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What's it like to make more than $110 billion in five weeks on just one S&P 500 stock? Ask the largest owners of Tesla (TSLA) stock.

The top 10 largest holders of Tesla stock, including top ETF and mutual fund providers like Vanguard and BlackRock (BLK) plus the Technoking Elon Musk himself, are collectively up $117 billion since the stock doubled from its 52-week (intraday) low on Jan. 6, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith.

That means just 10 investors made more on one stock — Tesla — in roughly five weeks than all investors made on 496 individual S&P 500 stocks during the same time. That's crazy money.

The run on Tesla stock is prompting some to toss out the "bubble" word. "Tesla's recent price cuts are a display of pricing power, cost superiority and could increase demand — but it could also negatively impact Tesla's future profitability," said Oktay Kavrak, product strategist at Leverage Shares.

Tesla's Run-Up Is One For S&P 500 History Books

It's not often to see so much value get created by a single stock so fast. But that's the story of the S&P's bounce this year following last year's beatdown.

Shares of Tesla are up more than 105% from their 52-week intraday low on Jan. 6. And they're up more than 85% from their closing price that day. That means all Tesla investors are up $305 billion from that low day's closing price. That's more of a market value gain than all but two other individual stocks in the S&P 500.

Yes, Apple is up more than $361.9 billion since then. And Microsoft is too, up $348.8 billion. But on a percentage basis, they're only up 18% and 21% respectively, or nowhere near Tesla's percentage gain.

And that's why some bubble talk is starting to perk up (although shares are still 46% below their 52-week closing high). Tesla closed Tuesday at 209.25. At that price, Tesla stock is already nearly 9% past the 192.63 a share analysts think it should be worth in 12 months.

Big Wins On Tesla

No investors are making as much money in this year's Tesla rally as Musk himself. Musk still owns 13% of the electric-car maker, more than anyone else, a lucrative move in 2023.

Musk has gained $40.7 billion in paper wealth on just his stock this year alone. No one comes even close. But Vanguard, the top holder of two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks, is bringing its ETF and index mutual fund investors along for the ride, too. The fund company's 6.9% stake in Tesla has gained nearly $21 billion in wealth on its position.

And rounding out the top three winners in No. 3 spot is BlackRock. The fund company's 5.6% stake in Tesla added more than $17 billion in market value just this year.

But while bears think Tesla is running too far, too fast, some mega-bulls exist. The most optimistic forecast for where Tesla stock will be in 12 months is 320 a share. If that's right, Tesla still has more than 53% upside from Tuesday's close.

That's not as impressive as the stock's run in the past five weeks, but none of these top Tesla stock investors will likely complain.

Big Tesla Investors Make A Fortune This Year

The Dow closed lower Thursday, as rising Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment even as the bulk of quarterly results continued to suggest corporate America is in better shape than feared.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.30% or 91 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.61%, and the the S&P 500 fell 0.85%.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to fresh 14-year highs as investors weighed up fresh remarks from Federal Reserve officials calling for the central bank to remain the course on rate hikes.

Citing a "disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation," Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said he expects interest rates will be “well above 4% by the end of the year.”

The remarks come as fewer-than-expected weekly jobless claims pointed to strength in the labor market, heightening concerns about ongoing wage growth.

“Demand for labor remains quite strong […] it remains the case that workers who are let go are still having a relatively easy time finding a new job,” Jefferies said in a note.

Tech stocks managed to cut losses but remained under pressure as rising Treasury yields make growth corners of the market including tech less attractive.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), however, bucked the trend to rise more than 4% after the tech giant reported quarterly results that beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), meanwhile, fell more than 7% after a mixed third-quarter results, though some on Wall Street touted optimism ahead for the EV maker after management said they are considering initiating a stock buyback.

“We are encouraged that management is considering a $5- $10B buyback and believe it is a constructive use of cash,” Oppenheimer said after lifting its price target on the stock to $436 from $432. “[We] believe depth of demand is outstripping most investor expectations, even when considering a looming recession,” it added.

The broader market was also pressured by a fall in travel stocks as investors weighed up quarterly results from airlines and railroad companies.

