The Northern Ireland Eurovision Statistical Representation Organisation (NIESRO) is made up of two Eurovision fans from Northern Ireland who make maps and graphs from time to time and so thought it might be fun to join forces and make a blog to team up and take requests.
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First Participation: 1961 (Conchita Bautista - “Estando Contigo”)
Most Recent Participation: 2015 (Edurne - “Amanecer")
No. of Solo Female Singers: 21 (38%)
No. of Solo Male Singers: 22 (40%)
No. of Duos/Groups: 12 (22%)
Qualification from Semifinals: N/A (member of Big 4/5)
Results:
Wins: 2 (1968, 1969)
First Winner: Massiel - “La La La”
Last Places: 4 (1962, 1965, 1983, 1999)
Nil Points: 3 (1962, 1965, 1983)
Most Points: 1973 (125 points to Mocedades - “Eres Tu” - 2nd)
Languages (Entries Performed Over Half In…….):
Spanish: 54
English: 1
(The entries in 2002, 2007, 2008 & 2009 featured mainly Spanish lyrics with some English lines, while the entry in 1978 featured mainly Spanish lyrics with a line of French in the chorus)
Dark green - Confirmed as participating (21)
Light green - Not confirmed, but interest expressed (8)
Orange - Not confirmed, but participation in doubt (2)
Red - Confirmed as not participating (2)
White - participated or intended to participate in the past, but no reliable participation news yet available (20)
EUROVISION 2016 PARTICIPATION MAP (as of 15 July 2015)
As of yesterday, Eurovision 2016 is 10 long months away, and although not much Eurovision-related news has been appearing, participation announcements have been creeping in little by little, so here’s some of the most notable news so far:
First, the good news is that already two countries have confirmed their comebacks: Ukraine, who had to sit out in 2015 due to ecomonic and political issues, and Turkey, who withdrew back in 2013 due to issues with the voting and Big 5, and continued to distance itself in subsequent years, and I honestly thought we wouldn’t see them return for at least a few more years. Regardless, they’ve announced their commitment to coming back, and the return of both of these countries will be great news to anyone who felt that the 2014 contest lacked its usual vibrancy that these two countries often provide. There are three more countries to keep an eye on as well: Croatia’s broadcaster (HRT) has suggested that they could come back with the winner of The Voice, Bulgaria’s broadcaster (BNT) is seeking to collaborate with another broadcaster (bTV) in order to increase participation funds, and Slovakia’s broadcaster (RTVS) has stated that they would like to better promote their culture internationally, having already used Eurovision Young Dancers 2015 as a test of public interest. Five returns in one year is a long shot, but it would be such a good boost to the contest’s numbers, so fingers crossed!
There’s no major bad news so far, and the only thing to take note of is that Montenegro is not pleased with the EBU right now. They feel they shouldn’t have had their jury disqualified despite the EBU claiming that their similar results constituted a mathematical impossibility. It may amount to nothing and Montenegro might remain in the contest nonetheless, but it’s something to take note of as the deadline approaches.
I’m going to throw it out there that I think Greece could withdraw this year, I don’t know whether the Czech Republic would bother to stay despite them having by far their best result last year, and the only other country that has expressed any semblance of doubt has been Slovenia (who are nonetheless optimistic and willing to participate), so any other withdrawals would be a surprise. Even Australia will probably be back assuming the EBU allows it, so I really hope that the participation numbers are increased again, but there are still many months to go and many countries to confirm, so we’ll just have to wait and see.
ESC2015's results using the original televoting/jury system
First off, I'm aware that teamgianluca posted their results from the exact same method of ranking previously, but I spent a long time on this, and I have a lot about say about it, so I hope you can forgive me for being late to the party.
This year, EBU continued to use the "new" method of ranking Eurovision results where the televotes and jury votes were ranked 1 to however many countries (27 this year), combining them, and converting the combined totals into points. The problem is that if a country's public were to rank another country as first, but the jury ranked that same country as last or near-last, then the televote's top choice is given no points, as happened with Italy and Switzerland this year. Many believe that this is not fair, as the will of the people is ignored, and that just isn't very democratic.
