#dynosteve2018

In response to rat bastard Mitch Kiper’s unscrupulous reporting, KAI PR rep Clay Aiken would like to issue the following statement:

Hi all. As Mitch Kiper navigates this first year in the Dynosteve media circles, he is slowly but surely finding his way. Part of that internal discovery involves meditating to the mantra, “Bless Em.” It also involves the self-realization that writing a data-driven article prior to Thursday Night Football is an unsustainable weekly effort. So, welcome to the new air date for the Kipreview. New time slot, same questionable analysis you love.

This week, before I get started, I want to make a special shout out to four players. In the fantasy world, these players are largely useless. But because I have to input stats from literally every player in the CBS database, running “Text to Columns” to separate first and last, there are some players who cause trouble with longer names than the average, so each week I’m stuck manually editing their names. These players have become special to me. While they may not play meaningful downs in the NFL, they certainly are the buttfumbles of Mitch Kiper’s heart. So this week, Mitch Kiper is handing his annual “Your Surnames Suck” awards to: Equanimeous St. Brown, James Vander Laan, DeAngelo Henderson Sr., and Robert Griffin III. Congratulations. My excel spreadsheet hates you.

These awards are not the only a la carte special Mitch Kiper will be serving this week. At the request of statistic-guru peer Ben Buccigross, we will be looking at the Bergen Boxtables QB situation, and trying to assess once and for all who should claim the Blue Throne of Bergen.

NOTABLE TRANSACTION:

Honorable mention goes to… Greater Zimbabwe Victoria Falls – Packers D/ST

This was the only move in the league that had any impact this week. Prior to week 4, the Falls picked up the Packers and dropped Jordan Matthews. The Packers immediately became the Falls D/ST #1, boosting their C-FPG by 2, and giving them a top 10% defense. Goose’s previous D/ST #1, the Panthers, are barely better than half the currently rostered Defenses.

Also, it’s worth noting that the Packers put up 28 points, pushing the Falls over the edge of a very high scoring battle with the Yeshivas. That pickup made the difference. And meanwhile, the Jaguars languish in the 81st percentile of rostered D/STs, putting up an average of 9 ppg. Mitch Kiper still has hope, but right now he is willing to admit he may have made a mistake.

Speaking of Mistakes…

And since this league is apparently about being petty (looking at you, Scenario Dilloatmeal), a very special almost Dishonorable Mention… That Damn Michael Thomas trade.

Thatcher Hammerfest mentioned this past week that Adam Thielen fared just as well as dearly departed WR Michael Thomas. This logic is irrelevant. The Hammerfest would not have come even close to losing to the Longships had Thomas and Thielen been on the roster. Last week, even though Thomas scored basically even with Rob Gronkowski, the prize the Hammerfest supposedly pillaged from the Syndrome, the Hammerfest would have had a clearer win had they not made the trade. Replace Gronk with Burton, and Sanders with Thomas, and the Hammerfest not only win that matchup more convincingly, they also win one and possibly two more matchups in prior weeks.

Mitch Kiper has a grading system that he usually keeps to himself to grade players. It’s based on a formula similar to how he calculates the overall league rankings, giving different positions variable weightings based on the percentage of total points the position contributes to a weekly score, as well as the scarcity of quality players at that position. Here is how Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski compare, along with some other players for reference:

While Rob Gronkowski scores more than Kenyan Drake, he is nowhere near as valuable, considering his composite output is basically that of a mid-to-low tier receiver. Note how the Hammerfest traded away a player who, by this system, is worth twice as much as Rob Gronkowski. If you argue the system, that’s cool too—it’s vague and arbitrary from your point of view. What you can’t argue is the ridiculous disparity in weekly FPG, and the fact that Rob Gronkowski is only better than 85% of the rostered TEs in the league, and Michael Thomas is better than every single WR in all of Dynosteve. Less than two percent of the NFL ranks higher than him.

Also, don’t look now, but…

Now it stands to reason that Gronk will do better now that the offense is opening up thanks to new addition Josh Gordon and new-old addition Julian Edelman. That said, from Mitch Kiper’s perspective, argue it however you want, this is still a bad trade. Hammerfest could have kept Michael Thomas and basically had the same production at TE. Adam Thielen to Michael Thomas is not the comparison you need to make. It’s Michael Thomas taking up one spot v. Gronk + Sanders taking up two, and the opportunity cost lost by making this trade.

SPECIAL FEATURE: BEN’S QBs

Last week, Bergen Ben Buccigross, sometimes referred to as the Better Benjamin Bureau or Best Bud Ben, came to Mitch Kiper with a request. Could he please analyze his QB situation and help him improve his decision making process? Being the helpful pal that he is, Mitch Kiper said yes, especially since he made scurrilous claims about the Boxtables QB situation in weeks prior.

Ideally, Mitch Kiper wanted to take the weekly C-PPG of each player and calculate a moving average, trying to track the trendlines of the two players Composite PPG over time. Unfortunately, Mitch Kiper has only been tracking his proprietary data for four weeks of this season. That would not be enough.

So, he took the pure FPPG data from both Brees and Watson, threw them onto a chart, and calculated a 4-game moving average to look at the trends of each player, and try to predict where their scores should range. Obviously, Watson’s 2017 injury puts a bit of a question mark on the process, but Mitch Kiper thinks this is one of the more reliable ways to use such a limited data set in such limited time (Mitch Kiper doesn’t like to spend more than an hour per week on these articles).

While Mitch Kiper would have loved to claim that Brees was the obvious choice here, the data seems to indicate that the picture isn’t so clear. Bergen’s weekly flummoxing is understandable. Both QBs have been trading weekly high scores. Right now, Brees is averaging higher than Watson. Yet based on historical data, we can probably expect a regression towards the 15-20 fppg range, which is where he sat all of last season. If we were to eliminate the gaping hole in Watson’s games, and measure them back to back (which Mitch Kiper could do, but once again, lazy), his moving average would be above that of Brees. Even now, Watson’s trendline looks primed to cross over Drew Bree’s trendline.

