Publica Times

Spring break is just around the corner and that means the weary students at Publica Times will be looking to stretch their legs a bit. Three of the staff writers- Elias, Abe, and myself-will be heading over to our nations capital to learn a bit about lobbying. (Sorry, Jesse, you have to stay across the pond.)

Publica Times has selected this complex and ongoing dilemma for the second instalment of the series Un-Simplified because of the ongoing strife, its deep seeded roots, and notable international interest in the form of bilateral and multilateral action as well as the fragmented attention of the media.

South Sudan, the newest state in either the African Union or the United Nations, has been caught in the crossfire since Sudan’s independence in 1956. Emerging on the world stage in June of 2011, the severely underdeveloped country quickly fell back into conflict after a split the nation’s administration, President Salva Kiir and dismissed Vise President Riek Machar.

Riek Machar (Left) President Salva Kiir (Right)

South Sudan has been fraught with conflict for nearly half a century as economics, politics, and ethnic divisions tear the infant country at the seams for resources and power. Spanning from 1955-1972 and again from 1983 to 2005, civil war in the form of guerrilla warfare pushed for autonomy and later independence from the northern Sudanese government. The 10 southern-most provinces of Sudan held a legal referendum for independence in 2011, in which 98.8% voted in favor, leading to collective formation of a new state in 2011 in accordance with the 2005 Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (SCPA). 

The SCPA has six chapters, which not only planned the eventual succession of the territory, but highlight the underlying contentions and problem areas of the conflict. The Protocol on Wealth Sharing is of especial importance because of the unique economic structure of the now-two states. The economy of South Sudan consists primarily of subsistence farming and oil exportation. Seeing that subsistence agriculture is neither profitable nor an economic platform for substantial growth, oil is the keystone of the political and financial structure of the country – and therefore a point of contention.

While in recent months the global price of oil has dropped radically, it historically high value and global demand have been the cause for developing nations to focus on its exportation in return for high economic returns. Of course, this leads to the infamous resource curse, rendering the stability of entire counties to the volatile and aggressive fluxes in market value.

The issue of a resource curse is a side dish when compared to other factors at play; chief of which

relationship of the new state with its northern counterpart. South Sudan’s general grievances, which eventually led to independence, were twofold: first that Sudan’s oil deposits existed in the south, and second, the oil was being drained via pipelines to the north while the southern providences were ignored. This mixture of economic subjugation and political inaction were one of the primary causes for dismay.

Currently, due to the continued civil violence, the nation’s production of oil is at a minimal.  After the overwhelming majority passed the referendum for independence in 2011 the wealth power-sharing agreement came into action between Sudan and South Sudan. To simplify the 50 pages of legal text into a single sentence – South Sudan would retain the territory that voted to succeed including the underlying oil fields, after which Sudan and South Sudan would continue the extraction and export of oil via the north-flowing pipelines.

On July 7, 2011 National Public Radio (NPR) published an anticipatory segment for South Sudan’s day of independence (July 9, 2011). South Sudan’s then Information Minister Barnaba Mariaj was quoted saying the following:

“You can see we are sitting at the heart of this continent. This is the real heart, because it is the real area where the virgin resources of this continent are located. They have not been exploited. So, it needs peace ... Destabilizing each other is not in the interests of the two nations. That's why we believe having a viable state in the north and a viable state in the south, living side by side, cooperating in trade in business, discussing issues that may bring conflict is the best way forward.”

Yet flipping forward through the pages of time, it is clear that this sentiment of peace failed to materialize.

Civil War: Internal Factors

The Contemporary Basics 

President Salva Kiir and Vise President Riek Machar headed the first administration of this new nation until 2013 when Mr Machar was dismissed from his position. It did not take long for a region so used to war to slip back into the fray.

Currently there are active peace talks being held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia between the two factions. While scepticism and hope crash back and forth in the sea of time, the simple truth that there are quite a few hand’s in this cookie jar. 

