Harry Styles/Louis Tomlinson AO3 Works Stats
The other day, I was curious to see what the trajectory of uploads of Larry fanfic on Ao3 was and if it was increasing.Anyway, it was a pretty simple process, and here were the findings:
Perfect right? Done. Time to go to bed? No, because ya girl got hyper-fixated. So grab a cup of tea and enjoy this absolutely ridiculous waste of time...
Introduction
The Covid-19 pandemic profoundly affected various aspects of societal behaviour, including participation in online communities. The ‘Larry fan fiction community’ had a notable influx of new participants and emerging writers during this period. My antedotal observations suggested a significant number of authors have been publishing their first works as recently as this month. This study aims to quantify the trends in Harry Styles/Louis Tomlinson fan fiction uploads on AO3 (Archive Of Our Own) over the past decade, with a particular focus on discerning any noticeable uptick in contributions corresponding to the pandemic’s timeline.
Method
The data collection was executed over several days, starting from the 16th of October 2023. Due to this, the 16th of October was used as a reference point for all of the 12-month periods. The following parameters were employed for filtering:
Relationship Category: Harry Styles/Louis Tomlinson.
Inclusivity: All pieces that included this relationship, irrespective of the presence of other pairings. The result of this means there are likely some works included where they are a side pairing.
Language: All languages were included.
Work Status: Both individual pieces and those parts of a series were included, as were completed and incomplete works.
Accessibility: Being logged in allowed access to members-only works.
During the analysis, two works were excluded due to backdating, to ensure the timeframe remained consistent. Due to the dynamic nature of the fan fiction platform, some works underwent updates or were removed during the data collection process. While these fluctuations did cause some inconsistencies, they were negligible and did not significantly impact the overall dataset.
For the 12-month periods under consideration, three main categories were analysed: total, completed, and unfinished.
Results
A comprehensive analysis of Harry Styles/Louis Tomlinson fan fiction uploads spanning from 2011 to 2023 revealed the following insights:
2011: A total of sixteen works were documented, all of which were completed.
2012: The total number of uploads rose to 417. Among these, 409 were completed works, while eight remained unfinished.
2013: A significant surge was observed, with total uploads reaching 4,795. Completed works accounted for 4,251, whereas 544 were left incomplete.
2014: The growth trend continued, recording a total of 6,303 uploads. 5,296 were completed, and 1,007 were in-progress.
2015: The first decline was witnessed, although minor, with 6,105 total uploads. Completed works comprised 4,919, and unfinished ones stood at 1,186.
2016: A slight decline was noted, totalling 4,805 works. Completed pieces were 3,765, with 1,040 still in-progress.
2017: Uploads further decreased to 2,898. Of these, 2,297 were completed, and 601 remained unfinished.
2018: A modest rise was seen with 2,784 total works. Completed contributions were 2,275, while 509 were ongoing.
2019: The total dropped to 2,064. Completed pieces stood at 1,700, and 364 were still under development.
2020: A slight increment occurred, totalling 2,572 uploads. Of these, 2,071 were finished, and 501 were ongoing.
2021: The count increased to 3,195. Completed works reached 2,483, with 712 in-progress.
2022: A total of 3,767 works were uploaded. Completed works were 3,090, while 677 were yet to be finished.
2023: The most recent data showcases 4,018 total works, with 3,104 completed and 914 still ongoing.
After collating the primary data on completed and uncompleted works, I wanted to look at the distribution based on word count. The intention behind this exploration was to discern if there were patterns or preferences within the writing community regarding the length of the stories. (Please note that on diagrams representing word count, the years are now in descending order)
The categorisation of word count was structured. Works were segmented into word count brackets that started from the shortest stories, ranging from 0 to 1999 words, then progressively moved up in intervals: 2000-4999 words, 5000-9999 words, and so on due to the high prevalence in numbers in the shorter works. This structured approach allowed for a visual representation of how numerous works fell into each bracket for each year.
If you click on it, you might be able to see the distribution.
Results: Word Count Analysis
The following overview encapsulates the distribution of word counts for fan fiction uploads from 2011 to 2023:
0-10,000 Words:
2023 observed the highest concentration within this frame with 2507 works. Over half of the total published works for the 12-month period were found within this bracket.
The trend experienced notable growth from the 14 entries in 2012.
2014 saw a peak with 4994 works in this category, followed by a fluctuating pattern in subsequent years.
10,001-50,000 Words:
2023 recorded 1,031, a slight increase from 1,010 in 2022.
2015 led the chart with the most works in this range.
