A Call to Arms

SANCTIONS FROM THE SKIES: 76 RUSSIAN SHIPS IN 6 DAYS — UKRAINE HAS BECOME THE ENFORCER THE WEST REFUSED TO BE. Eighteen sanctions packages could not stop the shadow fleet. Ukrainian drones stopped it in six days. Russia has now CLOSED the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal to its own shipping. A country without a navy has shut Russia’s own sea. This is not naval warfare. This is law enforcement by drone — and every capital in the world is taking notes. Full analysis below

SANCTIONS FROM THE SKIES: UKRAINE HAS BECOME THE ENFORCER THE WEST REFUSED TO BE

Seventy-six.

When I wrote to you yesterday, Ukrainian drones had struck 36 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov in 96 hours. By the end of the fifth day, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces put the tally at 48. Then came last night: 21 tankers struck in a single night — plus four tugs, two dry cargo ships and a dredger pressed into war logistics. Twenty-eight vessels in one night. Roughly seventy-six in six days.

The largest campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet in the entire war — and look at the curve. Two ships the first night. Ten the next. Nine. Fourteen. Eighteen. Now twenty-eight. This is not a raid. This is an industrial process, and it is compounding.

But if you think the number is the story, you have missed the story entirely.

What is happening in the Sea of Azov this week is not naval warfare in any classical sense. Ukraine has no navy to speak of. What is happening is something far more consequential: law enforcement by drone. And it exposes the greatest fiction of the last four years.

THE DEAD LETTER

Cast your mind back. The G7 price cap. The sanctions packages — eighteen of them from Brussels and counting. The solemn communiqués promising to strangle Russia’s oil revenue, the lifeblood of Putin’s war machine.

And what happened? A ghost armada of aging tankers, sailing under flags of convenience, with opaque ownership and phantom insurers, made a mockery of it all. Russian oil flowed. The money flowed. The missiles that money bought flowed into Ukrainian cities.

The rules existed. The will to enforce them did not.

Readers of The Great Game will recognise this immediately. It is the Legitimacy Principle in miniature: a rules-based order that cannot enforce its own rules has already ceased to exist. The sanctions regime was not weakened by the shadow fleet. It was revealed by it — revealed as paper.

UKRAINE STEPS INTO THE VACUUM

Now look at what Ukraine has done.

The tankers Ukraine has identified in these strikes were already sanctioned vessels — ships the West itself had blacklisted, named, and then watched sail on regardless. Ukraine is not making new law in the Sea of Azov. It is enforcing existing law that the West wrote, signed, and then declined to uphold.

Kyiv has gone further. In a formal letter to the International Maritime Organization, Ukraine’s government argued that vessels serving Russia’s war logistics cannot be regarded as ordinary commercial shipping — and may constitute legitimate military targets. Where the West left a blank page, Ukraine is writing doctrine, and filing it with the world’s maritime authority.

Think about what this means. OFAC could not stop these ships. Brussels could not stop these ships. Lloyd’s of London could not stop these ships. Drones assembled in Ukrainian workshops stopped them in six days.

Legitimacy does not flow to those who write rules. It flows to those who act.

CRIMEA IS SUFFOCATING

And the strategy beneath the principle is devastating.

Follow the sequence. Ukrainian strikes on Crimea’s oil facilities forced fuel rationing on the peninsula as early as late May. The land corridor from Russia came under sustained fire. That left one artery: the sea route across the Azov, from Taganrog to the occupied peninsula.

That artery is now closed.

Not metaphorically. Russia has suspended commercial navigation through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal — the Border Guard Service has simply stopped accepting passage applications. And the wound is bleeding beyond Crimea: the Azov carries up to a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports, and wheat futures on Euronext leapt nearly 4% to a six-week high within hours. Ukraine did not just close Russia’s supply line to Crimea. It closed Russia’s own sea.

