#bermudez

Rachel Walser, Brigid Buttrum, Izabelle Bermudez, Olivia Hill & Gracie Foy

University of Alabama (UA)

Joey

February 19th

The UFC has a bit of momentum going as all of their February cards have churned out some solid entertainment to this point in time. UFC from Belem was more than fine (removing a relatively unsatisfactory main event), UFC 221 was all finish and bluster from start to stop and UFC Fight Night from Texas was just awesome with nary a lull in action. All of this leads to UFC on Fox from Orlando, Florida. For a card that really struggled to find a main event, they've righted the ship on this bad boy pretty well. It's not a major card or a mega event by any stretch BUT you have a good main card, decent televised prelims and a superb Fight Pass assortment that people should be excited about. It lacks the big sizzle but carries with it a solid all around event. The headliner is a #1 contender bout (nudge nudge wink wink) as Jeremy Stephens looks to make it three in a row vs Josh Emmett who is trying to improve to 3-0 at 145 lbs as well. The co-main event is an absolutely amazing fight on paper as two powerhouses of different styles meet up with Jessica Andrade vs Tecia Torres. OSP vs Ilir Latifi is one of those fights where you want to laugh at its relevance until you realize how close the winner is to a title shot and then you want to cry. Beyond that though, Latifi is the perfect test for OSP as St. Preux tries to earn a second bite at the 205 lb apple. Lastly you have Max Griffin vs Mike Perry in a genuinely fun action fight to round out your main card.

Fights: 13

Debuts: 2 (Marcin Prachnio, Manny Bermudez)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 4 (Yoel Romero vs David Branch CANCELLED/Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Aleksandr Rakic CANCELLED/Jake Collier OUT, Sam Alvey IN vs Marcin Prachnio/ Sara McMann vs Yanit Kuniskaya CANCELLED)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 10 (Ilir Latifi, Ovince St Preux, Josh Emmett, Jeremy Stephens, Tecia Torres, Jessica Andrade, Renan Barao, Alan Jouban, Sara McMann, Marion Renau)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  2  (Alan Jouban, Albert Morales)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 5 (Ovince St Preux, Josh Emmett, Jeremy Stephens, Tecia Torres, Olivier Aubin-Mercier)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 25-12

Jeremy Stephens- 2-1 Josh Emmett- 4-1 Tecia Torres- 3-1 Jessica Andrade- 4-1 Ovince St. Preux- 4-3 Ilir Latifi- 3-1 Mike Perry- 4-2 Max Griffin- 1-2

Too High Up- Maryna Moroz vs Angela Hill

I tend to err on the side of WMMA being represented better on cards but this fight really has no reason being this high up. It's going to be on big Fox and while Hill is fun in spurts, Moroz and Hill seem like on paper a pretty shitty stylistic match up. What's more (and I'll discuss this later), this has a low chance of being finished given that Moroz has one finish in the UFC in five fights and Hill has 0 in the UFC since her return.

Too Low- Albert Morales vs Manny Bermudez

I know it got added late so that's why it's sorta buried but look it, Bermudez is a really good 135 lb prospect. He shouldn't be opening up the show nor should he be on Fight Pass. Morales is also a fun 135er who has wild fights and tends to be a fun showcase opponent. Bump these guys up off of Fight Pass.

Stat Monitor for 2018: Debuting Fighters (Current number: 3-7):  Marcin Prachnio and Manny Bermudez

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 3-2): Sam Alvey

Second Fight (Current number: 6-9): Alex Perez

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 5-5):  0

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 5-8): Manny Bermudez

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- WMMA tends to come under the gun quite a bit for a variety of reasons. Having said that? I think I've found one justifiable avenue to critique the quality of MMA. At the very least, I've found a topic of discussion to be had:

13/38

That is the number of WMMA fights and the number of finishes in said fights since August. 37 fights and 13 finishes. SIX of those finishes come from the newly minted 125 lb class which has been only been active since October if memory serves. That means that between 115, 135 and 145 lbs, there's been a grand 7 finishes. Now we can all agree that a finish does not mean that a fight was good or bad, much like how not all decisions are created equally. I also don't know how those numbers relate to other male divisions either. What has to be said though is that fight finishing in WMMA has become a bit of a rarity and that in turn creates the illusion that the fights aren't that good.

