the status quo feels acceptable and, more importantly, it serves as a perennial fundraising opportunity for both parties. Democrats tell donors they’re fighting for total amnesty, while Republicans fundraise off promises to secure the border and deport criminals. Every year, the same lines are convincingly delivered, and every year, nothing happens. As far as Washington is concerned, everybody wins.

Trump has upset this careful equilibrium, and for better or worse, is forcing Congress to finally declare its policy preferences, rather than tiptoeing around key details.

This sounds good in theory—a much-deserved kick in the pants to the DC “establishment”—but it is unfortunately occurring on the backs of very real and innocent people, who now face extraordinary fear and uncertainty. The issue must be addressed, but this is not the way to responsibly or humanely govern. Trump has ignited a lasting political conflict, right in the same month his administration must navigate a potential government shutdown, a contentious debt ceiling vote, health insurance reauthorization, and hurricane disaster relief. The timing was clearly political, intended to rally the President’s base, but demonstrates his remarkable inexperience and shortsightedness as he throws an already fragmented Congress into further chaos.

Here is the political starting line, as of Wednesday afternoon:

Trump: The President is clearly aware of his flagging support across the broader electorate, and is determined to keep his core supporters engaged. His much-hyped border wall is unlikely to pass Congress, so he has turned his attention to unilateral options. (A note to my Democratic friends—policies that are enacted by executive order can just as easily be dismantled. The proper legislative process is harder but lasting). Targeting DACA is a political triple-threat: he can rally his anti-immigrant supporters, strike down another piece of Obama’s legacy, and force Congressional Republicans to show their cards. So long as his supporters remain the most active segment of Republican voters, Trump knows the GOP can only stray so far from his lead. To him, it seems, DACA is a solid opportunity to remind them of that fact.

Congressional Republicans: The traditional GOP is in a tight spot, as Trump is forcing them to choose between two bad options. If they enact a legislative version of DACA, they will essentially be codifying an Obama policy that many have previously opposed. Conservative voters have long been suspicious that the Party won’t follow through on tough rhetoric, and will respond viciously to a pro-DACA vote. Vulnerable Republicans can expect withered support and potential primary challenges.

Meanwhile, if the GOP fails to enact a replacement to DACA, the long-term consequences could be catastrophic, as the Party risks losing Hispanic voters for a generation or longer. While they tend to lean more towards the Democratic Party, which is far more aggressive in outreach, on the whole Hispanics have remained surprisingly untethered politically. The DACA decision could help push them over the edge, essentially delivering the key swing states of New Mexico and Nevada—and, one day, perhaps even Texas—to the Democrats. Should this happen, it will become nearly impossible to elect another Republican president.

In normal political circumstances, a president would never put his own Party in this kind of position. Once again, Trump has demonstrated that he is not really operating as a Republican, but rather an unattached force in Washington politics, pursuing his own nebulously defined agenda.

Congressional Democrats: Other than attending protests and offering obligatory attacks on Trump, Democrats have had little to do over the past 8 months. Their Party is deep in the wilderness, and spending as much time fighting itself as the Republicans. This month’s series of difficult votes, however, could give them an opening to seize initiative.

If conservative hard-liners, such as the House Freedom Caucus, demand major spending cuts in exchange for their debt ceiling votes, the Republican leadership may require Democrats to help make up the difference. They will expect concessions of their own, and DACA could be among them. Should that happen, Democrats can claim a critical legislative victory on behalf of Hispanic Americans, even as they remain in the minority.