#hanaguild

Summary: What if Salem Died in RWBY

Salem’s permanent death creates a power vacuum, shattering the unity of her Inner Circle and allowing its members to pursue their own ambitions. Two primary factions emerge: one led by Cinder Fall, who seeks to become a tyrannical queen by acquiring all Maiden powers, and another led by Arthur Watts, who aims to reshape Remnant through technological dominance. Other characters and groups either align with these factions or form independent alliances, leading to a complex power struggle.

Cinder’s Faction:

Core Members: Cinder Fall (leader), Mercury Black (enforcer), Emerald Sustrai (spy), Roman Torchwick (crime lord), Neopolitan (Neo, assassin).

Goals: Cinder pursues Maiden powers to rule Remnant, focusing on consolidating power in Vale and Mistral. Her leadership is manipulative and ruthless but volatile, relying on intimidation.

Recruits: Likely includes Lil’ Miss Malachite (Spider Syndicate), Junior Xiong (Xiong Family), Vermillion Raddock (artifact seeker), Team SMMK (rogue Huntsmen), and possibly Sienna Khan (White Fang).

Strengths: Strong combat power (Maiden abilities, skilled fighters) and criminal networks in Vale/Mistral.

Weaknesses: Cinder’s betrayals (e.g., Neo, Watts) risk defections, and her focus on Maidens may neglect broader strategy.

Watts’ Faction:

Core Members: Arthur Watts (leader), Tyrian Callows (assassin), Hazel Rainart (tank).

Goals: Watts seeks to control Atlas’s technological infrastructure, creating a technocratic regime. His leadership is pragmatic and strategic but arrogant.

Recruits: Likely includes Fort Lee (tech CEO), Dr. Merlot (Grimm/AI scientist), the Atlas conspiracy (Bram Thormmane, Amoncio Glass, Hanlon Fifestone, Olive Harper), and possibly Gillian and Jax Asturias (The Crown).

Strengths: Technological superiority (hacking, robotics, Grimm experiments) and strategic planning.

Weaknesses: Limited combat power compared to Cinder’s Maiden abilities; Watts’ arrogance may alienate allies like Tyrian or Hazel.

Independent Factions:

White Fang (Adam Taurus, Sienna Khan, others): Likely operates as a militant Faunus rights group, clashing with both factions. Adam’s obsession with Blake may disrupt Cinder’s plans.

Branwen Tribe (Raven Branwen, Vernal, Shay D. Mann): Raven’s independent raids and Maiden powers make her a wildcard, avoiding allegiance to either side.

Hana Guild (Abigail Pyre): Could reform as a rogue criminal group, stealing artifacts and playing both sides.

Lady Beat (Beatrix Browning): Manipulates factions for personal gain, potentially staying neutral or aligning with Spider.

The Crown (Argento Pocoron, Carmine Esclados): May pursue Vacuan monarchy independently if the Asturias twins join Watts, engaging in guerrilla attacks.

Conflicts and Outcomes:

Cinder vs. Watts: Cinder’s pursuit of Maidens clashes with Watts’ control of Atlas (Winter Maiden’s location). Watts uses hacking and tech (Merlot, Fort Lee) to counter Cinder’s magic, while Cinder deploys Neo and Emerald for infiltration. The conflict is a war of attrition: brute force vs. strategy.

Independent Factions’ Impact: The White Fang and Branwen Tribe create chaos, weakening both sides. Smaller groups like the Hana Guild or The Crown act as spoilers, aligning or betraying based on self-interest.

Possible Outcomes:

Cinder’s Victory: Securing all Maiden powers could overwhelm Watts, but defections may undermine her rule.

Watts’ Victory: Controlling Atlas and developing advanced weapons could outmaneuver Cinder, but his combat weakness leaves him vulnerable.

Stalemate/Fragmentation: Independent factions prevent total victory, fracturing Remnant into competing groups.

What if Salem Died Overview of the Power Vacuum

Salem’s death removes the overarching goal of collecting the Relics and destroying the world, which was the primary force binding her Inner Circle. Without her, the members are free to pursue their personal ambitions, but their differing personalities, goals, and relationships make it unlikely for them to work cohesively as a single unit. The document highlights two natural leaders emerging: Cinder Fall, driven by a desire for power and to become a queen-like figure, and Arthur Watts, motivated to reshape the world in his image, leveraging his technological genius. Other characters will align based on their own goals, loyalties, or promises of power.

The analysis will group characters into Cinder’s Faction, Watts’ Faction, or Independent/Other Factions, considering their motivations, past affiliations, and compatibility with each leader’s vision. I’ll also address the Atlas conspiracy, Fort Lee, Dr. Merlot, and other notable characters from the document, ensuring a comprehensive breakdown.

Cinder’s Faction

Core Members: Cinder Fall (Leader), Mercury Black, Emerald Sustrai, Roman Torchwick, Neopolitan (Neo)

Cinder’s Goals and Leadership Style:

Motivation: Cinder is driven by a deep-seated desire for power, stemming from her abusive upbringing at the Glass Unicorn (Pages 50-51). She seeks to be feared and revered, aiming to become a queen-like figure by acquiring all Maiden powers. Without Salem, Cinder is no longer bound to serve a higher authority and can pursue her ambition to dominate Remnant. The document notes her jealousy of those with natural talents and her intolerance of being “under someone’s thumb” (Page 51), suggesting she would aggressively seek to consolidate power.

Leadership Style: Cinder is manipulative, ruthless, and power-hungry, but her emotional volatility and need for control make her a polarizing leader. She demands loyalty but struggles to inspire it genuinely, often resorting to intimidation or coercion (e.g., her betrayal of Watts and Neo, Pages 49, 160). Her faction would appeal to those who crave power, fear her, or have personal loyalty to her.