And so, I've taken it upon myself to recalculate the votes using the "old" method used between 2009 and 2012 where only the public's and jury's top tens were considered and combined, to see if this gives a result which better reflects teamwork between juries and televotes rather than tension between the two:
Here are the results I calculated, along with the change in position compared to the actual result:
Sweden - 364
Italy - 307 (+1)
Russia - 299 (-1)
Belgium - 206
Australia - 178
Latvia - 172
Norway - 95 (+1)
Estonia - 90 (-1)
Israel - 84
Albania - 62 (+7)
Armenia - 52 (+5)
Georgia - 50 (-1)
Serbia - 48 (-3)
Montenegro - 48 (-1)
Azerbaijan - 40 (-3)
Romania - 39 (-1)
Slovenia - 34 (-3)
Lithuania - 33
Cyprus - 23 (+3)
Greece - 23 (-1)
Hungary - 18 (-1)
Poland - 17 (+1)
Austria - 10 (+4)
Germany - 9 (+2)
France - 8
Spain - 8 (-5)
United Kingdom - 3 (-3)
BIGGEST GAINS
Albania +7
Armenia +5
Austria +4
Cyprus +3
BIGGEST LOSSES
Spain -5
Serbia -3
Azerbaijan -3
Slovenia -3
United Kingdom -3
Some observations:
For 17 of the 27 countries, the change in position was no more than one up or down, but it's easy to see that three countries lost four or more places in the real thing compared to this result, while only one country, Spain, benefitted more four or more places.
Another notable occurrence is that the nul points are both gone, and in fact Austria and Germany both jumped up the board a little. In my opinion, the new system gives too many points to the top of the board and leaves the bottom countries vulnerable to low scores just as we saw this year and have seen for the previous two years too.
However, while Italy actually improved and Australia stayed put, the rest of the Big 5+ occupied the bottom five positions. This seems to be a bias of the televoters because the juries placed most of them much higher.
Finally, I want to point out that neither method seems more susceptible to bloc voting, so there's no argument to be made there as far as I'm concerned.
Now I want to show some examples, specifically Italy and Switzerland, the two countries whose juries eradicated the public's 12 point vote, and in the case of Italy, their 10 point vote too.
First, here's a comparison of the two methods using Italy's vote:
Both methods produced the same 12 and 10 points, which is the same as happened for every country no matter the method used. However, when only top 10s are combined instead of every single ranking, the public's 12 becomes an 8 and the public's 10 becomes a 5, so instead of being eradicated, the jury simply pushed them down a bit. The televote and jury vote work together instead of against each other, and I think the result on the right is the fairer one.
Now the same thing for Switzerland:
Once again, using the old method, the top vote is no longer eradicated, instead pushed down to 7, but we also see how jury votes can work with the televotes in a fairer way. Lithuania and Austria clearly found much better favour with the juries than with the televoters, and so using the old method allows these two songs some points where the new method did not. This is one example of Austria (and Germany in the case of some other countries) being able to avoid the nul points that they really did not deserve.
Finally, I'm going to show France's votes as well because, as far I can tell, their votes show the most difference between the methods:
This is the only case of a country's 10 points changing between the two methods, and here's why:
(Keep in mind that in this case the top voted country gets 10 and then it goes downwards instead of starting at 1 and going up).
When using the new system, Italy (and Latvia somewhat) are dragged down by one half of the equation despite winning the other halves, but when only top 10s are considered, this issue is removed. This creates a four-way tie from which Italy emerges the victor due to having the highest televote rank. This allows the televote to remain more important than the jury vote, which is what is needed to keep the contest in the hands of the public. What's more, the 7-9 ranks (corresponding to 4-2 points) shows a nice balance between jury choices and public choices which are dragged down by each other in the new system.
And after all that, I truly believe this shows the old system allowing the two halves of the equation to work together instead of against each other. I really do hope that the EBU really thinks about how the methodology clashed this year, and makes appropriate changes, because the juries should be there for adjustments, not to completely ignore the will of the people. By this, I'm not referring to Italy, which loses in both systems, but more to Armenia and especially Albania, the country who got the televote 12 points from Italy and Switzerland, and subsequently lost both of them completely. A fair system need to favour the will of the masses over the will of the few, and that's not what happened in many cases in Eurovision 2015.
