vani

Let's start with a key assumption. If this assumption is proven to be wrong later, then the theory very much falls apart, but I feel fairly confident about this for now.

Assumption: CXS's death scene from Yingdu episode 1 is the original timeline, as is the dive back to the basketball court.

The reason I think this is from both a narrative standpoint and a character one. From a narrative standpoint, it makes sense to show us either the first timeline or the most recent one after s2's cliffhanger ending. These are the timelines that actually have consequences for our story. Here, we see a lot of focus given to the transfer of Cheng Xiaoshi's power, and his dying request of Lu Guang. This dying request, to save everyone, is referenced in a later nightmare sequence, where Lu Guang is reminded that everyone has died. I don't think it makes much sense to focus on Cheng Xiaoshi's final words in a repeated timeline, unless they were framed as something Lu Guang has clearly heard before, which, they weren't.

Which brings me to the main reason I believe this is the original timeline: Lu Guang's reaction.

He's in shock for much of the events here - doesn't look at all like he knows or knew what was about to happen. If this wasn't the original timeline, I would expect him to look more desperate and sad than shocked. His reaction after diving also doesn't make much sense to me if this isn't the first dive he's attempted. Again, I'd expect him to look more haunted and sullen if this is a repeat. Instead, he looks around at his clothes and at his surroundings for a bit before getting hit by the ball, sees Cheng Xiaoshi, gasps and immediately tears up. <- Not the reaction I'd expect from a man used to diving.

Hopefully, you either agree with me or can at least suspend your disbelief enough to hear me out.

Let's go over what's odd about the initial Vein confrontation, yes?

Vein never actually shoots or even aims at Cheng Xiaoshi

"This is the punishment for you changing the past."

Vein doesn't finish off Lu Guang afterwards

Point 1: Vein knocks Cheng Xiaoshi back and twirls his gun. A few seconds pass in which Vein does not aim at Cheng Xiaoshi at all, just stands there, maybe to make sure he stays down. Lu Guang rounds the corner and Vein immediately fires a shot at him.

If Vein wanted to kill Cheng Xiaoshi, he could've already done it here. He's fast. He fired that shot at Lu Guang in a split second. The implication here is that Cheng Xiaoshi was not the target - the target was Lu Guang.

Point 2: Vein tells Lu Guang that his actions are punishment for changing the past. If we go by the assumption that this is the original timeline, this... doesn't make much sense. Lu Guang doesn't have the power to change the past without Cheng Xiaoshi's ability. It suggests that Vein is not after them here because of Lu Guang's attempt(s) to save Cheng Xiaoshi, but for some other deviation.

Conclusion? This is a shared punishment. In the original timeline, it seems very likely that Lu Guang and Cheng Xiaoshi made some kind of change, or changes, to the past. <- This may actually explain why Lu Guang in the current timeline is so adamant about Cheng Xiaoshi not changing anything.

It is possible that the combination of their powers resulted in some kind of significant deviation, or else that they were mistaken for or had the blame pinned on them for someone else's actions. Either way, Vein seems to only gun for one of them, but it's not the one I'd expect.

After all, if this is a punishment for changing the timeline (and presumably, you wouldn't want them changing anything else), why wouldn't you shoot the guy who actually... makes the changes? Why try to shoot Lu Guang?

Well... maybe you would if you actually wanted the exact opposite outcome.

Vein misses Lu Guang several times in this scene. It's a little strange, given that he's been backed into a corner and his attempt to fight back does him no good at all. You can see in his fight against Shao Yuanyuan/Wang Qing in episode 6 that he does have good aim and is actually fairly efficient with his objectives. You could say he's toying with him, and maybe so! Vein clearly loves a good fight. Much like Liu Xiao, he has the vibe of a "hunter". But Vein also is stated to have a certain set of principles. To me, it feels like he's putting on a show.

This brings me back to the main question: why didn't he try to shoot Cheng Xiaoshi? Why kill everyone connected with them and attempt to kill Lu Guang, ostensibly as "punishment", when Cheng Xiaoshi is the one who can actually dive?

Point 3: Lu Guang helps Cheng Xiaoshi into the darkroom and locks the door. Vein fires a shot but then just kind of... stands there, grimacing. He doesn't even try to break the door down, which I'm sure he easily could. <-This is the weirdest part of the scene.

I don't think this was supposed to happen. I don't think Cheng Xiaoshi was intended to take that bullet.

I think Vein put on that show, wanting Cheng Xiaoshi to see him shoot Lu Guang. I don't think Vein expected Cheng Xiaoshi to dive in front and die.

You could say that Vein just decided to wait outside for Lu Guang to come out instead of exerting energy, but that's strange because in the time afterwards, from 23:11 on September 12th when they stumbled into the darkroom to just a little before 00:05 on September 13th when he leaves, Lu Guang gets injured, but is left alive, and Vein is nowhere to be seen. There is absolutely no way Lu Guang was able to fend off Vein, and the only other possible sign of a continued skirmish is more blood on the photo and its positioning (this could be an animation error, truthfully - everything else in the scene is the same as before - but if it is an error then that helps my point even more - there are no further signs of struggle).

The police didn't arrive and force Vein to leave. The implication is Vein left Lu Guang alive after waiting patiently outside the door for him to come out. Why? Why wait?