American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) reported quarterly earnings that beat estimates as travel demand continued to recover, but its shares fell more than 3%.

Railroad stocks were hurt by Union Pacific 's (NYSE:UNP) weaker outlook on carload growth and stock repurchases, which offset the quarterly results beat on the top line.

Elsewhere, AT&T Inc (NYSE:T) rallied more than 7% after the telecom reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue and lifted its outlook on full-year earnings to $2.50 from $2.46 a share previously.

The stumble in the broader market has coincided with wild swings in either direction, a pattern that isn't likely to let up anytime soon.

"Nifty50 has clearly surpassed our expectations after extending the relief move beyond 17,350. We may see Nifty50 heading towards 17,500-17600. But we reiterate, the market is not completely out of the woods yet. Hence, it’s advisable to stay light after nearing this zone," said Sameet Chavan of Angel One. NEW DELHI: Nifty50 on Thursday climbed for the second straight day, breaching the recent swing high of 17,324 and also the resistance of 17,350. The index reclaimed the 17,400 mark on a closing basis and formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. Analysts believe the ongoing recovery can extend to the level of 17,600. Support for the index is seen at 17,250 level.

https://stocktwits.com/brainmassfinance

"Nifty50 has clearly surpassed our expectations after extending the relief move beyond 17,350. We may see Nifty50 heading towards 17,500-17600. But we reiterate the market is not completely out of the woods yet. Hence, it’s advisable to stay light after nearing this zone," said Sameet Chavan of Angel One.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/BrainmassFinance/

The 50-pack index might have embarked on a sustainable pull back rally as it has decisively closed above its 100-day exponential moving average, whose value is placed around 17,145 level, said Mazhar Mohammad of Chartviewindia.in.

https://www.instagram.com/brainmassfinance/ "A sustenance of 17,149 level may lead to a higher target of 17,570-660. Critical moving averages like 50- and 20-day are present in this range. Unless the supplies coming out of this critical resistance point are completely absorbed, the trend may not turn in favour of the bulls. Meanwhile, if the current recovery is owing to the weekly expiry related factors, weakness shall reemerge which may initially lead to the test of recent corrective swing low of 16,782," Mohammad said. https://t.me/tradewithraaj

For the day, the index closed at 17,401.65, up 234.75 points or 1.37 per cent. Gaurav Ratnaparkhi of Sharekhan said the index has also broken out from an Inside Bar pattern on the daily chart and is now headed towards its key daily moving averages, which are near 17,620-17,650.

"If the index manages to surpass these crucial short term moving averages, it will unlock significant upside potential for itself. On the other hand, the near term support zone now shifts higher to 17,200-17,250," he said.

facebook.com/brainmassfinance Independent Analyst Manish Shah said if the last four days of trading is taken into account, the index has formed a Bullish Tower Bottom pattern, which is a bullish configuration.

While the names of market gurus like Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are known by nearly everyone in the investing community, there are several traders who generate exceptional returns but do not want to come in the limelight. One such name is Ed Seykota, who may be one of the only traders who also wrote and starred in musical performance of his trading strategy " The Whipsaw Song".

Although almost completely unknown to the investment world, Seykota’s achievements rank him as one of the best trend followers and traders of his time. Seykota believes a trader’s psychology is the most important part of operating any trading system.

As a trend follower and money manager, he amassed millions in the 1970s and 1980s for his investors. He is basically a mechanical trend following trader who built the majority of his systems around exponential moving averages, with some reliance on pattern recognition. Seykota has always kept a low profile and caught the public eye only after his interview in Jack Schwager’s 'Market Wizards' books. He began his trading career in the 1970s, when he was hired by a major brokerage firm. It was in that brokerage firm that Seykota developed one of the first commercialized trading systems for managing money in the futures market.

After a few disagreements regarding the way management was interfering with his system, Seykota decided to part ways with them. Investors over the years have learnt many invaluable lessons by following his trading philosophy. Let's look at some of the trading rules that he mentioned in an interview with Jack Schwager.

