A dangerous illness appears to be afflicting the music industry.
In recent weeks big-name artists including Meghan Trainor, Zayn Malik, Post Malone and the Pussycat Dolls have cancelled performances or entire tours.
Only the Pussycat Dolls referenced disappointing ticket sales as a reason for the cancellations, but fans believe they all represent a case of “blue dot fever”.
The phrase takes its name from the symbols for empty seats on the Ticketmaster website, signifying unsold tickets.
For years fans have grumbled about the rising price of concerts but paid anyway amid the post-Covid live music boom in which stars such as Taylor Swift mounted record-breaking tours. Now, amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, there are signs that consumer tolerance for high prices is breaking and a correction is taking place.
“In 2021 and 2022 there was such pent-up demand that it was really easy to tour and everybody was making a lot of money,” said JR Lind, a senior writer at Pollstar, the live music industry trade publication.
“Now, there’s a little bit of coming back to earth. And that’s running into inflation and rising fuel costs that we’re seeing across the broader economy. Affordability is going to start affecting concerts.”
Trainor, the chart-topping pop star known for hits such as All About that Bass and Made You Look, cancelled her Get In Girl tour last month, saying she needed to be home for her family. Fans, however, noted that seating maps showed many tickets were unsold.
The rapper Post Malone cancelled six tour dates last week, claiming he needed more time to work on new music. For the opening night of his tour at the Bank of America Stadium in North Carolina on June 9, blue dots populate all sections of the venue.
Floor seats near the stage cost $682, while fans can still purchase a VIP package for $935. Cheaper tickets in the upper levels of the stadium cost about $70.
Malik, the former One Direction star, cited health reasons for cancelling his US tour but Variety noted that ticket sales had been “soft”.
The Pussycat Dolls announced the cancellation of the US leg of their comeback tour this week “after taking an honest look at the North American run”. Ticket prices were not particularly high, generally ranging from $50 to $120, suggesting that even relatively affordable tours are not immune when demand is overestimated.
Nevertheless, concert ticket prices have risen significantly in recent years.
Average primary-market ticket prices jumped 41.3 per cent between 2019 and 2024, from $96.17 to $135.92, according to Pollstar. Fans complain not only about the cost of getting through the door but travel, hotel and merchandise, which can raise the price of a concert significantly.
Lind believes the biggest artists who sell out stadiums will largely be immune to “blue dot fever” but acts who perform in arenas and amphitheatres are more vulnerable.
“People will complain about the high price of tickets, but what we generally see is that for the top acts they will still pay those prices,” he said. “Where the pressure is now is for those acts that are a little bit below that.”
Clayton Durant, an adjunct professor of music business at New York University’s Steinhardt school, said the fragile geopolitical situation was also a factor.
Modern tours for big artists are significant logistical efforts that involve fleets of trucks driving from city to city, ferrying equipment from one venue to another. The rise of fuel costs since the war in Iran began will have changed the financial picture of artists and their teams, Durant said.
Tours that once looked profitable on paper can quickly become marginal as costs rise. “You might be looking at a tour that started out with the national average gas price around $3 and now it’s $4.50,” he said. “That’s a big difference for these tours that have a bunch of trucks moving things on the road. And then some of these tours have to deal with jet fuel, which has also risen.”
Artists are facing a competitive market for live events this summer, Durant noted. As well as the A-list music stars hitting the road, the US and Canada are also hosting the football World Cup alongside Mexico, and Fifa has faced widespread criticism over its expensive ticket prices.
Consumers hoping to attend the football tournament may not be able to afford to also buy concert tickets, Durant said, squeezing out some performers. “The cancellation of these tours doesn’t necessarily mean these artists lack sellable capacity; it might just mean there’s a lot of competition in the marketplace,” he added.