The tell is in the details: several tankers were struck twice in the same week. Twice! Russia is sending the same battered ships down the same gauntlet because it has no other route. Moscow has even resorted to disguising fuel shipments as milk and water tankers — the logistics of a power in desperation, not a power in control.

Those who read my analysis of the Crimea logistics collapse will understand: this is that thesis entering its terminal phase. A rear base that cannot be fuelled is not a rear base. It is a hostage.

THE PRECEDENT

Here is the lesson the world’s capitals are absorbing tonight, whether they admit it or not:

In the post-rules order, sanctions are only as real as the actor willing to enforce them kinetically. Paper regimes deter no one. Enforcement is legitimacy.

Ukraine — outgunned, outspent, written off a hundred times — has just demonstrated what enforcement looks like. Not with a blue-water navy. Not with a carrier group. With will, ingenuity, and machines that cost less than the cargo they destroy.

The question that should keep strategists awake is not what happens to the next Russian tanker in the Azov.

It is: who learns this lesson next — and in which strait?

The Great Game continues.

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I'm obsessed with gardening systems that utilize rainwater without the use of barrels or cisterns. My ultimate fav is using bioswales to catch and filter stormwater on the street.

Fun addition: Dams that utilize trees to catch dirt/ stop erosion, and prevent disaster that can come from broken dams.

SUSTAINABLE URBAN DRAINAGE! SUDS!

We need more of them, in the right places!

Also, using these to reduce stormwater loads in storm events, particularly in places with combined stormwater and sewage systems, could/would be helpful at reducing river discharges of raw sewage. (If climate change is factored in at system level cos more rain in less time needs to be accouted for at rhe large scale designs...)

Excerpt from this story from National Geographic:

1775-1819 In 1775, most of the United States was still Indigenous land; however, even George Washington acknowledged that it would require a “great wall” to restrain European settlers from encroaching on Indigenous territory. Over 200 years of land transfers (in which lands previously inhabited by Indigenous people became official property of non-Indigenous people), the Indigenous population was gradually confined to small areas within the U.S.

1820-1864 By 1820, settlers had moved well into the Midwest, displacing Indigenous inhabitants through conflict or the simple pressure of their presence. By 1834, the frontier reached as far as Kansas. In one astonishing 14-year period, starting in 1850 and motivated by mid-century gold finds, nearly the entire west coast of the United States transferred from Indigenous to U.S. hands. The only state still almost entirely unscathed was New Mexico.

1865-1894 At the end of the Civil War, 20,000 soldiers were manning western forts. Between 1865 and 1879, vast areas of land were seized, including the rest of Kansas and most of Texas, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Nevada. The Department of War struggled against the Apache and Navajo in New Mexico. Cessations and treaties continued to chip away at Indigenous lands, with the exception of Oklahoma, though the 1887 Dawes Act would soon change that.

ICE kills again, this time in Maine.

Immigrant advocates call for transparent investigation

The Maine Immigrants' Rights Coalition and Presente! Maine called for state and federal authorities to conduct a "prompt, independent, and transparent investigation" of each agency and officer involved in the shooting.

"ICE must not be allowed to investigate itself or control the public narrative surrounding a death in which its personnel or operations were involved," the advocacy groups said in a news release Monday afternoon. "We also call on our elected officials to invest in a fair, functional, and humane immigration system, not further expansion of immigration enforcement, and to strengthen protections that prevent local resources from being diverted toward federal immigration enforcement."

Immigrant organizations identify man who died as immigrant from Colombia

The Maine Immigrants' Rights Coalition and Presente! Maine said the person who died in the shooting is a 26-year-old Colombian man.

Presente! said the man was authorized to work in the U.S. and had been issued a Social Security number.

"He was a member of our community, a neighbor, and a human being whose life was cut tragically short. We extend our deepest condolences to his family, loved ones, and everyone now grieving this unimaginable loss," the organizations said in a statement.

The organization said the shooting was not reported through MIRC's Immigrant Defense hotline, but other ICE activity in the area had been.