Cut your losses Seykota believes that the most important trading rule is to cut losses because protecting one's capital is the primary job of a trader. He feels making money should be the secondary goal in the priority list of traders and they should embrace trading losses. He believes to stay ahead in the trading business, traders need to learn to lose like winners which means accepting losses the moment the market refutes their trade idea.

"If you make the mistake of hoping for the market to turn around in your favor, you’ve already lost. The best way to embrace trading losses is to have a plan. Combine that with small bets and you’ll be lightyears ahead of other traders. If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses," he said in an interview in Jack Schwager’s 'Market Wizards' book series.

Seykota also believes that losing a trading position is aggravating, whereas losing one's nerve is devastating for a trading portfolio.

"The best way to ensure you never lose your nerve is to cut losses early. It’s one of the simplest ways to maintain your discipline and avoid emotional decision-making," he said.

Ride your winners

Seykota is of the view that trading isn’t about having a win rate of 70% or 80% but it comes down to how much investors make when they’re right and how much they lose when they’re wrong.

He feels the only way to achieve asymmetrical returns is to ride one's winners. Seykota feels trends tend to persist in all parts of life, and they also exist in the stock market. 

"Successful trend following is buying when you recognize a trend, and holding on until that trend has finally come to fruition and begins to change. Of course, once in a while, a trader is going to end up buying nearly the exact top in a market, but that's where risk management and stop losses come into play. The key to enjoying enormous returns in the stock market is riding out your winners, and being stubborn enough to hold onto positions to capture as much of the trend as possible," he said.

Seykota believes that investors make the mistake of holding on to their losers as it's uncomfortable to sell them. On the other hand, they sell their winners before they ever get big as they don't want those gains to erode.

Seykota is of the view that investors shouldn't get influenced by soothsayers and prognosticators as they provide fanatical calls that are often way out in the future and turn out to be eventually wrong.

"I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing”. The old timers, who talk about 'maybe there is a chance of so and so,' are often right and early," he said.

Keep bets small

Seykota feels that one of the best ways to keep emotions at bay while trading is to keep bets small by speculating with less than 10% of one's liquid net worth.

"Risk less than 1% of your speculative account on a trade. This tends to keep the fluctuations in the trading account small, relative to net worth. Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. The solution is to risk just enough that a profitable outcome is meaningful but not so much that a loss forces you to lose your nerve," he said.

Follow your trading rules

According to Seykota trading rules are vital and are critical to one's success. He feels when traders sit down to place a trade, nobody tells them how much to risk or whether to buy or sell.

Seykota is also a huge believer in rules and everything he does is based on strict trading rules he’s outlined for himself which helps him stay calm even when things aren’t going his way.

"It’s a rule that defines how much you’re allowed to risk or what you’re supposed to do during a losing streak. They help keep you disciplined in a world without many boundaries," he said.

Know when to break the rules

Seykota is of the view that a balance between following rules and breaking them is very important.

"Sometimes I trade entirely off the mechanical part, sometimes I override the signals based on strong feelings, and sometimes I just quit altogether. If I didn’t allow myself the freedom to discharge my creative side, it might build up to some kind of blowout. Striking a workable ecology seems to promote trading longevity, which is one key to success," he said.

Seykota believes that the win rate for any trader is insignificant and what really matters is having an asymmetrical profit to loss ratio.

He feels finding a trading approach that fits one's personality is vital and sometimes intuition and “gut feel” can become one's most useful assets.

"I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader," he says.

Reduce your trading risk

Seykota is of the view that the three primary components of trading are (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.

"Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties. Risk is the uncertain possibility of loss. If you could quantify risk exactly, it would no longer be a risk. Risk control has to do with your willingness to allow your stop to do its job," he said.

Have a winning mindset

Seykota believes a losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader as a losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. 

But a winning trader will always be wanting to learn and would like to transform every bet into a profitable one.

Seykota is of the view that in the recipe for success investors shouldn't forget commitment and a deep belief in the inevitability of success.

Leave emotions aside while trading

Seykota feels investors shouldn't get emotionally attached to their trading bets as it may lead to huge losses.

“Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions,” he said.