So who does Mitch Kiper recommend? Deshaun Watson. There are of course mitigating factors: Brees has a killer offense, arguably better than that of 2017. Watson’s WRs tend to get injured, and it’s possible that he could regress as defenses get more tape on him. But for now, Watson looks to be on the uptrend back to 2017 levels, while history says that Brees will likely calm down. Hope this helps, Mr. Buccigross. You sure are a Better Benjamin.

TOP FREE AGENTS:

Because I’ve done some longer features this week, I’m skipping free agency. You can see them on the fantasy website. There’s not much I can offer here that you can’t get yourself.

TAXI WATCH:

Here is the taxi squad as it currently stands, followed by relevant updates and changes:

- Nyheim Hines is still a stud. He’s better than over 75% of running backs currently on Dynosteve Rosters. Considering 75%+ is usually good enough to put you on a starting roster, the fact that he’s still on a Taxi squad is absurd. The fact that Goose can afford to keep him there is depressing.

- Most of the other taxi players have come back down to earth. Mark Andrews and Antonio Callaway might become intriguing once injuries and byes start to screw a couple teams, but otherwise these players are right where they should be.

LEAGUE OVERVIEW:

Finally, the league overview. Here’s how it looked before Tuesday’s waivers, and then after waivers. Both of these reflect the Week 4 stats.

- The swap at #1 and #2 comes from the Falls signing the Packers prior to the Week 04 games. Because it was a late-in-the-week move, it hadn’t factored in yet. This is another reason I’m moving to Saturdays. Also, props to Goose for making a small move with a seemingly decent impact.  

- Gakusei Kai suffers a massive drop due to the loss of FitzMagic.

- The Fenoms are surprisingly high up there. We’ll see if the Cheefs can continue their run, or if cold weather will slow them down.

THE KIPREVIEW: WEEK FOUR

 Greetings gents. Mitch Kiper here, with another visual delight for your nerd eyeballs to scan. This week won’t carry the controversy of Week Three, but the Kipe won’t let that stop him from providing fun and questionably valuable metrics as we head in to the fourth week of fantasy. It’s hard to believe we’re almost a quarter of the way through the season. Not only that, we’re officially entering bye weeks! Ç'est Magnifique! That’s right—Mitch Kiper speaks French.

NOTABLE TRANSACTION:

Gakusei Kai Nickelsnatchers – Trade SASWW for Buck Allen: Was it a great long term dynasty trade? Probably not. However, that trade saved the Nickelsnatchers week 3, and probably benefitted the league as a whole. Buck Allen was the key contributor to the Nickelsnatcher upset of the Brooklyn Yeshivas. Without him, KAI would have played Marcus Murphy (if you’re asking “who?!”, you’re right) and lost by just a few points.

According to KiperMetrics, Allen also adds to the overall strength of the Nickelsnatchers team. Adding Allen shifted the Nickelsnatchers from 11th to 10th overall, and more importantly closer in score to the middle tier than the bottom (see league overview for this). Here is what the Nickelsnatchers team looks like right now.

Honorable mentions go to…

Gakusei Kai Nickelsnatchers – Week 03 Tyler Eifert trade: For the simple fact that the moment they traded him away, he posted up a double digit scoring game. Eifert needs one more for the Nickelsnatchers to level up and earn at least one of the Boxtable’s 2nd round picks.

Dishonorable mention goes to…

Bergen Boxtables – Starting Deshaun Watson AGAIN: While not a transaction, per se, this needs to be noted. Bergen has a good team. Mitch Kiper stands by this statement, as well as his pre-season rankings. Alas, a good team means nothing if you’re starting the absolute wrong player. Watch Deshaun Watson for five minutes and you see a quarterback going through a sophomore slump. Teams have scouting on him now, and know how to make him struggle with his progressions. Here is a comparison between the Boxtables’ two best QBs:

Ben has started Watson for three straight weeks. For three straight weeks, Drew Brees—a perennially good fantasy QB, as proven by the fact that he is #1 all time among all NFL players in composite rating—has outperformed Watson. WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!

And for once, a neutral mention goes to…

Brooklyn Yeshivas & Bergen Boxtables – Ito Smith to BOX, John Brown to YESH: There’s no arguing that this trade is mutually beneficial. The Yeshivas get a young promising WR to replace a lagging Brandon Marshall as their WR3, and Ben Buccigross gets a promising young Falcon RB who is primed to possibly take a bigger role next year once Tevin Coleman is gone. Yet as far as the KiperRatings go, this move does not make much of a dent in their overall roster composition.

The Yeshivas gain slightly by adding Brown, at least according to C-PPG, which is a more long term measure. John Brown carries a 10.62 c-ppg, while Brandon Marshall is at 9.86. For how far ahead of the pack the Yeshivas are, this does not make enough of a dent to be considered anything more than a minor move. Perhaps it will pay off come playoff time, but for now it makes next to no difference in his overall ranking. Here’s how the Yeshivas looked before and after this trade:

TOP FREE AGENTS:

It’s a sad, lonely world in free agency. But if you want to brave it, here are the top free agents according to cppg, and the rostered players closest to them in the ranks:

Notable tidbits:

- People are hanging on to kickers that are well below the leaders in the league. In particular, Jason Myers should be signed by someone, as he’s currently in the top 10% of all kickers currently in the NFL according to C-PPG. If you look at the current K rankings by FPG, the top 5 are taken and then there’s a wide gap before we hit other owned players. Sure, the difference is miniscule, but every point counts.

- According to C-PPG, Deshaun Watson is not far off from Joe Flacco and Andrew Luck. This should be a signal to the owners who insist on playing these QBs in lieu of alternatives (or, owners who insist on holding even worse QBs—cough cough Dak Prescott—in lieu of Flacco).

- D/ST pickings are not bad. As this article was written, HAMM dropped the Jets for the Dolphins. That means there is one D/ST available that is still better than 80% of the D/STs currently on Dynosteve rosters. For those who have been paying attention the last few weeks, 75th percentile seems to be the mark you want to stay above to win points in positional battles.

