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What they could actually mean for the Indian economy⌠Like in most years, the rainfall estimates have diverged. While the government owned IMD has forecast an above normal monsoon this year, the privately owned SKYMET has forecast a below-average monsoon this year. The difference arises from the interpretation of the likely impact of the ElâŚ
                      Monsoon Forecast
What they could actually mean for the Indian economyâŚ
Like in most years, the rainfall estimates have diverged. While the government owned IMD has forecast an above normal monsoon this year, the privately owned SKYMET has forecast a below-average monsoon this year. The difference arises from the interpretation of the likely impact of the El Nino effect. While the IMD believes the effect is waning, the SKYMET still believes that the El Nino effect could take its toll on the size and spread of the monsoons. However, last year the IMD had got its estimates right, while the SKYMET had got their estimates entirely wrongâŚ
Understanding average rainfallâŚ
Before getting into the subtle nuances of the two forecasts, it is essential to understand what average rainfall implies in the field of weather forecasting. Average rainfall is defined as the range of 96-104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Anything below 96% is classified as below average rainfall while anything above 104 is classified as above normal monsoons. From the point of view of Indian agriculture, the quantum of rains, the timely arrival and the regional spread matters. If rains get delayed, then it impacts the sowing season and the eventual quantum of rainfall does not matter. Back in 2014 and 2015 we had conditions wherein the monsoons resulted in droughts in some areas and floods in other areas. Hence, a stable distribution and timely arrival are as important as the quantum of rainfall. READ MORE- Best Online Stock Trading, Financial Services & Mutual Funds Investment Solution provider India - Trustline
