#cycle analysis

Pre-Summary Gold has reclaimed the 10-day moving average after forming a swing low, building evidence that the current decline may have reached its Daily Cycle Low. At the time of this writing, a close above the 10-day moving average is still needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. As we discussed previously, Gold has entered the Daily Cycle Low timing band and outlined the evidence needed to…

Pre-Summary Stocks rejected resistance near 7575 last week, forming a swing high before closing below both the 10-day and 50-day moving averages. The daily cycle has now entered its declining phase, shifting attention toward where the next Daily Cycle Low (DCL) will develop. Stocks reached resistance near 7575 last Wednesday before forming a swing high on Thursday. Friday’s close below both the…

Pre-Summary Bonds signaled a Daily Cycle Low this week, but the daily downtrend remains intact. This chart demonstrates why a new cycle does not automatically signal a new trend. The decline extended into Day 39 before bonds formed a swing low and closed back above the 10-day moving average. That combination signaled Day 39 as the Daily Cycle Low. Although a new daily cycle has begun, the…

Pre-Summary Earlier this week, the Dollar appeared to have signaled its Daily Cycle Low after breaking above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line. Wednesday’s decline changed that framework, extending the daily cycle instead. Thursday’s rally eased the parameters for forming a new swing low, leaving the Dollar hunting its Daily Cycle Low once again. Earlier this week, we…

Pre-Summary Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28 and has since begun to recover. This week’s rally has carried price back above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, providing the first evidence that an Intermediate Cycle Low may be developing. However, additional confirmation is still needed before Week 28 can be labeled as the ICL. Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28, placing it in…

Pre-Summary Saturday we noted that the Dollar had been consolidating below the 10-day moving average while holding above the 100.56 support level. Monday’s breakout above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line provided the evidence needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. An equally important lesson is how the Daily Cycle Low migrated from Day 25 to Day 31 as the consolidation…

Pre-Summary Over the past three updates, we’ve followed NVDA as it progressed from finding support at the 200-day moving average to signaling a new Daily Cycle Low. Friday’s breakout completed the next stage of that progression. NVDA closed above the upper daily cycle band, ending the daily downtrend, beginning a new daily uptrend, and signaling that the Intermediate Cycle Low has been…

Pre-Summary Most traders assume the Daily Cycle Low must occur at the lowest price following a cycle peak. While that is often true, there are exceptions. The Dollar is currently demonstrating one of those exceptions as consolidation continues to shift the likely Daily Cycle Low away from the initial low and toward the apex of the pattern. After forming a swing high, the Dollar closed below the…