"There was an exchange on Twitter a while back where someone said, âWhat is artificial intelligence?' And someone else said, 'A poor choice of words in 1954'," he says. "And, you know, theyâre right. I think that if we had chosen a different phrase for it, back in the '50s, we might have avoided a lot of the confusion that we're having now."
So if he had to invent a term, what would it be? His answer is instant: applied statistics. "It's genuinely amazing that...these sorts of things can be extracted from a statistical analysis of a large body of text," he says. But, in his view, that doesn't make the tools intelligent. Applied statistics is a far more precise descriptor, "but no one wants to use that term, because it's not as sexy".
'The machines we have now are not conscious', Lunch with the FT, Ted Chiang, by Madhumita Murgia, 3 June/4 June 2023
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Itâs Saturday, which means: time for a linkdump post! Iâm back from my book-tour across the US, Canada and the UK, finishing up in Berlinâââand Iâm jetlagged in the backyard hammock, waiting for my laundry to come out of the machine and plowing through a long backlog of interesting links. Letâs goooooooo!
Itâs Pride month, and Pat Robertson kicked it off with a bang byâŚkicking off. What better way to start Pride than with a piece of fanfic by @wilwheatonâ about Robertsonâs arrival in Hell?
https://wilwheaton.net/2023/06/the-wait/
Once youâve had your fill of schadenfreude, get your Pride/Trekkie (or, if you prefer, Trekker) gear on with Wilâs Acting Ensign Pride collection:
https://shopstands.com/collections/wil-wheaton
Seguing smoothly into science fiction by way of Trek, letâs turn to Ted Chiang, a titan of the field, who is also a wicked-sharp critic of AI hype. Tedâs been at this since at least 2017, when he identified tech CEOsâ fears of AI as a form of transference of their fear of corporations, which are, after all, autonomous artificial life-forms that are rapidly devouring the human race:
And now, in the Financial Times, Ted sits down for lunch with Madhumita Murgia to talk about the linguistic game we play when we describe a statistical inference tool as âartificial intelligence,â given that it is neither âartificial,â nor âintelligentâ:
Start with whether machines âlearnâ: âmachine learningâ is just adjusting weights in a statistical model. When you teach a child something, youâre not adjusting weights! âMachine learningâ is a useful metaphor for thinking about a subset of applied stats, but itâs also a trap, tricking us into unconsciously anthropomorphizing an intelligence behind plausible sentence generators. We talk about AI models âhallucinatingââââanother linguistic trapâââbut the real âAI hallucinationâ is when we wet human people hallucinate a dry, electronic intelligence behind the plausible sentences.
Calling it AI, saying that it learns or hallucinates or knows or understandsâââthese are hallucinatory traps for wet squishy humans. Even the fact that chatbots use the pronoun âIâ is a slippery slope into imagining an intelligence on the other side of the keyboard.
What should we call this discipline, if not âAIâ? Ted says, âapplied statistics.â
Applied statistics can automate a lot of work away, but what itâs best at is automating the bullshit jobs that David Graeber (rest in power) described in his brilliant 2018 book:
An academic friend tells me that they use LLMs to write recommendation letters for grad students, and that grad students use LLMs to take minutes on department meetings. Presumably, someone else is using LLMs to ingest and summarize these recommendation letters and departmental meetings. LLMs can inflate a few bullet points into several florid paragraphs, and deflate them back into bullet points, with significant semantic losses on the way.
Is there a non-bullshit use for these? Maybe. I have spent a lot of my activist career as an anti-bullshit actor. For example, I was among the first public interest delegates to WIPO, the most industry captured UN specialized agency, which has the same relationship to terrible copyright proposals that Mordor has to evilâââa kind of infinite wellspring of bad ideas.
These ideas emerge out of an extremely bullshit process. The Standing Committee on Copyright and Related Rights meets periodically in Geneva for a highly stylized, multi-day session in which national delegates rise and deliver cryptic, stilted remarks about various proposed clauses to awful treaties like the Broadcast Treaty.