Seykota is of the view that the market is always right and investors should make their trading bets without letting their emotions get the better of them.

“If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right,” he said.

Asia-Pacific Short Term Update:

"Prices are breaking lower in the #Nifty index... We are short-term #bearish on the Nifty with a break of 17,500 expected in the coming days."

Dear Reader,

The Paytm listing fiasco looms large on investors’ minds. Unfavourable comparisons are being made with the Reliance Power IPO, which marked the top for the Indian markets back in 2008. Questions are being raised about what it will mean for the line-up of IPOs of other so-called ‘new-age’ companies. The investment bankers to the IPO and mutual fund managers who invested in it are being hauled over the coals. Schadenfreude is in the air.

This is what Aswath Damodaran, valuation guru and professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, had written about Paytm: “The picture that emerges of Paytm is that of a management that is too focused on racking up user numbers, and too distracted to care about converting those into revenues and profits, while making grandiose statements about its future.” He added, “Needless to say, if I invested in Paytm, it would not only have to be at the right price, i.e., trading at less than ₹1,500 billion, but also with the acceptance that this cannot be a passive (buy and hold) investment, but one that will require active engagement and monitoring of the company's actions and performance.” Well, its market cap is much less than Damodaran’s benchmark now.

There’s no question that fintechs are hugely disruptive and will force change in the stodgy Indian financial sector, most likely for the better. Bank credit is anyway no longer the main source of funding for the commercial sector. Our Start-up Street section this week said that while the tsunami of funds into the fintech sector will continue, “the unprecedented acceleration in funding — including companies with no meaningful revenues suddenly being accorded unicorn valuations — makes one wonder whether all of them will be able to meet the heightened expectations of the investors.”

Of course, not all new-age companies are created equal. On Thursday, while Policybazaar’s share price fell in sympathy with Paytm, the damage to Zomato and Nykaa was minimal. We pondered what investors should do after the rally in Nykaa shares. It may be wise to remember these are heady times and it’s not only among new-age companies that surprising narratives are being spun. Unnerved by the froth in the IPO market, SEBI is proposing to tighten some norms. This week, we analysed the Tarsons Products IPO and the Go Fashion India IPO. Talking of asset price bubbles, McKinsey Global Institute pointed out that while GDP growth in the advanced nations has been sluggish in the past two decades, wealth has soared, thanks to rising asset prices. The RBI’s state of the economy report said that in India, the yield gap, or the difference between the 10-year G-Sec yield and the 12-month forward earnings yield of the BSE Sensex, at 2.47 percent, has far outstripped its historical long-term average of 1.65 percent. That raises a question mark on equity valuations.

The good news is that our recovery tracker is showing that the festival-linked upturn persists. Growth is accelerating, although that is likely to lead to higher core inflation. This FT piece (free to read for MC Pro subscribers) says that high shipping costs will push up inflation. Higher inflation, in turn, will stiffen bond yields, but on the other hand, the strengthening economy will lead to higher earnings, so the gap between bond and earnings yield may not widen. That happy state could support equities. The Bank of America survey of global fund managers found that emerging markets were seen to give the best returns next year, in spite of the spectre of a strong dollar.

Indeed, Morgan Stanley has said 2022 will be all about better growth squaring off against high valuations, tightening policy, rambunctious investor activity, and inflation being higher than most investors are used to. As we said in our analysis of US corporate earnings, earnings growth will be a key factor because it acts as an inflation hedge. But much depends on the course of monetary policy in the US and on who will be the new Fed chairperson.

Our stock recommendations reflect the tension between these diverse forces. For instance, we found that inflation continues to weigh on Berger Paints’ margins; that higher coking coal prices could affect Tata Steel’s margins in the current quarter, while we also looked at some strategic moves available to the company. We said Hindalco will benefit from aluminium prices likely to remain elevated; and we found the valuations of Bharat Forge, Hero MotoCorp, Ashok Leyland, VA Tech Wabag, Ipca Labs and Mas Financial to be reasonable for the long-term investor, although we did advise investors to wait for a correction for some of them. On the other hand, some valuations may be low for a reason while in others it’s best to wait for a better entry opportunity.