- RB free agents are virtually non-existent. Alfred Blue is the best option available, and he puts up fewer points than fellow FA WR Terrelle Pryor. Terrelle Pryor.

- Same goes for TEs. But hey, if anyone wants someone who puts up points, Garrett Celek is there.

- There are certain players that, according to C-PPG, are due for a regression: Dolphins WRs Jakeem GGrant and Albert Wilson are the main suspects. To a lesser extent, Chris Godwin and Keelan Cole are outperforming their history. On the flip side, Mitch Kiper expects to see slightly more from Duke Johnson and Tavon Austin.

TAXI WATCH:

Here is the taxi squad as it currently stands, followed by relevant updates and changes:

- Dante Pettis: With Garoppolo out for the season, Pettis has seemingly gotten comfy in his taxi seat. He is currently in the lower half of Dyno WRs as far as points scored goes. There’s no reason to bring him up.  Antonio Callaway is ranked similar to Pettis, and for now is in the same boat.

- Nyheim Hines: Hines remains our best taxi player, and yet due to the strength of the Falls, his promotion seems far off. He’s performing better than 60% of the Dynosteve RBs. This would qualify him as a worthwhile sub on most squads. The fact that the Falls can afford to keep Hines off the active roster is a slap in the face to us all.  

- Mark Andrews: A newbie to the taxi watch, Mark Andrews is currently performing better than 60+% of the TEs on Dynosteve rosters. Considering how many teams have been scrounging for TE talent, Andrews is a valuable stash, and possible trade bait.

- Ito Smith: The trade of Ito Smith is, I believe, our first ever taxi-squad only trade. Because the Boxtables had to drop Dalton Schultz to make room for Ito, the total taxi pool has dropped by one player this week.

LEAGUE OVERVIEW:

Finally, the league overview.

- ZIMBAB and YESH remain in a league of their own, while the Fenoms amazingly lead the pack for the last two spots in the championship tier.

- Without Lev Bell to buoy them, the Juneboshers have fallen to merely above average. They’re in the thick of things, barely separated in score from WALL and BOX.

- Mitch Kiper still predicts that BOX will rise and ONED will fall in the standings by season end, mainly due to bench strength and lack thereof, respectively. He believes that the coming bye weeks, not to mention injuries, will more directly hurt the Syndrome, while the Boxtables have enough bench strength to weather the storm. This is also why he predicts KAI to suck eventually. There’s very little depth in the Gakusei Kai household.

Holy smoked meats, it’s already Week 03 of fantasy football. Mitch Kiper has had to pull himself out of a multi-day beef-and-beer hangover to write this piece. He’ll be sweating out grease for weeks, and trying to get the image of Goose’s bare soffe short thighs out of his head for years. Why does a man that large choose to wear shorts that small? But I digress. This past week brought plenty of drama in the NFL. We learned that kickers can’t kick, Fitzmagic is more than a one-time-only show, and the Browns will Brown whenever given a chance.

Also, **NEWSFLASH**!!! In doing his prepwork for this week’s Kipreview, Mitch Kiper found a potential RULES VIOLATION! And for once, it isn’t being perpetrated by Gakusei Kai, so this is really juicy you guys. Read on to learn more about it.

NOTABLE TRANSACTION:

Bergen Boxtables – Trading for Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

In years past, there was controversy whenever a team played a guaranteed 0 point-getter at a position. Remember that? Remember? ‘Member? Well Ben wasn’t breaking any rules by playing his Tight Ends—they were healthy, and they did play snaps—but they might as well have been sitting on the bench when you considered the lack of production they put up. In the first two weeks, his three rostered Tight Ends combined for 1.6 fppg. Not averaged, combined. Worth noting: those points were Mike “Get off my” Gesecki in Week One. He was on the bench. That means in two weeks the Boxtables had earned exactly 0 points at one position. Now with Eifert on the table, Bergen is at least guaranteed some points… we hope.

Here is how the Boxtables Roster and TE depth chart now looks after the trade:

(Stats on the TE comparison: Current Avg PPG, Avg C-PPG, Percentile vs. Rostered TEs)

Needless to say, even for Eifert, who has yet to put up the numbers he used to, this is an upgrade for the Boxtables. Prior to the trade, the Boxtables were 9th in the Kiper ratings, with a 85.79 (B) rating. They are now 7th, with a 88.01 (B+).

Honorable mentions go to…

- Laeso Longships & Ludders -  Tyler Boyd WR CIN: Seems like everyone wanted a Tyler from Cincinnati this week. The Ludders made a solid pickup with some actual long term potential, provided Boyd continues to outplay John Ross. Dalton and Boyd seem to have a good rapport, and with A.J. Green on the last few years of his career, could potentially turn from an NFL WR2 to WR1 eventually… as long as he can keep up the performance. Per Kiper’s C-PPG, Boyd immediately slots in as LONG’s WR4, only decimal points behind Chris Godwin.

- Gakusei Kai Nickelsnatchers – Ryan Fitzpatrick QB TB: On Thursday, GM Haymitch Golden was told that Marcus Mariota would be healthy. So, he did not play Joe Flacco . On Sunday, Haymitch was given sad news: Mariota was healthy, but would not be playing. So, he had to pick up a 6th QB. In an exclusive interview, Haymitch revealed to Mitch Kiper that he was not proud of having to carry a 6th QB, but he should be proud of the result. For once, a gameday pickup resulted in points a-plenty for the Nickelsnatchers. If only they had running backs who, you know, ran as backs.

Dishonorable mention goes to…

- Hammerfest Hammerfest – Week One trade with ONED: As long as Scenario Dookie-o keeps making references to the Jaguars trade of 2018 (which we truly cannot grade until at least mid-season), Mitch Kiper will continually make references to this trade (which we truly cannot grade until at least mid-season). When the trade was made, Mitch Kiper predicted that One Direction—er, the Stockholm Syndrome—would be the winner. He was proven at least partially right in the head-to-head matchup between these two trade partners. Had the trade never made it through the oligarchy, the Hammerfest would have won this game. Instead, they are 0-2.

