"Hassan and I looked at each other. Cracked up. The Hindi kid would soon learn what the British learned earlier in the century, and what the Russians would eventually learn by the late 1980's: that Afghans are an independent people. Afghans cherish customs but abhor rules. And so it was with kite fighting. The rules were simple: No rules. Fly your kite. Cut the opponents. Good luck."
~ Khaled Hosseini (The Kite Runner)
"The war is over", said Taliban spokesperson Mohammad Naeem as the militant group took control of the Presidential Palace on 15th August 2021. As the world watches in shock and anticipation for what has happened and what is to come, developments in Afghanistan are happening faster than the rate of analysis.
This is a brief primer on the history of conflict, the stakeholders involved, and the possibilities that lie ahead.
"Afghanistan—where empires go to die."
It all started in April 1978, when the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) seized power in Afghanistan in a bloody coup. They were quick to pass various social, religious and economic reforms that provoked strong opposition. This escalated to a full-fledged civil war in 1979, led by guerrilla mujahideen. The mujahideens were supported by Pakistan, Arabs and most importantly the United States who were all fearful of the growing Soviet influence in the region. Fast forward to December 1979, displeased with the communist regime in Afghanistan, the Soviet Army decided to invade the country. The war ended with Soviet retreat in 1988 and ultimately the fall of the communist PDPA regime in 1992.
The vacuum of power led to another civil war, primarily between the different factions of mujahideens. This time a new group, hardline in its fundamentalist values and religious tribalism, rose to power. They were called the Taliban, literally meaning "the students". The Taliban took control of Kabul and established it's emirate for the first time in 1996. Only three countries recognised the Taliban as a legitimate government; Pakistan, UAE and Saudi Arabia. The rest of the world condemned it's fanaticism, oppression of women and minorities, and massacres against its own population. But as Noam Chomsky put out in the best possible way, "States are not moral agents, but vehicles of power." Nothing substantial was done by either of the axis to stop the regime or atleast the Arab/Pakistani support to it. This changed after 9/11.
The United States, along with NATO and an unprecedented amount of international support invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 after the Taliban refused to handover it's "guest" and the chief conspirator of September 11 attacks, Osama Bin Laden. It's said objective was to replace the Talibani regime with one that is more friendly towards the west. It happened. The Taliban was defeated, and an Afghan Government led by President Hamid Karzai was installed. But the Taliban began an insurgency that kept the US trapped in the war for the next two decades, and finally a retreat, more appropriately "a loss".
There are four layers of the Afghan conflict:
1. Islamists and Secularists
"Religion is the heart of a heartless world, the soul of a soulless society and an opiate for the masses."
The term 'Islamism' is kind of a buzz word often thrown around in everyday political discourse. But, it's important to understand what it precisely means: "political Islam". It can come in both non-violent (Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt) and violent (Taliban in Afghanistan) forms. It's similar to Buddhist Nationalism in Sri Lanka and Myanmar, Hindutva in India or the Christian Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda. It is different from "jihadism", which seeks to create a global caliphate through violence (ISIS, for example). It's important to note that all of these are geopolitical terms and not religious.
The Afghan society, like every other society, is divided between the liberals and conservatives. During 70s, the liberals held a lot of power; today, practically null.
On July 8, U.S. President Joe Biden had said that a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was not inevitable. “The Afghan troops have 300,000 well equipped—as well equipped as any army in the world—and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban", he added. The U.S Intelligence, on the other hand, predicted that Afghanistan would fall to Taliban after around 90 days of US retreat. Fast forward to August 2021, it took Taliban merely one week to regain complete control over the country. The longest war in US history, giving around $ 83 billion in military aid to the Afghan army every year (which btw is more than India's defence budget) and thousands of casualties; this surely is a great setback for US' (and by extension, NATO's) imperialist ambitions.
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
Both China and Russia have developed ties with the Taliban, and have been assured the safety of their consulates. Unlike, USA and other Western powers who had to pull out of the country in urgency. China has numerous mining and construction projects in the country as well.
The same mujahideen, who fought off the Russians and Communists with US support four decades ago; fought off the US with Russian and Communist support. Oh, the irony!
"In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies. Only interests."
