it all goes back and back

Two naive estimates are treating a book as a book as a book. Stephen King wrote a book in a month, George Martin should be able to do that too. Then you say, no, King's books are shorter, so book complexity should really be a function of word length.

But that falls short fast. There are short stories more complex to write than some novels, simply because they are pulling off more complex things with their writing, while the novel is trite and hackneyed. (More complex doesn't mean more or less good, of course--a book entirely written without the letter 'e' is pretty complex for the average human to write, but it's probably not anyone's favorite novel.)

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He is not particularly politically deft, I would agree, but I think this is a tad uncharitable. This lack of competency doesn't mean that he is not attempting to do something about the problem of Aerys - in fact, Elia wasn't even involved in Harrenhal conspiracy at first, she just found about about it early on and urged Rhaegar to involve her, it was Rhaegar who was driving it. But my impression of Rhaegar is that his visions are so all-consuming they warp his understanding of what a normal person understands and knows and thus makes diplomacy a little challenging. This doesn't mean he's all ego; if anything, the prophecy is part of the reason why he is so concerned with duty. To give you an example, he plays the Song of Ice and Fire, in High Valyrian, at the beginning of the tourney - not because he thinks it's a beautiful song, but because he thinks it's subtle signal of rebellion that the lords would understand, he's attempting to reach them (this fails). He ends up fumbling a conversation with Robert by bringing up grief - but there was a genuine attempt to reach him there. I think what people miss with Rhaegar is what is motivating him to secure political power is in fact the prophecy, and his dutifulness stems from that. Elia suggests a different approach but if she hadn't been there, I imagine Rhaegar would not have just shrugged his shoulders and called it a day? I think I'd draw a distinction here between his lacking diplomacy skills and his commitment to the realm - because until Lyanna, he was genuinely trying to change things for the better.