you can call me blue or lux! ⋅ 26⋅ he/neopronouns ⋅ ⚥⚣
new sideblog for an old phannie. interacts from @gayassbird about / tags
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Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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how is it that the youtube top comments section is so normal about the fourth wall and and the patreon top comments section is full of the most rancid RPF hating normies ive ever seen 😠like what are we doing here girlies. you pay for the phatreon. how do you not understand this.
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VID 1: Dan's VYou - On a scale of 1 to Ryan Ross, how much do you like milk (2012)
D: [laughing] No!
VID 2: Phil's YouNow - October 20th, 2012
P: Umm... yeah, don't read that thing about us eating skin.
D: [laughs]
P: Or Dan eats- I- I stop read- like Dan found it hilarious, but I just stopped reading halfway through.
D: I was just sat there, LOL-ing.
P: It made me feel sick. I think there's a certain line that shouldn't be crossed.
D: In like the third YouTube video I made, I made that joke that I kidnapped you-
P: Yeah.
D: ‘Cause you were YouTube famous, and I was gonna skin you. So, there's a GIF of me going ‘Your skin's gonna taste good’ from this YouTube video.
P: [Disbelieved stuttering] What- Like who?
D: And someone posted it under a screenshot-
P: Who thought of that?
D: Of this really horrible fanfiction that you shouldn't read- [unintelligible]
P: No, I don't even know why I-
D: I just thought it was the funniest thing.
P: I don't even know why I brought it up. D-don't... I don't know why I brought it up. Don't read it.
D: I encourage the worst sense of humour.
P: You do! You're- you're a bad influence on everyone.
D: Don't say BURMA!
VID 3: Dan and Phil vs. Tumblr
D: Phil, I don't think it would be right for us to go through Tumblr without acknowledging the hard work of the fanfiction writing community.
P: Oh no.
D: There's nothing wrong with fanfiction. It's a creative hobby.
P: It is.
D: Would you rather your daughter was into creative reading and writing, or snorting crack off a hobo.
P: There's some creepy stuff out there, Dan.
D: Let's find a creepy one. Okay, here's one called ‘The Skin Fic’.
P: Oh no.
VID 4: THE NOT-MILK CHALLENGE
P: Dan?
D: [offscreen] Hello?
P: Will you be my milk assistant?
D: [offscreen] Excuse me? W- What're we doing? Recreating ‘The Milk Fic’ or something?
P: No!
D: [laughs offscreen]
P: Just come sit down!
VID 5: THE TRUE PACIFISTS - Dan and Phil play: Undertale #10 (THE END)
D: Are we typing this like a fanfiction, right? Just like [creepy voice] ‘You look cute.’
P: [imitating noise]
D: [creepy voice] ‘Then she kisses you. Then you rub butts.’
P: [laughs]
D: [creepy voice] ‘Then you get in the bath and break out the milk-’ no, okay-
P: Oh my god, oh my god.
D: That was a bit too fast. I went from naught to 100 too quick.
P: Wow, you alright now?
D: I'm okay. I just need to-
P: Whew!
D: Get my head out of Wattpad.
VID 6: Dan's YouNow - May 30th, 2017
D: ‘Have you heard of ‘The Hat Fic’?’ I'm just gonna stop reading the chat for a bit.
VID 7: some bloopers from phil is not on fire 9
D: ‘Dan, you're a hamster. Phil, you're a gallon of milk. Traumatize us!’
P: [laughs] No! 100% no!
VID 8: Dan and Phil are Dating Boys
P: ‘Wants to write romantic novels.’
D: Oh my god, he's a Wattpad-er.
P: Oh my god!
D: [laughs]
P: He got out a fountain pen, and wrote the first ever ‘Milk Fic’.
D: Oh! J-
P: Oh! I'm sorry! I regret-
D: Jesus, Phil.
P: regret it.
D: [shows glass of milk]
P: Oh, god! [laughs]
D: Alright, stand up. Let's- let's do this-
P: Kneel! Sorry, I'm sorry!
D: I forgot! Oh my god!
VID 9: Reading My Gay Fanfiction!
P: There's currently tens of thousands of fanfictions about me. Which I still find wild. What am I up to in all those universes? Am I still dying? I swear I was dying in a lot of those. And let's not mention any sunburns or hamsters. Anyway!
VID 10: Dan and Phil React to Phan Twitter 4
D: The fact that it worked, I would be like ‘I’ve used my token in life.’
P: Yes.
D: You know there’s only so many times where something real stupid is gonna work-
P: I mean when you got a hamster, it’s gonna go in a crack. That’s the problem.
dnp mentioning fic p2: dan correcting people on their fic headcanons (2011 -> 2012) [part 1]
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
VID 1: when you see a slash fiction involving you, do you read it as if it were you or a different person
Um... not that I do that very often, but um... I don't know like i- it's hard because y'know I would... pretend that it's like me, but some of them are just like... there are- there are things that are just slightly wrong.
VID 1: Dan's VYou - what is your opinion on slash fiction and have you ever found one of yourself (2011)
Umm... yes, I have found the slash fiction and the ones of me. In fact, I think I've read most of the ones with me in them. I don't know what that says about me- Actually, I don't know why I would've read the ones that aren't about me with other people. I think that's a better explanation.
But uh- yes, I have read most of the ones that are about me and- no it doesn't creep me out. I, you know... I don't wanna say it's hilarious, because I think some people have put their hearts and souls into these, and you know I don't want to mock them. But, um, I think some of them are actually really well written. I mean I was reading a couple of them and I was like, 'this person has a really promising career in writing ahead of them'. I mean, some of them were downright smut, don't get me wrong. Disgusting, but hilarious. I'm sure some people definitely appreciated it.
But, yeah some of them were like really romantic and stuff and I was like 'wow I'm getting into this- wait, wait, wait wait'. Not in that way, creepers. But, you know, there's nothing wrong with it- Well, there might be, but y'know. [Mumbling] Gotta end this question.
VID 2: Phil's VYou - Have you ever found slash fiction of yourself (2011)
Yes. It was both disturbing and hilarious at the same time. And scarily well written.
VID 3: Dan's VYou - Do you like reading what people think about you or do you avoid it (2012)
Um... Well I probably should avoid it... But, I like knowing what people are saying about me. And that's not healthy [laughs].
Looking for 1 gold m&g ticket for either of the San Francisco hard launch shows..(honestly if Seattle popped up I'd go for that also) I know it's a long shot and I've made this post before but I figure this time I'll actually tag @phandom-exchange <3
I know everyone wants them very badly so I am not special, but I really want to get my handmade book of basically I'm gay signed and would also get to tell them I did the sims studio.. I do have one silver ticket for the 13th in SF that I could trade (in addition to the difference in cost).
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
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this is as good a time as any to remind people: if you love a fic, you can download it! ao3 has a wonderful button just for that! i have a beautiful set of folders with all of my ao3 bookmarks saved downloaded to my laptop forever.
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
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i think there's a big difference between "does a celebrity have the right to read the RPF you write about them" and "does a celebrity have the right to read the RPF you write about them to hundreds of thousands of people on their podcast, many of whom might feel quite negatively towards RPF" and there's also a difference between "do they have the right to" and "is that a nice thing to do that will make the fic writers in their audience happy"
us against the world, together we'll survive @bluebirdlester - Tumblr Blog | Tumlook