This is especially a problem at 115 lbs. In the last 10 115 lb scheduled women's strawweight bouts, there have been 2 finishes. There's been just three finishes at 115 dating back to November. I obviously can't speak for the dudes who hate it just to hate it but if you were to argue that strawweight fights are destined to go to a decision, I'd kind of sort of have to agree with you. The same can't be said for 135 lbs who have 4 finishes in 7 fights dating back to August of 2017----which also makes you wonder why they're not just spending willy nilly to get more 135ers in the door.

None of this is being said to bury the ladies of mixed martial arts. In the interest of fairness, I went back and looked at the much maligned 125 lb class to see what they averaged for the same stretch. I got a number of 10/17 on finishes since August which is remarkably higher than I would've expected. The point is to just paint a picture of what's been going on in WMMA and the general rut for finishes across the weight classes, at the very least at the 115 lb level. It's also why I feel there's ample opportunity for a woman at 115 lbs to make a real statement here. Finishing fights will be at a premium for the 115 lb fights.

2- So this main event is in a very weird place. Josh Emmett has emerged on the scene at 145 lbs and been quite a force since making the drop. He knocked down Felipe Arantes three times in an entertaining debut and absolutely pasted Ricardo Lamas with a left hook that announced his presence for real at the weight class. Now there are two factors which prevent me from being 100% on board with Emmett at 145 lbs.  The first is the weight cut. Emmett is a very muscular 155er and it is worth noting that in two fights, he's missed weight once already. Yes, it was short notice BUT so is this fight. It's entirely possible Josh Emmett is about to have what some would consider a tainted victory upcoming because he may not make the weight. The second is I don't know how REAL his power is. Emmett to this point in the UFC hadn't shown much significant pop in his hands. Through three fights at 155 lbs, he seemed like a guy who LOOKED powerful but didn't really have a sizable power advantage in his hands. That has emerged and in a big way BUT 1) Felipe Arantes was a 135er coming up and 2) he missed vs Lamas who has been sparked out by 135ers in the past. All of this is to set up a question of whether Emmett is just riding a question mark fueled streak or if he's the genuine article at 145 lbs.

3- If I told you that Jeremy Stephens has not beaten a UFC opponent coming off a win since 2014, would you believe it?

4- Ovince St Preux's career turnaround is actually pretty remarkable if one is willing to view it from a fair and objective lens. He went 0-3 with losses to a former #1 contender, the current GOAT and a bad bad stylistic match up in Jimi Manuwa. Since then he's gone 3-0 all by finish with a few reputable wins sprinkled in there in Corey Anderson and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. I suppose those wins are kind of an indictment of what OSP is; good enough to beat the bottom of the pack but bad enough to be a highlight reel loss for the top of the heap. Ilir Latifi is sort of in the same boat, painting a picture of an evenly matched fight at 205 lbs. This is what remains of this division, guys.

5- At what point in a fighter's career can you officially say with confident "He is what he is"? Is Mike Perry officially at that point?

6- Sara McMann vs Marion Reneau is the OSP vs Ilir Latifi of 135 lbs and don't you act like it's not.

7- The best division in MMA has three fights on deck and each one brings something new to the table. Renan Barao returns to the division by which he was the man of for a good two year stretch when he takes on Brian Kelleher as the lead in to the FOX main card. Kelleher has some Brian Ebersole in him; mainly in the premise that he's a guy who grinded away on the regional circuit with a little bit of "win some, lose some" in his game. Wins over Julio Arce paved the way for an eventual UFC call up where he shocked Brazil by subbing Iuri Alcantara in the first round. A somewhat fluky loss to Chito Vera followed up in July and then in October, Kelleher iced Damien Stasiak in Poland to get back in the winner's circle. Russell Doane vs Rani Yahya is FRUSTRATING on paper given how good Doane can be. It's hard to say "there's more to him to be developed" with a guy who is 31 and 1-4 in his last 5 bouts but Doane has the ability to be a genuinely good bantamweight. His losses are to Mirsad Bektic on short notice up a weight class, Jerrod Sanders in a fight he gave away, Iuri Alcntara in a fight he was probably winning and Pedro Munhoz in a fight where they were swangin and Munoz got the better of it, leading to the tried and true guillo. Doane is one of those fighters who underperforms enough to break your heart but Yahya is a good match up for him given Rani's struggles with competent boxers who can defend takedowns. Lastly we have Manny Bermudez, an East Coast product who is undefeated and arguaby one of the more fluid grapplers at 135 lbs. He's proven enough regionally that the call up made sense but Albert Morales is one of those dudes who tests prospects pretty well. That's a bit of a potential spoiler situation.

