#envirostudyblr

Emergency Risk Managers tend to over manage unknown future events but make (6) very common mistakes.  Black swan events are unpredictable events, such as predicting mass earthquakes and what to do encase. These events themselves are unpredictable and the model over a mass event happening every 100 years is the hypothetical model used.

The Validity of Conclusions

Precautionary Principles

Must prove something will not cause harm prior to action.

Exploration of alternatives to possible harmful action(s).

This creates an easier method, as preventing is simpler to fix than repairing a problem.

Example: Banning Cell Phones on planes because of possible negative interaction rather than allowing Cell Phones and dealing with possible negative interaction (i.e.; plane crash).

Uncertainty - unmeasurable risk

Risks - measurable uncertainty 

Example: Dr. Rumsfeld on uncertainty “unknown unknowns”= uncertainties.

Potential Precautionary Principles

Hypothesis -> scientists have a bias to “easy-to-test” hypothesis.

Interactions -> we look for simple, independent effects and not interactions (i.e.; species interactions causing effects).

Uncertainty ->we look too narrowly at uncertainty

Type I, II, III Errors 

Type I Errors - False Positives (Harass people because of last name IE Racial profiling).

Type II Errors - False Negative (Not catching medical disease when person still could possibly have a disease).

Type III Errors - Wrong Answers

A Theory is a set of claims and statements.

A Framework is a set of guidelines/outlines for what to do. Example: How to think; A set of concepts with key terms. What the concepts are and their relationship to each other.

Picking a View (Anthropocentric vs. Eco-Centric)

You don’t alway have to have an eco-centric or anthropocentric view for each problem, as views an change overtime. This is highly dependent on if the evaluation includes a (S)social system or (E)Ecological system.

Example: 

 S=>E (Policy plus Ecocentric)

E=>S (Anthropocentric)

S<=>E (Anthropocentric Integrative) 

Fubie Problem (Back of the Envelope Calculation):

The way of making approximate awnsers without the information at hand (AKA a quick answer).

MaxEnt Theory 

Thermodynamic analogy: “You can aggregate measurements and learn something about individuals or maybe vice versa”. There is a system with properties that emerge the individuals properties.

Example: John Harte’s Meadow Experiment

This experiment includes the slow heating of a controlled meadow over a span of ten years +. The Macro-ecology analyzed the structure, functions, state and thresholds of this specific environment.  The fractals analyzed were self-similar, which are essentially the same object at a different scale. 

(Zooming in on a specific area, more and more)

Question - Is species abundance fractal? 

Harte’s Upscaling (Fractals)

A fine grid => a corse grid. Starting small, identify in-depth analysis, but you must have a formula on how things change at a different scale. Gradually moving into a larger scale, making a general assumption of subject “X”.(Example, “x” will increase 3x per scale increase).

Management Cycle

Can we reconcile ecosystems services with increased output?

Ecological Intensification

Supporting and maximizing ecosystems resources. Example: Mixed cropping creating a diversified rotations, resulting in better quality of habitats.

Knowledge Gaps of EI (Ecological Intensification) include the current and past practices on ecosystems functionalities.

Example: Adaptive Management