More Than Fantasy

Welcome back to our first 100% return rate season. This is the group that you will tell your grandkids about. The group that will eventually meet up for a live draft in Vegas, Atlantic City, or beautiful Rochester, NY.  The group that suffered through the atrocious shit talking of CrazedCatz.

This year’s draft was full of surprises and broken trends. Carson failed to secure a top-notch QB-WR combo, but did manage to grab Eli’s WR3 in Randle. Jack failed to make a mind-numbing draft pick (Dion Branch ’12) which makes me think he farmed out his draft to a fantasy expert. Draper continued his retaliation assault on me after sending out my pre-draft video, crushing me with another one-liner for which I had no response for. My laundry is done sir. After drafting Michael Turner, which made me puke up beer wine, Colin said “at least I didn’t pick a WR on IR” clearly forgetting that he drafted Percy Harvin a few picks earlier. Even if Percy avoids the IR, he’s not worth holding onto at this point.

The recurring theme of this draft was ‘fuck Marcotte’. I was bid-up on just about every player I wanted, and in turn, almost screwing up my draft. Sproles, Amendola, Cameron, Wilson, Welker, Sudfeld and Hilton all fell into this category, to name a few. At least Janda had a good time seeing me stuggle. All of this culminated in the $73 bid of CJ Spiller. If he stays healthy, I have no problem with that bid. He could easily be the #1 overall RB.

Jenny is hot. I’m getting closer and closer to that age where you need to start dating in order to meet a girl, who doesn’t drive you completely insane, and that you could fathom the idea of spending the rest of your life with. God that sounds awful just typing it. I’m entertaing the idea of www.fantasymatch.com with the sole intent of meeting girls who are into fantasy sports. I don’t think it’s a viable business plan, but it seems to improve the chances of meeting a girl that can deal with my habit. To be honest, the only thing I’m putting a ring on this year is my finger after winning the league. I’ll have to use my winnings to buy a ring first, and I probably won’t even do that. My story just unraveled itself. Nevertheless, I’ll be checking out trophies for this year. I’ve been talking about it for too long and it makes sense to buy it the year I win it. Humans are born selfish – get over it.

I really need to make MoreThanFantasy take off at some point so I can stop working for the man and do something I actually love. If you have any ideas for in-season articles, simple or crazy, shoot them to me so I have more to work on. I’m looking to change the game, not replicate it. Why can’t Professional Fantasy Sports Commissioner be a real thing? I’d fucking kill that interview and make it to the top of my profession. I realistically could commish 100+ leagues if it was my full time job. Unfortunately, I’d need to charge over $200 per league to make a living off of it. Again, not a solid business plan.

Anybody want to see some power rankings? This year I’ve created yet another strategy to analyze each team and justify placing them in their post-draft ranking. I looked at Top Draft Picks and Team Potential. Top Draft Picks are players that would be drafted in the first 5-6 rounds of a standard draft. Team Potential is the amount of players with breakout potential (according to my fantastic draft kit – still available for $5). E.g. “Team Name” (TDP 6 / TP 4).

#1 – Kevin MacArthur (6/4) – yup. I may not be 100% accurate in my power rankings, but I do stay true to my word. Not only will I analyze my team for you, but I will explain to you how I followed my 2013 Blueprint to winning a league. Quarterbacks are being overvalued this year due to 2011’s influx of high scoring elite QB’s. It was the trend last year, burning many teams who spent on a QB and inexplicitly continued over into 2013. Blueprint Rule #1: don’t overspend on a QB. There are a couple glaring observations to take away from the chart to the right (Tumblr won't allow me to paste my table, sorry). Quarterbacks generally have the least variation from year to year in their production. If we assume that these guys produce similar point totals this year, QB’s like Stafford, Kaepernick, Wilson, Eli and RG3 will all give you significant point totals for their value. Auction Drafts are all about maximizing value, which I believe I did very well across the positions. Blueprint Rule #1: get at least 2 top 15 WR’s. Roddy and Andre were both around $40, and although they are getting older, they are still reliable weapons in high-powered offenses. James Jones could prove to be a steal at $13 if Jordy misses any sort of time and/or Jones duplicates his 2012 performance. As I mentioned before Spiller was expensive but could definitely produce statistics valued at $70. Supply and Demand: 1, Marcotte: 0. Blueprint Rule #3: get 3 starting RB’s.  I didn’t execute exactly to plan, but Bradshaw and Richardson are both starting RB’s who should push 200-250 carries this year. Supply and Demand got me again on Bradshaw, but Richardson was a steal in my book.  I grabbed Bernard, Thomas and Dunbar as backup/handcuffs in case Bradford’s foot explodes after a cut. Blueprint Rule #4: don’t spend for any TE not named Jimmy Graham. Admittedly, I am weak at the TE position. I drafted 2 young, athletic guys, who could possibly have decent years this year. Streaming the TE position has proved fairly successful in the past few years and after the 2nd tier of TE’s, production is really up in the air. I saved up for Sudfeld, but Pidgeon had +$1 max bid on me. The rest of the rankings were heavily influenced by this blueprint.

#2 – Password is Taco (5/3) – Jake waited patiently and struck just as the RB’s started wearing thin. He snagged 2 of the top PPR RB’s of the last 3 years in Rice and McCoy. Andre Brown is a borderline starting RB because of his timeshare with Wilson. He could both lose/gain touches with Wilson’s breakout/bust. Bryant, Garcon and Hilton make up a great WR core albeit with some injury risk. I love Hilton this year and if the preseason in any indication of what is to come, he is going to be a star. Jake didn’t spend on a TE and made sure he had a couple to plug and play. Getting Stafford at $16 was still quite the value. His TD’s will surely rise this year (and I don’t mean a boob-job).

#3 – Rafi (6/3) – quite possibly the highest ranking Draper has ever received. This high of a ranking isn’t quite deserving as Draper’s recent history shows he’s just a terrible manager. If Chris Davis wasn’t juicing he’d be in rough shape in GM 2012. $30 was spent on the 2 runnings QB’s. I’m highly against this strategy, because if you can’t trade one of these QB’s then it’s a waste of money. Fortunately he got a value all-star core of WR’s in Bowe, Nelson and Smith who should all have WR2-WR3 years. Lance Moore gets you solid production week to week without filling up the stat sheet. Chris Givens is my favorite breakout WR this year and Vincent Brown is a popular sleeper. Steven Ridley should have another solid year in one of the league’s best offenses and he’s got Miller and Wilson waiting to breakout. Gronkowski was purchased at quite the value and he’s got Tony G just in case things don’t work with the 1-armed dancing man. Looks like Pidgeon on the dance floor. Of course Draper’s team could completely fall apart if Nelson stays hurt and Bowe becomes complacent after getting paid. I’ll surely kick myself in the ass if he’s team sucks again. RAFI BOMB!

#4 – Schrute Farm Beets Andre Nowzik (6/4) – yes Jack, you still have to change your name being the reigning Sack-O champion. Fortunately, bearing luck only Andre could come upon, you won’t be finishing last for a 3rd straight year. Kaepernick at $15 was another decent value. He has as much upside as any non-elite QB. His RB’s are plentiful, solid but unproven. Lacy has looked fantastic this preseason and could be a steal if he gets the carries. Murray oozes with talent but obviously can’t stay healthy. Bell and Vereen are two sleepers that will be great flex plays each week. Megatron and Amendola (oh, how I love you) make up a top notch 1-2 combo at WR. The sky is the limit for a healthy Amendola. Jack stole Cameron from me alleviating the value in him, but he still should reap the reward of a solid season. I wouldn’t put it past Jack to fuck this up, but it looks like he’s secured a top 6 spot this year. Take a load off, Andre.