Plans Without Salem: Cinder would likely continue her pursuit of the Maiden powers, targeting the remaining Maidens (Spring, Summer, Winter) to become the ultimate authority in Remnant. Destroying Beacon might still be on her agenda to eliminate Ozpin’s influence and secure the Relic of Choice, but her focus would shift to consolidating power in Vale or Mistral, where she has operated successfully. Her ultimate goal is to rule as a tyrannical queen, using her Maiden powers and subordinates to enforce her will.

Core Members’ Roles:

Mercury Black:

Motivation: Mercury is a skilled assassin raised in violence by his father, Marcus, who stole his Semblance (Pages 134-135). He lacks personal ambition beyond survival and thriving in chaos, making him a loyal enforcer. His brutal honesty and lack of attachment to Cinder emotionally (Page 135) suggest he stays with her for the promise of power and security.

Role: Mercury would serve as Cinder’s primary muscle, handling combat and assassination missions. His ability to fight experienced Huntsmen like Yang and Pyrrha (Page 134) makes him invaluable for taking out rivals or Maidens. His prosthetic legs and combat prowess ensure he can execute Cinder’s orders efficiently.

Loyalty: Mercury’s loyalty is pragmatic, not emotional. He might defect to Watts if offered a better deal, but his familiarity with Cinder and her faction makes him likely to stay initially.

Emerald Sustrai:

Motivation: Emerald is driven by a misguided loyalty to Cinder, believing Cinder cares for her (Page 135). Her Semblance, which creates hallucinations, is useful for manipulation and deception (Page 135). However, her eventual defection from Salem’s group after learning of Salem’s true goal (Page 109) suggests she could waver if Cinder’s actions become too extreme.

Role: Emerald would be Cinder’s spy and manipulator, using her Semblance to deceive enemies, gather intelligence, or create chaos. Her skills complement Cinder’s need for covert operations to locate Maidens or undermine rivals.

Loyalty: Emerald’s emotional attachment to Cinder keeps her loyal, but her moral qualms could lead to conflict if Cinder’s pursuit of power becomes too destructive. She might eventually defect if Cinder betrays her trust, as seen with Neo (Page 160).

Roman Torchwick:

Motivation: Roman is a self-serving crime lord who values wealth, control, and his partnership with Neo (Pages 163-165). He joined Cinder originally because he saw her as a winning bet (Page 166), but his loyalty is conditional. His hatred for teamwork and preference for working with Neo (Page 165) suggest he would only stay with Cinder if it benefits him.

Role: Roman would manage Cinder’s criminal operations, such as Dust thefts or black-market dealings, leveraging his experience as a Gentleman Thief (Page 165). His tactical pragmatism and ability to manipulate situations (Page 164) make him ideal for organizing Cinder’s power base in cities like Vale or Mistral.

Loyalty: Roman’s loyalty is tied to Neo and his own survival. He might tolerate Cinder’s leadership for the promise of power, but if Watts offers a better deal or if Cinder threatens Neo, Roman could betray her.

Neopolitan (Neo):

Motivation: Neo’s primary drive is her loyalty to Roman, whom she sees as her only true ally (Pages 155, 164). After Roman’s death in the canon timeline, she seeks revenge against Ruby (Pages 156-157), but in this scenario, Roman is alive, keeping her grounded. Her Semblance, which allows her to create illusions and, in some contexts, physical constructs (Page 157), makes her a versatile asset.

Role: Neo would be Cinder’s stealth operative and assassin, using her illusions to infiltrate, deceive, or eliminate targets. Her graceful fighting style and ability to take down strong opponents like Yang (Page 151) make her a key player in Cinder’s plans to hunt Maidens or sabotage rivals.

Loyalty: Neo’s loyalty is primarily to Roman, not Cinder. She would follow Roman’s lead, staying with Cinder only if he does. If Cinder betrays Roman or if Watts offers a better deal, Neo could switch sides, especially given her history of being betrayed by Cinder (Page 160).

Potential Recruits for Cinder’s Faction:

Lil’ Miss Malachite and the Spider Syndicate (Pages 81-84):

Motivation: Lil’ Miss is a gangster leader in Mistral who values information and loyalty over money (Page 84). Her Spider Syndicate deals in espionage and organized crime, making them a natural fit for Cinder’s criminal empire.

Why Join Cinder?: Cinder’s operations in Mistral (e.g., her actions during the Battle of Haven, Page 46) align with Lil’ Miss’s territory. Cinder could offer Lil’ Miss power and influence in exchange for her spy network and resources. Lil’ Miss’s daughters, Melanie and Miltia Malachite, could also be leveraged due to their combat skills and training at Lady Browning’s Academy (Page 83).

Role: Lil’ Miss would provide intelligence and logistical support, managing Cinder’s operations in Mistral. Her daughters could serve as enforcers or bodyguards.

Likelihood: High. Lil’ Miss’s pragmatic approach and lack of moral qualms make her a good match for Cinder’s ruthless leadership. However, her emphasis on loyalty could cause friction if Cinder’s betrayals (e.g., Neo, Watts) become known.

Junior Xiong and the Xiong Family (Pages 76-79):

Motivation: Junior is a crime lord in Vale who manages a club and leads the Xiong Family (Page 78). He’s pragmatic, easily intimidated, and motivated by profit and survival (Page 79).

Why Join Cinder?: Junior has worked with Cinder before (e.g., during the Dust thefts in Vale, Page 78) and fears her power. With Roman already in Cinder’s faction, Junior might join to avoid conflict and gain protection from Watts’ technological threats. Cinder could promise him control over Vale’s underworld.

Role: Junior would handle Cinder’s operations in Vale, coordinating Dust thefts and managing her criminal network. His henchmen could serve as foot soldiers.

Likelihood: Moderate. Junior’s fear of Cinder and past collaboration make him likely to join, but his gullibility and preference for hiding behind henchmen (Page 78) could make him unreliable. He might defect to Watts if offered a better deal.

Vermillion Raddock (Pages 89-90):

Motivation: Vermillion is a dangerous criminal affiliated with Salem’s Inner Circle and the Hana Guild, seeking magical artifacts (Page 89). His Semblance, Semblance Share, allows him to enhance allies’ abilities, making him a strategic asset.

Why Join Cinder?: Vermillion’s pursuit of magical artifacts aligns with Cinder’s quest for Maiden powers, as both involve seeking powerful relics. Cinder could offer him access to her Maiden powers or promise him artifacts in exchange for loyalty. His prior affiliation with Salem’s Inner Circle (Page 108) suggests he’s comfortable working under a powerful leader like Cinder.

Role: Vermillion would be a combat and strategic asset, using his Semblance to boost Cinder’s allies (e.g., Mercury, Neo) during battles against Maidens or Watts’ forces. His experience with the Hana Guild could help Cinder navigate Mistral’s criminal underworld.

Likelihood: High. Vermillion’s lack of loyalty to any specific cause and his power-hungry nature make him a natural fit for Cinder’s faction, especially if she offers him artifacts or power.

The Wave (Former Members: Sil, Marton, Mina Lavender, Khaki) (Pages 84-88, 95, 110-111):

Motivation: The Wave was a Mistral-based crime syndicate dealing in stolen goods and magical artifacts (Page 85). After Lemon’s death and the group’s disbandment (Page 87), its surviving members (Team SMMK: Sil, Marton, Mina Lavender, Khaki) are rogue Huntsmen with no clear allegiance.

Why Join Cinder?: Team SMMK’s lack of loyalty to the Wave (Page 111) and their criminal background make them prime candidates for Cinder’s faction. Cinder could offer them wealth, power, or magical artifacts, appealing to their self-indulgent and theatrical nature (Page 95). Their rivalry with Team SAFR (Page 96) could motivate them to join Cinder to settle scores.

Role: Team SMMK would serve as versatile operatives, with Marton’s Dust Nullification Semblance and club (Page 111) providing tactical advantages in combat. They could handle missions involving theft, espionage, or artifact recovery in Mistral.

Likelihood: High. Their criminal tendencies and lack of loyalty make them likely to join Cinder for profit and power. However, their self-indulgent nature could lead to conflicts with Cinder’s controlling leadership.

Sienna Khan (If Alive) (Pages 97-100):

Motivation: As the former High Leader of the White Fang, Sienna advocated for violent resistance against human prejudice (Page 99). If she survived Adam’s coup (Page 98), she would likely seek to rebuild the White Fang and continue her fight for Faunus rights.

Why Join Cinder?: Sienna’s violent ideology aligns with Cinder’s ruthless methods. Cinder could offer Sienna resources and power to restore the White Fang, using their forces to bolster her own. However, Sienna’s focus on Faunus rights might clash with Cinder’s self-centered goals.

Role: Sienna could lead a White Fang contingent under Cinder, providing fighters and ideological support. Her Cerberus Whip and combat skills (Page 100) would make her a formidable ally in battles against Watts or Huntsmen.

Likelihood: Moderate. Sienna’s pride and commitment to the Faunus cause might make her wary of Cinder’s manipulative nature. She could join temporarily for resources but might break away to form an independent White Fang faction.

Watts’ Faction

Core Members: Arthur Watts (Leader), Tyrian Callows, Hazel Rainart

Watts’ Goals and Leadership Style:

Motivation: Watts is a disgraced Atlesian scientist driven by a desire for revenge against Ironwood and a need to prove his genius (Pages 118-120). With Salem gone, he is free to pursue his goal of remaking the world in his image, likely through technological dominance and control over Atlas’s systems. His expertise in hacking, virus creation, and robotics (Pages 117-120) positions him as a mastermind who seeks to outsmart his enemies rather than overpower them.

Leadership Style: Watts is formal, sophisticated, and pragmatic, but also arrogant and condescending (Page 119). He values intelligence and efficiency, making him appealing to those who share his disdain for emotional or chaotic leadership (like Cinder’s). His faction would attract those who prioritize strategy, technology, or revenge against Atlas.

Plans Without Salem: Watts would likely focus on seizing control of Atlas’s technological infrastructure, using his hacking skills to manipulate Mantle’s security network (Page 121) and create a new world order under his control. He might aim to undermine Huntsman Academies and establish a technocratic regime, leveraging his knowledge of Atlas’s systems and his disdain for Ironwood’s leadership (Page 119).

Core Members’ Roles:

Tyrian Callows:

Motivation: Tyrian is a sadistic serial killer and scorpion Faunus who worships destruction, seeing Salem as “destruction incarnate” (Page 145). Without Salem, he might latch onto Watts as a new figure to serve, drawn to Watts’ vision of chaos through technological upheaval. His Ax-Crazy personality and love for violence (Page 142) make him a dangerous ally.

Role: Tyrian would be Watts’ primary enforcer and assassin, using his speed, strength, and scorpion tail (Page 146) to eliminate threats like Huntsmen or Cinder’s allies. His ability to evade detection (Page 147) makes him ideal for covert operations or terrorizing enemies.

Loyalty: Tyrian’s loyalty to Salem was based on her destructive goals. Watts’ pragmatic villainy might not fully satisfy Tyrian’s bloodlust, but his promise of chaos and power could keep Tyrian loyal temporarily. Tyrian might defect if Watts’ plans become too cerebral or if Cinder offers more opportunities for violence.

Hazel Rainart:

Motivation: Hazel’s primary drive is his hatred for Ozpin, whom he blames for his sister Gretchen’s death at Beacon (Pages 129-132). His Semblance, which blocks pain and allows him to supercharge with Dust (Page 125), makes him a formidable fighter. His aversion to unnecessary violence (Page 127) and eventual Heel-Face Turn in the canon timeline (Page 129) suggest he might struggle with Watts’ ruthless pragmatism.