TOP FREE AGENTS:

It’s a sad, lonely world in free agency. But if you want to brave it, here are the top free agents according to cppg, and the rostered players closest to them in the ranks:

TAXI WATCH:

For the true crime fans of Dynosteve, here’s what you’ve been waiting for. When Mitch Kiper took a look at the taxi watch, he expected to comment on Nyheim Hines, Antonio Callaway, and maybe take a jab at Sam Darnold hype. What he never expected was **!!!CONTROVERSY!!!**. It seems as if there’s an owner who doesn’t understand the rules of placing a player on the squad. Take a look for yourself and see if you can spot the perp.

Dynasty crimes aside, here are relevant taxi updates you need.

- Dante Pettis: Pettis slowed down this week, only putting up 5.3 ppg. Based on c-ppg, Pettis is Longship’s WR7. As of right now, he’s safe on the squad.

- Nyheim Hines: Only a team as strong as the Falls could afford to rack up a taxi fare like Nyheim Hines. Hines put up a second decent week, though this one was mainly due to a touchdown. His carries, yardage, and receptions were not up to snuff. Even so, Hines would rank as the Falls RB5 were he to be on the active roster. If Mixon’s absence extends beyond what’s anticipated, or if any more of the Falls’ RBs are to, well, fall, look for Hines to get a promotion.

- Antonio Callaway: With Josh Gordon out of the picture, Callaway makes an intriguing case as a WR2 in an offense that’s bound to be passing. He has plenty of talent, and would have been an NFL first rounder if not for off-the-field issues. Right now he’d be the Fenom’s WR7, so it’s not a necessity to bring him up just yet. That said, Callaway is an interesting situation to watch.

LEAGUE OVERVIEW:

Finally, the league overview. Let Thatcher’s facebook arguments commence.

Well wasn’t that fun. Week 01 provided everything we come to hope for from fantasy: high-scoring displays, low-scoring disappointments, and a seven-hour game where at least one QB scored a measly .004 points per minute. Thatcher lost to Kevin, Mitch did the usual against Goose, Jordan surprised everyone, and Corey’s team proved that they’re not getting too old for this shit just yet.

Before we get into the Mitch Kiper recap, a quick custom stat reminder:

Composite ppg: A blend of the player’s historical and current fpg performance. C-PPG is meant to assess a player’s overall value for more than one season. Naturally, rookies will be lower on this measure. C-PPG measures performance and proven value, not promise or potential.

QUICK AND DIRTY PREVIEW: WEEK TWO

Transactions slowed down this week, with only a few waiver pickups and roster moves. With the larger benches voted in this offseason, there is a dearth of talent readily available. For any teams looking to make significant changes, it looks like trading will become a more viable option. 

Here are the topics this week: Notable Pickup, Top Free Agents, Taxi Watch, Interesting Tidbits, and the already-controversial League Overview.

NOTABLE PICKUP:

Hammerfest Hammerfest – J-E-T-S D/ST 

Seems like the Svekis Family Robinson can’t stay out from under from Mitch Kiper’s magnifying glass. This team just loves making moves, and this week’s pickup lands them the spotlight once again. Granted, waivers and pickups were in single digits this week, but this was the most impactful move as far as Mitch KiperScore™ was concerned. Picking up the Jets boosted the Hammerfest from 8th to 5th in the league rankings. Of course, the major caveat is that our composite rankings this week are heavily influenced by only one week of play. They will eventually level out, but for now the Hammerfest can enjoy the temporary lift. Will the Jets be this year’s Jaguars? Mitch Kiper sure hopes not. 

Honorable mentions go to…

- The Helsinki Hellslinkies for Will Dissly TE. Right now, Dissly is inflating the hell out of the slinkies’s overall league ranking. Next week will likely bring them back down to earth… or at least further than usual.

Dishonorable mention goes to Gakusei Kai for picking up Joe Flacco QB. With Marcus Mariota possibly injured for Week 2, Jameis Winston suspended for three more games, and Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen still sitting on their NFL benches, Kai was forced to pick up a 5th overall QB. Picking up Flacco gave them a boost over the Longships in total KiperScore, but that is small consolation. What a mess.

TOP FREE AGENTS:

It’s a sad, lonely world in free agency. But if you want to brave it, here are the top free agents according to cppg, and how they compare against some similarly-projected current rostered players:

TAXI WATCH:

Already we have a few candidates for promotion from Taxi to Lyft, which begs the question: what makes a quality taxi stash? Is it a player who promotes quickly, or a player who truly needs the time to develop so you’re not wasting the space? If you go by the former, Sam Darnold, Nyheim Hines and Dante Pettis are great stashes. If you consider the latter, perhaps their owners didn’t allocate taxi spaces smartly enough. The Wallabies, in particular, missed a massive chance to pick up a rookie FA shortly after the draft if only to fill that 3rd spot.

Of those taxi darlings, here are the ones Mitch Kiper thinks are most primed to pay their fare and GTFO of the taxi squad sooner rather than later:

GETTING OFF IN A BLOCK OR TWO:

- Dante Pettis: With injuries already hitting the 49ers, and the emergence of a clear chemistry between Pettis and Jimmy G, plenty of DFS and seasonal dynasty “gurus” are proclaiming Pettis to be a solid value pick. While the Longships didn’t have the worst week, KiperMetrics still project them as a weak team. They could use all the help they could get. Mitch Kiper heard rumors that Laeso turned down at least one offer for Pettis this off-season; perhaps their faith will pay off. Possible cuts to make space: Elijah McGuire, Adam Shaheen.

- Nyheim Hines: Mitch Kiper went on the record last week saying Hines was a likely promotion this season, and he sticks by it this week. A solid 8.7ppg Week One debut shows that the ZIMBAB RB has plenty of potential for more usage over the course of the season. Though Goose doesn’t need the help at RB, Hines may turn into a valuable bye week promotion during the mid-season lull. Possible cut: Rishard Matthews

ANTSY TO LEAVE, BUT STUCK IN TRAFFIC:

- Sam Darnold’s performance was impressive in real life, but it was not yet fantasy relevant. He’ll need to put up consistent fantasy numbers to merit a promotion, especially when the Wallabies can rely on Philip Rivers.