8- Which is more likely; Renan Barao missing weight or Josh Emmett missing weight?

9- Alan Jouban coming off two straight finish losses has me very worried about him facing Ben Saunders who tends to hit really hard but Saunders might be more or less washed.

10- One thing of note; This is Josh Emmett's first ever UFC five round fight. It's in a weight class where his body really has never had to go at a strenuous elongated pace given he didn't have to defend much vs Arantes in the third round. Stephens' power is the one thing he does that absolutely can carry deeper into fights. Really curious how Josh Emmett handles the pacing to start off the fight and whether he wanes in the 4th and 5th round.

11- Alex Perez had a very successful UFC debut after starring on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contenders. Perez is a really talented grappler with some quick hands and power in his strikes. He isn't without his flaws (his submission defense is lacksadasical at times) but his strengths suggest he can be an absolute player in a 125 class in need. Eric Shelton is a fine test for him given that Shelton probably is the sort of dude who will probably settle into a groove as a prospect tester of sorts.

12- Will this do more or less than the UFC on Fox 28 ratings?

Joey

Jan 23rd, 2018

The UFC returns to Fox with.....

I mean.....

Okay so this card isn't all that great. The UFC went all out to end the year and made November and December some big months. This Fox card is sort of a victim of that as well as the usual fact that Jan tends to be a thin month PLUS fighters tend to get hurt when it's cold and they tend to not wanna do a training camp around the holidays and etc etc etc. This show is a rather thin show but hey! I'll convince ya to care it because there are some fights worth keeping an eye on. Y'all ready?

Fights: 11

Debuts: 2 (Cory Sandhagen and Austin Arnett)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 ( Ilir Latifi vs OSP Cancelled)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC):  4 (Ronaldo Souza, Derek Brunson, Dennis Bermudez, Randa Markos)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  2 (Bobby Green*, Dennis Bermudez)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  4 (Gregor Gillespie, Derek Brunson, Joaquim Silva, Vinc Pichel)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 18-10 Jacare Souza- 2-1 Derek Brunson- 4-2 Dennis Bermudez- 2-2 Andre Fili- 2-2 Gregor Gillespie- 3-0 Jordan Rinaldi- 1-1 Drew Dober- 3-1 Frank Camacho- 1-1

Too High Up- Drew Dober vs Frank Camacho

Okay so I feel bad about this because Dober/Camacho might be a fantastic fight. At 170 lbs, Camacho/Dober is one of those needed "THROW HANDS AND DO COOL SHIT!" type fights that you put on a card to guarantee an exciting fight where one dude is down to get finished. The problem is that both guys are sort of just there to be action fighters. Nothing is going to change for the winner or the loser, they'll always exist as mauler brawler types who have fun fights. This is a pretty good fight for action purposes but I just don't see main card on Fox. Sorry fellas.

Too Low- Kaitlyn Chookagian vs Mara Romero Borella

This to me would be a fine main card opener. No, it's not going to be a super action fight but Kaitlyn Chookagian vs Mara Romero Borella would be a solid fight with some divisional relevance. Give me this fight over two dudes swangin' on a main card filled already with dudes swangin'

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 0-3): Austin Arnett, Cory Sandhagen

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 1-1): 0

Second Fight (Current number: 1-3): Mara Romero Borella, Yi Jeon Kim

Cage Corrosion (2-4): George Sullivan

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- 185 lbs is sort of undergoing a bit of an under the radar renaissance of sorts. Robert Whittaker's emergence as a serious dude to know coincides with a heap of new talents being brought in at the weight class, namely guys like Eryk Anders, Oskar Piechota, Karl Roberson, Julian Marquez as well as the emergence of good fighters hitting their stride like Kelvin Gastelum, Anthony Smith, Gerald Meerschaert, Thiago Santos, Antonio Carlos Junior and Paulo Costa. Even with all of that being said, this is still a division that relies on about 6-10 guys to be headliners. Brunson and Jacare are two of those guys who will always be put into positions like this almost entirely due to what they bring to the table. They're known and in the UFC 185 lb class, they're almost always contenders to some various degree. The point I'm going for is that this could be the last chance for both of these guys because there's a heap of fighters under 30 who seem to be knocking on the door to the top of the division.