Role: Hazel would serve as Watts’ tank, using his immense strength and pain resistance to overpower enemies in direct combat. His strategic mind could assist Watts in planning attacks on Atlas or Huntsman Academies.

Loyalty: Hazel’s inclusion in Watts’ faction is tentative, as his hatred for Ozpin might not align with Watts’ technological goals. He could join Cinder instead, especially if she targets Ozpin or Huntsman Academies. His moral qualms might lead him to defect or form an independent faction focused on destroying Ozpin’s legacy.

Potential Recruits for Watts’ Faction:

Fort Lee (Pages 59-62):

Motivation: Fort Lee was a theatrical CEO of Starhead Industrial Company and a member of the Silver Bullet Brotherhood, obsessed with dramatic flair and technological power (Page 61). His cybernetic enhancements, arm cannon, and Shadow Trap Semblance (Page 60) align with Watts’ technological focus.

Why Join Watts?: Fort Lee’s love for advanced technology and his leadership of a company involved in robotics (Page 60) make him a natural ally for Watts. Watts could offer Fort Lee access to Atlas’s tech or the chance to rebuild his industrial empire. Fort Lee’s dramatic personality might clash with Watts’ pragmatism, but their shared interest in technology would bridge the gap.

Role: Fort Lee would develop and deploy advanced weapons or drones for Watts, enhancing his technological arsenal. His combat skills and Semblance could be used in battles against Cinder’s forces or Atlas’s military.

Likelihood: High. Fort Lee’s technological expertise and theatrical nature make him a strong fit for Watts’ vision of a tech-driven world. His status as deceased in the canon timeline is irrelevant in this scenario, assuming he’s alive.

Dr. Merlot (Pages 112-114):

Motivation: Dr. Merlot is a scientist obsessed with Grimm and artificial intelligence, conducting experiments to create mutant Grimm and advanced androids (Page 113). His disregard for human life and focus on scientific achievement (Page 114) align with Watts’ intellectual arrogance.

Why Join Watts?: Merlot’s fascination with AI and Grimm experimentation complements Watts’ hacking and robotics expertise. Watts could offer Merlot resources to continue his experiments, promising him a role in shaping a new world order. Their shared disdain for Atlas’s leadership (Page 114 for Merlot, Page 119 for Watts) makes them natural allies.

Role: Merlot would lead Watts’ research and development, creating mutant Grimm or androids to bolster his forces. His knowledge of Grimm could counter Cinder’s Maiden powers or Huntsman threats.

Likelihood: Very High. Merlot’s scientific mindset and lack of moral constraints make him an ideal partner for Watts. Their collaboration could lead to devastating technological and biological weapons.

Atlas Conspiracy (Bram Thormmane, Amoncio Glass, Hanlon Fifestone, Olive Harper) (Pages 12-13, 29-32, 70-73):

Motivation:

Bram Thormmane: A Huntsman and leader of a conspiracy against Ironwood, motivated by resentment for not being chosen for a higher role (Page 31). His Trajectory Control Semblance and leadership skills (Page 30) make him a strategic asset.

Amoncio Glass: An Atlas elite involved in shady businesses, seeking power through military technology (Page 12). His wealth and connections make him valuable.

Hanlon Fifestone: A former Atlas soldier and union leader with a Raw Emotion Semblance, aiming to reduce tensions between Atlas and Mantle (Page 71). His idealism could conflict with Watts’ pragmatism.

Olive Harper: A mole in the Atlas Military, working with Thormmane to undermine Ironwood (Page 31). Her loyalty is to Thormmane, not ideology.

Why Join Watts?: The Atlas conspiracy’s shared goal of undermining Ironwood aligns perfectly with Watts’ vendetta (Page 119). Watts could offer Thormmane leadership in his new regime, Glass access to military tech, Fifestone a platform for his social reforms, and Harper a chance to continue her covert operations. Their familiarity with Atlas’s systems makes them ideal for Watts’ technological takeover.

Role:

Thormmane: Strategic commander, leading Watts’ military operations against Atlas or Cinder’s forces. His Semblance enhances ranged attacks, complementing Watts’ tech.

Glass: Financial and logistical support, using his wealth and connections to fund Watts’ projects and secure tech.

Fifestone: Propaganda and morale leader, using his Raw Emotion Semblance to rally support or destabilize enemies.

Harper: Spy and infiltrator, manipulating Atlas’s systems to Watts’ advantage.

Likelihood: Very High. The conspiracy’s anti-Ironwood stance and technological focus make them a perfect fit for Watts. Fifestone’s idealism might cause friction, but Watts’ promise of reform could keep him in line temporarily.

Gillian Asturias and Jax Asturias (Pages 64-66, 73-75):

Motivation: The Asturias twins are former Shade Academy Huntsmen with royal ambitions, believing they are descendants of Vacuo’s first king (Page 75). Gillian’s Aura Siphon Semblance and Jax’s Mind Control Semblance (Pages 66, 74) make them powerful allies. Their affiliation with Salem’s Inner Circle (Page 108) shows their willingness to work with ambitious leaders.

Why Join Watts?: Watts’ vision of a new world order could appeal to the twins’ desire to restore the Vacuan monarchy. His technological resources could enhance their Semblances, especially Jax’s Mind Control, for large-scale manipulation. Their prior affiliation with Salem suggests they’d align with a strategic leader like Watts over Cinder’s volatile leadership.

Role: Gillian would be a combat and support asset, using her Aura Siphon to weaken enemies or boost allies. Jax would manipulate and control key figures (e.g., Huntsmen, political leaders) to expand Watts’ influence. Their leadership of The Crown (Page 65) could bring additional forces to Watts’ side.

Likelihood: High. The twins’ ambitions and Semblances align with Watts’ strategic approach. However, Jax’s arrogance and delusions of grandeur (Page 75) might lead to conflicts with Watts’ own ego.

