Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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is there any lost dnp content that would have been available in 2016? i have an old hard drive with 20gb of dinof, ap, dapg, and sap videos downloaded from around that time. definitely some that have since been deleted as the dinof purge came several years after that; probably some random tabinof/tatinof trailers that aren't up anymore. i might have been overzealously preparing for a long flight or something, i was fairly inscrutable at age 16
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I know Dan and Phil have their own head cannons about what dogs they are but… as a certified dog trainer, I have to say they are categorically incorrect (soz, guys)
Dan thinks that he’s a Shiba Inu but he frankly does not have the disposition or constant fucking gremlin energy. Simply put, he is, at his core, the Goodest Boy. Even when he’s snappy or bitchy or being the biggest chaos gremlin, he is still the sweetest thing on planet earth. Yes, I am biased.
For your consideration:
And, for further proof: dinof and adolescent German sheppers:
German Shepards are FIERCELY loyal and protective, they are not “friendly” dogs towards strangers or people they see as a threat. They’re reserved and slightly standoffish towards new people, often remaining very quiet and still while observing. They’re insanely smart and learn very quickly (but only things that they want to learn or are heavily incentivized to learn). They’re brave and loyal when it comes to ONE (or a selective few) person and they’re basically velcroed to their favorite person.
They’re naturally fairly anxious (which aids them in doing their jobs properly) but that often causes separation anxiety and fear-based reactivity. They snap quickly and briefly, especially when young, under-socialized, and untrained. They’re incredibly observant and constantly have an eye out, watching what’s going on around them. It’s very easy to create reactivity in them when they’re not raised kindly, they adapt to their situations very well (sometimes in ways that are not conducive to their emotional development and growth, depending on the situation and the people they’re around). Their default is suspicion and light judgment. They’ve got big personalities and even bigger mouths. They’re big AF, I’ve trained German Shepards that were almost to my hip and they are solid beans, even when young and lanky.
They’re VERY high energy and it’s hard to contain that energy properly if they’re not given an outlet. They’re super mouthy and LOUD AF. Seriously, they do not ever shut up. If they’re not barking, they’re whining or vocalizing. They love attention from their person but get very shy or even slightly bitchy if given attention from someone they don’t like or trust. If given the opportunity (and opposable thumbs), they would definitely blow bubbles on an airplane, much to the chagrin of their handler.
They’re also insanely dramatic and they will put on the equivalent of a Shakespearean drama when they don’t like something you’re doing or if they don’t want to do what you’re asking them to do. They’re not compliant, they’re not particularly obedient unless they actually like and respect you.
They’re not easy dogs by any means nor would I recommend the breed to ANYONE because they are expert level dogs. You have to have a certain disposition to set a German Shepard up for success. You have to be patient, kind, and gentle while also being incredibly firm and not allowing them to push boundaries you’ve set. Because they WILL constantly test the limits of the boundaries. You cannot get frustrated with them, yell at them, or be violent with them (unless you’re clearly being playful) because it causes severe behavioral issues. Despite what many people think, given their reputation and their look, they’re actually some of the kindest, softest dogs you’ll ever meet… if you’re their person. If you’re not, they probably do not give a single fuck about you.
I talked a lot about Dan as a GSD but I didn’t mention why I also think Phil is completely wrong about being a corgi.
Because, yes, corgis are super fucking cute and they’ve got great lil fluffy butts.
But they are also agents of pure chaos, manic energy, and complete and utter annihilation.
And, frankly, Phil does not give off that vibe at all. So, for your consideration:
Phil is a Whippet
Whippets are still incredibly smart and can have intense amounts of energy but they’re also gentle, mostly calm, and affectionate. They’re incredibly fragile and fairly adverse to any extreme weather. Prone to several health issues. And they have the air of being only slightly mentally present about 99% of the time.
They’re fairly spacey and goofy, when they tune back into reality, they’re hyper focused (the point where it can be almost unnerving). They’re incredibly intelligent and insanely sensitive but they’re also incredibly independent and don’t really follow “commands” as much as they need you to convince them that what you want them to do is better than what they want to do.