#5 – Jay Cutless Supreme (4/4) – Janda’s RB2 kept from from the top spot. Not quite sure how it dropped him to #5 but they are my rankings and I’m sticking to them. Since there is no league theme to tie to this analysis, here’s a picture of a Cutlass Supreme. Janda landed 4 solid WR’s including the almighty PPR beast: Brandon Marshall. I did everything in my power to bid him up on his Bears, but he wouldn’t budge. That dude has issues. Luck at $5 was a great buy. I wish I hadn’t grabbed Wilson for $7 after seeing that. I don’t see Hillman or Ball getting significant carries this year, you have to think they will end up splitting carries when healthy. Mendenhall hasn’t definitely lost a step, but he enters the season as the starter. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

#6 – I’m Goin To Tha U (5/2) – how I felt when Strach started a bidding war for Sproles. Definitely my best hyperlink so far. Sproles is being undervalued this year due to his regression last year. That was due to injury and the loss of Sean Payton. He’s back and he’s going to go nuts on opposing defenses. You know the league is getting good when you look at 5-6 teams and think “that’s the best team”. I don’t think there is a clear best team, but Strach is definitely pushing it. I would say he has 4 top-25 picks in a PPR league: Richardson, Graham, Cobb and Sproles. Ryan isn’t too far past them with his recent outbreak. I love Woodhead as a PPR sleeper this year. Greg Jennings value is cloudier than Snoop Dogg’s car. If Ponder’s limp arm can get him the ball enough, he could still push 1,000 yards. The same goes for talented rookie Cordarrelle Patterson.

#7 – The Franchise (5/1) – Taube’s really earning the name finishing in the top half of every league I’ve ever played in with him. Executing the Studs & Duds strategy to a T, Taube secured 3 of the top 10 RB’s along with Mr. Catch Anything That Falls. I think Fitz is going to bounce back in a big way after last year’s disappointment. It’s very hard to judge this strategy as it is predicated on $1 player’s breaking out, which is the hardest thing to predict. I’ve stayed away from Tavon because I fear the hype won’t be worth the results. Taube executed ¾ of my Blueprint but I don’t think the WR’s will be able to carry his team to a win every week. The inconsistency will ultimately lose him a few weeks here and there. I’m sure Taube will continue to be a Waiver Wire bully spending on $100 on every possible breakout he sees. What’s $10 when you’re competing for hundreds? Take notes ya’ll. And I can say ya’ll now because I live in Texas. BTTJ’s answer is what makes him awesome.

#8 – Vinegar Strokes (5/2) – Dan has some serious talent on his team along with some serious ‘blah’ players. We all know that Rodgers, Green, Gore and Lynch will have productive seasons and Stevie Johnson is about as consistent as it gets for a WR3. Greg Olsen was a great cheap option at TE who should put up similar numbers again this year. If defenses mattered, I’d note that he clearly has the best one out there, but they really don’t. At least not this year, fuck you Chicago. But guys like Williams, Hartline, Greene, Rice and Moore all can’t be trusted week to week. DeAngelo could return some value is Stewart remains injured, but if they are both healthy, neither will put up starting numbers. I love Golden Tate this year. Sanders has a great opportunity to breakout filling in the Mike Wallace void. If the Patriots want somebody, it usually means they have talent. Edleman could come of value with one Amendola injury – great snag at the end of the draft.

#9 – Danza Slap (5/2) – I just now learned what a Danza Slap is. Touché Roy. Despite drafting AP for 2/3 of his price last year, Colin still managed to be one of the few managers to not win a league with AP on his team. Going less heavy on studs and focusing on a balanced lineup, Roy built a pretty safe looking team. Take away bye weeks and you have yourself a top notch team. But with Turner the Burner’s best days behind him there’s a slim chance he makes any sort of impact this year. I understand the concept of handcuffing, but I don’t foresee Forsett having any value even if he takes over for an injured MJD. The lack of depth was the main reason for the #9 ranking.

#10 – Rodney Ruxin (4/5) – Pidgeon often thinks he is sneaky while being completely obvious. Evidence. I was going to relate his sneakiness to this draft when I realize he wasn’t being sneaky at all while failing to secure a good team. He’s just bad at fantasy sports now. Back in the day, you could count on Pidgeon to finish among the top half of the league in almost every league. The days when only 2-3 managers consistently checked their teams; him being one of them. Now, the information age has taken us all by storm, and suddenly managers everywhere can see all of the information that us “go-hards” used to look up in our spare time. By now you know that this is not just an excuse for Pidgeon, it is a fact of fantasy life. The only logical explanation is that he doesn’t know his sports as well as the rest of us. Sounds more like Andre than Ruxin. He also doesn’t know when he is being inappropriate. Again, more like Andre. Going against BP#1 he snagged the likely #1 QB this year in Brees. I can’t really say that was a bad move, but I would highly advice against drafting the glass-brothers: Ivory and Mathews. In an attempt to screw over Taube, Pidgeon grabbed Romo to backup Brees just in case Brees isn’t on pace for 5,000 yards. The only upside to Pidgeon’s team is his upside. His mark of 5 high-upside players topped the league. Gordon, Sudfeld, Broyles, Pierce and Tate all qualified in my book. He’s 1 or 2 injuries away from having a crazy-good RB core. With Foster’s health in question, Tate could shape up to be a value pick. An injury to Ray Rice would likely put Pierce in the top 10 RB’s. The stars would have to align for both of these guys breaking the top 10 this year. I think Sudfeld plays a solid role in the NE offense and could still hold some value once Gronk returns. I’ll never count him out of a league, but I love to make him face an uphill battle. Oh yeah, Nicks for $31? “Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice…”

#11 – Carson (4/3) – Arian Foster. $64 on a player who has barely practiced this preseason, is getting shots in his back and has pain emanating down his legs from this mysterious back issue. But Carson has been known for taking risks in the past. And they usually pay off. His other RB is a high risk/high reward player in CJ2Knomore. The Titans brought one of the slowest backs in league history in for short yardage and goal line situations. This could bring down CJ’s touchdown totals and his yardage has been declining over the past few years. Mark executed BP#1 to a T grabbing his guy Eli for cheap. Outside of his risky RB’s, Mark grabbed some questionable WR’s as well. I love D-Thomas, but the addition of Welker has everyone wondering how the targets will be allocated this year. Torrey Smith is a boom or bust option week in and week out. To my knowledge, I still don’t think he can run a full route tree. Kenny Britt is talented as hell but was limited by injuries last year and has a very shaky QB situation. Randle could be quite the value if banana fingers can’t stay healthy. Mark’s not yet prepared for Foster to be out week 1 which doesn’t bode well for his start. I’ll surely eat my words and apologize if Carson manages to win his 4th title in 5 years, but I don’t see it happening. No hyperlinks?!? Ah, there we go. And this. If you don’t find these funny, it’s most likely because it’s an inside joke. I’m killing it out here!

The NFL and ESPN will likely see their highest rating of the year for Monday Night Football this week. Both teams in this heavyweight showdown are currently riding six-game winning streaks, making their case for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both teams come into this game with extremely positive point differentials. New England has the highest in the league at +170 while the Texans are 2nd at +130. Only two other teams carry a positive differential greater than 100 (49ers and Broncos both +118). Needless to say, these are two of the elite teams in the NFL, and this game could quite possibly be the AFC Championship matchup come January.