2- This is a weird sort of event where one of the guys is the hometown guy but you get the feeling that the other guy is the one they really want to build up. The UFC and Jacare reached an agreement on a new contract the day BEFORE he fought Robert Whittaker and so Jacare probably is earning more money now than he ever has before. He's a popular guy who has headlined in Brazil and could in theory be a continuous headliner in Brazil. He's reputable, fans like him and he's the sort of fighter who always seems to be one fight away from the title picture. It's easy to point out that he's lost to the guys in the interim title fight and got smoked by Whittaker but I wonder how much that matters at this point. It's in Brunson's backyard but I wonder if this is all about getting Jacare back into the title picture.

3- Brunson on paper is a pretty intriguing stylistic matchup for Jacare. It's grappler vs wrestler but Brunson hits hard enough to give Jacare reason to pause and avoid getting reckless. If it stays on the feet, I feel like Jacare is the guy with the more versatile offense compared to Brunson but the power is on Brunson's side. Jacare has been dropped and stunned in fights that extend beyond the first round recently and while he's still pretty quick for 185 lbs, I wonder if he's beginning to morph into one of those "Tough Dads" that makes middleweight such a wacky division.

4- Once upon a time not too long ago, Mirsad Bektic was expected to be in that mix at 145 lbs as a serious title contender. He had earned high praise as a prospect and did little in the UFC to disappoint from that regard even if you had concerns about how little he seemed to strike comfortably on the feet. Bektic's journey to the top was halted by Darren Elkins and if you're a prospect who loses at 135 to 155 lbs, you might as well fall off the face of the Earth. Since the loss to Elkins, Bektic has disappeared and might as well be redebuting at this point. There's so much to like about Mirsad Bektic that you're left to hope that he can recover from that loss even better. He got caught wrestling too much vs Elkins, gassed and then got finished when his wrestling abandoned him so it's not like it's a talent related issue I don't believe. Godofredo Pepey is the opponent and he's the right guy to test Bektic; active off of his back, more flash than substance on the feet, holes in the game that can be exploited and a real lack of wrestling savvy to not get taken down.

5- Speaking of "Once upon a time not too long ago", Dennis Bermudez once racked up a winning streak that featured Clay Guida, Max Holloway and Steven Siler. Since then? Well it hasn't quite been as pretty. Bermudez has always been hittable but he's always recovered well and been able to keep himself in the fight. Ricardo Lamas took advantage of Bermudez's slow starts and hittable nature, hurting him early and subbing him with a guillotine. Bermudez and Jeremy Stephens had a fucking amazing fight that ended with Bermudez being on the wrong end of the last knockdown, getting dropped and stopped by a Stephens flying knee on a sloppy takedown.  Since then Bermudez has been more and more skittish as a fighter. He's still aggressive when he needs to be but he wrestles more, strikes less and seems almost cautious to the point of self conservation. He had the Zombie hurt and never stepped back on the gas en route to a stoppage loss and he never seemed to get out of the starting blocks vs Darren Elkins. Dennis Bermudez and Andre Fili are similar like minded talents who have struggled finding any sort of footing in the UFC.

6- Some might call Andre Fili inconsistent but let's be real; Fili has gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W in the UFC. Seems consistent to me, am I right?

7- Juliana Lima is not a fun fighter to watch compete by any stretch of the imagination BUT her vs Randa Markos is a really intriguing fight. This is a battle of two fighters who could exist on the back end of the 115 lb division and both have lost to the elite of the elites (Tecia Torres, Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza and Joanna Champion to name a few).

8- Gregor Gillespie is a really intriguing 155 lber who is a bit too old to be a prospect (31) but not proven against top competition to feel like we know what he is in total. Unfortunately he's really not getting a fair step up with Jordan Rinaldi who is kind of a bottom layer of the division. Showcase fight for a big market.

9- Vinc Pichel vs Joaquim Silva is a REALLY good fight that is way too buried on this card. It's opening up the FS1 prelims but it's easily better than a collection of fights swimming around on the card above it. Pichel came back from a lengthy absence to flatten Damien Brown and his hands and wrestling skills make him a pretty intriguing 155er. Joaquim SIlva is a little basic for my tastes but he may be one of the best Brazilian "prospects" around. He's another guy we've seen tested before and he's passed those tests.

10- Bobby Green vs Erik Koch is such a battle between two guys who lose in spite of themselves consistently. I am ALL about this fight.

11- The featherweight division has won FOTN the past two shows to kick off 2018 so let's see if they can keep this going on with three straight shows. Bermudez vs Fili has an awesome shot to do it.

12- Any idea why fans have completely hopped off the Niko Price train? Seems totally weird given how good he was prior to his loss.