Independent/Other Factions

Some characters and groups may not align with either Cinder or Watts due to their own agendas, moral conflicts, or lack of compatibility. These factions could operate independently or form new alliances.

The White Fang (Adam Taurus, Fennec Albain, Corsac Albain, Trifa, Deery) (Pages 1-6, 56-58, 94, 97-100):

Motivation: The White Fang is a Faunus rights organization turned militant under Sienna Khan and later Adam Taurus (Page 98). Adam’s obsessive vendetta against Blake and humanity (Page 5) makes him a wildcard, while Fennec, Corsac, Trifa, and Deery are loyal to the Faunus cause but vary in their extremism.

Why Independent?: Adam’s violent, possessive personality and takeover of the White Fang (Page 7) suggest he would reject both Cinder and Watts, preferring to lead his own faction. His Semblance, Moonslice, and combat skills (Page 6) make him a formidable leader. Fennec and Corsac’s manipulative nature (Page 58) could see them trying to rebuild the White Fang independently, while Trifa and Deery’s loyalty to the cause (Pages 94, 56) might keep them with Adam or a reformed White Fang under Sienna (if alive).

Role: The White Fang could operate as a terrorist group, targeting human institutions and possibly clashing with both Cinder and Watts. Adam’s obsession with Blake could lead to attacks on Team RWBY, complicating Cinder’s plans.

Likelihood: High. Adam’s ego and the White Fang’s ideological focus make them unlikely to submit to Cinder or Watts. They might form temporary alliances with either faction for resources but would prioritize their own agenda.

Branwen Tribe (Raven Branwen, Vernal, Shay D. Mann) (Pages 33-34, 91-92, 100-102):

Motivation: The Branwen Tribe is an outlaw gang led by Raven Branwen, surviving by raiding villages (Page 34). Vernal, a decoy Spring Maiden, and Shay, a bandit, follow Raven’s pragmatic leadership (Pages 91, 101). Raven’s distrust of authority (Page 124) and focus on her tribe’s survival make her a wildcard.

Why Independent?: Raven’s refusal to bow to Salem (Page 124) and her focus on her tribe’s autonomy suggest she would reject both Cinder and Watts. Her Maiden powers (if she retains them) make her a significant threat. Vernal’s loyalty to Raven (Page 92) and Shay’s incompetence (Page 103) tie them to her leadership.

Role: The Branwen Tribe would continue raiding and avoiding larger conflicts, potentially clashing with Cinder or Watts if their territories overlap. Raven might pursue her own agenda, possibly seeking Relics or Maiden powers for her tribe’s benefit.

Likelihood: Very High. Raven’s independence and power make her unlikely to join either faction. She might negotiate temporary alliances but would prioritize her tribe’s survival.

Hana Guild (Vermillion Raddock, Abigail Pyre) (Pages 9-10, 67-69, 89-90):

Motivation: The Hana Guild is a Mistral-based crime syndicate dealing in narcotics and magical artifacts (Page 67). Vermillion is already considered for Cinder’s faction, but Abigail Pyre, a former assassin with an Ethereal Hand Semblance (Page 10), could operate independently if she survived her canon death (Page 9).

Why Independent?: Abigail’s untrustworthy and mischievous nature (Page 10) suggests she might avoid both Cinder and Watts, preferring to work alone or reform the Hana Guild. Her Semblance makes her adept at pickpocketing and covert operations, ideal for a rogue criminal.

Role: Abigail could lead a revived Hana Guild, focusing on artifact theft and avoiding direct conflict with Cinder or Watts. She might target both factions for their resources, using her Semblance to steal artifacts or intel.

Likelihood: Moderate. Abigail’s criminal nature makes her a potential recruit for Cinder, but her independence and survival instincts could lead her to form a separate faction, especially if she distrusts Cinder’s volatility or Watts’ arrogance.

Beatrix Browning (Lady Beat) (Pages 27-28):

Motivation: Lady Beat is a former headmistress and Spider member who trained Neo and values psychological manipulation (Page 28). Her allegiance to Lil’ Miss Malachite (Page 28) ties her to the Spider Syndicate, but her independent streak suggests she could break away.

Why Independent?: Lady Beat’s focus on self-preservation and her belief in hiding her Semblance (Page 27) make her unlikely to fully commit to Cinder or Watts. Her psychological expertise could make her a dangerous manipulator working behind the scenes.

Role: Lady Beat could operate as a rogue agent, manipulating both factions for her own gain or reforming her academy to train new operatives. She might ally with Lil’ Miss but could also strike out on her own.

Likelihood: Moderate. Her ties to Spider make her a potential recruit for Cinder, but her cunning and independence suggest she’d prefer to play both sides or remain neutral.

Argento Pocoron and The Crown (Pages 13-15):

Motivation: Argento is a pig Faunus and former Huntsman loyal to The Crown, led by the Asturias twins (Page 14). His support for their royal ambitions and willingness to kidnap for their cause (Page 15) tie him to their goals, but without Gillian and Jax (who may join Watts), he could lead The Crown independently.

Why Independent?: If Gillian and Jax join Watts, Argento might take over The Crown to continue their Vacuan restoration plans. His Semblance, Lag, and combat skills (Page 15) make him capable of leading a small faction.

Role: Argento could lead The Crown in guerrilla attacks against Vacuo’s government or other factions, seeking to establish a new monarchy. He might clash with Cinder or Watts if their plans threaten Vacuo.

Likelihood: Moderate. Argento’s loyalty to The Crown makes him likely to follow Gillian and Jax to Watts’ faction, but if they split, he could lead a splinter group to pursue their original goals.

Carmine Esclados (Pages 35-40):

Motivation: Carmine is a former Huntress who deserted Atlas to join The Crown, valuing individual freedom and loyalty to Gillian Asturias (Page 38). Her Semblance and combat skills make her a strong fighter (Page 37).

