#envs

hey! i study climate change and the environment and work in that field, so i know pretty well how it looks. i would definitely not consider myself falling to climate doomerism considering i am actively working to address the problem and would not be doing that if i didn't believe things can be done.

that said, if this is about the post i reblogged about there not being snow like there used to, i think i can still express sadness that things have changed irrevocably. the absence of snow is a visible indicator of changing climate and weather patterns. i love the snow and i miss it.

The same kind of cautions apply to the stories or songs one might tell about oneself. The details of our individual lives are unexceptional: the only accounts worth noting are outstanding dreams and moments of encounter with the spirit world and its transformations. Stories told of dreams, insights, and healing are worth telling.”

Cr. Gary Snyder

The Validity of Conclusions

Precautionary Principles

Must prove something will not cause harm prior to action.

Exploration of alternatives to possible harmful action(s).

This creates an easier method, as preventing is simpler to fix than repairing a problem.

Example: Banning Cell Phones on planes because of possible negative interaction rather than allowing Cell Phones and dealing with possible negative interaction (i.e.; plane crash).

Uncertainty - unmeasurable risk

Risks - measurable uncertainty 

Example: Dr. Rumsfeld on uncertainty “unknown unknowns”= uncertainties.

Potential Precautionary Principles

Hypothesis -> scientists have a bias to “easy-to-test” hypothesis.

Interactions -> we look for simple, independent effects and not interactions (i.e.; species interactions causing effects).

Uncertainty ->we look too narrowly at uncertainty

Type I, II, III Errors 

Type I Errors - False Positives (Harass people because of last name IE Racial profiling).

Type II Errors - False Negative (Not catching medical disease when person still could possibly have a disease).

Type III Errors - Wrong Answers

John Ralston

The Dilemma: “Methodology over content”. Managers of the environment are too disconnected, trying to manage a system that they believe they’re not part/inside of.

Resource Management Problem: How much can you take without undermining the resources in the future?

Determining Resilience

Ecological Resilience

The magnitude of disturbance a system can tolerate before a shift in state.

Social Ecological Resilience

The capacity of the system to absorb disturbance and reorganize.

Disaster Resilience