INTERESTING TIDBITS:

For those hoping for league parity, this screenshot should scare the shit out of you. Here are the top 6 RBs from last week:

On the plus side, Kamara, Conner, Mixon and Crowell prove that quality RBs can be found year-to-year, and in Crowell’s case sometimes in places you don’t expect... like, you know, your own roster.

Other than that tidbit, Mitch Kiper doesn’t have much this week, since 1.) Week One is way too small a sample to analyze anything of relevance (*INCLUDING THE JAGUARS PERFORMANCE*) and 2.) Mitch Kiper is adjusting his grading system this week based on some Week One observations. Next week, he’ll provide more, and a whole revamped Kiper 2.0 player grade. 

LEAGUE OVERVIEW:

Finally, the hottest of hot takes league overview. There has been a lot of movement, which is about what you’d expect after the wild swings and small sample size of Week One. Mitch Kiper has already noticed some interesting trends in how score changes based on real results as opposed to projections. He plans to spend the next week implementing some of these observations to make a more reliable and impactful c-ppg, weighted percentile, as well as a way to apply that to individual players for grades. But for now, here’s the overview. Next week, we’ll start comparing C-PPG ratings to the average scores so generously provided by Ben Buccigross.

The most frustrating part of the year is finally upon us. That’s right: it’s fantasy football season, and Mitch Kiper is back to give you a quick and dirty rundown as we head into Week 01, which kicks off tomorrow with the Falcons and Eagles. Don’t skim too fast—each team is covered in this rundown, along with some fun facts about the league, and predictions about how each team will fare, thanks to Mitch Kiper’s patented KiperScore™.

A quick reminder of the stats Mitch likes to use:

Composite ppg: A blend of the player’s 3 year averages with current ppg (except for this week, where I’ll be using the CBS 2018 projections one last time). Note for context: Rookies will have comparatively weak composite ratings. I’m comfortable with this because rookie years are still unproven, and composite ppg is meant to be used as a measure of reliable value.

Composite %ile: How the player compares to other players on DYNOSTEVE rosters, based on composite ppg.

DIRTY RECAP: WEEK ONE

With the final round of roster cuts, taxi adds and waivers, this was a beyond active week for league transactions. For the first time, teams cut down to the now-increased maximum of 23+3, which already seems to be having an impact. Trade activity has been high leading into Week One, likely because the free agent field has been decimated by the increased roster size. Waivers aren’t quite what they used to be.

In an effort to set a consistent format for the weeks to come, we’ll be looking at several items each week: Notable Pickup of the Week, Notable Trade of the Week, Top Free Agents, Taxi Watch, Interesting Tidbits, and the League Overview.

NOTABLE PICKUP:

BERGEN BOXTABLES - Rico Gathers, TE DAL

In a week of pickups, drops and waiver claims, we could assess the statistical merits of any of these. What we can’t assess is the emotional merit. Finally, owner Ben Gross gets a player he’s been pining over for years from afar. Rico made the cut in Dallas, and supposedly still has a long way to go learning how to block and run clean routes before he can be effective on the big stage. But what he lacks in polish he more than makes up in heart and DYNOSTEVE name recognition. With Dalton Schultz on the taxi squad, Rico is the 3rd rostered Tight End on the Boxtables roster.

Key stats: 2.4 projected ppg, 15.38th Percentile of all DYNO TEs.

 NOTABLE TRADE:

The Hammerfest Duo

Thatcher Robinson was so busy auditioning for the Kevin Costner role in the sequel to Draft day, his method work must have seeped into real life. The Hammerfest were involved in several pre-week 01 trades, one of which Mitch Kiper loves; the other he’s not so keen on.

Calvin Ridley + 1st Round for Kenyan Drake + 2x 4th Rounders – This trade Mitch Kiper loves. While Hammerfest sacrificed some future potential, they gained solid depth in their RB stables, and some instant ppg production. He is a full 10%ile better than Hammerfests’ other potential RB3s, Darren Sproles and Rex Burkhead, and contributes to Hammerfests top-4 bench rating (more on this below).

For now, the move has less impact on the Juneboshers, and possibly a negative one; They lose their RB4, and Ridley barely makes a dent at WR8. The potential future value of Ridley and the 1st rounder have yet to be determined, but for now the Juneboshers are making an investment in their future. We’ll see if it pays off.

Mitch Kiper’s Winner: HAMMERFEST

Michael Thomas + Ty Montgomery for Rob Gronkowski + Emmanuel Sanders – When Mitch Kiper first saw this trade, he loved it. He thought the Hammerfest were getting a phenomenal upgrade at TE for little sacrifice at receiver. Unfortunately, the crunched numbers suggested otherwise. The trade took the Hammerfest from 5th to 8th in his overall scoring metric (once again, more below). Before it, Adam Thielen was his projected flex, at 11.61 ppg composite. Now it’s a toss-up between Kenyan Drake and Emmanuel Sanders, at roughly 8.7 a piece. Along with the loss of Michael Thomas’s production, plus the trickle-down effect on bench depth, this move seems to be more of a negative than positive impact, even when you consider the gains made in the TE position.

On the Syndrome Side, Ty Montgomery comes in as an RB5, strengthening the RB portion of his bench. And of course, Michael Thomas is an instant upgrade, providing 13.14 composite ppg in the WR1 slot, pushing Golden Tate to WR2 with 11.36 cppg, for a total of 24.50. Previously, the duo of Golden Tate and Ted Ginn were a total 19.48.

Mitch Kiper’s Winner: SYNDROME

For reference, here are the involved teams as they currently stand:

TOP FREE AGENTS:

It’s a sad, lonely world in free agency. But if you want to brave it, here are the top FLEX free agents according to cppg, and how they compare against some similarly-projected current rostered players:

For reference, here are the top rostered composite players heading into the season:

TAXI WATCH:

Considering it’s Week One, no one has been de-activated from Taxi Squads. Mitch Kiper does, however, have some interesting findings.