These remarks are recorded by the Secretariat, who then offers each delegation the opportunity to redact or alter the official record of their remarks. Then, six months later, the Secretariat publishes this revisionist version of the session, which would be impossibly dull and cryptic even without all the revisions. This is the Shield of Boringness (h/t Dana Claire) in action.
One day at one of these meetings, Wendy Seltzer had a brilliant idea: letâs make our own transcript. There was no public internet at WIPO back then, so we set up an ad-hoc network off one of our laptops (thankfully, theyâd just installed electrical outlets at some of the NGO delegation seats), then used Etherpad to create a shared document. We traded off transcribing the remarks with correcting typos and then annotating the text with plain-language descriptions of what was really going on.
Then we published: twice a day, at the lunch and dinner breaks, unplugging the Ethernet cables from one of the shared PCs in the mezzanine and uploading our transcripts. These hit the nerd sites of the day, like Slashdot, and created realtime pressure on national delegations that had caved to industry demands at the expense of their populations. They started to get urgent calls from their capitols demanding explanationsâââandthe delegates whoâd taken brave stands for the public interest were praised (for the first time ever!) by their bosses in distant ministries.
It worked so well that other NGOs started sending delegates to these meetings, and I started schlepping a wifi access point and a power strip to the meetings, so that several of us could collaborate on even more detailed realtime transcripts and annotations. We also collaborated on coordinated remarks, because each NGO was typically only allowed to speak for 1â2 minutes at then end of a 1â3 day meeting, so we drafted a unified set of comments that we delivered as a serial when the chair called on us.
These unofficial transcripts became the de facto record of the WIPO meetings. I used to run into national delegates whoâd been rotated in after a ministerial change in their home countries, who thanked me for our work and said it was the only way they could follow (and thus participate in) the proceedings.
We were setting the agenda, in other words. It was pretty cool, and it made the WIPO establishment furious. The secretariatâââa veteran of the US Trade Repâs office who made her bones cramming brutal, human-rights-abusing trade terms on the textile workers of south Asiaâââthreatened to expel us.
All that to say: we could have done even more if weâd had a reliable automated transcription tool. The valuable part of the work was the annotations, not the transcription, and we were always shorthanded, and automated transcription would have freed up a set of handsâââand a mindâââto make sense of the delegatesâ remarks and explain them to others.
On the subject of tech regulation and AI: if youâre not reading Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayananâs AI Snake Oil newsletter, allow me to gently suggest that you consider it:
https://aisnakeoil.substack.com/
The latest edition is âLicensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks,â and it does exactly what it says on the tin:
The issue here is Sam AltmanâââCEO of OpenAI, a company that is not âopenâ and whose products are neither âartificialâ nor âintelligentââââdemanding that Congress create an international licensing regime for products that compete with his own ChatGPT, which loses a large amount of money on every query and can only be profitable if it has no competition to get in the way of jacking up prices once other businesses are thoroughly dependent on its services.
As Kapoor and Narayanan explain, the licensing regime that Altman demands would:
Produce a dangerous monoculture in which every app would have a shared set of vulnerabilities that could be exploited by bad actors;
Homogenize the products of âAIâ toolsâââe.g. every resume-sorting bot would have the same blind-spots and irrational exuberances;
Give a small number of firms control over the Overton window, letting their products define which ideas and sentiments get sorted to the top of your inbox or social media feeds;
Centralize control over opinion-formation, with licensed companies controlling how complex ideas are summarized (âthose arenât bald spots, theyâre solar panels for sex machines!â);
Lead to regulatory capture: when an industry is dominated by a handful of large firms, itâs much easier for them to converge on a set of lobbying priorities, and their cozy oligopoly lets them extract sufficient profits that thereâs plenty of cash to spend on making those lobbying priorities into policy reality.
Kapoor and Narayanan favor âdevelopment and evaluation of state-of-the-art models by a diverse group of academics, companies, and NGOsâ and promise future work on risk assessment and guardrail development.