Why Independent?: Carmine’s emphasis on freedom and her desertion from Atlas (Page 38) suggest she might reject both Cinder’s tyranny and Watts’ technocracy. Her loyalty to Gillian could tie her to Watts’ faction, but if Gillian joins Watts, Carmine might break away to protect her own ideals.

Role: Carmine could lead a rogue group of former Huntsmen, focusing on protecting Vacuo or pursuing personal freedom. Her combat prowess would make her a significant threat to both factions.

Likelihood: Moderate. Her loyalty to Gillian makes her likely to join Watts, but her love for freedom could lead her to form an independent faction if she distrusts Watts’ motives.

Analysis of Faction Dynamics

Cinder’s Faction Strengths:

Combat Power: Cinder’s Maiden powers, combined with Mercury, Neo, and Vermillion’s combat skills, make her faction formidable in direct confrontations. The White Fang (if Sienna joins) and Spider Syndicate add numbers and criminal expertise.

Criminal Networks: Roman, Junior, and Lil’ Miss provide access to Vale and Mistral’s underworld, giving Cinder resources and intelligence.

Weaknesses: Cinder’s volatile leadership and tendency to betray allies (e.g., Neo, Watts) could cause defections. Her focus on Maiden powers might distract from broader strategic goals, making her vulnerable to Watts’ calculated approach.

Watts’ Faction Strengths:

Technological Superiority: Watts, Fort Lee, and Merlot’s expertise in hacking, robotics, and Grimm experimentation give them an edge in controlling Atlas’s infrastructure and creating advanced weapons.

Strategic Planning: Watts’ pragmatism, combined with Thormmane’s leadership and the Asturias twins’ Semblances, makes his faction adept at long-term planning and manipulation.

Weaknesses: Watts’ arrogance and condescension (Page 119) could alienate allies like Tyrian or Hazel, who crave action over strategy. His lack of raw combat power compared to Cinder’s Maiden abilities could be a liability in direct conflicts.

Independent Factions’ Impact:

The White Fang, led by Adam or Sienna, could disrupt both Cinder and Watts by targeting human institutions, creating chaos that complicates their plans.

The Branwen Tribe’s raids could destabilize regions, forcing Cinder or Watts to divert resources to protect their territories.

Smaller factions like the Hana Guild, Lady Beat, or The Crown could act as wildcards, allying with or betraying either side based on their own interests.

Likely Conflicts and Outcomes

Cinder vs. Watts:

Cinder’s pursuit of Maiden powers would pit her against Watts if he controls Atlas, where the Winter Maiden resides. Watts’ technological arsenal, bolstered by Merlot and Fort Lee, could counter Cinder’s magic, but her raw power and criminal allies give her an edge in direct combat.

Watts might use his hacking skills to sabotage Cinder’s operations, while Cinder could deploy Neo and Emerald to infiltrate Watts’ bases. The conflict would likely be a prolonged war of attrition, with Watts’ strategy clashing against Cinder’s brute force.

Independent Factions’ Role:

The White Fang could exploit the chaos to attack both factions, weakening their hold on key regions. Adam’s obsession with Blake might lead to reckless attacks on Team RWBY, inadvertently aiding Watts by distracting Cinder.

Raven’s Branwen Tribe could play both sides, offering temporary alliances to whichever faction offers the most resources. Her Maiden powers make her a significant threat if she engages directly.

Smaller factions like the Hana Guild or The Crown could tip the balance by aligning with one side or acting as spoilers, stealing resources or artifacts.

Potential Outcomes:

Cinder’s Victory: If Cinder secures all Maiden powers, her faction could overwhelm Watts’ technological advantages. However, her betrayals might lead to defections (e.g., Neo, Roman), weakening her long-term control.

Watts’ Victory: If Watts consolidates control over Atlas and develops advanced weapons with Merlot and Fort Lee, he could outmaneuver Cinder’s chaotic leadership. However, his lack of combat power might leave him vulnerable to Cinder’s direct assaults.

Stalemate/Fragmentation: The presence of independent factions like the White Fang and Branwen Tribe could prevent either side from achieving total victory, leading to a fractured Remnant where multiple groups vie for control.

Conclusion

In the absence of Salem, Cinder Fall and Arthur Watts emerge as the primary leaders of two opposing factions, each leveraging their unique strengths and allies to pursue their ambitions. Cinder’s faction, built on raw power and criminal networks, includes Mercury, Emerald, Roman, Neo, and potentially Lil’ Miss Malachite, Junior Xiong, Vermillion Raddock, Team SMMK, and Sienna Khan. Watts’ faction, centered on technological dominance and strategic planning, comprises Tyrian, Hazel, Fort Lee, Dr. Merlot, the Atlas conspiracy (Thormmane, Glass, Fifestone, Harper), and possibly the Asturias twins. Independent factions like the White Fang, Branwen Tribe, Hana Guild, Lady Beat, and The Crown could disrupt both sides, creating a complex power struggle.

Theories on Why Salem Didn’t Control More Villain Factions or Manipulate More Than Six People to Work Together Effectively

Using the canon details from the provided RWBY wiki entry on Salem's Inner Circle, I'll theorize why Salem, despite her millennia-long campaign and immense power, limited her direct control to a small group (six key members: Cinder, Tyrian, Hazel, Watts, Vermillion, and later the Asturias siblings) and didn’t consolidate more villain factions or manipulate a larger network to work cohesively. These theories are grounded in her goals, personality, and strategic constraints as described.

1. Salem’s Need for Absolute Control Limits the Size of Her Inner Circle

Canon Basis: Salem’s warning to her followers—“The moment you put your desires before my own... they will be lost to you. This isn’t a threat, this is simply the truth. The path to your desires is only found... through me”—reveals her demand for unwavering loyalty. She prioritizes absolute obedience over managing a sprawling network, as a larger group increases the risk of betrayal or conflicting agendas.