This decade sees the introduction of the televote, as well the semi-final, and the vast majority of countries in the contest today were competing by the end of this era, meaning many aspects we know well in the contest like bloc voting and qualification originate here. For the first time we see ten different winners in this decade. In fact, this decade falls entirely within the longest streak of unique winners (from Norway 1995 to Azerbaijan 2011). As such, the position 2nd-5th start to matter a lot more in this ranking. But which country manages to edge the win?
With higher positions taking precedence
With the number of top 5 finishes taking precedence
In the case of ties in the top 5, both countries are awarded the same placing unless a reliable tie-break method can be implemented.
Who’da seen that one coming? While Estonia have been pretty hit-and-miss since their debut, the UK have struggled to make an impact at all on the 2000s, but their first and second placings from early on, plus their joint third position with Estonia in 2002 (which I’ve placed fourth using tie-break rules) make them eligible for most successful of the decade. I’m gonna give this one to Estonia because the UK has already won one (between 1966 and 1975). Other interesting points:
While the West continued to dominate last decade, the East finally had their moment, with six Eastern wins, five of which were consecutive. Actually, I’m disappointed that dividing the contest in this way doesn’t really highlight how much the East made their mark from 2001 to 2005 (and beyond), although it will become more apparent in the next decade (unless something crazy happens in Eurovision 2015).
However, the new Eastern dominance was not limited to newer participants. as long-time underachievers Greece and Turkey both found their rhythm in this decade. Denmark had their most successful decade since the early contest too.
Switzerland and Italy saw the biggest drops since last decade, although Italy has the excuse of not being there for most of it.
Only Ukraine won without placing top 5 again, but they only entered in 2003, and the level of overall success in the next decade arguably exceeds their win.
And at this stage, even I don’t know what next week’s chart will look like. The countries in contention include recent winners (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan) and countries who either haven’t won before or haven’t in a while (Italy, Estonia, Slovenia, Iceland), even Australia could be making an appearance somewhere in the list, so have fun this week and we’ll see who wins the sixth decade!
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This era sees the break-up of Eastern Europe and the first signs of new dynamics in the contest from both old time competitors in the former Yugoslav republics and brand new competition from the former Soviets. It also showed the first and thus far only effective tie-break in the history of the contest. However, this Eurovision decade was not about any of that, but about one country only, and you all know who it is, so there’s no point in building suspense:
With higher positions taking precedence
With the number of top 5 finishes taking precedence
In the case of ties in the top 5, both countries are awarded the same placing unless a reliable tie-break method can be implemented.
What can I say? Ireland actually found it hard to fail in this era, which sounds like an amazing problem to have, but when your broadcaster is about to go bankrupt from hosting the contest so much, it’s maybe not so great. In fact, if you counted from 1987 to 1996, Ireland would have 5 wins, which is half the wins of that timeslot. Other stuff:
Much like in the first decade, UK is left with a bunch of second-place finishes but no wins. In fact, Ireland and UK constituted the top two in 1992 and 1993.
Italy and Yugoslavia see significant gains, which is especially lucky for Yugoslavia who won after competing in 25 contests and would cease to exist within two years of hosting.
Israel and Germany, the successes of the last decade, both take a knock.
Belgium manages a win without being to back it up with any other top 5 finishes in that decade.
The top 5 in this era is still something of an old boys’ club, and no new contender manages more than one top 5 placing, although once that lot get into the Eurovision tradition, the table will certain start to change dramatically.
Next time we see the watershed that the millenium brings, but how will the old and new stack up?
This decade of Eurovision saw three countries achieve their first wins, two countries achieve their final wins (at the time of writing this), even Morocco decided to give it a go (unsuccessfully). But who had the best track record of the decade?
With higher positions taking precedence
With the number of top 5 finishes taking precedence
In the case of ties in the top 5, both countries are awarded the same placing unless a reliable tie-break method can be implemented.
