#intermediate cycle

PRE-SUMMARY Gold formed a swing low after printing a low on day 41 deep in its timing band. Reclaiming the 10 day MA and 50 day MA would support a DCL. Gold continues finding support near the 4500 level. Gold printed its lowest point on Wednesday. While Wednesday could still be interpreted as day 12 of a failed daily cycle, the bullish divergence on the oscillators continues to support the view…

PRE-SUMMARY The dollar signaled a weekly cycle band buy signal last week after reclaiming 2 key weekly moving averages. However, weakening price action is now placing focus back on the 10 week MA. The dollar formed a weekly swing low and closed back above both the 50 week moving average and the 10 week moving average last week. From a cycle perspective, with the dollar currently in a weekly…

Stocks were rejected at the 7000 resistance level and closed below the 10 day moving average on Tuesday, day 10. That rejection was followed by consecutive lower closes on Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday, stocks broke below the 50 day moving average and undercut the day 38 low. Breaking below the day 38 low forms a failed daily cycle and signals that the intermediate cycle decline is now in…

Stocks have now completed the first daily cycle of the second intermediate cycle, and the timing implications are becoming increasingly important. January marks month 9 of the current yearly cycle, which places equities firmly inside the historical window where yearly cycle declines begin to emerge. At the same time, stocks have entered their second intermediate cycle of the year, shifting the…

Summary Stocks have confirmed the daily cycle decline. The daily uptrend has ended; a daily downtrend is now in place. A break below the lower daily cycle band signals the start of the intermediate (weekly) cycle decline. Focus now shifts to 6700 as potential support for the DCL. Stocks closed below the 10 day moving average on Friday and delivered bearish follow-through on Tuesday after…

Stocks are moving deeper into territory where multiple cycle degrees start to overlap. From a big-picture perspective, both the intermediate cycle and the yearly cycle are approaching timing windows that historically matter. With stocks completing week 5 of the second intermediate cycle of the year, the focus shifts to how this cycle develops relative to the broader yearly structure. When…

Summary Stocks continue to consolidate below 6900 resistance Daily trend remains up, but momentum has weakened Close below the 10 day moving average raises left-translation risk 50 day moving average is the key downside level to monitor Daily structure now has implications for the intermediate cycle Stocks continue to consolidate below the 6900 resistance level, with price essentially…

On Wednesday, day 13, stocks became stretched above the 10 day moving average. This type of extension often leads to short-term consolidation, helping the 10 day MA catch up to price. However, stocks formed a swing high on Thursday. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the 10 day MA, that would set up a potential left-translated daily cycle formation — a structure that can…