50,001-100,000 Words:
The count in 2023 showcased the highest number in this category, with 293 works.
2016 and 2021 were equal second, with 219 works in this category.
100,001-300,000 Words:
2023 had the most works in this segment, followed by 2022 and 2021.
Prior to this, the peak was in 2017.
300,001 Words and above:
The numbers in this range are comparatively limited, with 2023 having the most works surpassing 300,000 words.
Most years witnessed very few works in this extensive word count bracket, with numbers often remaining in single or low double digits.
I was also interested to find where most work stopped being completed. This is the percentage of completed works in each range.
Limitations of the Analysis:
AO3 Filtering System Limitations: The AO3 filtering system does not readily display the initial posting date of a fic. A fic could have been started several years prior to its completion but only shows up in the filtering system in the year it was last updated. This poses a significant limitation as the actual duration taken for the completion of a work might not be accurately represented.
Human Fallacy: There's always a potential for human error in manual data collection and analysis. Overlooked details, misinterpretations, or unintended biases can inadvertently influence the results.
Deletion and Date Modification of Works: Authors may delete their works or modify posting dates. This becomes significant for older works with a higher likelihood of deletions or date changes. Such actions can skew the numbers, offering a misrepresented view of the works available during a particular year.
Variability in Word Count Reporting: While categorising based on word count is useful, it's possible that authors might update or expand their works after the initial posting, leading to changes in word count categories over time.
Conclusion:
The data spanning from 2011 to 2023 shows that over the 13-year period, there has been a marked increase in both completed and uncompleted works, with the total number of works increasing more than 250-fold from 16 in 2011 to 4018 in 2023.
From 2011 to 2015, there was a notable surge in the number of completed works, culminating in 2014 with a total of 6307 works. This could potentially reflect an increased growing interest or a pivotal shift in the community or broader fandom dynamics during this period.
From 2016 to 2019, a noticeable decrease in the total works emerged, with 2019 seeing the steepest drop. This decline aligns with the onset of One Direction's hiatus. While causation cannot be conclusively established, it does provide a reasonable explanation.
Beginning in 2020, a revitalisation is evident, with figures steadily climbing and nearing their zenith by 2023. While this remains speculative, anecdotal accounts suggest that the pandemic, affording individuals more leisure for social media coupled with the growing popularity of TikTok, may have reignited interest in the fandom, steering them towards both reading and potentially writing fanfiction.
In summary, the AO3 community showcases dynamic growth, decline, and resurgence patterns over the examined period. While completed works have seen fluctuating trends, the spirit of initiation remains unwavering, as observed by the consistent number of uncompleted works.
Length of works
In 2011, the publication of longer stories (10,000 words and above) was almost non-existent. The numbers began to rise steadily, with a significant jump in longer stories from 2015 to 2017.
The number of stories with a word count between 10,000-14,999 went from 2 in 2011 to a peak of 458 in 2014. Similarly, the 15,000-19,999 range saw an increase from 0 stories in 2011 to its peak at 253 in 2015. As we progress through the word count brackets, there's a discernible growth trend, albeit with some fluctuations. For instance, the 80,000-89,999 bracket jumped from 0 stories in 2011 to a peak of 48 stories in 2023.
While there have been fluctuations in the numbers for some years, the overall trend does show growth in the publication of longer stories over the past decade.
The data shows that extremely long stories (those above 200,000 words) have always been a rarity. However, there's still a perceptible trend.
The 200,000-249,999 word count range sees the most action, with a peak of 27 stories in 2023. This is growth from the previous years 17, and then to 14, and so on. The numbers decrease as we progress to the right into the higher word counts, but occasional stories reach these impressive lengths.
The 250,000-299,999 word count range has peaked at 6, with numbers generally dropping with previous years. Higher word count ranges, such as 300,000-349,999 and 350,000-399,999, are sparser but maintain a presence.
Word counts of 450,000 and beyond are sparse, with very few recent entries.
In conclusion, while very lengthy stories remain uncommon, they exist and have seen publication in varying numbers. There's a trend towards fewer stories as the word count increases, which is expected given the monumental length of these works.
Upon examination of the data, there's a pronounced resurgence in the publication of longer narratives, particularly following a noticeable decline post-2016. The trajectory of this resurgence hints at an evolving literary landscape, with authors and perhaps readers veering towards more extensive works. Although the factors underpinning this shift remain speculative, the upward trend, especially in the realm of extended narratives, cannot be dismissed.
Monitoring developments in this sphere to ascertain whether this resurgence signifies a phase or a deeper, more sustained transformation in literary predilections will be interesting.
