Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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i think my favorite part of the new podcast ep was phil saying he didn’t blink like dan was saying something boring and when dan, immediately following the “i didn’t!”, asks why he blinked phil saying “‘cause it was boring!”
Hello. The long awaited breakdown of my sims 4 phasement build has arrived.
You may be wondering: how the fuck did she build that? And the answer is simple: I am crazy. Also, there are a lot of fun tricks to building in the sims (without custom content!) that I learned leading up to this, and even along the way! So, if ye dare: join me below this read more, which is a warning because this is gonna be a long fuckin' post.
This game is not good. I do not recommend this game as a building engine. There are so many problems. This creation is an exercise in self-control (none), creativity, and working against restraints. And most of all, perseverance, because this game/build tried to kill me every step of the way. I cannot emphasize enough how much this creation was something I felt compelled to do and not leisurely. Much like any artist may feel about their work at times. I underwent a Victor Frankenstein-like state to do this. Do not try this at home!!!!
My TOOLbox....
First disclaimer: this build uses no custom content! Which is a little crazy of me. But there are absolutely no user-created items in this game. It uses pretty much all DLC though, and many debug/live edit items. (I do not condone the purchasing of DLC as EA is an evil company and also charges way too much for it). I have a total of two mods installed, both of which simply make using cheats a whole lot easier- they are primarily UI mods that utilize base game code.
These mods are T.O.O.L. and Better BuildBuy: Organized Debug, both by TwistedMexi.
TOOL pretty much lets you rescale, move, and rotate items (in any axis). Generally I use in-game commands first (ie moveobjects on, allow free item placement/not snapping to grid/to overlap with other item hitboxes), and controls such as alt to move and rotate items into place on the horizontal axes, or [ ] keys to scale roughly before i try entering in numbers. without the elevate and scale features on TOOL, the dioramas absolutely would not have been possible because they allow for the level of precision i needed. It also lets you change the color of lights in build mode!
Better BuildBuy pretty much just organizes all the debug items and makes them automatically visible, and also sets building cheats to default so you don't have to turn them on every time you launch the game.
The Process
In general, my process for creating this build was first to gather references, and focus on one area at a time. I would sometimes have to collect references again when I was in the middle of building it, or starting a new section, such as the dioramas. If you're curious, here are screenshots I used as reference!
This took... so much time. I wish I had kept track of how long but it has to be at least 40 hours. It's hard to estimate based on what the EA launcher says, though, because there were many instances (like nearly every time i played) of the game just.. refusing to close? I would save, and then separately hit exit (bc i had learned my lesson) and it would just.. freeze. Get a white overlay. I could not exit out with the x or with my taskbar, i would have to get task manager to kill it, and I couldn't always be bothered so idk how many of those are ghost hours.
I had a lot of fun getting creative with my items. I spent most of the time combing through the item catalog, and oftentimes would return to an item later and replace it with something I found on accident that would work better. There are also a lot of things I tried out that didn't make the final cut, or funny moments along the way.
Some in-progress screenshots:
Okay now that some of those fun screenshots are out of the way, let's go section by section and see what some of these items are! (and you will see the effort i put into each graphic diminish over time)(some of them are kind of big canvases/details get small so you may need to click on them & zoom in)
Hard Launch Set
I made the panel with a set of walls behind the dividers, in order to get the purple glow effect. Despite these being the actual functional part, of course, I had to include the set of neon lights behind the set that they showed in the tour, which currently just hit the back of that wall where there is nothing lol.
And last but not least on the Hard Launch set,
Richard!
Phedsheet themed video area
Here's the little corner that the monitor, camera, and lights are in-- and, at least in the tour video, this fucking ladder. I spent so long trying to figure out this ladder. Please observe a crashout over said ladder, and then the miracle that the sims gods bestowed upon me? Literally the next day? I don't know how that happened.
Admin corner
Couch/philm club section
I'm aware the bow looks dumb on the axolotl i just think it's cute okay
Dioramas
These took up the most time of everything, I think. Because each is like its own room but I ALSO have to make it tiny. Despite being a pain in the ass these were a lot of fun.
This was the very last piece of the build that I finished, so it feels fitting to end on it.
This has been a wild ride and I still miss building it sometimes. If there are any particular parts or things I missed that you're curious about, please feel free to ask! I am absolutely willing to elaborate or deconstruct bits like a sort of dissection. I very nearly broke image limit on this post tbh. Also if you want to see this lot for yourself, it's up in the gallery! Titled, as you may have guessed, "The Phasement."
And here, as a bonus for coming this far.. my descent into madness:
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nothing prepared me for the intimacy of phil knowing dan has a birth mark on his back. like yeah of course he knows but the fact that dan himself was confused cause it’s a part of himself he can’t see…yet phil has observed
post hiatus pre hl dan was so interesting bc that bitch would literally go “phil eats ass” like he was telling us the time but the moment phil asks “when do you dream about me?” he starts to blush stutter sweat shake voice quivering etc.
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god. they're gonna play the beginning of the pinof kiss and then RIGHT before they kiss on screen dnp are gonna come on stage going WOAH WOAH WOAH TURN THAT OFF and we're all gonna die aren't we
i don't like this new game where we hand deliver them fun new ideas to ruin our day
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