#cycle trading

PRE-SUMMARY Stocks broke below consolidation on Wednesday but found support at the 10 day moving average and closed higher on Thursday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day moving average and spent several sessions consolidating below the 7600 level, helping to allow the moving average time to catch up to price. Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday. However, sellers…

Pre-Summary The Miners reclaimed the 10 day MA after extending their daily cycle decline into day 47. The Miners broke below the day 41 low on Thursday to extend their daily cycle decline. Thursday was day 47, placing the Miners very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  However, instead of delivering bearish follow through, the Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the…

Stocks were rejected twice at the 10 day moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday. That repeated rejection signaled that upside momentum was fading — and Thursday’s bearish follow through confirmed it. Stocks broke lower, extending the daily cycle decline as traders moved to reduce risk. From a cycle perspective, this type of rejection at the 10 day moving average is often an early warning that…

Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation to close below the 10 day moving average on Tuesday. This action sets up a left-translated daily cycle formation and signals the start of the daily cycle decline. We should now see the 10 day moving average turn lower as the cycle decline progresses. Since emerging from the yearly cycle low back in April, stocks have consistently found support near the…

Stocks became stretched above the 10 day moving average last week on day 13. Since then, the market has been consolidating, allowing the 10-day MA to catch up to price. This pause has helped relieve short-term overbought conditions while maintaining structure within the daily uptrend. Stocks remain in a confirmed daily uptrend. A bullish breakout from the current consolidation would indicate a…

XLE formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday, closing below the 50 day moving average. That close sets up the potential for a left-translated daily cycle formation, suggesting the recent rally may have already peaked early within the cycle. Despite the weakness, XLE is still holding above the 10 day MA on Tuesday. This shows there is still some…

Stocks dropped 2.71% on October 10 to print their lowest point on day 28, placing them squarely within the timing band for a DCL. After consolidating that drop for nine sessions, stocks finally formed a swing low on Friday — signaling day 28 as the DCL. With that, the daily uptrend remains intact. A swing low forming above the upper daily cycle band confirms a cycle band buy signal, and for now,…

The previous ICL was stretched at 40 weeks.   So it is possible to see a shortened weekly cycle, which helps to balance out the weekly cycle counts. The dollar formed a weekly swing low and closed above the 10 week MA this week so we will label week 11 as an early ICL.  The dollar  is currently in a weekly downtrend.  The dollar will continue in its weekly downtrend unless it closes back up above…