Theory: Salem deliberately keeps her inner circle small to maintain tight control. Manipulating more than a handful of people risks dissent, as seen with Hazel’s defection after learning her true goal (summoning the Gods to destroy Remnant) or Cinder’s repeated disobedience (e.g., pursuing Penny against orders). A larger group could amplify such issues, especially since each member has personal motivations (Hazel’s revenge, Watts’ grudge, Tyrian’s fanaticism) that require careful management. Controlling numerous factions like the White Fang or Hana Guild directly would dilute her ability to enforce loyalty, as evidenced by Adam Taurus’ independent actions leading to his expulsion after Haven’s failure.

Why Not More Factions? Coordinating multiple villainous groups (e.g., the White Fang, Hana Guild, or other criminal networks like Roman Torchwick’s) would require delegating authority, which Salem avoids. Her killing of Leonardo Lionheart for his failure shows she discards those who don’t meet her standards. Managing disparate factions with their own leaders (e.g., Sienna Khan or Jacques Schnee) risks rebellion or inefficiency, as seen when Adam killed Sienna to seize control, disrupting Salem’s plans.

2. Salem’s Strategy Relies on Precision and Specialized Skills, Not Numbers

Canon Basis: The Inner Circle’s members are chosen for specific roles: Cinder as the Maiden power vessel, Tyrian for tracking and assassination, Watts for technological sabotage, Hazel for brute force, Vermillion for artifact hunting, and the Asturias siblings for Vacuo operations. Each fills a niche in her plan to secure the Relics and destroy the Academies.

Theory: Salem prioritizes quality over quantity, selecting individuals with unique skills or motivations that align with her goals. Manipulating more people or factions could lead to redundancy or conflicts, as seen when Cinder’s underlings (Emerald, Mercury, Neo) clashed with her leadership, or when Raven Branwen only allied briefly for self-preservation. A larger network might lack the precision needed to infiltrate Ozma’s defenses, like accessing the heavily guarded Vaults. For example, Watts’ hacking in Atlas or Lionheart’s insider intel in Mistral required specialized betrayal, not mass recruitment. Salem likely avoided broader villain alliances (e.g., controlling all of Mistral’s underworld beyond Vermillion’s Hana Guild) because they’re harder to direct toward her specific endgame—unlocking the Relics to summon the Gods.

Why Not Better Coordination? Her current circle struggles with cohesion due to clashing personalities (Cinder’s ambition vs. Tyrian’s loyalty, Mercury’s indifference vs. Hazel’s principles). A larger group or more factions would exacerbate this, as Salem would need to micromanage competing egos or agendas, diverting focus from her Relic hunt.

3. Salem’s Immortality and Long-Term Perspective Discourage Broad Alliances

Canon Basis: Salem’s Inner Circle has existed for millennia, but its modern form is recent, with members like Cinder, Tyrian, and Watts recruited in recent decades. Her true goal (destroying Remnant to end her immortality) requires all four Relics, a task she’s pursued patiently across centuries.

Theory: As an immortal, Salem operates on a timescale where short-term alliances with volatile factions (like the White Fang or other criminal groups) are less valuable than a small, controllable team. Historically, her subordinates like the unnamed female warrior or Tock were deployed for specific missions (killing Ozma or Silver-Eyed Warriors), suggesting she prefers temporary, focused operatives over sprawling networks. Building a vast coalition of villains risks exposure to Ozma’s group, who’ve countered her for millennia. For instance, her limited alliance with the White Fang under Adam collapsed after Haven, and the Hana Guild served only as Vermillion’s tool, not a core faction. Salem likely sees large-scale manipulation as unsustainable, given her past failures (e.g., Tock’s death due to recklessness).

Why Limited Manipulation? Salem manipulates through personal promises (e.g., Hazel’s revenge, Cinder’s power), which are tailored to individuals. Scaling this to dozens of people or factions would strain her ability to deliver, risking rebellion. Her torture of Cinder for disobedience shows she enforces loyalty through fear and reward, a method less effective with larger, less personal groups.

4. The Nature of Remnant’s Villain Factions Limits Cooperation

Canon Basis: The White Fang, under Adam, allied with Salem but pursued its own Faunus-centric goals, leading to friction (Hazel’s discontent with Sienna’s death). Other allies like Raven or Lionheart acted out of self-interest, not loyalty, and defected or failed. Cinder’s faction (Emerald, Mercury, Neo) shows internal strife, with Emerald defecting and Neo blackmailing Cinder.

Theory: Remnant’s villainous factions are too self-serving or ideologically driven to align seamlessly under Salem. The White Fang prioritized Faunus rights, not her world-ending agenda, and Adam’s takeover destabilized their usefulness. Similarly, criminal groups like Roman’s or the Hana Guild focus on profit or local power, not global destruction. Salem likely avoids uniting them because their goals conflict with hers, and forcing cooperation could alert Ozpin’s group (e.g., Qrow uncovering Lionheart’s betrayal). Even within her Inner Circle, coordination falters—Cinder’s defiance, Hazel’s defection, and Watts’ betrayal by Cinder show how even a small group struggles to work together. A larger coalition would amplify these fractures, especially since Salem’s true goal (world destruction) alienates potential allies, as seen with Hazel and Emerald’s defections.

Why Not Manipulate More? Salem’s manipulation requires deep psychological leverage, which is resource-intensive. She recruited Tyrian by saving him, Hazel by offering vengeance, and Watts by exploiting his grudge. Scaling this to dozens of people or factions would dilute her influence, especially since many villains (e.g., Adam or Raven) prioritize their own survival or power over her apocalyptic vision.

5. Salem’s Reliance on Grimm and Isolation Reduces the Need for Human Allies

Canon Basis: Salem’s headquarters, Evernight Castle, and her mobile base, Monstra, are in the Land of Darkness, tied to the Creatures of Grimm, which she commands effortlessly. Her Inner Circle operates as an extension of her will, not a replacement for her Grimm armies.