Corruption

A major problem for the viability of South Sudan has been stolen or misappropriated funding. In 2012 the country was racked by a scandal in which a collective $4 billion was missing. In an open letter to 75 government staff, President Kiir accused them of poisoning the revolution and offered amnesty to those who returned that which had been taken.

Demographics

In a country of 11.5 million people, South Sudan is home to many ethnic groups – the largest of whom are the Dinka (35.8%) and the Nuer (15.6%). While the official language is English, Arabic is spoken nationally as well as numerous regional languages tied to ethnic roots.  Concerning religion, the country has a notable Christian minority with the majority continuing to practice their local belief systems (for which the general term is animist)

Further Sources:

CIA World Factbook South Sudan (accurate to 2011)

Power-sharing & the Big Man Theory

Please watch this Al Jazeera news clip from 2013 before continuing to read the written article

*Al Jazeera: South Sudan president fires cabinet

Big Man Theory is the academic term used by political scientists and historians in order to describe a leader who holds power through a special relationship with a specific population. This base of support is typically the leaders ethnic group – a phenomenon repeated across the continent. The prevalence and magnitude of this flaw has led ethnically diverse states to seek remedies at the formal and informal level. Formally, legal diction is put on the books preventing ethnic corruption. Informally, politicians look to more subtle means. In the case of South Sudan, President Salva Kiir and Vise President Riek Machar were from two different ethnic groups; Dinka and Nuer respectively. While these men were in place the two largest ethnic groups, totaling over 50% of the country’s population, recognized the political balance within the administration. This implicit security was dissolved after President Kiir dismissed his vise president along with the rest of his cabinet. Without the political bridge, South Sudan quickly digressed into conflict.

Civil War: External Pressures

Sudan

President of Sudan Omar al-Bashir 

It was no secret during the near-50 years of war that the Sudanese government does not approve of South Sudan’s succession.  Oil remains the chief export for Sudan, despite losing the actually deposits to the newest internationally recognized state. Theft of oil has been a continually issue, and remains at the root of tensions between the two states. One example of these claims came in January 2012 when official accusations claimed Sudan’s security services had taken 650,000 barrels of oil with a gross value of $65 million. Stephen Dhieu Dau , South Sudan's oil minister was quoted by Aljazeera saying, "The government of Sudan has chosen to steal this oil in broad daylight just days before its own proposed commercial oil negotiations with the Republic of South Sudan." In turn, Sudan did not deny having taken the oil, but instead claimed the “confiscation” was payment since South Sudan had “refused to agree on a deal for a transit fee.” There are also repeated claims that Sudan has helped stir up war within South Sudan. Taking sides with the rebellion, Sudan has allegedly supplied weapons in order to continue the state of destabilization. 

Uganda

At the southern border of South Sudan lies Uganda. After the outbreak of war in late 2013, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni deployed 3,000 troops for the evacuation of expatriates. It was not long before the UPDA (Uganda People's Democratic Army) became another active military force in the conflict after siding with President Kiir.

United Nations

The UNOCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) has actively worked towards aiding IDPs (Internally Displaced Peoples) in South Sudan. Current USAID estimates suggest 900 thousand IDPs of which only 67,900 have sought refuge at UN facilities. These figures do not account for refugees – for more information on Refugee Migration please look to Publica Times Journalist Abe Kenmore and his new series entitled Europe and immigration unsimplified.

Further Sources: 

United Nations Mission to South Sudan

China

The global power has taken special interest in Africa over the past two decades in search of raw resources to its required by its booming industrial engine.  Due to the unique Chinese system in which the lines of political power and business interests are blurred, there has been growing use of the state in economic affairs. In the late 1990’s China began to invest in Khartoum (capital of Sudan) on a financial and political level. The Asian giant aided in the construction of Greater Nile Oil Pipeline (GNOP)in 1999 which connects (now South Sudanese’) oil fields to the capital city of Sudan and ends at the Red Sea in Port Sudan.

Economic Development and Aid theory aside, human rights observers saw Chinese involvement as an enabling (and even encouraging) force that allowed Sudan to continue to wage brutal war against its own citizens rather than seek peace.

Recently China has pledged 700 peacekeeping troops to the UN mission in South Sudan. While the UN mandate provides a degree of impracticality and oversight to the troops, an ulterior agenda is clear. While some see this as the act of a Benevolent Hegemon, others see it as a legal maneuver to secure oil production without raising too much attention.

Further Sources:

China's active peacekeeping role shows rising influence in world affairs: Argentine diplomat

China To Send UN Troops To South Sudan, Denies Deployment Related To Oil Investment

China Invests Heavily In Sudan's Oil Industry

United States

The US has been one of the strongest international proponents backing the independence of South Sudan. President Barack Obama’s statement of recognition was one of the first with warm tones that stressed bilateral relations. In the coming years, the United States as sought to play the role of both ally and business man. South Sudan has been included in many US African development initiatives while efforts to purchase oil have been increasingly blatant. It is important to note that this cordial relationship has been hot and cold. Recently the US Diplomatic Corps introduced a lengthy proposal for sanctions against the leadership of South Sudan’s warring factions.

Further Sources:

US Security Strategy in South Sudan - An anti-China Strategy?

United States of America & China

The trend of Chinese FDI (Federal Direct Investment) and private investment interest in Africa has gradually increased as the economic power looks for a position of hegemony. The United States has also looked for ways to partner and benefit with South Sudan in hopes of accessing the nation’s rich oil fields.

These to global powers have become locked in a diplomatic battle. China has a well-developed relationship with Khartoum (Sudan) and investment in the GNOP was a calculated effort to secure oil reserves. However the recent succession of South Sudan has complicated matters – cutting the oil and delivery system. Not only are the South Sudanese-Chinese relations less than ideal, but US effort to form oil deals directly with the new state cut out Sudan and loosen China’s control on the situation.

Further Sources:

The Positive: South Sudan and its dimensions of interests

Crossfire & Geopolitics– and when the finer details begin to emerge, vivid images of geopolitical trade wars appear. China and the United States, Sudan and Uganda, Dinka and Nuer; each front in conflict over its own agenda. This issue has a long and intense history that will not simply disappear. Hope for the nation and its people is not impossible. Nevertheless, until South Sudan is brought out of the geopolitical crossfire and rectifies its own cultural problems war will march on. 

For timely information please search key phrases in the following trusted news syndicates

Reuters: Africa

BBC Africa

All Africa  

New York Times

The Economist

_______________________  

Publica Times: A Student Voice for Politics

Series Un-Simplified

Jesse PR Prieto

With each passing day, the nation’s eye increasingly looks towards the upcoming presidential elections. With rumored candidacies as common as mice in a field, most Americans might not be paying all that much attention to the goings on and politicking behind the scenes. An occasional glance is thrown to the main storylines but there is much more to the process than initially meets the eye.

For most, presidential campaigns bring a few vivid images to mind. The buss with slogan and name emblazoned on the side rolling from town to town. Or the platforms of party conventions festively decorated, with raucous chants ringing in the background. Yet so much more goes on behind the scenes, and much of it is advance work.

What exactly is advance work? Basically, people doing advance for campaigns are the movers and shakers for the candidate. An effective advance lead should fly completely below the radar because everything went along without a hitch, and indeed mostly these individuals remain “out of the shot” so to speak.

In this piece however, presidential advance teams will get a little attention for carrying out their vital and enduring tasks. Roughly speaking, these operations exist in a duality, those in field offices and advance teams that travel from event from event. These operations rarely interact, and when they do, things can become tense because the traveling team often takes precedence over the team that has been there working the region for months.

Field offices take their orders from the campaign’s state director, and are in place working in offices months prior to elections. The main objective for field offices is to establish a draw for the candidate in the region. They pool volunteers, get potential voters to register, and attempt to gauge how well the candidate is doing in the county (ideally there is a field office in every one).

Advance teams on the other hand are extremely mobile. They take orders strictly from what is colloquially referred to as “the desk” but is basically the campaign’s coordinating office, and travel from city to city setting up events.

Each team moves from city to city and for the most part sets up events that the candidate will stop through. These are primarily speeches and rallies but could range from many other types of events. The teams follow a lead individual, and have other members designated for building the crowd, establishing the sight, handling the press, arranging the motorcade, and more. If requested Secret Service, may also travel with an advance team to make sure each candidate is safe at all the events.

These individuals work tirelessly to ensure that the campaign surges ahead. Yet for the level of dedication this kind of work requires, and the lifestyle of traveling night in and night out for months, the pay is quite modest.

I am a political science major, which means I spend a lot of my time reading theories. If, however, political science is not your area of expertise, keep reading. The guide I am about to share with you can be applied to any theory, regardless of the discipline.

This guide was presented to me in my international relations theory course and has proved to be very useful in dissecting complicated schools of thought. Its a good starting point to your study and I hope it will help you as much as it has help me. How to Evaluate Theories: 

Predictive Power: Good predictions equal good prescriptions. The first step in any evaluation starts with determining how good a certain theory was at predicting past events. Examine what the theory claims to explain and see if the claims match the history.

Explanatory Power: Must be able to answer the "why?" question. This is obviously very important. A good theory must answer a question. Theories are comprised of a collection hypothesis. These hypothesis must explain a certain phenomena in order to be useful. 

Logical Consistency: Does it make sense to you? Although many theories require background knowledge to fully understand, it must be based on logical truths. If the thought process behind the hypothesis is unsound, the theory becomes useless. Logical consistency can be easily assessed by the average layperson, regardless of the technical detail of a given theory. 

Parsimony: Keep it simple. Theories serve as simplified models of the real world. They are not supposed to represent the real world. Therefore a sound theory keeps things simple, utilizing intelligent assumptions and generalizations, which allows full attention to be placed on hypothesis testing.

Organizing: Power or Scope. Keeping with the theme above, a theory must be able to explain a lot with a little. 

Fruitfulness: Can a theory raise new questions? The last evaluation point is whether or not a theory is useful beyond the initial questions that it poses. Is there potential to propose new theories as an offshoot to this one? Does this theory open doors to different lines of thinking? 

Nigeria, the African Titian, shall be the first edition of the Public Times series Un-Simplified. While being the largest African country in both population and economy, Nigeria has been plagued by the factionalized, Islamist militant group known widely as Boko Haram. Elections were scheduled for February 14, 2015, but were postponed due to a variety of pressures including terrorist activity and corruption. The first entry in this series concerning oversimplified African dilemmas will look closely at the situation, providing a social, economic, and political lens to better understand the numerous and vague new articles circulating the internet. Of course, the lines between these three categories are blurry (at best), therefore readers beware of citations and references (and general complication) from this point on.

            The Basics

Nigeria is the largest African economy with an estimated population of 177 million. The government structure is extremely federalized, with 36 states held together by the national capital of Abuja. The two primary religions are Christianity and Islam, which maintain corresponding ethnic groups and territory. In the social sciences this is called “complimentary social cleavage;” which means that there are many reasons for the same line(s) that divide a society. A majority of the country’s economic power comes from the south – dominated by the coastal region and oil fields of the Niger River Delta. So in summary, the south of Nigeria maintains a strong economy, access to the coast, oil, and specific ethnic groups that culturally subscribe to Christian (I say culturally because that is what empirical. to know for sure you would have to ask everyone about their faith, define Christianity academically, and so on…). In the north, Islam is widely practiced, there is less economic activity, and infrastructure is underdeveloped.

Please remember that every academic believes that his or her field holds the answer – the truth is that a compilation must be formed, so please give each supplied category equal attention.

Society: Here and Now

            Nigeria received its independence in 1960 from Great Britain. The coastal city of Legos is home to over 21 million, making it almost three times larger than NYC. According to the CIA World Fact Book, there are over 250 ethnic groups across the country, the largest and most influential of which are the Huasa/Fulani (29%), Yoraba (21%) and Igbo/Ibo (18%). English is the official language, resulting from the British colonialism, and remaining as a bridge between the 500 additional native languages. The CIA World Fact Book estimates that the national literacy rate (men and women) was 61%, and has increased over the past five years.

Economy: International Investment and the Global Product

            Nigeria is the largest oil producing country in Africa, and had been the 6th largest contributor to US oil consumption until recent change in energy dynamics (US increase in production and Nigerian decrease in production). Since the state’s origin, oil has been used to grease the gears of growth for better and for worse. Political Scientists coined the term resource curse, referencing the near-universal phenomenon in which resource rich countries remain under-developed despite high volumes of extraction and exportation. Nigeria remains heavily dependent on oil production, leaving the national economy vulnerable to the highly volatile price of petroleum. In the current state of affairs, oil reliant states are experiencing financial downturns. As reported by the Council on Foreign Relations, “Oil constitutes more than 70 percent of Nigeria's revenue and provides more than 90 percent of its foreign exchange. Since October 2014, the national currency, the naira, has depreciated from 155 to the U.S. dollar to 191.”

Political: Democracy, Law, and Separatists

            As has been noted earlier, Nigeria is prone to extremely deep social cleavages on account of religion, ethnicity, and economic access. This multifaceted problem, is no-where more apparent than in the realm of politics. February 14th marked what was to be the Nigerian Presidential Election. The position of the United States was made very clear over the past several months as Secretary of State John Kerry applied pressure on the Nigerian administration to hold elections on the official date. However, it was announced on February 8th that the federal government was postponing the elections due to security concerns caused by increased violence at the hands of Boko Haram.

After perusing through the basics, you, dear reader, are now prepared to take on the spiders’ web. Though it will be presented here in simple form, be encouraged to explore the issue further starting with the sources provided via hyperlinks and at the end of this article.

The Puzzle: Election Date Changed

            At the heart of current media coverage lies Boko Haram. Likened to ISIS, the organization is deeply embedded in the north eastern Borno State and has expanded exponentially in the recent months. Though BBC Africa and Reuters has created an image of faceless terrorists prone to suicide bombs and bush living, the Islamist group has successfully held territory in pursuit of autonomy for the self-proclaimed caliphate. Boko haram is extremely fractioned, a thematic issue emphasized during last fall’s ceasefire and Chibok negotiations and analysis noted during the negotiations for the lost that cohesion

            At the same time, the politics in Nigeria are extremely federal. Because of the ethnic divisions, religion, and available resources, Nigerian states wield strong local power. The bet example of this is the multi-layered legal code that criss-crosses the line of secular government. Currently 9 of the 36 states use Sharia Law as the legal penal code, while the other 27 rely on the common law system stemming from the British tradition. In addition to the difference in legal code/punishment, most of the 9 Sharia states claim to have an opt-out for any Christian offenders. Of course this defaults to a de facto system, which tries the defendant according to religion rather than the societal violation. All this is to say that coherence is of limited supply within the nation. Tensions, especially now during the increased rash of bombings and raids, are high and easily triggered.

            In a public statement released by Secretary of State John Kerry, it was stated that “The United States is deeply disappointed by the decision to postpone Nigeria’s presidential election,” and continued on to say that “Political interference with the Independent National Electoral Commission is unacceptable, and it is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.” Leading up to the official election date, Nigerian officials assured the international community that there would be no alterations – but this promise was blatantly not kept.

                       Why has the US been so open about Nigerian domestic politics? A cynic would brush it off as another example of overbearing US policy – however there is some merit to the extremely undiplomatic statement. The changing of an election day by a president can only be done through emergency powers, which are often constitutionally-gray at best. The election committee of a democratic system is supposed to be independently beyond the reach of politics; specifically outside the control of the current administration. In the past, a president changing election dates to an unknown time in the future is a telltale sign of creeping authoritarianism. This is not to say that the US is accusing President Goodluck Jonathan unraveling the 20 year progress of Nigerian democracy. However, there is a fear that Boko Haram is being used as a convenient excuse for maintaining power when polls were not in the incumbents favor.

            While these political accusations may be worth their weight, there is another side to the coin – real danger. Does the indefinite cancelation of voting seem unsavory? Yes. However, Boko Haram has made more than a splash in the remote Lake Chad region. In 2009, the terrorist group was a small national problem. In 2015, it is transnational, effecting Niger, Chad, and Cameroon in addition to Nigeria. Early this year these neighbouring countries banded together to push Boko Haram out of their land. Though there has been some success (notably more than the Nigerian military has been able to muster), the mission is tactically difficult because of the village-to-village emancipation that must take place. In July 2014, Human Rights Watch released a report stating that Boko Haram was responsible for the deaths of “2,053 civilians in an estimated 95 attacks during the first half of 2014.” Since then attacks have increased in frequency and ferocity.

Was the election dater alteration a power grab by the current Administration or a decision forced by the unwavering violence of Boko Haram?

For more information please take a look at the following links:

·         BBC - Nigeria Country Profile

·         Air Strike Kills Dozens in Niger (BBC)

·         Nigeria military Says... (Reuters)

·         Boko Haram Leader Threatens to Disrupt Nigeria Polls (AllAfrica.com)

·         Niger Joins Regional Anti-Boko Haram Force

Here are 8 news stories that I think are, if not the most important stories of this year, certainly some of the ones I will be following with the most interest. Read through and let me know what you think  — do you agree? Disagree? Either way, let me know in the comments! <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-font-charset:78; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:1 134676480 16 0 131072 0;} @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} p.MsoListParagraph, li.MsoListParagraph, div.MsoListParagraph {mso-style-priority:34; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.5in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-add-space:auto; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} p.MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst, li.MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst, div.MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst {mso-style-priority:34; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-type:export-only; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.5in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-add-space:auto; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} p.MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle, li.MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle, div.MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle {mso-style-priority:34; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-type:export-only; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.5in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-add-space:auto; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} p.MsoListParagraphCxSpLast, li.MsoListParagraphCxSpLast, div.MsoListParagraphCxSpLast {mso-style-priority:34; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-type:export-only; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.5in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-add-space:auto; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:"ＭＳ 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language:JA;} @page WordSection1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;} /* List Definitions */ @list l0 {mso-list-id:819931801; mso-list-type:hybrid; mso-list-template-ids:-554135602 67698703 67698713 67698715 67698703 67698713 67698715 67698703 67698713 67698715;} @list l0:level1 {mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level2 {mso-level-number-format:alpha-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level3 {mso-level-number-format:roman-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:right; text-indent:-9.0pt;} @list l0:level4 {mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level5 {mso-level-number-format:alpha-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level6 {mso-level-number-format:roman-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:right; text-indent:-9.0pt;} @list l0:level7 {mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level8 {mso-level-number-format:alpha-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in;} @list l0:level9 {mso-level-number-format:roman-lower; mso-level-tab-stop:none; mso-level-number-position:right; text-indent:-9.0pt;} ol {margin-bottom:0in;} ul {margin-bottom:0in;} -->

1.     The rise of India: India’s economic growth, according to a recent story in the Economist, may surpass China in the upcoming next year or two. Last year, their Gross Domestic Product grew by 7.5 percent. China’s GDP, on the other hand, grew only 7.4 percent, its slowest growth in 24 years, according to Reuters. India has benefited from the drop in oil prices and its banks are lowering interest rates. This bodes well for India’s Prime Minister Modi, who is finishing his first year in office.

2.     Oil abroad… It is not secret that oil prices have been plummeting around the world, from around $110 a barrel over the last four years to less than $50, according to the BBC. This has been hurting nations like Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela, where oil makes up 70-90 percent of exports. The Islamic State continues exporting black market oil and selling it at much lower prices, bringing in almost $3 million a day

3.     …And at home: According to the BBC, the US is producing more oil than it has in the last 30 years. This is partly to the explosion of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a controversial technique for extracting oil and gas that was banned by New York late last year. The infrastructure of oil, though, is in flux. The Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada is still under debate. Unions and refineries are clashing while oil workers strike. And most recently, a train carrying oil tankers de railed in West Virginia, exploding and leaking oil into a creek.