3. Arabs, Persians and Turks
The Arabs stopped supporting the Taliban after 9/11 so as to not hurt their ties with the west. Iran, jumped on the opportunity to safeguard one of its borders. As the Middle-Eastern cold war plays out in Syria and Yemen, some fear the same fate for Afghanistan.
An important player this time would be Turkey, who under Recep Erdogan has shown ambitions to take the symbolic leadership of the Muslim world from Saudi Arabia. Turkey has offered to be the incharge of Kabul Airport, which is the single most important piece of infrastructure in landlocked Afghanistan. So far Turkey has refrained from taking active sides and would continue to do so. Supporting Taliban would mean upsetting it's NATO allies and opposing it would mean upsetting Pakistan, an important ally.
Pakistan knew what the Taliban knew: that one day the Americans would leave, and Pakistan would still need Afghanistan.
~ Tim Marshall (Prisoners of Geography)
The Taliban control of Afghanistan is arguably the biggest geopolitical victory for Pakistan. Why? Let's start with the salty Pak-Afghan relations.
In 1947, Afghanistan was the sole country to vote against Pakistan's admission in the UN. The countries share a bloody border (Durand Line) that runs through the middle of the Pashtun Heartbelt. Afghanistan claims large swathes of Pakistani territory. Pakistan's biggest nightmare would be a pro-India government in Afghanistan, which would sandwich it between two big border disputes.
Since the 1970s, Pakistan has been the most active supporter of the mujahideens. And from the 1990s, it chose Taliban as it's favourite amongst favourites. In the aftermath of 9/11, Pakistan played a "double game" with US, taking its foreign aid while continue supporting the Taliban.
It would have been a perfect happy ending for Pakistan, but it seemed there was a tiny little problem. You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect it to not bite you. The TTP or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is a Taliban-esque terrorist group that operates mainly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Pakistan and wants a separate Pashtunistan. It was responsible, most infamously, for the attack in a military school in Peshawar in 2014. So, while Pakistan celebrates Afghanistan's descent to Taliban, it must also be aware of its consequences.
India, on the other hand, has everything to lose. Taliban in power would mean India losing some leverage against Pakistan. But more importantly, Taliban has associations with anti-India terrorist groups like Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed. While the Taliban in its peace treaty has assured the US that it will not host any anti-west terrorist groups, no such promise has been made for India.
Two different scenarios seem plausible:
The US along with its NATO allies invaded Iraq in 2003 and retreated in 2011. What happened next was the bloodiest and most inhumane power exchange our generation has ever seen: the rise of ISIS. Concerns about similar fate for Afghanistan are not unjustified.
The Taliban knows that no country in the post-covid world would like a war in the "graveyard of empires". It also knows that this time it has the support of almost all its significant neighbours, from China to Iran. In other words, the Taliban seems invincible and unchanged.
More optimistic people are comparing the US retreat from Afghanistan to the fall of Saigon. In 1975, Saigon, the capital of US-backed South Vietnam, fell to Communist-ruled North Vietnam two years after the withdrawal of the American military which had been in the country for 19 years. The unified Vietnam then went on to have a complete reform, popularly known as DoiMoi or The Renovation.
NATO's Chief Negotiator Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad frequently talks about the idea of a "reformed" Taliban. On one hand, everyone is tired of war, and it would be easy for a reformed Taliban to gain international legitimacy. On the other, Taliban's competition in the region would be ISIS Khorasan and Al-Qaeda, not the ideal environment for reform.
The Humanitarian Crisis:-
"Life in Afghanistan felt like a lottery where the grand prize was avoiding disaster."
This is the most important part of the article. More than 200,000 people have been killed and more than 5 Million displaced. Women, children and minorities being the easiest targets. School and hospitals lie in ruins. Cultural heritage sites such as the Buddha of Bamyan destroyed. The future of Afghanistan, much like it's past, seems gloomy. More so, if you consider the fact that one of the first things the Taliban did after capturing Kabul was to tell female bankers not to come to the office from the next day. Reformed? meh.
zulm to fir zulm hai, badhta hai to mit jata hai
khoon to fir khoon hai, girega to jam jayega
Cruelty is after all cruelty, when it inflates, it dissipates
Blood is after all blood, when it drips, it coagulates