#intermediate cycle decline

Summary XLE was rejected at key resistance near 46 A swing high and close below the 10 day MA signaled the daily cycle decline Bearish follow-through pushed XLE below the 50 day MA and the prior DCL Failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline Energy has transitioned into a daily downtrend On 12/04 we highlighted that Energy (XLE) was running into key resistance at the 46…

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday, setting up the potential for day 27 to mark the daily cycle low (DCL). But on Thursday, the market delivered a bearish surprise. Stocks initially broke above both the 50 day moving average and the 10 day moving average on Thursday. At that point, it appeared that day 27 was the DCL. However, stocks were rejected by the converging 50 day moving average and…

Prior to Thursday, stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 27, placing them in the early part of their timing band for a daily cycle low (DCL). Stocks quickly responded by forming a swing low on Wednesday. A close above the 10 day moving average would have allowed us to label day 27 as the DCL. Then came the catalyst: Nvidia reported a strong earnings beat Wednesday evening, along with…

Stocks were rejected twice at the 10 day moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday. That repeated rejection signaled that upside momentum was fading — and Thursday’s bearish follow through confirmed it. Stocks broke lower, extending the daily cycle decline as traders moved to reduce risk. From a cycle perspective, this type of rejection at the 10 day moving average is often an early warning that…