Israel or Germany, take your pick! Israel has more wins, Germany has more top 5 finishes overall. Other statistics of note:
Germany shows the biggest improvements in the long run with their four top 2 positions being the first time they managed any top 2 positions despite being in the contest from the very start.
The Netherlands almost falls from the chart entirely after two wins in each of the previous decades.
Luxembourg and Norway both have their win as their only top 5 placing of this decade, which for Luxembourg is a letdown but is a roaring success for Norway, better known for their last-place and nul-points finishes.
Next week, we venture into the late 80s and early 90s, and until then we can all pretend we don’t know who did best in that era.
This decade includes the contest’s only tied winners, the breakdown of the first common voting system, the introduction of the current voting system and the discovery of ABBA, amongst other things. But who has risen to power and fallen from grace between the first and second decade of the contest?
With higher positions taking precedence
With the number of top 5 finishes taking precedence
In the case of ties in the top 5, both countries are awarded the same placing unless a reliable tie-break method can be implemented.
The UK takes this round! Equalling France’s 9/10 top five places from the last decade, and winning twice in the process, this is most definitely the height of British success, largely helped by the big names they sent in this time. Many other significant changes occur in this decade too:
Spain goes from zero top 5 placings in the first decade to the second-most successful country in this one. Other significant gains include Ireland’s first appearance on the chart, bagging their first win.
On the other end of the spectrum, Switzerland takes the biggest tumble, France takes inevitably drops although they still manage a win, and Denmark drops off the chart due to being absent most of the decade.
Every country that won in this decade had at least one other top five placing.
Luxembourg was the only country not share its two wins, with the UK, Spain and the Netherlands all taking part in the 1969 tie.
Next time, we pass into the 80s and the contest powerhouses continue to change, but who dominates the third decade of the contest? You’ll have to wait and see.
This is a continuation (or reboot?) of a series I started about 8 months ago which ranks countries according to the number of top five positions they get in a decade. Why top five? I feel like people use the top 5 as the cut-off between a good position and a great one, and although top 10 has a special status too, it doesn't really hold much significance in earlier contests where the number of entries was only in the teens.
First we look at 1956-1965, when only 16 countries participated at any point, and no-one could have predicted how big the contest would become. Who reigned supreme during the first ten years of the contest?
With higher positions taking precedence
With the number of top 5 finishes taking precedence
In the case of ties in the top 5, both countries are awarded the same placing unless a reliable tie-break method can be implemented. Also, because no ranking was given for the first contest, all except Switzerland are recorded for their nine known results between 1957 and 1965
I think we all expected France to win this round, didn't we? They placed in the top 5 all nine years where the results are known, including three of their five wins, and I don’t doubt they made it to the top 5 at least once in 1956 too. Some other interesting points:
Four countries didn't manage any top 5 finishes in this era: Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, although Ireland and Portugal had only been in the game for one and two years respectively at that point so that can be forgiven, while Finland and Spain both went five contests without a top five.
The Netherlands has a habit of almost always either winning or doing terribly, a trend they never really grew out of even to this day (for example, 2014 was their first second-place finish ever). As such, they are the only country with at least one win and no other top 5.
The UK rack up five of their fifteen second-place finishes in this decade, and despite not winning, they still have the second highest number of top 5 finishes after France.
If all goes to plan, this will be a weekly thing which will lead up to the 60th contest so that I’m able to post the sixth decade’s results the day after the 60th winner is chosen. Next week: 1966-1975!
I was recently asked by dynamiciiva about the average number of years between Eurovision wins. As of the conclusion of the 2014 contest, the answer rests at 11 years (rounded to the nearest whole number), but data shows so much that I've decided to do a fact file on countries with multiple wins:
The Netherlands was the first country to win more than once, and is the only country to have already achieved this feat in the 50s
Every country that won the 1969 contest had won at least once already
The only Eastern country with a repeat win is Israel
Spain is the only country to have won back-to-back and never to have won again, and is also the only country with only one repeat win whose two wins were less than 25 years apart
Austria hold the title for longest gap between wins with 48 years
The longest streak of re-wins was 11 years (1990-2000)
The longest streak of first-time winners was 8 years (2001-2008)
The most common number of years between wins is either 1, 2 or 10 years, with five repeated wins taking each number of years to occur.