- Total by Position: 5 QBs, 11 RBs, 15 WRs, 4 TEs.

- WALL has Sam Darnold on the taxi squad, despite him being a starting QB on a team that’s sure to be passing a bunch.

- Of all the taxi players, Mitch Kiper predicts that ZIMBAB’s Nyheim Hines will be the most likely call-up. He would be the Falls’ RB5 if active.

- The player with the special designation of worst taxi squadder belongs to WR Jaleel Scott of the Norwegian Juneboshers, with 0 cppg and a 3.60%ile against all rostered WRs. Though there are others with 0 cppg (KAI’s Josh Adams and SASWW’s injured Derrius Guice), RBs with 0 have a slightly higher %ile at 5.43%, probably because there are two of them versus the one WR.

 INTERESTING TIDBITS:

Per usual, there are plenty. But this week, Mitch will let the charts speak for themselves. This is a look at all the DSTs in the league. Either one team knows something we don’t, or is just trying to troll us all…

 LEAGUE OVERVIEW:

Finally, the league overview. Every week, I’ll be presenting a league ranking based on an overall score I’ve been working on. It combines the following elements:

- Composite FPG: The total composite FPG of the “ideal” starting bench: QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE, DST, K, and then half of RB3+WR3 to approximate a FLEX.

- Starter Composite %ile, Weighted: This is a weighted average of each starter’s composite %ile rank. Each position is weighted by Mitch Kiper’s secret blend of herbs and spices. The weighting is meant to reflect each position’s proportional contribution to total weekly score (i.e. a QB contributes more to total score than a TE, so QBs have more weighted value), and well as the relative value of having a top player at a position (i.e. the difference between RB #1 and RB #12 is much larger than the difference between QB #1 and QB #12, so RB has more value)

- Bench Composite %ile, Weighted: A weighted average to measure the strength of each team’s bench, using their highest players that are not in the “Starter” roster. 

The two charts below are the first weighted scores with their individual components, and then the unweighted %ile averages of each total roster, based on composite, current (projected for this week), and 3 year ppg.

Sunday is one of Mitch Kiper’s favorite days. Pancakes, beer shits, leftover pizza, leftover pizza shits… just by the sheer amount of extra time spent on the toilet, Sunday’s reputation as a day of R&R is well justified in Mitch Kiper’s book (coming out in 2019 to a self-publisher near you!).

But this Sunday was extra special, because there was a trade. A rare gem of a post-draft, pre-season trade, and an even rarer gem of a trade involving a 1st round draft pick and a… DEFENSE?! What was Haymitch Golden thinking? Are the Nickelsnatchers going to have to move on to their 3rd GM in 4 seasons? Mitch Kiper had to dig. He’s sure the Kai tumblr won’t want him spilling their secrets, but Mitch Kiper has never let fear stop him. He charges forward against the wind, a solo knight on a stable steed of numbers and hair concrete.

This article will take the perspective of Gakusei Kai, trying to examine their reasoning in making such a move, while also attempting to poke as many holes in their reasoning as possible. We’d do the same for Hammerfest, but frankly, their perspective is easier to understand, and this article is going to be long enough as is. KAI’s mind is a dangerous, busy place.

So before we start tackling numbers, Mitch Kiper wants to acknowledge that there are a few vague, circumstantial arguments for and against picking a top tier defense that he does not want to address, because they will take too much effort to quantify, or in some cases are not realistically quantifiable. Most of them deal with opportunity cost, and how selecting a top defense vs. a 1st round pick affects the other choices a team can make.

- PRO: OPPORTUNITY COST (BENCH SPACE) – Signing a top tier defense allows a dynasty team to start them nearly every week without worry. This eliminates the need for any more than two defenses on a total roster, and could even allow for 1 defense + a streamer on their bye week. This allows a valuable roster slot to be used on an extra developmental RB or WR, instead of a mix of D/STs that you can only hope will catch the hot hand.

- PRO: OPPORTUNITY COST (WAIVER WIRE) – Waiver slots are valuable, even more so now that the total roster size is expanded. There will be fewer chances to pick up quality players mid-season. Streaming defenses is an unnecessary drain on a team’s waiver priorities, all to select from a pool of the worst D/STs and hope that their matchup will give them a slight bonus over what is quite honestly a very low points floor.

- CON: OPPORTUNITY COST (DRAFT) – Because of the roster expansion, there will be fewer chances to pick up valuable players mid-season, which means the best way to cheap talent will be through the draft. Trading away a 1st rounder gives up one of KAI’s best chances to land a star.  

- CON: YOU JUST TRADED FOR A F***ING DEFENSE, YOU MORON: Who is Mitch Kiper to argue against conventional wisdom? Common fantasy knowledge says “Don’t ever do this stupid thing, you dipshit.” Either KAI has a genius contrarian idea, or they are throwing darts into the wind. Hopefully the following analysis will give us a clearer picture of the potential value (or lack thereof) of such a trade.

PART ONE: Player-to-player Comparisons – Raw Points (using the Composite FPts method)

This first section outlays one of the strongest cases in KAI’s favor. In it, we’re going to do a blind comparison of several players in the NFL, selected for various reasons, but mostly for having similar Composite Points totals.

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Reminder: Composite Points is a blend of 2018 CBS Projections + 3 Year Avg Point Totals. Mitch Kiper prefers this measure because it gives value to past performance, while also allowing for projections based on new roster situations, rookies, etc. The one caveat to this statistic is that all rookies are given a “0” avg. by CBS, since they have no historical data. Therefore, Mitch Kiper has had to weigh the composite points projections slightly towards projections so rookies can be adequately ranked by %ile.

The projection vs. historical average weighting blend is designed so a top rookie can be ranked as reasonably and realistically as possible—i.e. Saquon Barkley has an 85% composite percentile, which places him in the top 18 RBs, and in Mitch Kiper’s “Starter” category. Typical rookies are also more or less reasonably ranked by composite, i.e. Royce Freeman, who has a 58% composite, placing him in the “Spot Start/Flex” category for this current year. Obviously there is going to be some potential undercutting (Saquon could easily be top 10 or even top 5), but the point of Composite FPts is to be conservative as a measure.

