lucid dreamer

Implicit differentiation was making me go crazy, so I decided to fuck around with linear equations on Desmos instead. Algebra 1 save me. Algebra 1 pls.

Big brain data people could probably do this better than me, but nobody was doing it (not on tumblr, at least). Anyway: this is a very simple Desmos graph that shows you two things—

at what round a driver will be mathematically out of the championship depending on how much worse they score per round vs Kimi Antonelli, and

at what round a driver will lock down the championship depending how much better they score per round vs Kimi Antonelli

If you are one of those aforementioned big brain data people, that is probably all the information you need to work the graph, so here’s the link.

If you only follow me because of George Russell, here's the link to a much simpler graph comparing only George and Kimi, which will explain everything in the “info” folder.

More explanation for everyone else:

Click the purple link above.

Change the second expression (x_driver) to whichever driver you are comparing to Kimi right now. Format it like firstinitial_lastname. For example, Charles Leclerc would be c_leclerc.

Change the j(x) in the second expression to the first initial of whichever driver you are comparing to Kimi. Because some drivers have the same first initials, there are some exceptions to this. Here is the full list for convenience:

Lewis = l(x), Lando = l_2(x), Liam = l_3(x), Lance = l_4(x)

George = g(x), Gabi = g_2(x)

Oscar = o(x), Ollie = o_2(x)

Arvid = a(x), Alex = a_2(x)

Franco = f(x), Fernando = f_2(x)

Esteban = s(x), Checo = s_2(s) <- I had to do that because desmos kept taking e as, like, the literal e

Play around on the sliders to see when your driver would theoretically lose/lock down the championship. They represent average points scored per round.

The intersection of the thick red and black lines means that after that round, [a driver] is no longer mathematically in the championship, hence the "point of no return". (If the red line is straight, then [a driver] means [your driver]. if the red line is bent, then [a driver] means Kimi.)

For example, if Kimi were to win and George DNF every race like Spa, the red and black lines would intersect at x=5, meaning George would be out of the championship in 5 rounds (by Singapore).

And here is how Lance Stroll could theoretically lock down the championship by Abu Dhabi:

Limitations of this graph:

It assumes there are literally 2 drivers in the championship. In the Lance Stroll example above, Lance would knock Kimi out of the championship by Abu Dhabi, but he doesn't necessarily win the championship either unless everyone else between Kimi and Lance in the standings also scores less than a total of 204 points. Kimi basically functions as a stand in for the "leader" of the championship.

Likewise, it does not guarantee that Kimi will win the championship when the black and red lines intersect, it only means that one driver is for sure locked out. In the above George example, if Lewis theoretically was P2 for every single round, he could still challenge Kimi for 3 more rounds after George had already lost.