Houston came into this season with lofty expectations to morph this relatively new franchise into a yearly contender. After starting 2011 at 10-3, the Texans lost their final three games to finish 10-6, clinching the AFC South in the process. Matt Schaub was lost in week 10 to a foot injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season. Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates filled in admirably, but the loss of Schaub proved too much for the Texans to handle. Yates threw 3 interceptions in the conference semifinal against the Ravens while the Texans fell 20-13.

This year’s Texans, led by Schaub and Arian Foster, came out of the gates with a vengeance. They currently sit at 11-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Houston boasts the 2nd ranked rushing defense and the 6th ranked rushing offense. This is a power run team with a more than serviceable quarterback, who has an elite wide receiver in Andre Johnson at his disposal. Owen Daniels has been greatly improved this year, giving Schaub a trustworthy option over the middle. Foster continues to prove that he is one of the top backs in the league, leading all rushers in carries and touchdowns. Although he has 13 touchdowns in 12 games, the most amazing statistic of Foster’s season is that he has lost only one fumble in 280 carries.

New England came into this season just like any other in the past ten years. Expectations are sky-high and failure isn’t a consideration. After starting the year 1-2, you can bet panic started to set in with the fans in the Northeast. The Patriots proceeded to win eight of their next nine games; all but three by a hefty margin. Brady and McDaniels have put together four 2007-like performances putting up scoring totals of 45, 49, 52 and 59. With 25 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, Tom is continuing to flourish in Belichick’s system. The scariest part of the Patriots offense this year is the emergence of a running game.

Steven Ridley, the second year running back out of LSU, has taken advantage of every opportunity handed to him this year. In his rookie season Ridley managed 5.1 ypc on limited touches. Coming into the season, he was given the reigns as the starter and exploded for 125 yards on 21 carries in his first game in Tennessee. He never looked back and has already surpassed 1,000 yards on the season, adding in 9 rushing touchdowns for good measure.

In games of this magnitude, there are bound to be exciting matchups to watch. Good teams are often judged based on their ability to convert, or get a stop, on third-downs. Houston’s defense holds the lowest third-down conversion rate in the NFL. Not surprisingly, New England has the league’s top third-down offense. Voila – a match made in Roger Goodell’s heaven. Another intriguing matchup is the Patriots 9th ranked rushing defense against Arian Foster. Behind Houston’s zone-blocking scheme, Foster hits holes decisively and has breakaway straight-line speed. He’s constantly falling forward and punishing defenders that get in his way. Houston will be looking to establish the ground game early and often, while the Patriots do everything in their power to minimize his yards per carry.

Week 13 Results: 1-2

Season [ATS]: 12-11

Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB, HOU, BAL, DEN, CLE and CAR. I actually changed my pick at the last minute last week from Carolina to Chicago. Needless to say, neither team pulled out the win, so I am officially out of my pool now. Only 5 remain – oh so close! I like the Colts, Steelers and Buccaneers this week. Take one of those if you have them still.

Colts -5

Luck’s TD:INT ratio splits are 9:3 at home vs. 8:13 away. Last week he threw 4 TD’s in Detroit further boosting that stat. The kid is good; everybody knows that. But he plays extremely well in the comfort of Indy, with his fans, and the dome atmosphere. The Titans have been in shambles all year and have showed no signs of turning it on at this point. I think this is a high scoring game, where luck goes over 300 yards yet again and Vic Ballard has his true breakout game as the lone starting RB. Wayne, Avery & Hilton are turning out to be quite the receiving core for Luck.

Bears -2.5

This isn’t just another divisional game for Chicago. They are in a dead heat with Green Bay for 1st place in the NFC North. Minnesota is emotionally devastated by the placing of Percy Harvin on IR. Peterson is the only thing keeping them afloat. I have no doubts that Alien Peterson will get his, but Ponder and his “receiving” core are pitiful. The Vikings are 5-1 at home (1-5 away) but they haven’t beaten a good team since September. Marshall breaks 100 yards yet again and the Bears win by double digits.

Falcons -3

Forget who’s playing here. Look at the records. 11-1 vs. 3-9 – how do you get a 3 point spread? I live in Charlotte and I can assure you there is no home-field advantage in terms of their crowd. Sure, it’s a division matchup so the Panthers may come out to play, but they just lost to the Chiefs. The Chiefs! Don’t get me wrong, the Falcons are as sketchy as an 11-1 team gets, but after last week, I don’t think the Panthers have what it takes to win games right now. LaFell is looking doubtfull which kills their passing attack, which has improved in parallel with LaFell’s emergence. At worst, I see this game pushing. Don’t be afraid to buy the ½ point if you get it at 3½.

Quick Notes: The total in the Saints @ Giants is 53 – take the under now. If Jonathan Joseph doesn’t suit up for the Texans, I like the Patriots -3 at home. I like the Cardinals +10 which seems to be a trap game (now that the almight Skelton is back) and the over which is currently at 35 points. The Seahawks are losing corners left and right, and the Cardinals still have that guy names Larry.

Bonus Pick: I use Bovada.lv to place my bets and they offer attractive teasers each week. I have hit three out of four 4-game teasers the past 4 weeks (tweet @ me for proof). This week, my teaser is +6pts (+265) with Bears -3, Colts -5, 49ers -10 and Seahawks -10 giving you final lines of CHI +3, IND +1, SF -4 and SEA -4. A 6.5 point teaser pays out +240 and the 7 point pays out +200

          Each and every year, the NFC East is touted as one of the most talented and toughest conferences in the NFL. And each and every year at least one team disappoints. This year every team except 2011’s last place Redskins have disappointed us in one way or another. Three of the four teams currently sit under .500, and the last place Eagles have been battling the Tebow-less Jets for biggest bust of the year. The Cowboys have under-performed yet again, managing only five wins with a plethora of talent on the roster. This leaves us with our week 13 matchup: the New York (Football) Giants vs. the Washington Redskins.

          The Giants have had a rollercoaster of a year thus far and who knows if the largest drop has been hit yet. To say they have disappointed may be a reach, but it was their recent stretch of poor performances that got fans and analysts concerned. Eli went through a dead-arm phase and lost sight of the end zone, failing to record a passing touchdown in three straight games, while tossing 4 interceptions. But last week Eli showed his Manning heritage by throwing for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in a turnover free blowout of the Packers. Hakeem Nicks has proclaimed himself the healthiest he has been all year which only bodes well for the football Giants.

          The Redskins have been a pleasant surprise in the NFC East after finishing 5-11 last year. Robert Griffin III has exceeded his first year expectations, instantly becoming one of the most electric players in the NFL. In his first year, he has brought the Redskins to their ’11 win total of five and has encountered a couple of close losses. After 12 games, “RG3” holds a 4:1 TD:INT ratio (16:4) and is completing 67% of his passes, good for 4th in the league. But RG3’s hype came from what he can do on the ground. Boasting a 4.41 40-yard dash time, this former track star was expected to make things happen scrambling out of the pocket. He’s done so by rushing for 642 yards (6.4 ypc) and 6 touchdowns, good for 21st in the NFL. Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner have fewer yards than Griffin, just to name a few.