Theory: Salem’s primary strength lies in her control over Grimm, which don’t require manipulation or loyalty and can be deployed en masse (e.g., her Atlas assault). Human allies are a secondary tool for infiltrating human societies where Grimm can’t operate subtly. She limits her human circle to a few key players because they’re sufficient to handle tasks like stealing Maiden powers or sabotaging academies, while Grimm handle brute-force destruction. Controlling more factions or people would require integrating them into her Grimm-centric strategy, which is impractical given their human limitations (e.g., fear of Grimm like The Hound). Her isolation in the Land of Darkness also suggests a preference for minimal human contact, relying on fear and mystique to keep her small circle in line rather than managing a sprawling network.

Why Poor Cooperation? Salem’s authoritarian style (e.g., punishing Cinder, killing Lionheart) fosters fear but not teamwork. Her followers compete for her favor (Cinder vs. Watts, Tyrian’s blind devotion vs. Hazel’s doubts), and she seems to encourage this to prevent unified rebellion. A larger group or more factions would make this dynamic unmanageable, as seen when Cinder’s ambition repeatedly disrupts group cohesion.

Conclusion

Theories on Why Salem's Inner Circle Took So Long to Locate and Target the Maidens Until Cinder Fall's Involvement

Based on the provided canon details from the RWBY wiki on Salem's Inner Circle, I'll outline some reasoned theories for the delay in effectively finding and pursuing the Maidens. These are speculative but grounded in the timeline, group dynamics, and challenges described. Salem's conflict with Ozma spans millennia, yet her systematic hunt for the Maidens—whose powers unlock the Relic Vaults—only ramps up with her modern recruits, particularly Cinder. Here's why that might be:

1. The Secrecy and Random Nature of Maiden Power Transfers Made Early Detection Extremely Difficult

The Maidens' powers pass to a random young woman (typically under 30) upon the previous holder's death, often based on the dying Maiden's last thoughts. This unpredictability would make tracking them a logistical nightmare without insider knowledge or widespread surveillance.

Ozma (Ozpin's previous incarnations) designed the system this way to protect the Relics, hiding the Maidens' identities even from most allies. For example, the Spring Maiden had been missing for years before Tyrian's hunt, and the Fall Maiden (Amber) was kept secret and protected by Ozpin's group.

In earlier eras, Salem's subordinates like the unnamed female warrior or Tock were focused on direct assassinations (e.g., killing Ozma's incarnations or Silver-Eyed Warriors) rather than a broad search for elusive, hidden figures. Without a network of spies in the Kingdoms or academies, Salem couldn't pinpoint Maidens until she built her current circle, which includes infiltrators like Leonardo Lionheart (who provided intel on Huntsmen but could have helped with Maiden leads).

2. Salem's Earlier Subordinates Lacked the Skills, Loyalty, or Resources for a Sustained Maiden Hunt

Historical members, such as the female warrior (who targeted "The Infinite Man" and The Circle millennia ago) or Tock (who hunted Silver-Eyed Warriors decades prior), were more like lone operatives or raiders focused on elimination rather than intelligence-gathering or power theft. Tock ignored Salem's advice on her Semblance, leading to her death, suggesting early followers were unreliable or short-lived.

Salem's group has existed for millennia, but the "inner circle" as a coordinated faction seems relatively modern. Recent recruits like Cinder, Tyrian, Hazel, Watts, and Vermillion Raddock bring specialized skills: Cinder's ambition and Grimm-based power-stealing method (key for becoming a "vessel" for Maiden powers), Watts' tech expertise for infiltration (e.g., hacking in Atlas), and Tyrian's tracking prowess (he was assigned to hunt the Spring Maiden before being redirected).

Before this, Salem may have lacked a team capable of operating in human societies without drawing attention. Grimm are her natural allies, but they're mindless and can't infiltrate academies or Kingdoms effectively. Building a human inner circle took time, possibly because potential recruits needed personal motivations (e.g., Hazel's revenge for his sister, Watts' grudge against Ironwood) that only arose in recent decades.

3. Ozma's Evolving Defenses and the Establishment of Academies Delayed Salem's Progress

The Relics were hidden in Vaults beneath the Huntsman Academies, which Ozma founded relatively recently (post-Great War, about 80 years before the series). Before the academies existed, the Maidens might have been nomadic or less centralized, but Ozma's system made them guardians tied to specific locations—yet still hard to access without knowing their identities.

Salem's past efforts focused on disrupting Ozma's broader plans, like slaughtering The Circle or hunting Silver-Eyed Warriors (a threat to Grimm). The Maidens, being a later creation by Ozma, might not have been a priority until he fortified the Relics behind them. Even then, successful infiltration required waiting for vulnerabilities, like corrupting Lionheart or allying with groups like the White Fang.

Failures in early attempts could have set her back. For instance, if previous subordinates tried and failed (similar to Tock's demise), Salem might have shifted focus to weakening Ozma's influence first—destroying Beacon, then targeting Haven, Atlas, and now Vacuo—before fully committing to Maiden hunts.

4. Salem's Long-Term Strategy Prioritized Building Power Over Immediate Action

Salem warns her followers that their desires come second to hers, emphasizing patience: Relics first, personal goals later. This suggests a deliberate, methodical approach rather than rushed aggression, possibly to avoid alerting Ozma too early or wasting resources.

Her true goal (summoning the Gods to destroy Remnant and end her immortality) requires all four Relics, so partial Maiden successes wouldn't suffice. Until she had a reliable "vessel" like Cinder—who could absorb powers via Grimm methods (developed recently?)—killing Maidens might just scatter the powers randomly, making them harder to reclaim.

Recent events show acceleration: Tyrian hunted the Spring Maiden pre-Beacon, but only Cinder successfully stole powers (half from Amber). This implies Salem waited for the right tool (Cinder) and timing (e.g., after recruiting Watts for tech support or Vermillion for artifact hunts in Mistral).