#internal migration

In the face of sky-high rent and rising food inflation, city dwellers have been fleeing urban centres like Toronto in droves over the past few years, seeking out areas where affordability issues aren't top of mind instead.  Recently, American moving truck company, U-Haul, analyzed the top Canadian migration cities and provinces of 2023 to determine the areas drawing in the highest number of new residents, and it might not come as a surprise to some that Toronto failed to crack the list. Interestingly, the study found that Alberta was the leading growth province for 2023, while its largest market, Calgary was Canada's top growth city based on one-way U-Haul transactions.

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Ruth Ben-Ghiat at Lucid:

"Should I leave the country now for somewhere safer?” “How do you know when it's time to move?" “Where should I go?” Almost every day now, as the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches, I receive queries like these from fellow Americans. The personalized nature of the decision to go into exile means that it is very difficult to counsel people. However, we can learn from the history of such fateful choices, which also teaches us that exile is not a linear path, nor an irreversible one. I have been engaging with the history of émigrés from dictatorships for decades. My interest in studying Fascism was sparked by growing up in Pacific Palisades, California, where the writer Thomas Mann and other famous exiles had sought refuge from Nazism. Over the next century, America became a destination for so many others fleeing dictatorship. Now it may be our turn to experience some form of autocracy. The title of this essay sums up the eternal dilemma of the anti-authoritarian: do I stay and resist, or go into exile? In reality, there is a third option, and as everywhere in the world, it is likely to be the most popular one. You stay put, and keep your head down and your criticism of the government private. That way you and your loved ones can minimize any adverse consequences while you “wait it out.” Only a small percentage of the population leaves the country, or stays and actively resists, not least because these choices pose financial, legal, physical, and other challenges. And yet it is often these minorities who make history, whether by leading the opposition from abroad (as Belarusian politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is doing from Lithuania) or from inside the country, organizing protests or other resistance actions. And in our age of transnational repression, being abroad can still be dangerous for dissidents who persist with political activities.

Yet the questions that the politically active have grappled with have changed little since the dawn of authoritarianism. If all the resisters leave, who is left to fight for freedom? How can I turn my back on my country? “Guilt is exile’s eternal companion,” reflects the writer Hisham Matar, who, as the son of Jaballa Matar, an opponent of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, was forced to follow his compatriots’ fates from abroad and had no information about his imprisoned relatives back home. And if the resisters who stay are silenced, who is left to lead the struggle, document the abuses, and counter the propaganda? Isn’t it more pragmatic to leave and be able to work for freedom rather than sit in jail? Alexi Navalny’s death in a Siberian lager is an example of what can happen to high-profile opponents of the dictator when they do not leave. Navalny could have easily remained abroad after his stay in Germany to recover from a Kremlin poisoning, but he refused to remove himself voluntarily and make it easier for the “thieving little man in his bunker,” as he memorably referred to Vladimir Putin during his 2021 Moscow sentencing, to claim victory over him and his anti-corruption work.

Some people escape one dictatorship by going to another. That might seem strange, and yet geographical proximity or the ability to get residence papers make it a not uncommon choice. Chileans who fled Augusto Pinochet’s military regime after the 1973 coup settled in Brazil’s military regime, or (if they were Communists) in East Germany. Germans found refuge from Nazism in Fascist Italy, and Syrians crossed the border to Turkey as they fled the Assad regime. Some exiles also return home, thinking maybe it won’t be that bad, before leaving again for good. Many people want to know the right time to leave, and history is full of stories of people who did not leave their countries in time to escape persecution. There are good reasons for this. Dictators are impulsive, and love “shock events,” as I refer to them in Strongmen (which has exile as a theme). What is fine today may be grounds for persecution tomorrow, and all bets are off if a state of emergency is declared.

Going into exile also requires money and other things that many individuals do not have: a job offer, the right connections, entry papers, a way to care for loved ones who cannot leave, or a place to stay in another country. Those at elite institutions or multinational/global companies might have more possibilities to move abroad than activists or politicians rooted in local contexts. That’s why we should not assume that those who stay in dictatorships are in denial. The Jewish linguist Viktor Klemperer is a case in point. He remained in Nazi Germany because he could not find a university position abroad (unlike his famous conductor cousin, Otto Klemperer, who moved to Los Angeles). “Don’t think about it, live one’s life, bury oneself in the most private matters!" he wrote in late September 1938, hoping, like other Jews who stayed in Germany, that each new round of persecution would be the last. "Fine resolution, but so difficult to keep.”

As we prepare for some form of autocracy in America, it is no comfort to know that Trump and his zealous and unscrupulous associates have advertised their desire to go after groups of people perennially targeted by authoritarians: immigrants, Muslims, Jews, opposition politicians, the unhoused, LGBTQ+ people, activists, journalists, scientists, and educators. It will be especially dangerous to be a transgender person in America, or anyone involved with reproductive and immigrant rights. American movements in response to autocracy may differ from those of other populations due to the strength of states’ rights here. We are likely to see internal migration instead of exile, with people leaving states where voting, reproductive, LGBTQ+ and other rights are being extinguished.

