Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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No because the Golden Pig Fan Question™️ was actually so well thought out, verbalized, and presented and I was SO worried it was going to be something silly or way too invasive and then they IMMEDIATELY DID THE DAN AND PHIL ANSWERING QUESTIONS™️ THING aASDFFKGKHLÑSJFGJ guys PLEASE
scratching my eyes out brother WHYYY are they like this. the problem is what we did get, in the question + (dan's) answer, was SO GOOD. i love the question and agree with you, i think it was thoughtful and well-considered, paid a lot of respect to what they do as a CRAFT (asking specifically about which projects they would redo) while being cognizant of the fact that their personal growth journeys heavily influence their craft (asking what they would have done differently as the people they are now). personally this is the kind of question i wish dan and phil would answer WAY more — if only more people would ask them. like you said it can very often lean all the way parasocial (sometimes invasively but often just like — asking the questions you'd ask a friend, you know. and there is a place for those questions!!! i love those questions. just like, maybe not all the time?)
dan maybe didn't exactly answer what the question was asking but it was SUCH a lovely response and one that carried a lot of emotional weight for us as a community!!! idec that it didn't follow the question to the letter because i feel like it answered the essence of it — how would the person you are now retroactively affect a part of / the course of your career. to say he wouldn't have gone on hiatus is IMMENSELY healing imo, even if that can't actually be taken back and everyone who lived through it still had to live through it lmao.
phil initially completely missing the point of the question can be forgiven because he was being really sweet. it's clear what his brain prioritises and it's their relationship. obviously coming out about it has affected their careers hugely, and maybe that's the angle he was coming at it from — there is no one project he would have specifically redone as the person he is now, rather all their projects would have been affected for the better if they'd done it out and proud. VERY SWEET SENTIMENT. UNFORTUNATELY! RAAAAAAHHHHHHH BC WE NEVER GOT A REVISED ANSWER FROM HIM
this is where i feel like the phroducers could step in more. dnp's job is to yap and bounce off each other and go on funny little tangents but i think for the sake of creating an actual professional (high quality) product, the phroducers could act more as dnp's QC managers. dnp aren't gonna notice these things bc they're shooting the shit but the phroducers could!!! keep an eye on content while dnp handle the flow. especially important as this isn't some random richard ball this is the much-awaited golden pig question! anyway
dan failing to ensure phil answered The long-awaited and carefully crafted Golden Ball question and then phil immediately making sure dan answered the "do you trust birds" question. welcome to the dan and phil experience
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i do think dan having his haru pillow on his bed behind him during livestreams and then reading comments asking about it and being like “what? what pillow?” was funny as fuck
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As someone who's had their RPF fic READ ON CAMERA by one of the guys I was writing about... Yeah, it sucks but also it's part of the game.
It's not their place but they can still get in there, anybody can. Even if you lock it and say "dnp go away" they can get in.
If you're ashamed of being a freak then don't be, personally, if Daniel Howell wants to read 2009 himself being dubious-con gangbanged by all era Phil clones, I'm working on it, be patient king.
“phan isn’t real.” I say into the mic, the crowd boos and throws clique merch at me. I stand my ground, I’m not a fucking pussy. The crowd of 12 year olds start screaming “the whiskers come from within!” and “ladders!”. I am very close to ending it all when two posh voices command silence over the crowd. “She’s right, stop fetishizing gay relationships.” Dan and Phil themselves stand in the back.