          What’s at stake in this game? Although the Giants are sitting at 7-3, they still have a lot to prove to their fans, the league and most importantly themselves. Eli needs to come out and have another strong outing and David Wilson needs to step up in Andre Brown’s absence. A broken leg will sideline him for the rest of the regular season, but a return in the Super Bowl could be a possibility. Victor Cruz needs to get over his case of the drops, which he has had off and on this entire season, totaling 9 so far. The Redskins are still very much in the wild card hunt at 5-6 but will need a win against NY or Baltimore to keep the dream alive. The Skins play Cleveland and Philadelphia in weeks 15 and 16, which should be easy wins for a playoff team. The Redskins only have two wins at home compared to three losses and losing twice to a divisional rival can be heartbreaking to fans. This matchup is the definition of a ‘make-or-break’ game for Washington.

          The keys to this game are simple. Washington’s 31st ranked pass defense needs to step up against two great wide receivers and capitalize on their chances to create turnovers. With Bradshaw’s counterpart out, the Giants will likely throw the ball more to account for Brown’s carries. Wilson has had fumbling issues his whole career so you can bet that Washington will be throwing their fists at the ball each carry he gets. RG3 needs to be cognizant of the ferocious pass-rush he is about to endure and make things happen with his feet. Pierre Garcon’s health will be a key factor in boosting the Redskins passing game. Garcon appeared healthy last week but has claimed he won’t be 100% until the offseason.

Week 11 Results: 2-1

Week 12 Results: Too much Turkey

Season [ATS]: 11-9

Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB, HOU, BAL, DEN and CLE respectively each week. This week I’m going with Carolina. Kansas City is a mess and Carolina is better than their record suggests.

Panthers -3

My survivor pick of the week. Cam looked great last week against the Eagles. Ok, so that last sentence has very little meaning. But the Chiefs aren’t any better than the Eagles. Arrowhead stadium used to be a tough place to play, but now the Chiefs are 1-10 with little to no hope of winning another game. With a line this small you have to take the hot team over a one-win team. Another stat to ease your conscious: Carolina is 4-1 ATS away from home.

Jaguars +6

Putting aside the fact that the Jags are 100x better with Henne over Gabbert, the Jags are surprisingly 5-0 ATS as away dogs this year. If you’ve ever seen the Jags stadium during home games you can understand why they play much better in other team’s stadiums. Six points in way too much to give in a game between two bad teams whose seasons are over.

Texans -5

Houston is a much better team than Tennessee – plain and simple. There hasn’t been a game this year where they haven’t come to play. They beat the Titans by 24 on their home field and I don’t expect this game to be much closer. The line won’t stay this small so jump on it while you can. Houston is out to prove something this year and they won’t let a division rival hand them their 2nd loss. The return of Ben Tate could help alleviate some of the pressure of Foster as well, allowing the Texans to dominate the game on the ground.

Thanksgiving week in the NFL marks a time where players, coaches and fans give thanks to their family, friends and the playoff race. At this point in the season, the AFC has much more disparity than the NFC. Therefore, the playoff and wildcard races are much more intriguing in the NFC. This week, the 9-1 Falcons will visit the 6-4 Buccaneers for a division rivalry game. Other than the Texans, there aren’t any hotter teams in the NFL than these two NFC South contenders. The Buccaneers will look to keep their four-game winning streak alive as the Falcons attempt to start a new streak of their own.

Four weeks into the season the NFC South had a combined record of 6-10, with Atlanta holding four of those wins. The Panthers and Buccaneers were 1-3 and the Saints were a surprising 0-4. Since then, the teams are a combined 16-8 (15-3 excluding Carolina). Outside of the Panthers’ struggles, the division is living up to the preseason expectations. Matt Ryan, despite the five-interception game last week, is playing the role of an MVP quarterback. Josh Freeman is proving that his sophomore slump was just that and nothing more (or less). And Drew Brees is, well, Drew Brees. He’s consistently putting the team on his back, utilizing whoever he has on the field, moving the ball with ease. In the past few weeks the Saints have found their running game, and their defense is looking better than the worst NFL defense ever - if that’s possible.

What does this all mean for the ramifications of the game this Sunday? Not only do the Buccaneers need a win to stay in the divisional race; they need a win to secure a chance at a wild card spot. New Orleans is 5-1 in their last six games and we can safely assume they are not going away. Green Bay and Chicago are locked up at 7-3 atop the NFC North and Minnesota is hot on their tail at 6-4. Another team that sits at 6-4 is the Seattle Seahawks, who are taking the term “home-field advantage” to a whole new level. Excluding the Cowboys, for reasons recognized by all, there are five teams, including Tampa Bay, fighting for the two wild card spots.

Each team’s strengths play into their opponent’s weaknesses. This makes for an intriguing matchup. The Buccaneers have excelled in the running game, especially of late, as rookie Doug Martin is proving to be a feature back in the NFL. The Buccaneers come into this game with the 1st ranked rushing defense in the league going against the 28th ranked rushing offense, led by an aging veteran in Michael Turner, who seems to be wearing down by each down he plays. On the contrary, the Falcons boast the 3rd best passing offense in the league going against the league’s worst passing defense, giving up 312 yards per contest.

This game has all the makings of a shootout between two of the league’s best young quarterbacks. Now with Vincent Jackson at his disposal, Freeman has a deep-threat to stretch the field and open up the middle for Mike Williams, who coincided with Freeman in a sophomore slump. Matt Ryan has been electric for most of the year and much of that has to do with his two stud receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Jones has been sidelined with a bad ankle and is questionable for the game this Sunday. If Jones does end up playing, you can lock him into a limited snap count and usage mainly as a decoy.

The NFL has scheduled a plethora of meaningful games this week. Some games are important for pride, some for standings and some just for hope (See, Panthers vs. Eagles and Titans vs. Jaguars). The Falcons vs. Buccaneers has ramifications on many levels and shouldn’t be neglected by NFL viewers. Look for the Bucs to come out with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.

Week 10 Results: 0-3 (said really fast hoping no one notices)

Season [ATS]: 9-8

Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB, HOU and BAL respectively each week. This week I’m riding the ageless Peyton Manning and the Broncos over the Chargers.

Baltimore -3.5

Leftwich is 0-6 as a starter dating back to October of 2008. Ouch. The guy has a cannon for an arm. However, his delivery looks like he’s throwing a cannon ball. Antonio Brown will be sitting out this game leaving only Mike Wallace to stretch the field. The Ravens know this and should be gameplanning against the deep ball. I’m confident Harbough will do the right thing and force Leftwich to get the ball out quickly (using that term loosely).

New Orleans -4.5

There aren’t many teams hotter than Naw’leens right now. There’s a lot of buzz around Carson Palmer right now, especially in the fantasy world. That buzz should stay in the fantasy world. The Raiders, as a whole, are not a good football team. They have allowed 97 points in their last 2 games. Let that sink in. Now they go against a top 3 offense of the last 5 years. The Saints now have their running game going which opens up the passing game even more. Palmer has to come crashing back to life sooner or later, and Heyward-Bey has a sore hammy. I like NO to win this by at least 10.

Tampa Bay -1.5

The Bucs are on FIRE. There isn’t much to say here. A much improved team that is clicking on all cylinders vs. a team in distress searching for their identity. Yes, it’s a divisional game in Carolina, but -1.5 is basically a pick’em. I love Freeman and Martin in this game.

Quick Notes: My quick notes last week were much more successful going 3-0 recommending the Texans, Cowboys and Buccaneers. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS compared to the Chargers 1-4 recently. This is a rivalry game and I like the Chargers +7.5. A recent news broadcast has informed the country that the Jets are awful. Go with the Rams – feed Amendola! It’s always a good idea to go against the Chiefs. The Bengals are getting a FG right now.

