You know. Snow letting Haymitch survive the games never really made sense to me. That boy was so rebellious, murdering his entire family risked him burning everything to the ground just as much as him collapsing into the depressed, suicidal man we meet in the original trilogy.
I used to hold on to the belief that Snow purposefully kept Haymitch around to torment him for „i hate the covey so much“ reasons. And there‘s probably some of that. But this man hasn‘t been in power for close to 40 years by being a fool and so easily influenced.
So follow me on my ramble as I try to figure this out.
1) Right after the flooding:
Something slipped onto the live cameras while Haymitch flooded the arena. Something that‘d made some people maybe suspect that Haymitch was up to more than just some harmless rascal mischief. If there‘s a five minute delay in the districts I‘m sure there‘s a five minute delay in the arena. But maybe something still slipped by. So the gamemakers targeting him right then might emphasize that. Then again… they targeted Ampert right then. And he was doing the rebelliousness right along with Haymitch. Maybe Haymitch not getting targeted soon after the flooding simply had to do with the fact that Ampert already had mutts preprogrammed for him, and the gamemakers would need a little bit to program some mutts for Haymitch. Ampert was always gonna die by squirrel.
2) The „they needed time to program mutts“ theory falls apart during the next part of the games. Haymitch is alone. Trapped in a gamemaker maze trying to find the North of the arena. What better time to torture him to death gruesomely? I guess one explanation for this is that the gamemakers were all scrambling to make sure the arena didn‘t combust while making sure the cameras didn‘t catch any of it. So any deaths that happened between Ampert (the arena flooding) and the porcupine attack was natural and not gamemaker orchestrated. Because they were so preoccupied.
3) Haymitch takes out two careers. His popularity with the audience soars. People love him. Leaving Snow and the gamemakers hesitant to take him out just yet. He‘s also with Maysilee now, who has been proven to be lethal with her blowgun. She‘s most likely also popular. For the sake of the show, they let the alliance be.
4) Once only Haymitch, Maysilee, Maritte, Silka and Wellie are left, the gamemakers know. Maritte or Silka will be the victor. Haymitch and Maysilee have been talking so much shit. And Wellie? She‘s dying up that tree. For her to win either the other tributes wound each other so mortally they all die before Wellie does, or the gamemakers would need to take out all four of the other tributes themselves. And why do that? What a let down ending for the 50th Hunger Games. But then Maritte and Maysilee kill the gamemaker teens. And therefore immediately eliminate themselves from being potential victors and mark themselves for death.
5) Haymitch‘s popularity wouldn‘t save him from here on out. I‘m sure Maritte was hugely popular (girl scored a Katniss level 11 in training). They targeted her anyway. So I think what was going on here, was indeed a mixture between „We need an epic final showdown to end the 50th. It can‘t be Maysilee or Maritte, and Wellie isn‘t going to give us that anyway. So we leave Haymitch alive for that. Haymitch froze and didn’t attack the gamemakers. IF he wins… he can propably be subdued into implicite submission. The other two? Absolutely not.
Here I think Snow‘s weird fascination with Haymitch also comes into play. We’ve seen Snow do silly things filled with hubris to prove his own little theory of „everyone kills everyone when it comes down to it“ before. That’s what the whole „two can win! oops nevermind, guess you have to kill eachother afterall!“ business was all about in the originals. He wanted to prove to people that this is what humanity is. But he also wanted to prove it to himself, especially because Katniss was covey, projecting Lucy Gray onto her. I‘m not saying the „two can win“ came in to play exlusively because of Katniss. Afterall, Cato and Clove could have been the last survivors. But oh was it convenient when Peeta and Katniss were the final pair.
In Haymitch‘s case though, it may not even entirely a covey motivated thing. At least not as much as with Katniss. Afterall, Haymitch isn‘t covey. Yes the covey connection got his attention. But now? Now I think it‘s about Haymitch himself. Snow wants to manipulate this kid. That‘s what the milk pitcher was. The milk wasn‘t an outright „kill yourself“ order. It was a way to trap Haymitch. Because if he drank the milk, that would ruin his image of „I‘m doing my absolute best to save Wellie“ and if he gave it to her… well his image would be intact, but Wellie would die. Snow wanted to watch Haymitch struggle. He wanted to trap him psychologically. I do think Snow thought Haymitch would end up drinking it. He‘s seen how much of a bleeding heart Haymitch is and how attached he gets to the kids this entire games through. Haymitch would rather mess up his image than kill Wellie.
6) Once Wellie dies, the final showdown begins. The Gamemakers don‘t want to intervene here. They want to show this entire battle and if they send in mutts to target Haymitch that would be so, SO obvious. So they let it play out.
7) Haymitch is the victor. And they need their victor. Well shit. Now Snow REALLY has to do everything in his power to make sure he breaks this 16 year old‘s mind (in the direction of submission, not setting the world on fire) And you know what? Him hesitating to kill gamemakers, plus his bleeding heart? Doesn‘t make it seem all that impossible. Snow breaks Haymitch. And is so confident in his success… he ignores the man entirely. For the next 25 years.
Too bad for him he didn‘t break Haymitch to 100%. I believe it was Haymitch‘s bleeding heart that woke him up again in the end. Some people believe that Haymitch was involved in the rebellion for a long time. I don‘t. I think he knew about it (he got many invitations from Plutarch over the years) but never actually joined. Until after the 74th. Burdock‘s daughter with his Sweetheart‘s braids, Lenore Dove‘s voice, Maysilee‘s pin. Plus an actual decent chance at winning? That couldn‘t not wake up his old instinct of „keep the others alive in the arena“. And when Katniss pulled out those berries? Haymitch was going to do everything in his power to make sure she did not end up like him. That she‘d have a better future than him. But she never, ever would now. Not while the capitol still stands. Not while the sun keeps rising on the reaping.