Excluding Spain, the most concentrated set of wins comes from Ireland, with an average gap of 4 contests per win (helped greatly by their four near-consecutive wins in the 90s)
Here is the entire list of re-wins:
If anyone has any request for facts, maps, charts, whatever, our ask box is ready and waiting!
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You have norwegian instead of greek in greece's factfile :)
arabela25 but didn’t you know that the greeks sent most of their entries in norwegian? like i haven’t made a mistake its just one of those weird esc relationships haha ha ha. (nah just kidding I’ve changed it now and will deny that the mistake ever existed) (thanks tho :) )
Most Points: 2009 (387 points to Alexander Rybak - "Fairytale")
Languages (Entries Performed Over Half In.......):
Norwegian: 35
English: 18
French: 1 (1973)
Swahili: 1 (2011)
In addition to being performed half in English, and half in French, the Norwegian entry in 1973, It's Just A Game by the Bendik Singers also featured small phrases in Italian, Spanish, Dutch, German, Hebrew, Serbo-Croat, Finnish, Irish and Norwegian.
Hostings:
1986:
City: Bergen
Venue: Grieghallen
Host: Ase Kleveland
1996:
City: Oslo
Venue: Oslo Spektrum
Hosts: Ingvild Bryn and Morten Harket
2009:
City: Oslo
Venue: Telenor Arena
Hosts: Nadia Hasnaoui, Haddy N'jie and Erik Solbakken
Dark green - Confirmed as participating (34)
Light green - Albania, who have opened submissions to Festivali i Këngës, but have not confirmed participation
Orange - Greece, who have reportedly confirmed despite not currently being eligible to participate
Red - Confirmed as not participating (7)
White - No reliable participation news available (8)
EUROVISION 2015 PARTICIPATION MAP (as of 15 September 2014)
A lot has happened in terms of confirmation in the past two weeks, especially today. Lebanon unsurprisingly decided to sit out again, and with Israel confirmed, any chance of Morocco or Tunisia confirming seems unlikely.
In spite of this, this year’s returning total has risen to four, with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Bulgaria all joining Cyprus in making welcome returns, and I expect Croatia will join that party tomorrow. On the other hand, a worrying point has been raised about NERIT of Greece not having gained EBU membership in the past year, meaning they’ll probably be forced to take a year out.
Tomorrow we’ll expect news from Albania, Croatia, Moldova, Poland, San Marino, Slovenia and Ukraine, and in my view I don’t see why any of these countries would sit out, so I hope to see at least 40 as the final participation number, although frankly, anything above last year’s drop to 37 would be appreciated.
Dark green - Confirmed as participating (26)
Light green - Not confirmed, but participation expected (7)
Orange (or yellow idk you decide) - Not confirmed, but participation not expected (2)
Red - Confirmed as not participating (6)
White - No reliable participation news available (9)
EUROVISION 2015 PARTICIPATION MAP (as of 31 August 2014)
It's been two months since my last participation map, and if there's one thing that goes without saying, there's a lot more colour. The Big 5 are all game, but Spain and Italy are making us infer since Spain said to "mark your diaries" and Italy is one of the many new JESC participants. Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Turkey all shocked us by... deciding not to participate again, and Romania is also redoing the whole "We ain't got no money" spiel they did last year. Maybe Mihai Trăistariu will actually return this year to save the day this time? On the flip side, Bosnia's story has developed from not likely to pretty likely, so that should be exciting for BH fans (and I know there are quite a few), and Georgia's possible disqualification never came to be.
All the shades of green add up to 33 participating or hinting as such, and Wiwibloggs said Poland is but Wikipedia doesn't trust them so I have to go by that. I see all the whites which were in it last year returning, and I hope EBU is trying their hardest to get Morocco, Lebanon, Tunisia and maybe even new faces since Israel probably won't impede them. If all the white countries turn green in the coming months, we'll be looking at 42 participants, but honestly I think 39 will be the final number by discounting Morocco, Lebanon and Tunisia because I have a feeling none of them will end up in that final line-up. I guess we'll have to see when that early deadline comes.
