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Trump promised he would "defeat inflation." That was the centerpiece of his second campaign. Once in office, as grocery prices continued rising through 2025, he called affordability a "con job." Then in late February 2026, he launched a war in Iran. This is what has happened since.

The gas pump.

On February 26, 2026 — two days before the US-Israel attacks on Iran began — the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States was $2.98, according to AAA data.

As of May 6, the national average is $4.54 per gallon — a 52% increase. That is $1.56 more for every single gallon of gas.

The cause is direct. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway off the coast of Iran through which roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil normally passes — has been effectively closed since the war began. Oil tankers are stranded. Supply is constrained. The International Energy Agency described the resulting disruption as the largest in the history of oil markets. Crude oil hit $112 per barrel in early April.

A brief respite came in mid-April, when prices fell daily for almost two weeks amid signs the conflict might wind down. But prices surged again, climbing 31 cents in a single week.

"Even if there was a true and lasting resolution of the conflict — both sides agree to play nice and truly do commit to keeping Hormuz open — it will still take months to get back to what it was pre-war, if not even longer," Kevin Smith of AAA said. "There will still be a risk premium associated with going through that region."

The state-by-state picture is even grimmer. California drivers are paying $6.06 per gallon — the highest in the nation. Hawaii ($5.64), Washington ($5.61), Oregon ($5.21), and Nevada ($5.15) round out the top five. Ohio has seen the largest state-level increase at $2.06 per gallon above pre-war prices; over 100 counties — mostly in Ohio and Indiana — have seen increases of $2 or more. In Kenton County, Kentucky, prices have nearly doubled. Georgia has the lowest state increase, partly because the state suspended its 33-cent gas tax in mid-March for 60 days.

Beyond gas, jet fuel prices have surged. Airlines have raised fares. Spirit Airlines has shut down.

The grocery store.

The food supply chain is energy-intensive at every step. Tractors run on diesel. Transport trucks run on diesel. Refrigeration uses electricity generated by fuel. Feed for livestock costs more when fuel costs more. Packaging and processing are both affected.

According to the Independent Grocers Alliance, fuel-related costs make up 15 to 30 percent of the total cost of food. A sustained 10-15% increase in fuel prices can lead to a 2-4% increase in retail food prices.

But there is a lag. The food supply chain typically takes three to six months to fully pass commodity and energy price shocks through to retail shelf prices. Meaning: much of the pain from the Iran war has not yet arrived at checkout.

The USDA revised its 2026 food price forecast to 3.1% growth — nearly double its January projection. Food-at-home prices are already 2.7% higher than March 2025. Beef prices in March 2026 were 12.1% above March 2025, and are forecast to increase another 6.3% over the rest of the year.

The USDA identified seven food categories expected to rise faster than their 20-year historical averages: beef and veal, fish and seafood, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and a catch-all "other foods" category.

Fertilizer costs have risen 30-40% for some farmers since the war began. A Purdue University analysis projects that a sustained Iran war could add three to six percentage points to grocery inflation over the next 12-18 months.

The Commerce Department's March Personal Consumption Expenditure report found overall US inflation hit a monthly rate of 0.7% and an annual rate of 3.5% — a three-year high.

The bigger picture.

Michigan State food economist David Ortega noted that COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, years of bird flu, and Trump's first-term tariffs were all shocks to the system. Each time, he said, prices went up. "Very rarely do food prices fall, and when they do, it's very short lived."

The US dollar depreciated roughly 10% from early January 2025 to the end of April 2026 — making imported goods more expensive on top of everything else.

The USDA announced $12 billion in one-time payments to farmers to help offset losses. CoBank analysts said that translates to roughly $44 per corn acre — significantly short of what many farmers need.

Trump has expressed confidence that when the war ends, gas prices will "drop like a rock." Experts say that even under the most optimistic scenario, the road back will be long. And the road forward, for now, leads to higher prices at every stop.

The Washington Pretzel | US PoliTickle