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So without any other pre-explanation, here are the players Mitch Kiper has chosen to compare:

At first glance, without seeing any of the names or positions, we can see that the players are all reasonably similar from a raw points production, aside from the last one (who is included for reasons we’ll see later). They are all in the top 4-6% of the NFL player pool in terms of points production. One of these fantasy players is the Jaguars D/ST (obviously). But who are the others? Are they scrubs, average fantasy performers, or players that others wouldn’t scoff at trading a 1st round pick for? How does the Jaguars points production match up to other fantasy players, and does it even come close to 1st rounder production?

Let’s start pulling back the curtain with the top 3:

Here we have several extremely high performers: #2 OVR TE Rob Gronkowski, and two WRs, Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton, who are in the top 15% of all rostered Dynosteve players. This places them in Mitch Kiper’s “Starter” category—not stud must-starts, but solid players who outperform most of the league on a week-to-week basis, and should only be benched in rare matchup circumstances.

Mitch Kiper believes all three players here are worth 1st round picks. In fact, past league chats with anonymous team sources have proven that at least two of these players’ owners won’t accept an offer for these players involving anything less than a 1st round pick, plus additional consideration.

And then of course we have T.Y. Hilton, who has actually been involved in a 1st Round pick trade before.

Obviously there were other pieces, but when you look at what LONG gave up for the players he received, there’s more or less enough here to ascribe at least one low 1st round pick’s value to T.Y. Hilton.

Just to recap: you can argue the individual cases, but at least one of these players is worth an undisputed 1st round pick trade, and they all score in similar Composite Points range—their 3 year averages combined with 2018 projections—to the Jaguars D/ST.

Let’s move on to the next section of the list.

Here we have three players who have actually been selected with 1st round picks: Saquon Barkley (2018 1.01), Dalvin Cook (2017 1.04), and O.J. Howard (2017 1.08). For reference sake, let’s remember that the pick traded away by KAI to HAMM was a 2019 YESH 1st Rounder. Currently, Mitch Kiper projects YESH to come in 2nd place. Based on his roster composition, It would take a dramatic change (admittedly not unprecedented) for YESH to fall to the toilet bracket in the coming year.

Based on these composite numbers alone, the Jaguars D/ST contributes enough raw points over the course of a season to match up and even surpass some of the best 1st round picks you can make—and way more than even the above-average picks (i.e. O.J. Howard).

Now when we look at recent draftees with Composite FPts, we have to take it with a grain of salt. Their numbers are depressed by a lack of 3 Year average. Granted, this is done slightly on purpose, because rookie projections are routinely overblown. Based on these composite projections, Barkley and Cook are projected to average 10 ppw.

“Well that’s horse shit,” you might be saying, “Both RBs have a significant chance of outperforming those numbers. Composite is unnecessarily tanking them because of the lack of 3-year data. Gronk, Amari, and T.Y. we get, but the Jaguars do not realistically match up to these young players.”

Fair point, you. Let’s pull some former picks from the 2nd half of the 2016 rookie draft (the former rookies who have the most historical data, outside of our auction draft), and see how their composite stacks up.

These were the final five picks of the 2016 1st round. How do they look against our block of comparison players, and more specifically, the Jaguars?

Michael Thomas significantly outscores our players. He would be an argument against giving up a 1st round pick for a defense. Jordan Howard lends credence to the claim, too, though his advantage over the Jaguars in raw points is less than 1.0 PPW. The other players, the law firm of Boyd Prosise & Perkins? One is a Dynosteve Free Agent, and the other two are kept likely as handcuffs, considering their playing time thus far hasn’t materialized in a significant way. Both have newer, more promising rookies in front of them on their NFL depth charts, mitigating any future upside as well.

Of the picks in the 1.07-1.12 range, there was a 20% chance of reaching a PPW level to match the Jaguars D/ST. There was a 20% chance of matching it, and a 60% chance of failure. The Jaguars can perform worse, but they can’t get cut by the NFL. The chances of the Jaguars falling enough to be cut by a Dynosteve team is also unlikely for at least a season or two. The only way to acquire them would be by trade. Some may never want to give away that chance at a Michael Thomas; but when the other likelihoods are matching the Jags performance or worse, the trade doesn’t seem half bad from a raw points perspective.

“But wait,” you might be saying, “Raw points don’t tell the whole story. Don’t you, Mitch Kiper, always argue that %ile, as well as point differential in position battles, are also important? What are the negative aspects to the KAI side of the trade that you’re ignoring?

Good question, you. I do have answers for your concerns, and some strong arguments against the KAI trade to balance against this long Part One. However, that will have to wait until tomorrow, for the next part in the GAKUSEI KAI-HAMMERFEST TRADE ANAYLSIS MINI-SERIES.

The following article was written weeks ago, in a semi-delirious state. Mitch Kiper has since recovered, and after a long journey of self-reflection, decided to edit this to the best of his ability and publish “as is.”:

Greetings from Midway airport in Chicago, where Mitch Kiper has been upset at an astronomical level by the removal of Potbelly’s, which has been replaced by a shop called “Home Run Pizza,” a White Sox themed bar that doesn’t even serve Giordano’s or Gino’s or anything not resembling cardboard covered in candle wax. For those who are interested, Mitch Kiper had a sad hot dog. Chicago Midway is officially the worst airport in the Greater Chicago Area.

Speaking of things that were at one point officially the worst, welcome to the preseason analysis for everyone’s favorite Friendzone Fenoms!

2017 – High Scoring, but Keeping Things Friendly

The Fenoms had one of the more interesting seasons last year, scoring 4th overall in total points, but placing 9th overall in the standings. For those who are paying attention (mainly Thatcher, Will and Ben, because Mitch Kiper doesn’t trust that anyone else actually reads this), the Fenoms scored enough where on points alone they should be in the winners bracket, but ended up in the toilet bowl instead. Even though the Fenoms scored enough to be a title contender, they kept things friendly and decided “Nah, let other people have the glory. We’ll just chill and discuss our dreams on the beach.” 