This piece compares the prospects and the valuations of gold financing companies. In this interview, LIC chairman MR Kumar told us that the behemoth remains a net buyer in the market, reiterating that it continues to focus on long-term rather than short-term gains.

The Motherson Sumi management told us that supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in the next quarter. And Info Edge should continue to see robust growth momentum.

We continued our focus on the greening of business. This week, we took a look at Thermax’s bet on green energy, although its valuations are daunting. Post COP26, we looked at the prospects for Coal India and whether its biggest concern is existential in nature. And we brought out the challenges to Indian agriculture.

On our pesky Northern neighbour, our Eastern Window said India needs to be prepared for a more aggressive Xi Jinping. We also rooted for President Biden to keep up the pressure on China, especially in the alarming context of China’s nuclear build-up being one of the largest shifts in geo-strategic power ever. Among policy initiatives, we looked at a working group’s report on tweaking the insolvency rules. We considered the benefits of opening up the G-Sec market to retail investors.

Crypto is perhaps the poster child of market excess. But as Chuck Prince famously said, “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” In our Crypto Learn series, we told the tale of why cryptocurrencies were invented and tried to shed light on the mysteries of how they work. In Crypto Conversations this week, we told investors how to safeguard their investments —dancing near the door, so to speak. We cast a sceptical eye on how many people had cryptocurrencies within their circle of competence, invoking the hallowed Warren Buffett in the process. And we wondered if SEBI had jumped the gun by okaying a blockchain fund.

Whatever be the verdict on Paytm, in the Wonderland that we inhabit, unicorns are here to stay. As Lewis Carroll wrote in ‘Through the Looking Glass’: “The Unicorn looked dreamily at Alice, and said "Talk, child." Alice could not help her lips curling up into a smile as she began: "Do you know, I always thought Unicorns were fabulous monsters, too? I never saw one alive before!" “Well, now that we have seen each other," said the Unicorn, “If you'll believe in me, I'll believe in you. Is that a bargain?” Cheers, Manas Chakravarty

Sapphire Foods | KFC operator will make its debut on Dalal Street today. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 1,180 per share. Paytm, Sapphire Foods, Infosys, Vedanta, Zomato and more: Top stocks to watch out for on Nov 18

A 0.1 percent dip in SGX Nifty50 futures to 17,870 as of 7:05 am, indicated a subdued opening for the Indian equities on Thursday.

Paytm | Paytm operator One97 Communications will be listed on the exchanges today. The issue price was fixed at Rs 2,150 per share.

Sapphire Foods | KFC operator will make its debut on Dalal Street today. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 1,180 per share.

Zomato | Zomato UK, a step-down subsidiary of the company, has been dissolved effective from November 16, 2021. Separately, Zomato is reportedly in talks to invest as much as $500 million in Grofers.

Vedanta | The company will undertake a comprehensive review of the corporate structure. Vedanta says it is evaluating a full range of options and alternatives including demerger(s), spin-off(s), strategic partnerships for unlocking value and simplification of corporate structure.

Infosys | The company and Bloomberg Media announced a strategic collaboration to create the Bloomberg Digital Economy Index. Through the partnership, Infosys harnesses analytics and AI to integrate the Index experience on Bloomberg Media’s digital platforms and Bloomberg TV.

Camlin Fine Sciences | Through the company's newly incorporated wholly-owned subsidiary in Mexico, it has acquired 33.50 percent stake from the joint venture partner Controladora De Servicios Riso for a consideration of $8.50 million.

Kalpataru Power Transmission | ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company acquired 0.19 percent stake in the company through open market transactions on November 16, increasing shareholding to 5.18 percent from 4.99 percent earlier.

Jindal Drilling & Industries | The company has acquired an offshore jack-up rig 'Jindal Supreme' from Venus Drilling Pte. Ltd. for $16.75 million.

Phoenix Mills | CPP Investments has completed its first tranche of investment in Plutocrat Commercial Real Estate Private Ltd (PCREPL) on private placement basis and by way of secondary acquisition of equity shares held by the company in PCREPL aggregating to Rs787 crore.