Week 9 Results: 3-1

Season [ATS]: 9-5

Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN, GB and HOU respectively each week. This week I’m locking in Baltimore against the Raiders. Safe players may want to go with New England coming off a bye week. Baltimore has a tough schedule the rest of the way and I don’t want to miss out on them this year.

Jets +6

The Jets are coming off a bye. The Jets have been nothing short of bi-polar this year. They’ve hung in games with the Texans and the Patriots, and they’ve been blown out by the 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers. They also blew out the 6-3 Colts that everyone loves right now. So, which NY team will show up? I repeat: the Jets are coming off a bye. Rex Ryan’s job is on the line. Being defensive minded, you can guarantee he will try to stop two things: Marshawn Lynch and the deep ball. Those two things are all that Seattle has. Wilson throws a great one, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a quick-slant-pre-snap-read kind of guy yet. He’s made a killing off of long balls to Tate and Rice. DRC should take Rice out of the equation and forcing Wilson to dink-and-dunk should slow the Seahawks down. Even if they pull the win out at home (as they usually do) the Jets will keep the game a barnburner.

Detroit -2

Have you seen Minnesota lately? They are falling apart. Well, that AP guy is still decent. But Ponder looks like he's been taking pointers from Blaine Gabbert circa '11 the way he’s been slinging the ball. With Harvin looking doubtful for the game, you need to pounce on this now. I’m wasting time just writing about it. The Lions have assembled a running game again and Stafford is starting to throw the ball normally again. After failing to cover the first 4 games of the year, the Lions have covered their last 4. This clearly shows the public perception failing to accurately judge the Lions’ value. Ride it while it lasts; they will soon be given more points to cover each game.

Steelers -11.5

The Chiefs are 1-7 this year and 2-5 ATS. Of those seven losses, six of them have been by double digits. Exclude the Oakland game where they only lost by 10, they have lost by 16+ in five out of seven. They are bad. Anytime you give an NFL team double digits points, you have good reason to doubt the bet. I understand. But re-read those statistics. Kansas City gives up 30 points per game. Try and convince yourself that the Steelers, with Ben playing at an elite level and Redman/Dwyer running all over teams, won’t put up 30+ points. Then ask yourself: Can the Chiefs, who average 16 points per game, put up 20 points against a defense ranked #1 in the league against the pass? Again, giving double digits to any team in the NFL comes with risk. I believe the risk here is minimized beyond belief.

Week 9 Results: 3-1

Season [ATS]: 9-5

LOSS. The Redskins (-3) truly fooled me this week. I underestimated the power of the Panthers defense. They kept RG3 in check throughout the game, not allowing him to break free for large gains. The Redskins receivers couldn’t pry themselves away from Carolina’s “suffocating” defense, and without a true deep threat, the Skins just can’t stretch the field. Cam played turnover free football and showed that the Panthers aren’t as bad as their record suggests.

WIN. The Steelers (+3.5) benefitted from Eli’s cold streak and made this bet a wide open layup. Redman proved that the Steelers O-line is responsible for a lot of the running game’s resurgence as he exploded for 100+ yards. With Ben playing the best football of his career, the Steelers will be extremely hard to stop if their running game continues to pound opponents into the ground. It may just be me but it sure looks like the old-time Steeler mentality is coming back.

WIN. Tampa Bay (+1) stayed hot Sunday rolling over the Raiders behind Doug Martin’s ROY-like performance. The final score didn’t do the game justice. It was a blowout for most of the game and the Raiders managed 3 TD’s in garbage time, thanks to LeGarrette Blount, who proved to the coaches that he should stay on the bench with his 4th quarter fumble. There aren’t many quarterbacks hotter than Josh Freeman right now. In his last four games, Freeman has averaged 314 yards per game along with a 11:1 TD:INT ratio. I’ll be watching their line closely against the Chargers – if it falls below 3, grab it!

WIN. Seattle (-4) showed why they are so dominant at home. Despite the efforts of Peterson, the Seahawks were able to control this game throughout. Ponder is in a downward spiral and could only manage 69 yards on 11 completions against Seattle’s defense. Lynch looked unstoppable, constantly carrying defenders on his back, which has become second nature to him. Russell Wilson was excellent as well tossing 3 TDs.

The Panthers came into Washington Sunday afternoon on a five-game losing streak. At 1-6, their season was spiraling downhill and panic was setting in. Their five-game skid included losses to the Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys and Bears. That’s no easy schedule for any team, let alone one still in rebuilding mode. With the media drilling home Newton vs. Griffin III, the balloon of pressure in Carolina was on the brink of bursting.

In comes Armanti Edwards. Who?!? That’s right, Carolina’s heavily scrutinized 3rd round draft pick in 2010. As a rookie, the Appalachian State project barely saw the field. Last year, he was delegated to return duties, in which he subsequently flopped averaging only 5.5 yards per punt return. Edwards sparked the third and final touchdown drive with an 82 yard catch and run down the sideline. With this catch being his second of the season/career, I wouldn’t expect Edwards to be heard from again this year, and at this point, that may be just fine with the Panthers.

Unfortunately for the media, the quarterback battle was far from the deciding factor in this game. Neither turned the ball over, but Cam did something RG3 couldn’t manage to do: score. Cam’s touchdown pass was a beautiful back-shoulder jump-ball in the endzone to Steve Smith, who recorded his first TD catch of the year. Yes, the year. The score came with 0:57 left in the half to give the Panthers a 14-3 edge at the halfway point. Newton also scored on a goal line rush from the 1 yard line. The Redskins offense averaged 26.6 points/game coming into the matchup and with the Panthers scoring only 21 points, the other side of the ball needed to step up.

The Panthers defense was indeed the deciding factor in the game. Looking at the team statistics - total yards, number of possessions and turnovers remained even. The Skins controlled the time of possession (35:20 to 24:40) and the Panthers managed one drive of 10+ plays while the Redskins had four. But when stops needed to be made, Carolina’s defense was ready. The defense held the Skins to a 20% third-down conversion rate (3-15). Carolina’s defense was even better in the redzone, allowing the Skins to score only once in three attempts, including a 4th-and-goal stand. RG3 could never break free for that long run and was held to short gains after watching his receivers fail to break free from coverage. Evan Royster, not Alfred Morris, was the only Skin to find the endzone, inevitably upsetting fantasy owners across the globe.

After this win, Cam and the Cats will be looking to build on their new found momentum. They return to Charlotte next week to face two more difficult opponents: Denver and Tampa Bay. These games will be Cam’s opportunity to show his team and league what kind of quarterback and person he is. If he can lead his team to a couple more victories, he will regain the exciting-young-running-quarterback crown. If he flops (and frowns), RG3’s statement, asking to be compared to Rodgers instead of Cam, may be validated.

Last Week: 1-2

Season: 6-4

A bear trap. That’s what Week 9 looks like. There are 5 road favorites, all with spreads between 2.5-3.5 points. Detroit and Chicago look very enticing, but I won’t be recommending either.

Survivor Pick: To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ, MIN and GB respectively each week. This week I’m playing it safe again with the Texans. I also like Seattle at home if you’re daring.

Washington -3

The Redskins are coming off a 15-point loss to the Steelers on the road. The game had no turnovers and only 7 punts total. The Redskins just failed to put the ball in the endzone on a couple of nice drives. The Panthers took a lead into the 4th quarter against the Bears and allowed them to drive down the field for a win. Cam has been nothing short of a disappointment this year, and though the Redskins secondary is laughable, Cam doesn’t have anyone other than Steve Smith to throw to, and LaFell is out with a concussion. The Skins are only 1-2 at home with losses to the Bengals and Falcons. They’ve played a tough schedule so far and RG3 has led them to a 3-5 record. He makes it 4-5 this week.