4.     The battle for Ukraine: Despite a recent ceasefire between the government and rebel groups, neither side seems keen to comply, according to the BBC. Although fighting has mostly ceased, Rebels have taken the town of Debaltseve, and neither side has removed their heavy weaponry. The cease fire was agreed upon in Minsk, Belarus, and promised the removal of foreign troops, lifting of restriction on rebel territory, and decentralization of rebel held areas by the end of the year. Implementing it, however, appears to be more difficult than initially thought.

5.     The Islamic State: Obama has asked congress for an authorization for use of military force to target the Islamic State. The AUMF from Obama calls for a 3 year time limit and no troop involvement beyond those already on the ground. The bill has been criticized by both democrats and republicans, according to CNN. Some, such as Senator John McCain, say it is too restrictive, while others say it is too permissive. Regardless, the international response to IS will continue, particularly as they continue to execute captive internationals and members of local minority groups. Most recently, the Libyan branch of the organization beheaded 21 Egyptian Christians.

6.     Mars or bust! The Dutch non-profit Mars One, which wants to create the first colony on mars, has announced that it has narrowed the list of 200,000 potential colonizers to only 100, according to the Guardian. Out of these, they will create six teams of four. Mars One hopes to land the first of these in 2025, despite researchers MIT announcing that their plan would result in all the settlers dying within a few months. While the plan is almost a decade in the future, there will be plenty of updates between now and then.

7.     Internet for All: The Federal Communications Commission is planning to pass regulation insuring that all content on the internet remains equally easy to access, according to The Washington Post. This concept, known as net neutrality, means that all internet service providers cannot privilege certain content on the internet by blocking or slowing certain sites. Some Republicans are unhappy about what they see as overreach by the FCC, and one — Senator Dean Heller — has introduced a bill to reveal the draft FCC proposal before they vote on it on Feb. 26.

8.      And much more… These are just a few stories to watch, but there are many more. Oxfam made headlines when it announced that the worlds richest 80 people control as much of the worlds wealth as the poorest 50 percent. The #Blacklivesmatter movement which began last year around police shootings in Ferguson and elsewhere continues. Cuba and the United States may continue negotiations to restore diplomatic relations as early as next week. Many Alabama judges are ignoring a federal court ruling to issue same-sex marriage licenses until the Supreme Court rules on the matter in April. Plus, several nations – including Nigeria and Israel — have upcoming elections. 

On Sunday, Senate Armed Services Chairman, John McCain offered his support for Obama's AUMF on Meet the Press.

"If we don't like what the commander-in-chief is doing, we can cut off his funds for doing so. But to restrain him in our authorization of him taking military action, I think frankly, is unconstitutional".

This sounds to like the typical Republican reaction to militaristic foreign policy: the expansive use of the armed forces. McCain stated that restricting the President's power is similar to establishing "535 commanders-in-chief", referring to the members of congress. Obama needs the freedom and flexibility to act swiftly with all the powers afforded executive office.  Even though McCain was onboard with giving Obama this freedom to pursue military action against the militants, he was not without his criticisms. 

"In his proposal, he left out Bashar Assad, which is really amazing in that we are training young Syrians to go in and fight against Bashar Assad," McCain said. "Does that mean we aren't going to protect them against the barrel bombing of Bashar Assad, (which has) already killed well over 200,000 Syrians? It's really kind of convoluted."

Well of course Obama is going to leave out Assad if he has any hope of a single Democrat signing on. An occupation-like stance in Syria is a sure fire way to pit his own party against the AUMF.While Republicans are excited the AUMF proposal is opening the door for further military engagement in the Middle East, Democrats will are slightly more reserved. They worry that prolonged occupation will lead to another Iraq or Afghanistan. McCain reechoed conservative sentiments when he stated that Obama has withdrawn troops to early from key areas. It appears that McCain and his cohorts would like to revisit those key areas via an added provision in Obama's proposal. We'll see what happens.