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Iceland and United Kingdom both received 8 votes, and the rest of the Top 5 is as follows:
Iceland 8 votes
=United Kingdom 8 votes
Malta 7 votes
Italy 6 votes
=Portugal 6 votes
Malta and the United Kingdom replace Romania and Hungary from last year's survey, and Iceland rises to the top while Portugal falls to fifth. Italy is down one too (last year's was Portugal, Iceland, Italy, Romania, Hungary).
and here's the full map
Key
Pink - 8 votes (Iceland, United Kingdom)
Purple - 7 votes (Malta)
Dark blue - 6 votes (Italy, Portugal)
Light blue - 5 votes (Netherlands, Romania)
Dark green - 4 votes (Moldova, Montenegro)
Light green - 3 votes (Bulgaria, Hungary)
Orange - 2 votes (Armenia, Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Turkey)
Red - 1 vote (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, Norway, Palestine, San Marino, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland)
There are a lot of telling things you can draw from this like:
The top 5 are now all Western, in fact, the Top 6 are, with Netherlands just missing out, however a wide range of Eastern countries gained multiple votes, perhaps because the East hasn't won for a while, and so there's a wider range to choose from, and in the end West/East votes come to 51/41, not a terribly wide gap, but a gap nonetheless.
Non-winners amassed 56 votes, while previous winners got only 36, proving that Europals love the underdog, but that's expected.
The past 10 winners got 4 votes altogether, and none got more than 1, so again, keeping it varied.
Interestingly, quite a few votes went to countries who either haven't participated or no longer participate ever. There's definitely room for expansion southwards, and who knows? Maybe with Israel gone this year, we might see a few.
Many countries were missed out completely, such as much of the Soviets (to be fair, not the greatest place for a contest atm + recent winner), central Europe (many non-participants and recent winners), and one or two from the Balkans (there are a lot of Balkans so the votes appear sporadic there) and Scandinavia (recent winners). However, the map is surprisingly well filled, everyone has a different line-up, and also some that unite the majority, which is healthy for such a wide contest.
16 votes were for the Big 5 (mostly for UK and Italy), with Germany being the only ignored one, so clearly there's interest in that area, especially with the renewed hope for many for them recently.
Thanks to everyone who contributed, this was a lot of fun to collect and pore over, so I'm very grateful. Onward to Vienna! (or Innsbruck or Graz but lbr)
Also, I did my best not to miss anyone that had posted in the tag, but I'm really sorry if I missed yours or one of your countries, I'm only human, and I'm very very sorry if that happened.
Who has been the most successful country of the 2010s so far?
Wow! Azerbaijan tops it? Quelle surprise! The country everyone loves to hate (or used to, at least) is the only country to attain four Top 5 appearances since 2010, but no-one is shocked there. The rest of the Top 5 Top 5 is Sweden, Denmark, Russia, and Ukraine, who coincidentally are the only countries with repeat success. Other notable things include:
Of a possible 25 countries (5 positions for 5 years), 16 have managed at least one spot. That seems about average to me, but I'm not sure how to check;
In a nice bit of symmetry, both 3-timers are Scandinavians, while the 2-timers are Europe's former besties, Russia and Ukraine;
2011 and 2013 are the most 'typical' years, with only one unique Top 5 position in each (Italy, Norway), while 2014 was most 'diverse', introducing four new Top 5 positions (Sweden being the only repeat offender);
Years with a winning country that has failed to attain any other Top 5s tend to be more diverse overall i.e. in 2010, the Top 3 were unique, and 2014 went one better as explained above;
Russia is the biggest loser, with Ukraine just a smidgen behind;
The most common position for non-winners is second (so close! yet so far, I guess) with Azerbaijan's 2013 runner-up the only instance to the contrary.
I'm thinking of doing one of these every two months (bimestrial, if you will), with the participation (and eventually song/artist) map on the in-between months, starting with 1956-1965 in September and going up to 2006-2015 at the end of May. That is, unless you guys aren't fussed on this type of thing, which is fine, just say so.
Also, if you know of a better way to represent this than an Excel document screenshot, please suggest it! I'd love to tidy up the results if I can.
