#bq

(Reblog for larger sample size!)

Things continue to look brighter for the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) headed by new Prime Minister Mark Carney.

At CBC Poll Tracker, Éric Grenier now gives the Liberals an 80% chance of forming a majority government and a 13% chance of heading a minority government.

The chances of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) winning a majority are at 1% and the possibility of a Conservative minority government are at 6%.

Another way to look at it is the number of projected seats each party would take if the election were held today.

In addition to the Liberals and Conservatives, there's the Bloc Québécois or BQ (a party favoring independence for Québec which fields candidates only in Québec), the left of center New Democratic Party or NDP, the pro-environment Green Party, and the far right People's Party of Canada.

From Philippe J. Fournier's 338Canada, a reminder of how dramatically the Liberals' fortunes have improved since Christmas.

On December 22nd, the CPC were at 45%, the LPC at 20%, and the NDP at 19%.

The decline of the vote share for the NDP has a lot to do with the remarkable surge for the Liberals. Though the Liberals have also picked up Conservative votes in populous Ontario and BQ votes in seat-rich Québec.

But ultimately the LPC has Canada's revulsion to Donald Trump to thank. And replacing the unpopular Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney has done wonders for the party.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is seen by many Canadians as too close to Trump.

Is Pierre Poilievre too 'in sync' with Donald Trump?

It doesn't help the CPC that their campaign has not exactly been a well oiled machine.