#contrarians

Infection control in healthcare.

My public comment to the CDC HICPAC Committee.

Direct link to my comment in the stream.

Direct link to the start of the whole comment period.

Day 2 of the meeting link, with another session of public comments then the vote.

https://substack.com/@sarahkendzior/note/c-213651119

28⁰C/83⁰F, cloudy with some rain patches This ain’t a post on astronomy. Is this is even real? The better question should be, how do we know if YOU are even real? We know it’s real because we can see more or less the same thing nearly every night almost anywhere. For centuries. We know it’s real because the bigger the telescope used and the further away from light pollution we are, the more…

Their success in limiting new housing in the West Village hasn’t just kept the neighborhood from expanding; it’s helped empty it out. The neighborhood that Jacobs fought to preserve in the 1960s was already shrinking. Jacobs celebrated the fact that her neighborhood’s population, which peaked at 6,500 in 1910, had dropped to just 2,500 by 1950. This represented, she argued, “unslumming”—what today we would call gentrification. As households more than doubled the space they occupied, amid rising standards of living, the neighborhood would have needed to replace its existing townhouses with apartment buildings that were at least twice as tall, just to maintain its population. Instead, the neighborhood kept its townhouses and lost most of its population. Despite her strident insistence that not a sparrow be displaced from the Village of the ’60s, Jacobs cast the displacement of a dynamic working-class community of immigrant renters in the 1950s by a stable, gentrified population of professional-class homeowners as a triumph. “The key link in a perpetual slum is that too many people move out of it too fast—and in the meantime dream of getting out,” she wrote. Jacobs prized stability over mobility, preferring public order over the messiness of dynamism.

Bitcoin Contrarians Win As Rebound Occurs Against Crowd Expectations: Santiment

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Data from Santiment suggests that the latest Bitcoin rebound took place after most investors had given up on the idea of it happening.

Bitcoin Observes Rebound After “Buy The Dip” Crowd Goes Silent

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, calls for buying the dip had mostly disappeared right before the actual rebound. The indicator of interest here is the “social volume,” which measures the total number of social media text documents that mention a given topic or term.

The text documents here refer to a collection of posts/threads derived from various social media platforms like Reddit, Twitter, Telegram, and 4chan. Note that the metric only cares about whether such posts make at least one mention of the given term, and not exactly how many times they do it.

This means that even if a thread mentions the topic several times, its contribution to the social volume still remains one unit. The benefit of this restriction is that it provides a better picture about the trend being followed in the whole sector, as only a few posts with a lot of discussion can’t skew the total in their favor this way.

Now, in the context of the current discussion, cryptocurrency-related talks where users call out to “buy the dip” are of relevance. So, Santiment has taken the social volume of the entire digital asset sector and has then filtered it specifically using terms related to “buy” and “dip.”

Here is a chart that shows the social volume related to this topic broken down for each of the major social media platforms:

The value of the metric seems to have had a surge a couple of days back | Source: Santiment on Twitter

As displayed in the above graph, right after Bitcoin and the rest of the market had crashed due to the news of SEC suing Binance breaking out, the social volume for discussions related to these terms had observed a large spike on Reddit and Twitter.

This would imply that users had become hyped and had started calling for buying the dip as soon as the price plunge had occurred. As it turned out, however, there wasn’t any price rebound just yet, and BTC rather continued to go down after the market had become excited.

As the coin continued to move mostly sideways over the next day, though, the discussions related to buying the dip started to die out. That’s when the actual rebound in the asset’s price took place, seemingly catching the mainstream crowd off guard.

Historically, Bitcoin and other assets have usually been more likely to show moves in a direction opposite to the majority’s view. The more lopsided the crowd gets toward one direction, the more probable the market becomes to show the reverse kind of move.

Because of this reason, the followers of “contrarian investing” believe that it’s best to buy whenever the crowd is fearful and ideal to sell when greed is king in the market. It seems like this Bitcoin rebound would have worked into the favor of these contrarian traders.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,600, down 2% in the last week.

BTC has declined since the recovery above $27,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Santiment.net

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<< Central to Mann’s argument in both “Thoughts in Wartime” and “Reflections” is a distinction between “civilization” and “culture.” The terms are often used interchangeably, but Mann insists that they “are not only not the same, they are opposites.” Civilization “involves reason, enlightenment, moderation, moral education, skepticism,” whereas culture represents “the sublimation of the demonic.” As such, it “belongs entirely to the other side … a deeper, darker, impassioned world.” Every nation has a distinctive culture, but not all nations are civilized. Culture tends to prize its particular local character; civilization seeks to make itself universal.

In Mann’s view, German culture’s special fate was to exist in opposition to the civilization of Latin Europe, with its “Roman idea of unification.” That unifying idea had, over the centuries, taken the form of the Roman Empire, the Catholic Church and the Napoleonic army. Now it took the form of liberal democracy. “I am deeply convinced,” Mann writes, “that the German people will never be able to love political democracy … and that the much decried ‘authoritarian state’ is and remains the one that is proper and becoming to the German people, and the one they basically want.”