A Little Bit of Everything

This isn't just bad news for Ellison; it's bad news for Paramount.  No studio should have to bleed cash just to obsessively pursue a pointless merger with WBD—a deal I believe will be dead on arrival.  It’s infuriating viewers and creative talent, sacrificing potential blockbusters to the streaming churn, and chasing subscriber targets for a barely alive Paramount Plus through questionable political deal-making—all using the studio's funds.  (Latest victim:  Avatar Aang, a movie with all the potential to be a smash—the sold-out success of its theatrical week proof of that. A film which, by the way, was SUPPOSED to be for theaters, instead of being stripped of that honor and dumped onto Paramount Plus. Seriously, can you imagine anyone is gonna be happy about that? No? I thought not.)

What am I implying?

Well, history shows us what happens when CEOs get so arrogant and blind that they cause catastrophic damage to their companies.  Their careers get derailed.  We saw it happen with Bob Chapek at Disney, who got kicked out after abandoning theatrical revenue to chase streaming growth.  Ellison might be harder to dislodge because he's backed by a fiercely loyal board, but even that armor is not impenetrable.

No seemingly unstoppable tyrant is immune to a downfall.  It can happen, and it might happen here.  If it does, it won't be because Ellison suddenly found humility or realized the damage he's doing.  It will be driven by a massive shareholder revolt, or by Delaware judges uncovering the truth behind these backroom deals, backed by furious investors tired of watching their cash drain into a legal nightmare.

I am saying that David Ellison's career might be headed for a similar crash.  The beginning of the end could very well start on August 4.  Frankly, it couldn't happen soon enough to such an incompetent, stubborn, and out-of-touch executive.  (I could say the same about that guy in the White House, but that's off-topic.)

So now Ellison is saying he'll move Paramount's headquarters out of California if the Attorney General doesn't agree to do things his way regarding the trial. Baa-aa-aa-aa-aa-aa-aa-ad move, boy. You're just stating something that nobody is interested in doing and if anything, providing more fuel to getting kicked out of Paramount.

Behavior like this is an indication that Ellison is spiraling out of control, and if there is any time to fire him, it's now. Him being slapped with those lawsuits, breaking promises with fans and artists, and now alienating his own team... this is NOT how you run a studio.

For those of you who may have heard reports that Avatar Studios' movie for Zuko has been scrapped... let me elaborate.

The creators said at the SDCC panel that they have currently put the project on hold in order to focus first on Avatar Aang: The Last Airbender, and THEN Avatar Seven Heavens. Mike and Bryan literally said the leaked reports were "half right and half wrong"—they didn't trash the Zuko movie, they just paused it to focus on Aang.

The real hold-up is the man pulling their strings—David Ellison, you know, the guy who owns Paramount. And his time is ticking to an end. Remember, there is the ticking fee, the shareholder lawsuit, and the people against him. His time as a CEO is ticking down. Chances are he will both lose any opportunity to complete his WBD and be kicked out. And then someone more filmmaker friendly, perhaps Cindy Holland, will take his place.

Only when that happens will the way be clear for Avatar Studios to continue with their plans and not be held back by a man who cares about subscriptions and loyalties to corrupt politicians.

The Q2 meeting at Paramount happened, and honestly, the results are not great.  The company's actual net profit has fallen short of its projections.  Wall Street estimated 17 cents per share, but instead Paramount nailed $41 million (4 cents per share).  That's BAD.  Yes, the revenue marginally beats projections at $6.91 billion, but that profit miss shows how the legacy TV side of the studio is struggling.  Not something to be proud of.

Other things to consider, the trial for the WB-Discovery antitrust merger is officially set for March 2, 2027.   This means that Paramount is stuck in a legal limbo.   It also puts Ellison in a terrible position, even if he claims he's "highly confident" the deal will close.

The stock value?   It's been a disaster lately, trading near its 52-week low of $7.62—down from a previous high of $20.86.

Ellison argued that there was a gain of 2 million subscribers to Paramount Plus, bringing the total to 81.6 million.  But that was all because of temporary live events such as the World Cup and UFC fights.  Yes, streaming segment profits jumped 44% to $366 million.  But that’s no healthy net; it’s cheap change… and not enough to stop the financial bleeding either.

The Wall Street guys gave him a pass today because of this temporary bump, but the overall outlook on Paramount is still very bad under Ellison's term.  Long-term investors aren't gonna be thrilled with this.

WARNING: This is gonna be a rant, so bear with me. First things first: AVATAR AANG: THE LAST AIRBENDER is great. A great movie—a 4.5 out of 5 follow-up to an iconic series.

What I am furious about, however, is Paramount's mishandling of the whole movie. This was meant to be a THEATRICAL release from the start, not throwaway churn for streaming. The real person to blame for this is the man who runs Paramount. HE is the reason why so many fans were furious. His reputation, by the way, is going downhill. He was once seen as Hollywood's "golden boy," but that is no longer how he is being perceived. I'm not talking about how he has alienated the fans by moving AVATAR AANG to streaming and only giving a two theater release—and how he left millions of dollars on the table. Remember Bob Chapek? He did the same, and he got kicked out. I personally believe that Mr. Ellison's time to have the same thing happen to him is coming, too. And not just because of Avatar.

This is the same man whose plot to buy Warner Bros Discovery is currently in limbo—delayed to 2027, and now forced to pay a ticking fee on account of this. This is an indication that the deal is dead on arrival. He is also getting attacked by the WGA, and more recently, a shareholder sued him for using Paramount's funds to do illegal dealings with a certain person I will not mention. Delaware is slapping him with a trial.

So what does this mean? It means that Ellison's credibility for withholding a movie that should be a widespread release and a surefire box office smash (the sellouts at the screenings are an indication of his blind obsession for subscriptions), as well as alienating talent and fans, attempted monopoly, and shady business with politics, most likely means he is not going to last much longer at Paramount. The shareholders' meeting is coming soon. July 31 and August 4. He will be facing tough questions from investors about his decisions. And unable to deflect or defend himself with weak PR.

See what I'm getting at? If there's any moment where Mr. Ellison could meet the same fate as Chapek, it could very well be as soon as this year. And it could mean that Paramount gets a better CEO who understands the value of box office hits and not outdated dreams like competing with Netflix (that dream is dead), and respects talent and audiences. Even put AVATAR AANG back in theaters where it belongs, I can dream.