There's also a history of regional movement in search of freedom in our country that we can build on. The Jim Crow South was a regional authoritarianism in many respects. That’s why the former CEO and President of the NAACP, Cornell William Brooks, states in our 2021 Lucid interview that we might begin to see “Black Southerners who came to New York and Chicago and Detroit” as “refugees; they were fleeing terrorism. And so Black folk are the descendants of these refugees, as well as of enslaved people." While every person contemplating exile has their own unique situation and resources, there is one constant among such departures: when you exit your homeland, you enter into a state of waiting. Waiting for things to get better; waiting for the tyrant to die or, if elections still exist, be voted out; waiting for freedom to arrive so you can return to beloved places and people.

"out"

Violet Miller and Samantha Donndelinger at Uncloseted Media, via Chicago Sun-Times:

Rylee Schermerhorn, an 18-year-old from Indianapolis, Indiana, is spending her final high school days pet-sitting in the afternoons and planning to go to college to study dental hygiene. But as a trans woman, she’s worried about President Donald Trump’s executive orders seeking to ban gender-affirming care for patients under 19 through legal action and withholding of federal funds. It’s why she’s eyeing a move to Illinois, or possibly Michigan, as soon as she finishes school and can afford to. She’s one of many considering moving to haven states as Trump increasingly targets trans people and states like Iowa repeal civil rights protections for the community. “Illinois is one of the few states that’s been standing up against a lot of the conservative push against our community,” she said. “I want to be able to start my life and do it in a place where I know I’m going to be accepted.” Schermerhorn, who started on hormones in September and has been out as trans since 15, said her “whole trans experience has been dictated by this state government.” “I don’t want to wait around and watch my life continue to get worse,” Schermerhorn said. “I wasn’t able to have access to health care until I was 18. Now I’m worried it’s going to get taken away. … I don’t get how they can just change what it means to be an adult.” Despite a federal judge temporarily blocking the order March 4 — which could hold enforcement of the order until the case is finished depending on the federal government’s expected appeal — Schermerhorn is still stocking up on her medicines. “This order proved that, even for just a few weeks, it’s possible for our federal government to disrupt the medical care we rely on,” Schermerhorn said. “They’ve proven they can and will shift the goalposts because this was never about minors. I’m a legal adult and I could have been affected. The legal minimums could easily be raised … to them ultimately taking away all of our healthcare.”

Midwest oasis

About 40% of LGBTQ+ youth reported considering moving to a different state because of laws targeting LGBTQ+ people, according to the Trevor Project’s 2024 U.S. National Survey on the Mental Health of LGBTQ+ Young People, a survey of nearly 19,000 LGBTQ+ people ages 13 to 24. Nearly 20% of trans people in that age range had to cross state lines for medical care because of the policies. There was no exodus, though, as just 4%, or approximately 266,000 youth total, actually moved. But states that passed anti-trans laws aimed at youth saw suicide attempts among trans teens increase by as much as 72% after the bills were signed. Fourteen states and Washington, D.C., have shield laws for gender-affirming care, which protect patients and providers from legal actions spurred by other states’ laws, though Illinois is considered one of the sole havens for displaced trans people in the Midwest. Illinois law also prohibits discrimination based on gender identity by healthcare providers and requires state-regulated insurance plans to cover hormone therapy. Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul vowed last month to protect gender-affirming care in the face of federal funding cuts to hospitals that offered it to people under the age of 19. He and a coalition of attorneys general also secured a win in federal court that directed the government to resume funding that the Trump administration threatened to freeze. But as trans youth are increasingly targeted by executive orders, some providers — such as Lurie Children’s Hospital and University of Illinois Health — have altered or ended certain gender-affirming care programs despite them being protected by state law. [...]

Moving out

Many still fear the worst outcomes, especially in states without shield laws. A 16-year-old high school student from the Western suburbs — who didn’t want to be identified over safety concerns — said their aspirations to double major in STEM and music had already narrowed their college search. But as the orders rolled out, finding a state where they can legally access gender-affirming care — even as an adult — has become a key factor in identifying the ideal college option. “I’m trying to narrow it down to places it won’t be hell to live in,” they said. “That’s my main concern.” After a visit to one dream school in Tennessee, they realized it “wasn’t the environment for me.” “It’s limiting my opportunities, and that’s the worst part,” they said. “As someone with as big of ambitions as I have, it’s hard to think I can’t do this because of my safety.” The high schooler’s trans friends are looking to study in more trans-inclusive countries where they feel they would be guaranteed gender-affirming healthcare, though trans people’s passports have also been targeted by executive orders.

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