A key element of any AI policy framework is data acquisition, processing and utilization. The Ada Lovelace Instituteâs giant âRethinking data and rebalancing digital powerâ report is a banger on this subject, covering interoperability, privacy, equity, information security and more, with superb contributions from Ian Brown and Jathan Sadowski:
The privacy debate changed forever a decade ago, when Edward Snowden handed a group of journalists a trove of NSA documents detailing a massive, lawless global surveillance campaign. The tenth snowdenversary has prompted a lot of commentary. I really liked Alan Rusbridgerâs retrospective:
Rusbridger was the editor-in-chief of The Guardian during the Snowden publications, who reminds us that whistleblowers continue to meet with cruel treatment and punishment, rather than the celebration theyâre due. He also reminds us that editorial independence is key to the brave reporting that whistleblowers rely on: when he was publishing the Snowden revelations, his bosses were incapable of ordering him to stop. They could have fired him, but they were not permitted to override his editorial judgments.
Another good Snowden take comes from Ewen MacAskill, the former Guardian defense and security correspondent, who was one of the original Snowden reporters:
MacAskill tells us that neither he nor Snowden have any regrets about their decision. More to the point, he quotes the ACLUâs Ben Wizner, Snowdenâs lawyer, who reminds us that as dismal as Snowdenâs exile in Russia is, itâs far better than what everyone expected at the timeâââlifetime confinement to a Gitmo-style American gulag or worse, a firing squad.
(Snowden wasnât trying to get to Russiaâââhe was aiming for Ecuador, but Secretary of State John Kerry canceled his passport after his flight took off from Hong Kong, which gave the Russians the pretext they needed to detain and effectively kidnap him.)
The Snowden leaks ushered in an era of mass encryption, ending the age in which most data was sent or stored âin the clear.â From the mass storage on your phone to the web sessions your browser initiates to the instant messages you send and receive, the age of cleartext is over.
Meanwhile, the claims by the spy agenciesâââwho have proved time and again that they will lie to the public and their democratically elected overseers about their illegal surveillanceâââthat Snowden did untold harms to national security remain as empty as they were a decade ago. As Snowden told MacAskill: âDisruption? Sure, that is plausible. But it is hard to claim âdamageâ if, despite 10 years of hysterics, the sky never fell in.â
It took a brave, independent press to publish the Snowden revelations, but even a decade ago, the press was ailing. Big Techâs chokehold over subscription payments, ads, and delivery of content has allowed it to steal a fortune in cash from the news business. Unfortunately, the mediaâââand its friends in governmentâââhave decided that the real problem is that tech is stealing âcontent,â not money, leading to proposals to restrict who can link to, quote and discuss the news. For the past month, Iâve been working with EFF on a series describing how tech steals money (not content) from the news, and what to do about it:
Though I disagree with people who say tech is stealing news content, I firmly agree that the collapse of the news industry is bad news for society. Indeed, one of the reasons we desperately need an independent press is to ensure critical investigations of the tech industryâââsomething weâre more likely to get if the news isnât âpartneredâ with tech for its survival.
Every press outlet has its blind spots and biases, and press competition can really sharpen a media outlet. For example, editors from across the chummy UK press spiked stories detailing the sexual predation of a veteran reporter, Nick Cohen. It took the NY Times to break the story:
Perhaps the New York Post will keep the Times honest, but what about other American cities where news coverage has dwindled to one or fewer outlets. In Baltimore, a new news outlet called the Baltimore Banner is looking to discipline the ailing Baltimore Sun, which was recently purchased by Alden Global Capital. Alden is a notorious vulture capitalist that buys up once-great papers, asset-strips and debt-loads them, fires their best reporters, and lets them degrade into a slurry of advertorials, wire service articles, and nonsense:
The Banner got its seed capital from Stewart Bainum, a former Maryland assemblyman and hereditary rich guy, who nevertheless has embraced a relatively progressive set of causes throughout his political and business careers. Bainum tried to buy the Sun, but lost out to Alden, so he started his own (nonprofit) rival:
While the Sun is slashing its newsroom (down to 70 from a peak of 400), Bainum has committed $50m to hire journalists. Theyâre starting with 70 and plan to grow from there. Theyâve already poached high-profile editors and writers from the Sun and Washington Post. The Banner will be a local paper, focusing on Baltimore metro stories. Per Ron Cassie in Baltimore Magazine, the paper wonât run a story about the State of the Union address âunless there is a significant Baltimore angle.â
The focus will be on âenterprising, explanatory, and investigative journalismâââânot covering the tick-tock of every fire or burglary, but rather, the âwhy and how questions.â Their revenue target is 50% subscriptions (theyâre paywalled), 25% ads, 15% donations, 5% events and 5% misc.
