#cycle analysis

PRE-SUMMARY Stocks broke below consolidation on Wednesday but found support at the 10 day moving average and closed higher on Thursday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day moving average and spent several sessions consolidating below the 7600 level, helping to allow the moving average time to catch up to price. Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday. However, sellers…

PRE-SUMMARY XLE formed a swing low after printing its lowest point on day 29, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. XLE printed its lowest point on Friday, day 29, placing the ETF in its timing band for a daily cycle low.  XLE formed a swing low on Monday as buyers responded from the recent low. While the swing low is an important first step, confirmation will be needed before…

PRE-SUMMARY Gold formed a swing low and closed back above the 10 day moving average, signaling day 46 as the daily cycle low. Gold continued lower into Thursday’s session, printing its lowest point on day 46 and placing the metal deep into its timing band for a daily cycle low.  From a cycle perspective, gold found support at the rising 200 day moving average and then formed a swing low on…

Pre-Summary The Miners reclaimed the 10 day MA after extending their daily cycle decline into day 47. The Miners broke below the day 41 low on Thursday to extend their daily cycle decline. Thursday was day 47, placing the Miners very deep in their timing band for a DCL.  However, instead of delivering bearish follow through, the Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the…

PRE-SUMMARY XLE signaled a daily cycle decline after breaking below the 10 day MA.  XLE formed a bearish reversal last week on Wednesday, day 23. XLE then formed a swing high on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday. Tuesday’s decline pushed XLE below the 10 day moving average, signaling the daily cycle decline. From a cycle perspective, XLE should now go on to turn the 10…

PRE-SUMMARY BTC reversed back above the 50 day MA after briefly breaking below the lower daily cycle band. A close above the 10 day MA would support labeling day 55 as the DCL. BTC closed below both the 50 day moving average and the lower daily cycle band on Friday, day 54, to extend the daily cycle decline. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ended the prior daily uptrend and signaled the…

PRE-SUMMARY Gold formed a swing low after printing a low on day 41 deep in its timing band. Reclaiming the 10 day MA and 50 day MA would support a DCL. Gold continues finding support near the 4500 level. Gold printed its lowest point on Wednesday. While Wednesday could still be interpreted as day 12 of a failed daily cycle, the bullish divergence on the oscillators continues to support the view…

PRE-SUMMARY Stocks signaled a daily cycle decline before reclaiming the 10 day MA. The reversal now supports labeling day 34 as the DCL Stocks closed below the 10 day moving average on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline.  Tuesday marked day 34 for the current daily cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL.  From a cycle perspective, stocks should have then gone on to turn the…