Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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for the first time in history, the most common phanfic rating in the Dan Howell/Phil Lester tag on ao3 for this year so far was Explicit. and it's lowkey not that close.
phannies are so back. HORNIER THAN EVER.
i have beautiful graphs to prove this, but i'm going to be gatekeeping a little longer, as this is the first finding of a little phan ao3 stats study i've been doing-- stay tuned for a purely numbers-based history of top/bottom dynamics lol (not based on tags. people don't use tags. i mean that i've read literally hundreds of fics over the past month to get a truly random, hopefully representative sample from each year.)
it's basically our nonstop holiday season that goes from sep-dec because there are so many anniversaries/events/traditions:
starting in late september you'll see people reblogging the 2009 posts and origin story (dan's first video, then oct 19th is it's own holiday for us, pinof, halloween gathering)
spooky week and halloween baking (if not a new one then everyone talking about previous ones). then we've got japhan 2.0 anniversary in november so prepare to see a lot of gifs that week. of course the annual festive ditl rewatch in december and gamingmas rewatches
dnp also love to drop projects during phannie season (truth bombs, ii, stereo, younow coming back, tatinof/wad/tit all starting in the fall). they kind of just go feral in general so prepare for more posting and immaculate vibes from them
tldr it's the best time of the yearrr and everyone just comes alive and the dash will always be celebrating Something every day it's incredible <33333
the phannie season is approaching! i can’t wait for new phannies to experience it fully for the first time ever ☺️☺️☺️☺️ phannie holidays. phannie christmas. and the list keeps growing!! and this year they’ll be on tour all month!!!
september-october: celebration of dnp meeting online. lots of iconic tweets and formsprings and dailybooths have their birthdays here. longtime phannies Will be reblogging
october 13: the first ever hard launch day
october 16: hello internet day
october 19: the 17th phanniversary❤️🧡💛💚💙💜
october 25: pinof day
october 26-31 spooky week*/halloween baking/sister daniel’s birthday
*NOTE: spooky week expectations should be low in tour years. it’s unlikely we have a full spooky week, though possible to get baking!
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the only reason i have never been groomed online is because when i was 10 i befriended 17 year olds who taught me how to interact with older people online safely.
yall have got to stop being scared of children online and start actually teaching them the ropes. because if you are not up there with them then they're going to be completely alone with the creeps and have 0 metric for what is and is not an appropriate relationship. this also applies offline.
when i was in my first internet community-- which was a well-moderated space-- my parents were concerned i was Talking to Adults. what they meant by this was that lifetime channel had recently done a couple movies in a row about internet grooming and murder, where isolated young girls were lured to meet much older men (who had lied about their own age) in person.
despite being a child of the 80s whose parents, understandably, had no experiential basis for teaching internet safety, i knew internet safety. no real name, no real location, don't share your age more than a rough range if at all, etc. why did i know those things? because adults in my first fandom communities taught me and other kids who showed up in those forum and chat spaces. they moderated or deleted messages that shared too much, laid ground rules, shepherded us. i knew those people in community, not in isolation (another tip the forum babies were given).
when my parents tried to ban me from all fandom internet-- a thing that was 80% of my social experience, as a rural, autistic, homeschooled teenager-- i posted a farewell in the forum (after a whole day of angry crying and arguing). one sweet member of the forum was a 20-something mom with two toddlers, and she wrote a lovely letter for me to print for my parents explaining how the community was moderated and what a benefit it could be and offered her own email and phone number if they wanted to chat.
they didn't reach out to her, but that letter is why i was allowed to stay online. just having the offer and the explanation was enough to reassure my parents. i wasn't besties with this woman, just a casual friend in the same space, but we stayed in touch. i respected her and the advice she and other adults in that community gave and it kept me safe in other interactions going forward
i'm friends with many of the people from that community on facebook now. they're still friends with each other. that kind woman? i watched via internet as her kids graduated. she watched me get married and have my own kids.
one of my older friends in another fandom was in her thirties when i got my driver's license as a teen. she celebrated with me. she sent my oldest kids a baby shower box that contained blankets that became their special blankies they still have saved somewhere as teens.
those relationships have been some of the most important ones of my teen years. they were people who enjoyed fandom chats with me, but also invested in me as a PERSON and not just as a kid they were tolerating. in the right context of healthy friendship, their advice and perspective kept me safe and helped me grow.
of course there are red flags kids should be taught for any relationship, but to stigmatize friendships across generational gaps harms kids more than it helps them. kids NEED friends that cross those spaces.
like.they have a tour to promote. there is a tour to promote, out there, in this world. i cant imagine the city of hartford has improved all that much in the last week. and yet. piss
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like.they have a tour to promote. there is a tour to promote, out there, in this world. i cant imagine the city of hartford has improved all that much in the last week. and yet. piss
i feel like if we bait dnp in the correct way they will tell us if they slept in the same bed the day they met or if phil gave dan the couch/guest room
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