One key cleavage line in the fight between news and tech is workersâ rights. News workersâââlike nurses, librarians, teachers, and creative workersâââare easy to exploit, thanks to their vocational awe. This aweâââdescribed by Fobazi Ettarh in a now-canonical essayâââis in contrast to Graeberâs bullshit jobs, the idea that since your job makes a difference, you donât deserve to be treated decently:
Itâs truly perverseâââyou have to be well-compensated to serve a box on an org chart to inflate a corporate princelingâs sense of self-worth, but if you actually help people, that is its own reward.
Reporters (and other âawe-struckâ workers) have reached a breaking point. The latest newsroom to strike is Business Insider, and Insider Union is publishing a delightful countersite called (what else?), Business Outsider:
https://www.insiderunion.org/business-outsider
When those workers bring their bosses to their knees, win their demands, and go back to reporting on business, theyâll have a great new tool: the DoJ has finally launched its long overdue Corporate Crime Database:
Activists and journalists have been clamoring for this for more than a decade, led by Ralph Nader. Corporate Crime Reporter describes the database: âall of the cases in its system from Main Justice and all 93 U.S. Attorneys officesâ:
The database doesnât have an RSS feed or other âadvancedâ features from the previous decade, but all works of federal authorship are public domain, so someone could hack up a scraper that turns new entries into an easy-to-follow feed.
On the subject of innovative databases: Shepherd is a book recommendation site thatâs attempting to provide an independent alternative to the hegemonic dominance of Amazonâs Goodreads:
https://shepherd.com/
It aggregates writersâ recommendationsââââ8,000+ authors have shared five of their favorite books around a topic, theme, or mood.â
These break down well on topics; thereâs a great science fiction section:
https://shepherd.com/bookshelf/science-fiction
If youâre interested in sf writers and their thoughts, you could do worse than to follow Applied Sci-Fi from ASUâs Center for Science and the Imagination. These are seminars in which sf writers and practitioners talk about the way that sf can contest, inform and inspire discussions of current events:
The next event (a free webinar) is âWhat is the future of [X]?,â on Jun 14 at 9hPT: âwhat can broaden societyâs thinking and impact decision-making about our shared technological future?â
The speakers are great: Annalee Newitz, Tobias Buckell, August Cole, Amy Johnson and Tory Stephens, moderated by Joey Eschrich.
Well, that wraps it up for this linkdump, the third in an occassional and erratic series. Previous editions are here:
https://pluralistic.net/tag/linkdump/
Actuallyâââjust one more thing. Have you ever wanted to preserve your short, tweet-length thoughts in an awkward archival medium? Me too! Thankfully, thereâs Dumb Cuneiform, who will transliterate your tweet into cuneiform and hand-punch it into a palm-sized clay tablet, bake it, and mail it to you, all for $20:
https://dumbcuneiform.com/
If youâd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, hereâs a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
Book Applied Statistics Theory and Problem Solutions with R by Dieter Rasch pdf Book Applied Statistics Theory and Problem Solutions with R by Dieter Rasch pdf : Pages 503 By Dieter Rasch , Rob Verdooren and JĂźrgen Pilz Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Year: 2020 ISBN: 1119551528, 9781119551522 Search in Amazon.com Description: Instructs readers on how...
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
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A business consultant is raising alarms about AI-conducted job interviews after he says a tech companyâs evaluation of him drew some concern
A business consultant is raising alarms about AI-conducted job interviews after he says a tech companyâs evaluation of him drew some concerning conclusions, including criticizing his "habitual" use of Google's Chrome internet browser.
pour one out for all the dumb homies pouring 1-3 bottles of fresh clean water out of our limited supply every time they ask a statistics model to think for them. another stunning example of humanity giving up on itself