Well, one possible explanation: he didn't want to interrupt the power transfer.

Think about it. Why leave one alive, but kill everyone else? If it was to avoid them making changes, only one of the pair with the actual powers needs to die. Not everyone connected to them. This situation seems explicitly orchestrated to make it so Cheng Xiaoshi cannot resist diving back. I suspect he was already intending to - if you look at the scene where Lu Guang glances down at the shattered photo, his breath hitches - I suspect Qiao Ling is already dead and they know that.

Cheng Xiaoshi's last request is to save everyone, since he is now unable to - he cannot take the shot himself, so he passes the ball to the person he trusts most. And I think this was the goal all along. In a situation like this, how could he not try to save them? Especially if, as I suspect, the rules regarding past and future weren't made quite as strict in this timeline as they are in the current one.

Except this didn't go quite according to plan, because in epic Cheng Xiaoshi fashion, he did something that wasn't anticipated and died in Lu Guang's stead. Not ideal, clearly, from Vein's reaction, but it doesn't actually matter.

All that matters is that one of them dives back. The outcome is the same.

Why kill everyone, but leave one alive, and with a power that will allow them and inevitably tempt them to try to save their loved ones? The most obvious answer is if this is exactly the outcome you wanted.

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Now, why do I say Liu Xiao intended this if the main actor here was Vein? Well, for one, Vein doesn't seem aware in Yingdu arc of changes to the timeline, except in this scene. Needless to say, he is definitely not privy to Lu Guang having future knowledge - Lu Guang is suspicious to him, but it does not seem to occur to Vein that he could be from the future. This information likely comes from Liu Xiao, who Vein works with during the arc to obtain Cheng Weimin's book and who unzips his body bag at the end of the season. Out of anyone who could've orchestrated this, our favourite puppeteer manipulator is the most likely candidate.

I won't claim to know what's going on with Liu Xiao, nor what his goals actually are, but I suspect he has at least some future knowledge or is somehow able to catch glimpses of parallel lines. He comes across as much older in the flashbacks with him and Li Tianchen as children. There is an odd bit in Yingdu episode 2 during the roulette scene where there is a flash to the gun killing him. Metaphor or vision? It's hard to say.

Interestingly, in the Bridon pv, Liu Xiao looks back at Cheng Xiaoshi and Lu Guang in the airport and smiles but does not approach them. Lu Guang even mentions that they didn't run into Liu Xiao in the past timeline.

At the end of episode 1, in the current timeline, Liu Xiao says "Finally, we can start the game." It implies that all the pieces are finally in place. This may be why he approaches Cheng Xiaoshi in the airport and asked Xia Fei to trail him, expecting him to have dived back from the future.

I suspect his knowledge isn't perfect. Liu Xiao is a gambler. He's not like Lu Guang, who needs to have perfect control and anticipate every outcome. He wasn't really paying much attention to Lu Guang at all until he noticed something strange - ostensibly his heartbeat. Again, I suspect the person he intended to have dive was Cheng Xiaoshi. Lu Guang was not expected - but he can still work with this, and clearly does, because at no point does it seem like any of Lu Guang's actions or knowledge disrupted his plans. Instead, it seems like everything is going smoothly because of his actions.

Everything Lu Guang does, including his decision to stall Vein and try to get him killed, seems to work out in Liu Xiao's favour. I suspect, inadvertently, that Lu Guang is doing exactly what he wants him to. Lu Guang's only real moment of "masterminding" is therefore implied to have been anticipated. Liu Xiao smiles when Xia Fei receives the call about Vein's "death", as if he knew.

"You might have seen something interesting."

It checks out. This frame from Train Trail during his verse says "the puppets are standing" over everyone's silhouettes - including Lu Guang. Lu Guang is also frequently shown as either trapped or drowning in official art and in Yingdu - if he was intended to be a mastermind on equal footing with Liu Xiao, I really don't think we'd see so much of his feelings of helplessness, nor his repeated assertions that he essentially has no idea what he's doing and doesn't actually expect the outcome to change. Liu Xiao doesn't seem to have any such compunctions or concerns in this sense.

If Lu Guang does turn out to have been essentially manipulated into this situation, it would follow a particular pattern seen in Link Click. There are characters who enact control over others but are ultimately being puppeteered or manipulated (Liu Min trying to control what is said about him comes to mind, as does Li Tianchen's literal control, to an extent), as well as characters who, through desperation and/or love, and the limited options available to them in their shitty situations, become complicit in something immoral and suffer for it (Emma taking the money from Zhu, Li Tianxi being the other half of the remote control, Vivian becoming a scammer). If Liu Xiao really did orchestrate Lu Guang's dive, then Lu Guang would follow both these patterns, as a puppet with the power of future knowledge that can (and perhaps has) hurt others, and as a victim who made a desperate choice and is now trapped by its consequences.

One last bit of evidence - this time explicitly about Liu Xiao.

^Everyone is familiar with 091305 by now. September 13th at 12:05 am. The date and time Lu Guang dived back from. However, something interesting here: the year is blurred out.

Moreover, I see people say sometimes that this is Cheng Xiaoshi's death date - it isn't. Remember the time from when they were in the darkroom? Cheng Xiaoshi's death occurred on September 12th, just a little past 11:11 pm.

Here's one last fun thing before I close out this post: