Trump won over āpersuadableā voters in 2016 and 2024 not by discerning their issue preferences and moderating his message to suit them but by motivating and equipping his base to carry his tune. When you are a low-info voter, seeing people youāve known forever wearing the MAGA hat tells you that this is what people like you believe. And so you do. Trumpās campaigns have been driven by unleashing, not admonishing, his base and recruiting trusted messengers rather than trying to persuade people principally with ads.
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Trump won over āpersuadableā voters in 2016 and 2024 not by discerning their issue preferences and moderating his message to suit them but by motivating and equipping his base to carry his tune.
A brilliant video that I missed the first time around in 2016. Leslie Odom, Jr. sings the Barack Obama part (looking ahead to the 2016 election featuring the frontrunner Hillary Clinton, a bunch of spoiler candidates (like Nader and Jill Stein), and the white backlash candidate Trump). Words and melody written by Broadway superwoman Sara Bareilles.
Trump received 46% of the vote in 2016. He received 47% of the vote in 2020. This translated into a 304-227 Electoral College win for Trump in 2016 and a 232-306 loss for Trump in 2020. Biden won the popular vote by more than Clinton did, but the real difference was determined by a few tens of thousands of voters in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Polling is pretty good these days, even given the array of challenges it faces, but it canāt really tell us anything about the 50,000 or so voters who will make the difference among the 150 million or so who will cast their votes this year. We just donāt have instruments that accurate.
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Three news outlets were recently leaked confidential material from inside the Trump campaign, but have chosen not to reveal any of the details about what they received.
At least three news outlets were leaked confidential material from inside the Donald Trump campaign, including its report vetting JD Vance as a vice presidential candidate. So far, each has refused to reveal any details about what they received.
Instead, Politico, The New York Times and The Washington Post have written about a potential hack of the campaign and described what they had in broad terms.
Their decisions stand in marked contrast to the 2016 presidential campaign, when a Russian hack exposed emails to and from Hillary Clintonās campaign manager, John Podesta. The website Wikileaks published a trove of these embarrassing missives, and mainstream news organizations covered them avidly.
Politico wrote over the weekend about receiving emails starting July 22 from a person identified as āRobertā that included a 271-page campaign document about Vance and a partial vetting report on Sen. Marco Rubio, who was also considered as a potential vice president. Both Politico and the Post said that two people had independently confirmed that the documents were authentic.
All of this is starting to feel a lot like 2016, only in reverse. When I covered the 2016 Democratic convention in Philadelphia, virtually every Democrat who attended was certain that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next president. Trump had won a fractured primary in unprecedented fashion, and there were plenty of prominent Republicans who wanted nothing to do with him. Ted Cruz spoke at the convention in Cleveland but didnāt offer an endorsement. Other Republicans openly fretted about a landslide or the very destruction of the GOP itself. Clinton was going to win and it was only a matter of by how much.
The prosecution has Trump dead to rights on the question of falsification of business records. In addition to a damning paper trail of the cover up, there will be key witnesses, including Trumpās fixer Michael Cohen, who will explain the whole scheme to the jury first hand. And there is audio tape of a conversation between Trump and Cohen about the catch and kill scheme.Ā The challenge for the prosecution will be to show that Trump falsified the records in order to help his election chances. His lawyers likely will argue that he did this instead to protect his marriage (ha!) or to protect his public image (which was inextricably wound up with his candidacy).