They may seem airheaded but they’re just not fucking listening to you because you’re being boring. They evaluate commands and decide whether or not they want to listen to you. They definitely know their fucking names but they may or may not respond to them based purely on vibes or what whims they’re following that day.
They look dissociated like 90% of the time when indoors (when they’re outdoors and doing things, they’re incredibly energetic, friendly, and take control of most social situations). They’re very princess-y and are incredibly particular about what they like (food, blankets, clothes). They’re big on texture and all differ in what textures they find acceptable. They’re quirky af, they’re incredibly stubborn, and they ARE smarter than you and they know it.
They’re also incredibly anxious and prone to separation anxiety. They do not do well when left alone (yea, they might dye everything in your house green if you leave them for several hours. They might stage a world takeover if you left them alone for months on end). They’re also “velcro” dogs and tend to choose their favorite person in a family.
They’re fucking hilarious and cheeky as hell. They’re far more clever than they let on, often seeming more like a space case than anything else. Many whippet owners complain that they thought their whippet was dumb because they didn’t respond to their name, cues/commands, and often just walked away in the middle of being spoken to but they’re actually so smart that they just get bored of our bullshit and interrupt us to do what they want to do.
For @cysthurtandyoull
They do also have the tendency to stare, unblinkingly at you until you feel incredibly uncomfortable
All in all: Phil IS a whippet.
Bonus Tori Lore: when I worked at a doggy daycare, there was a whippet named Fletcher who just deeply reminded me of Phil. He was white with the biggest eyes and the way he would just stare into your soul was so fucking unnerving and a little hypnotic. He was also very sweet and a little bitchy at times but in a way that was incredibly endearing. Everyone liked him, even the dogs who were indifferent at best about other animals. He was just a deeply likable boy and knew how to get attention (he very much enjoyed climbing onto objects he knew he wasn’t supposed to be on when your back was turned and just perching on them).
never would have guessed that seeing a person in their fuckass pajamas would make me go crazy insane and want to chew on walls and doorframes but today proved me it’s possible. wow it’s only amazingphil. his power
for the first time in history, the most common phanfic rating in the Dan Howell/Phil Lester tag on ao3 for this year so far was Explicit. and it's lowkey not that close.
phannies are so back. HORNIER THAN EVER.
i have beautiful graphs to prove this, but i'm going to be gatekeeping a little longer, as this is the first finding of a little phan ao3 stats study i've been doing-- stay tuned for a purely numbers-based history of top/bottom dynamics lol (not based on tags. people don't use tags. i mean that i've read literally hundreds of fics over the past month to get a truly random, hopefully representative sample from each year.)
it's basically our nonstop holiday season that goes from sep-dec because there are so many anniversaries/events/traditions:
starting in late september you'll see people reblogging the 2009 posts and origin story (dan's first video, then oct 19th is it's own holiday for us, pinof, halloween gathering)
spooky week and halloween baking (if not a new one then everyone talking about previous ones). then we've got japhan 2.0 anniversary in november so prepare to see a lot of gifs that week. of course the annual festive ditl rewatch in december and gamingmas rewatches
dnp also love to drop projects during phannie season (truth bombs, ii, stereo, younow coming back, tatinof/wad/tit all starting in the fall). they kind of just go feral in general so prepare for more posting and immaculate vibes from them
tldr it's the best time of the yearrr and everyone just comes alive and the dash will always be celebrating Something every day it's incredible <33333
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the phannie season is approaching! i can’t wait for new phannies to experience it fully for the first time ever ☺️☺️☺️☺️ phannie holidays. phannie christmas. and the list keeps growing!! and this year they’ll be on tour all month!!!
september-october: celebration of dnp meeting online. lots of iconic tweets and formsprings and dailybooths have their birthdays here. longtime phannies Will be reblogging
october 13: the first ever hard launch day
october 16: hello internet day
october 19: the 17th phanniversary❤️🧡💛💚💙💜
october 25: pinof day
october 26-31 spooky week*/halloween baking/sister daniel’s birthday
*NOTE: spooky week expectations should be low in tour years. it’s unlikely we have a full spooky week, though possible to get baking!
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