Pittsburgh +3.5

I can’t believe that this line will stay larger than a field goal but grab it while you can. Big Ben and the Black & Yellow are still underrated in the public’s perception (possibly due to their poor attire last week). Ben is slinging the ball better than he has in his entire career. But Eli’s no slouch either. I think this game remains competitive throughout. The Giants haven’t blown any team out (excluding the Panthers on TNF). They just aren’t that type of team this year. The pass rush hasn’t been as elite as it has in the past and the secondary is 26th overall against the pass. If Dwyer suits up for his 3rd straight start, look for him to open up the passing game for Ben, Brown and Wallace. Even if the Giants pull it off, I see it being by a field goal. Look at it this way: if the Giants are up 10 going into the 4th, Big Ben will surely lead the Steelers to a garbage time TD making it a 3 point game. Sure looks like a lock to me.

Tampa Bay +1

Tampa Bay has been on fire lately. Their offense is clicking both on the ground and through the air. For those of you who like statistics, the Bucs are 3-0 as away dogs and the Raiders are 0-2 as home favorites. The Raiders just barely snuck by the Jags at home and the Buccos beat the Vikings by 19 away from home. It feels like each team is trending in different directions. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game. Couple that with McFadden’s struggles and the Raiders are relying on Carson Palmer to take this game over. I’d much rather put my money on the improving young-gun Josh Freeman.

Seattle -4

Anyone notice Seattle’s road struggles? If so, you’ve noticed how good they are at home. Inside the dome in front of a sold-out crowd allows them to play ball freely. Ponder has shown his true colors lately. He’s still a young quarterback that makes mistakes. Sure, AP will get his yards on the ground, but they will have to abandon it eventually after Seattle puts some early points on the board. Minnesota just lost their top CB Chris Cook which should make it easier for Wilson to stretch the field. His deep ball has been a thing of beauty this year.

Anybody who has created a power ranking before knows the difficulties the process entails. Identifying balance, strengths and weaknesses is solely based on projections in which playing time of the players is not guaranteed. Therefore, unlike football and baseball, the sports in which I feel the most comfortable about from a fantasy perspective, these ranks will be twisted more towards humor than actual team prestige. To those who haven’t experienced a ranking before, please do not take them to heart in any way. I don’t think you’re a poor manager because I ranked you near the bottom (or at least I’m not directly saying that). These ranks are based on my opinions and projections, as well as personal sleepers, busts and biases.

Warning: nonsensical babbling may occur.

#1 – Yoshikawas – if Josh’s profile account would allow you to see his team name for the 67 teams he’s managed, I’d bet the bank that 95% of them had the team name ‘Yoshikawas’. Of course that has nothing to do with his power ranking; his team is stacked. Lillard in 8-cat leagues should be a stud. Durant, Cousins, Mathews, Pekovic and Leonard are all guys I love this year. I think the last 4 are severely undervalued. In fact, before my last pick panic attack, I was saving my $8 to get Leonard. Then my heart rate increased as the nomination timer neared 0:00, I was forced to nominate Crawford, who the league gladly gave to me. Tristan Thompson is poised for a mini-breakout this year – I can see him nearing a double-double per game average. If Nate Robinson can’t put up the assists, his team will pretty much punt those each week, but the rest of the lineup provides across the rest of the board.

#2 – Nuthin But Net – swish! Mike landed a great looking balanced lineup led by Aldridge, Dragic and Monroe. Ilyasova was a stud last year once he got the minutes he deserved. He’s right up there at the top of my sleeper list. This ranking will be justified or nullified by  Andrew the Paussie Bogut. That’s Australian Pussy. When he’s on the court, he has as much value as any other center in the league, averaging a double-double with upwards of 3 BPG. Unfortunately, he’s never stayed healthy and isn’t already this year. Ginobili should see his minutes decrease with the emergence of Kahwi Leonard, but for $15 he should still provide good consistent value. I love Valanciunas for $1 to end the draft. I can’t wait to see that kid play. [Great article here.]

#3 – Red Hot Curry – my #1 rank last year. There’s just something about Indian food that tickles my taste buds. Any team that gets a value on [red hot] Stephen Curry and the Glass Ankle gets an immediate bump on my list. See what I did there? See what he did there? Very punny. I love Stephen Curry. He is a top 5 talent when healthy. For $27, I’ll take that all day. What I don’t love, is the inherent risk it brings. So I look past it; even Frank Gore stayed healthy for all 16 games last year. Tommy filled his team with 5 solid players and then went for $1 picks. His studs include: Batum (Love), Horford (Solid), Ibaka (Congratulations, you’ve won the blocks category!), and Gay (Not gay). Having PTS, REB, and BLKS locked up, he chose to fill his bench with PGs who have either great potential in a backup role, or starters like Chalmers and Hinrich who will just facilitate while others do the work for them.

#4 – Waiting For Dion – immediate bump for grabbing the player in your team name. I guess I should have seen that coming from an avid Cuse fan. Go ahead, pick up Fab Melo. After getting screwed by his 2003 PC, spending $20 more on Love than anyone else wanted to, Jake finished out the draft nicely. Looking through his lineup, I see that just about every player was undervalued in terms of their draft price. The team desperately lacks PGs, but guys like Iguodala and Evans add some assists from the SG position. There is also a void in the 3PM category, but PTS, REB and BLK should be a lock. Assuming Love only misses 12-16 games, Jake will be in great shape for December on.

#5 – No Hope – I hope I’m close here. This ranking is heavily based off manager experience rather than my love for his team. Clearly, his FT% will be atrocious if Jordan, McGee and Favors get to the line more than 20-30 times per week. The rest of the team looks rock solid at every position and in every category. Drafting LeBron in an auction is a leap of faith. You automatically lose nearly half your budget. But for the best player in the league, and possibly ever, I’d say it’s worth it. The King should give Nathan hope of winning this league, as his supporting cast was filled in very nicely, even with the budget constraint. [Must-read Bill Simmons article]

#6 – Fredette About It – the 1st manager that knows Jimmer personally. Without a doubt I have the best team in the league. Would LeBron not say he’s the best player in the league? Hell, I’m sure morons like Kendrick Perkins and Kwame Brown would say they are the best players in the league. So why am I ranked at #6? I’ve learned that nothing good comes from ranking myself #1 (which I seemed to do after almost every draft, weird right?). It’s called draft-hubris. Accidents do happen, but I wouldn’t draft these players if I didn’t think they would be great. Kyrie Irving is a superstar in the making – on the court and in the fantasy world. Watch him explode to Top-10 status this year. I drafted Harden as a member of the Thunder and am now excited to see what he will do as a starter in Houston.

#7 – Jimmer Junkie – the 2nd manager who knows Jimmer personally. He often refers to himself as the Jimmer stopper. He coined this nickname for himself after he held Jimmer to 15-20 points, as a 4th grader, when Jimmer was a chubby little 3rd grader. Good job dude. Overall, I like Brian’s team but he went against one of the golden rules in fantasy basketball. Not drafting polar opposites. He did just that in attempt to negate Rondo’s FT% by grabbing lights out shooters in Thompson, Gallinari and Anderson. Bosh is a great free throw shooter for a big guy. I’m not sure he drafted in attempt to punt blocks, but he did a good job of it. He won’t be winning that category too often. The lack of assists troubles me as well. Of course, I ranked him 10th out of 12th last year, only to have him finish as the regular season champion, face-planting in the playoffs. As you will see, Brian will commend my rankings now and pick them apart in a month or two. This is part of the reason why I stressed so hard that these most likely will not be accurate. This was a poor explanation of his ranking. 

#8 – Helmut Boshenmann – WTF does that mean? I guess I won’t be making any jokes or references about his name; it’s completely flummoxed me. Yeah, flummoxed. Took 3 rounds of thesaurusing to find that one. “An oldie, but goodie”. That’s what the saying would be if I were to put a saying to each team’s roster. That doesn’t normally happen, you say? Pierce, Garnett, Parker, Duncan: the All-Stars of the early 2000’s. Still, at the values he got them at, they should do the trick. Eric Gordon is a huge injury risk, but he can put up top tier numbers when healthy. If Scola can step up and play big minutes behind Gortat, he could be a solid producer on a per-minute basis. Here’s to Blake staying healthy! I don’t know how many more years of highlight filled games we have left.

#9 – Swishin N Dishin – last year’s champion. I’m not quite sure where to place his team. I had him at 5th, then 6th, then 8th before I finally settled on 9th. Kevin Martin’s value could skyrocket with Harden out of the picture, but he’s never been an advocate of staying healthy. Gordon Hayward has the potential to breakout in a huge way, putting numbers up across the board. He’s like a young, non-foreign Andrei Kirilenko. Deron Williams is coming off a down year and a surgery, both are concerns for me. I’d much rather have Kyrie at $52 than Deron at $61. I guess that’s why I have Kyrie and not Deron. Hibbert is a solid C but lacks scoring and a ceiling. He should be the same old boring Hibbert this year. Speaking of morons, I love Jrue Holiday’s prospects and I believe he can really take a leap into the upper echelon this year. I’d like to be, but I’m not convinced that Lin will be that effective. I feel that his FG% may negatively impact the minor boost he gives in AST. If Gerald Green gets Grangers minutes once his leg falls off, I can see him providing great value as an utility player.

#10 - @ Top – the first casualty of laziness. In my frantic-five-minute-madness (the system in which I split the teams into good and bad) @ top was placed in my good team list. Then, as I went through writing, and swapping, and writing some more, I realized I hadn’t put him in the top half of the league as I planned. Laziness. I can’t go back and switch all the numbers now! Of course, this could just be an easy way for me to say he has a good team and a bad team. Either way I win. Ah, yes. I should do this more often. Plenty of PTS, REB and BLK to go around on this team. I love Manimal this year - he put up great per-minute numbers last year. He’s the hardest worker in the league. Sorry, Hansbrough, you’re a close #2. If Evan Turner can live up to the hype, he can provide great value at $5.

#11 – Beedo – the 3rd and final manager who knows Jimmer. I always hate on Beedo’s teams. Not sure why. Maybe because he hasn’t been in any of my leagues for the last 5 years and he’s the one who introduced me to fantasy sports in the first place. Yup, I’ll go with that. The main reasoning for this ranking is Dirk. Dirk’s injury opens up too big of a void in his team. I understand the “Stars and Scrubs” auction strategy, but I believe your stars have to play like stars the whole year. Not miss 3-6 weeks to begin the year. That being said, his team could really turn around come late December. Seeing Westbrook and Paul on the same team is scary. Brook Lopez at $9 was a steal. Somehow Yahoo managed to put him at $0 hiding him from his actual pre-rank. If his cheap buys work out, Beedo will be feeling high and mighty, but I don’t see it happening.

#12 – Memphis Huns – twins! The 1st successful Double-Gasol-Grab I’ve seen. I love me some Lawson being a Tar Heel fan. What I don’t love is paying for the hype Steve Nash brought on himself, from a fantasy standpoint, by moving to LA. $32 for a guy that probably won’t finish in the Top-10 at his own position. Now, I love Steve Nash, and envy him. But LA is running a Princeton style offense, where the PG is more of a pawn than a queen. I had to work a chess analogy in eventually. If that didn’t make sense, Nash is not going to be in a run ‘n gun offense like he was in Pheonix. He barely scores 10 ppg now and his defense is diminishing. He is much more valuable in 9-cat leagues as he does not turn the ball over very often. But in an 8-cat, I think this is the overpay of the draft. That alone made ranking this team easy as I knew I could put it near the bottom and justify it to myself. Like I have to…

#13 – Savages20 – another manager with the same name, over and over again. Not hating; it makes it easier for me. I do run 12+ leagues per year between all of the sports. Enough about me, why is this team 13th? I’ll tell you. The NBA doctor’s office contacted me after this draft and asked why a manger would put so many risky players on the same roster. True story. I said “I dunno”. It was a quick conversation. Kobe, Wade, Howard, Granger, Stoudemire, Camby… it looks like an emergency room/nursing home. Don’t get me wrong, this team healthy is up near the top of the list. But I highly doubt that 2/3 of these guys stay healthy all year. Kobe, Wade and Howard will all likely be rested as their megastar teams settle in before the playoffs. Granger only has one real knee; the other is about as useless as Marcus Lattimore’s. Too soon? I didn’t think it was possible to draft a bigger group of hospitalized ballers until I saw this team…

Week 8 of the 2012 NFL Season is in the books and the league has been fairly unpredictable. The Dolphins, Colts and Cardinals are all above .500 and the Saints have the same record as the Browns. Each division leader is clearly the best team in thei division and it seems as if they are all locked into playoff spots. Brady and the Pats continue to roll teams after starting out the year ‘slow’. The Falcons are 7-0 and they’ve looked great doing it. The Texans are the favorite in the AFC now that the Ravens’ defense has crumbled. And Peyton Manning is back.

Interesting Statistics: in the form of Matthew Berry’s 100 Facts

1.       The Patriots are averaging 441 Yds/G (33 more than the #2 Lions)

2.       The Saints are giving up 474 Yds/G (50 more than the #2 Bills)

3.       The NFL record for Yds/G given up is 424.5 by the Ravens in 1981

4.       CJ Spiller is averaging 7.2 ypc and is not the starter/workhorse

5.       Arian Foster is on pace for 384 carries, 1506 yards and 21 TDs

6.       He leads the league with 17 carries from inside the opponents 5

7.       Next closest is Jackie Battle with 10

8.       Ben Tate was considered a threat to Foster during draft day

9.       Tate has only received 2 of such carries (1 for a TD)

10.   Adrian Peterson is on pace for 1,550 yards

11.   AP was only 9 months removed from ACL surgery to start the year

12.   He is not human

13.   Reggie Wayne is on pace for 1,838 yards on 210 targets

14.   In 2011, Roddy White led the league with 181; Welker had 172

15.   Wayne has played in all 16 games since 2002-2003

16.   Before that, his rookie year, he played 13

17.   Tim Jennings has 6 interceptions in 7 games

18.   JJ Watt leads the league with 9.5 sacks through 7 games

19.   He has deflected 10 passes at the LOS, 3 have led to interceptions

Week 8 Results: 1-2

Season: 6-4

LOSS. The Eagles (-2.5) didn’t pan out the way I expected, although Vick managed to not turn the ball over for the first time this year. The Falcons offense, led by soon-to-be-MVP Matt Ryan, dissected the Eagles secondary in the first half. At this point, the Eagles are a lost cause. I’m done believing that they will have those big games they have become infamous for over the last 2 years. McCoy is the only player that comes to play each Sunday, but they still find a way to not give him the carries he deserves. Note to self: don’t bet against the Falcons until they lose.

LOSS. The Seahawks (+2.5) had the lead with five and a half minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. Stafford engineered a 16 play, 80 yard drive that culminated with a Titus Young TD. That’s just how the cookie crumbles. The Seahawks are now the most home-field biased team in the league; 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Keep that in mind next week in their matchup at home against the Vikings. That should be a great game to watch and most likely a pick ‘em line.

WIN. The Giants (-2) came away with the win largely due to the Cowboys’ 6 turnovers. Romo had his 2nd disaster of a game throwing 4 INT’s. He did end up with over 400 yards, using Witten as a Madden character, to the tune of 18 receptions. Had Dez Bryant been more aware of his hand placement, I would be looking at a goose-egg this week.

To those who chose Green Bay in their survivor leagues this week, we’re still alive. Next week is full of juicy survivor matchups. Check out my picks next week for my survivor pick and hopefully successful spread picks.

Last Week: 3-1

Season: 5-2

Coming off the biggest bye week of the year, plenty of teams have has an extra week to prepare for their opponents. In the NFL today, this gives a big advantage (assuming a good coaching staff). As usual I will give my survivor pick of the week. To date, I’ve used DET, CIN, DAL, ATL, PIT, NYJ and MIN respectively each week. This week I’m playing it safe and going with the Packers.

Eagles -2.5

Sure, Andy Reid is on his way out of Philadelphia. He’s also 13-0 coming off of a bye week. For some reason, I like these odds. A FG for the Eagles as the clock runs down wins this game for the Eagles. I’m usually not a fan of these stats; however, each Head Coach has been with their respective team for a while: the Eagles are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Falcons. As seen in years past, remaining undefeated is no easy tasks. Starting the season 7-0 is no easy task. I love the Falcons and I think they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but I think Vick keeps the TO’s under 3 and the Eagles take the game by a touchdown.

Seahawks +2.5

At what point in the season can we call the Lions and Stafford a bust? I’m still holding onto hope that Stafford will turn this year around, but only because I have him on multiple fantasy teams. Realistically, watching him play is brutal. He looks like Jay Cutler circa 2010 when he was sacked 52 times. He’s afraid – throwing off his back leg and side-arming quick throws behind his intended target. Seattle, on the other hand, still isn’t getting the respect they deserve. They have beaten Green Bay, New England and Dallas this year. I’m not worried about the Lions offense, even if they break out of their funk. The only thing that worries me is Seattle’s performance on the road this year. With this being a toss-up game, getting 2.5 points is more than enough for me to take the plunge.

Giants -2

The Giants are the better team in this matchup. The easy explanation is that the Giants won’t lose twice to the Boys this year. Eli is firing on all cylinders and Bradshaw is playing like a RB in his prime. Nicks is getting healthier each week and should have a big game as the Cowboys try to take away Cruz. The Cowboys on the other hand have struggled in the passing game this year. DeMarco Murray is on track to miss his 2nd straight game, leaving Fragile Felix and Tanner to shoulder the load. These two aren’t going to take much pressure off of Romo. The Giants DE’s are going to force Romo out of the pocket, where he is normally at his best, and make him turn the ball over. Dez Bryant drops the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left and the Giants Cruz to victory.

Had I written this article yesterday, I may have been able to win you some more money. Taking in the public’s current perception of the Vikings, I figured that the line would be skewed in their favor. Ponder came into the game with 2 poor outings in a row just as Freeman had 2 solid showings. As you can see from my bet below, I was very confident that the Bucs would win that game. 

High Priority

Rashad Jennings

Titus Young

James Kerley

If you have a high waiver priority or plenty of FAAB left, grab one of these guys. Preferably Jennings - he could possibly the pickup of the year. Each year, a player around this time becomes waiver wire gold and helps a mediocre team to the playoffs. However, don’t get too excited. The Jags offense is abysmal and the lack of a passing game can severely hurt the running game. Jennings has the skill set to be a starting RB in the league. As the clear workhorse, he’s a player that could give you the spark you’ve been looking for (assuming MJD misses significant time). Titus Young will take over Burleson’s role as the wideout opposite Megatron. The Lions passing game hasn’t been the same this year but their running game isn’t anything to brag about. They will continue to put the ball in the air, and Young has the ability to make plays after the catch. He just has to focus on running routes and hearing Stafford’s changes at the line. Kerley has emerged as the #1 target in the Jets offense. It may not say much, but they are passing a good amount each week. Their RB’s are all banged up which means the trend may continue. Don’t go wild with a #1/#2 priority, but if you need a WR this week Kerley is your man.

Bye Week Fill-In / Roster Stash

Josh Gordon

Leonard Hankerson

Phillip Tanner

Ryan Broyles

I mentioned Josh Gordon last week, but it bears repeating. The kid has playmaking ability. He’s much better in standard format vs. PPR, but he’s still worth a bye week fill-in. He’s had 4 TD’s in his last 3 games and he led the team with 10 targets last week. With T-Rich banged up, look for the arial assault to continue. Leonard Hankerson came back from the dead in Week 7 with 6 catches for 70 yards. RG3 likes to look for him underneath the coverage, and he’s proved that he’s capable of reeling the ball in. Don’t expect huge yardage numbers or many TD’s; he should produce just enough to get you through the bye week. Give him a bump in PPR leagues. Fragile Felix is already banged up after 1 start. Tanner is more of a stash than an immediate grab. Don’t go crazy using a high waiver priority or more than a few FAAB dollars. Just know that if Felix can’t carry a full load (or go at all for that matter) Tanner will be the Boy’s workhorse.  Ryan Broyles, the rookie from Oklahoma, is now slated to take over Titus Young’s slot role. He was the NCAA’s all-time leader in receptions. What does that mean? Well, nothing now that he is in the NFL. But the dude can catch the ball. PPR leaguers should definitely target Broyles as a stash, while those in regular leagues grab him and hope he pans out as a redzone target.

Other Notes

Week 7 Results: 3-1 ATS

Season to Date: 5-2 ATS

WIN. The Vikes -6 came through as expected. Ponder was much worse than I anticipated, and Skelton much better. Jared Allen and the Vikings defense wreaked havoc on Arizona’s pitiful O-Line and even managed a pick-6.  The Cards made this look closer than it was by scoring a TD in garbage time.

WIN. The Cowboys -2 just felt too good to be true. The Panther’s proceeded to fire their GM after the game (finally) after years of poor drafts and contract signings. Jones and Tanner didn’t too much for the run game, but Romo picked apart the defense just enough to get the win. Miles Austin stepped up while Dez took a backseat in targets due to his groin issue.

WIN. The Steelers -2.5 fell down early leaving me restless on the couch for Sunday Night Football. Once Heath got in the endzone with 24 seconds left in the half I started feeling much better about the game. The game itself was fairly dull combining the Bengals inability to move the ball with the Steelers inability to capitalize on their drives. Pittsburgh outgained Cincinnati 431-185 in total yards but only won by 7 points.

LOSS. The Raiders -4 were a point away from covering. Of course, the game went into overtime so we would have needed a TD to win. The Jaguars took a 17-6 lead into halftime behind Gabbert’s best half of football in 2 years. As karma would have it, Gabbert landed hard on his shoulders and had to pass the torch to Chad Henne. Henne came out and proved to the world that the Jags easily have the worst QB-combo in the league.