How did this happen? Or, as Will once said in a shitty student film, “What’s the dealio, Emilio?” Well let’s take a look.

Our First Clue: Expected Scores vs. Actual

What you’re looking at above is a comparison of Actual Standings to the Expected Points for a team in that slot. (This was calculated by finding the difference between the highest and lowest weekly averages in the league, and dividing into 12 equally distributed “Expected Weekly Scores”)

Right away, you can see that the biggest overall disparities belonged to the Yeshivas, who seemingly overperformed their weekly average. A 2nd place team, according to Mitch Kiper’s Expected Weekly Score™, should score in the range of 110.48 per week. YESH scored 99.01 per week.

We see the opposite picture when we look at the Fenoms. A 9th place team should be around the 90 point mark, if life were fair and Chicago Midway still had Potbelly’s. But they don’t, and the Fenoms had to fight their way out of a toilet while the likes of Gakusei Kai managed to play in the Midwest Living Bowl.

Yet as we all know, Total Points aren’t the whole story. And as we all remember from the most important of tests—the eye test—the Fenoms were not as strong a team as their total points indicated, mainly due to their reliance on the…

Apologies, Mitch Kiper’s resident artist thought I said to make a logo on Adobe Pumpkinshop. Who the hell hears it as Pumpkinshop?

When the Cheefs went off, so did the Fenoms. When they didn’t, the Fenoms tanked. The questions for us are: 1). can we demonstrate this through stats, and 2). Do our Mitch Kiper Roster Ratings™® have any metrics that could better predict the standings, even more than total points or points projections? Answers: Yes, and Maybe! (See what I did there? It’s called dangling a hook to keep you reading.)

Weekly Deviation: Demonstrating Jordan’s Wild Swings

Not to be confused with his wild swinging; that crazy guy.

I want to put this up top: part of this is an exercise to show objectively the limits of grading a team by Total Points. Obviously, points are important—they are how you win. But the strength of a team should and cannot be measured by Total Points alone. If they could, Neil would be winning a lot more (Sorry Neil.)

To hammer the point home with a simple example, look at the following two hypothetical teams after a hypothetical Week 3.

Team A: Averages 89 points per week.

Team B: Averages 100 points per week

Right away, you’d assume Team B was better. But then we look closer…

Team A: Scored 66, 100, 100 in the first three weeks. (+/- 34 max score v. min)

Team B: Scored 150, 75, 75 in the first three weeks.  (+/-75 max score v. min)

Total points, and the weekly averages that we derive from them, are not the whole picture. They are a piece of the puzzle. Another important piece is weekly deviation (hat tip to the one and only FLEAFLICKER for calculating this over the years in my other league, and inspiring me to try it out in Dynosteve).

So how do the Fenoms Fare when it comes to deviation? Here’s how they stack up against the rest of Dynosteve 2017:

 Well shit. As we can see from the chart above, a low standard deviation is in fact NOT a pre-cursor to success, nor for failure. The results are pretty widespread. There’s really no correlation at all between raw standard deviation and the success of a team. Some successful teams have wild swings, and vice versa. All this really teaches us is that while we thought the Fenoms were a boom-or-bust team, they had one of the lowest deviation rates in the league. Go figure.

So what’s the story here?

Based on weeks 10 and 11, it looks like a simple diagnosis of “They got fucked,” something Fenoms owner Dr. Rees is used to saying, although usually it involves an inanimate object of some kind, usually in tandem with an anus and an X-ray. He’s got a weird job.

2018 Outlook: Are the Fenoms for Real, or was Last Year a Fenomenal Fluke?

Considering I couldn’t even explain why the Fenoms did so poorly last year other than blind bad luck, there’s very little I can do to predict the Fenom’s 2018 performance.  Yet even though my deviation theory was debunked (something that happens to Mitch Kiper from time to time), I’m Mitch Kiper, so I’m going to plow ahead with a prediction anyway, with all the unearned confidence of my namesake.

This is my prediction for the league standings, based on a complicated predictive score that mixes Projected PPW with 3 Year Average PPW, and the %ile ranks of each team’s starters and bench. Don’t ask how or why I think this will work. I’m not sure it will, but I’m going to blindly stick to my guns, and use it to figure out where I think the Fenoms will land.

What’s actually interesting is that the Fenoms potentially have the best starters in the entire league (highest %ile rank of Dynosteve), yet a middling bench (7th). Yet even with the highest percentile rank of starters, his composite points prediction is low. This would imply that his top-tier players are in low scoring positions.

On a related note, the Juneboshers have a weirdly low %ile for their starters, yet a very high composite PPW prediction. So how is it that the Fenoms have the highest average starter %ile, yet a low PPW prediction, and the Juneboshers have a lower starter %ile than half the league, but are predicted to score more points than all but Goose?

… Because Mitch Kiper has a flaw in his system©.

No, it’s not lactose—well, not at the moment. It’s that he’s ranking all positions equally when it comes to %ile rank, i.e., top tier %ile TEs are given equal weight to top tier %ile RBs and WRs. To be fair, this is part of his thesis: a 2 point differential in a TE battle is just as important as a 2 point differential. What is not being accounted for at the moment, however, is the massive disparity that can pop up in the RB and WR categories. The difference between a 95th percentile RB and an 80th percentile RB is much more pronounced than the difference between a 95th and 80th percentile TE. Case in point:

This is a flaw Mitch Kiper will have to adjust, so he can better assess team strength and his future predictions. For now, though, we’ll work with the numbers we’ve got. And those numbers say… *sigh, I hate typing these words*… the Fenoms aren’t half bad, and will likely land in the middle of the pack.

… With one caveat!

The Fenom’s lack of bench strength seems to imply that a single injury will derail them. Aka, if Tyreek Hill or Kareem Hunt goes down, so do the phenoms.  ZIMBAB or YESH do not have this problem, because they back up their great starters with phenomenal benches. Also worth noting: Neil. Poor guy really never gets a break.