Phello Everyphannie! Check out the latest statistics dump from the phan photocards survey below! It's been out for 9 days now, so here are the promised numbers. I'm not done yet, I'll be continuing work for a long while still! You can see and contribute to my list of ongoing research questions at the end of this post.
Methodology, Sample size, and Disclaimers
I'm working with a sample of 345 responses, 1196 packs, and 5987 cards in this data! (See below for why that's not divisible by 5).
If someone claimed to open Y number of packs, but their listed cards did not add up to Y*5 and no explanation was provided as to why, I assumed there was a mistake and their response was discarded. 69 responses had to be discarded for this reason :( If it's any comfort, I didn't manage to enter my own pulls correctly on the first try either :P
Please note that I'm not a statistics professional, I'm operating on the level of an AP Statistics class I took like 8 years ago, Google searches, and nerd curiosity. I'm lowkey stealing valor from the true phannies in STEM, so kind corrections are welcome!
The below percentages are not necessarily exactly the odds that were used in production, it's just based on the data I have gathered. Everything here has a margin of error and uncertainty. You can help minimize that by submitting your card pulls to the survey!
Number of Packs
The average phannie responding to my survey opened 3.47 packs. Median 2, mode 1, max 30.
Phannies who bought more packs were more likely to be plugged into the phandom enough to find this survey, probably. Special thank you to everyone meticulously logging 50+ cards here-- that can't have been quick, but I really appreciate it!
Click below to open the rest of the Day 9 report!
Card Rarity
To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.
Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)
Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.
Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.
I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.
Errors
Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.
Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)
Individual Card Odds
Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.
The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.
The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!
There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.
Questions still to answer:
I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.
How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?
I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!
There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.
Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)
Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.
You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.
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What does "moving an appointment forward" mean? - Results
At the time of writing this there are in total 264 responses to the form with participants native to the following 22 (!!!) languages: Arabic, Bengali, Danish, Dutch/Flemish, English, Finnish, French, German, Hebrew, Hindi, Hungarian, Icelandic, Italian, Malay, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Slovak, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish.
If you haven't filled out the form yet but want to, you can still do so here. To maintain some form of scientific integrity please do that before reading further (<- me pretending that all of us having heard dnp talk about this hasn't already biased us in any way <3). If there are any significant changes in the future/new interesting input I might add it in a reblog.
If you're only here for the overall results, here's the result from all participants:
Question: What do you personally think "moving an appointment forward" means?
The cool thing about this is, it matches the results from Moli @tetrapaec's poll with 680 votes almost perfectly + I found some random survey on reddit with over 2,000 votes that also came in at about the 70/30 split.
If you want to go deeper (and it goes so much deeper) (maybe I overdid it a little), keep reading under the cut :]
Okay hi, now that I have your attention, here's the linguistic theory behind this (because yes, there is theory, this isn't just some random misunderstanding on phil's part, this has been studied).
To keep it very short, in English there are two perceptions of time (Dan actually kind of got that right in the podcast):
moving-time: we are stationary and time moves along us (like a conveyor belt) -> if something is moved forward (in the direction of the movement of time) it happens earlier
moving-ego: time is stationary (like a road) and we move along it -> if something is moved forward (in the direction of our movement) it happens later (McGlone & Harding, 1998)
Why is this relevant? Because that shows that there isn’t really a right or wrong, it genuinely is linguistically ambiguous.
What I was mainly interested in was how a) the native language of participants and b) for English native speakers the home country affects how you understand that phrase.
Alright, let’s get into it.
The main question asked was: “What do you personally think "moving an appointment forward" means?”
With the options:
The appointment is preponed (it happens earlier than planned).
The appointment is postponed (it happens later than planned).
I’m not sure
Results - English
(Note: the percentages you can see are for within the rows, to showcase the differing opinions within the language (or country in this case))
I got by far the most responses from US and UK English speakers (apologies to the not explicitly listed English speaking countries, that's fully on me trying to make that form in like 20 minutes, I didn't expect that many responses lol).
US-Americans are more split on this than people from the UK. This is interesting in that dnp are, well, British, so the most interesting number for their context specifically is the 85% of UK English speakers that would disagree with them and say that "moving sth forward" means it's earlier.
Australians on the other hand seem to agree much more on what that phrase means, but there were also significantly less participants.
Not shown in this table but also interesting is that 9% (10 participants) of US-Americans said they hadn’t heard that phrase before. Only one other English native speaker outside the US picked that option. Filtering out the responses of those people only minorly changes the result of the question above.
There has been an experiment on this phenomenon specifically that found that English native speakers tend to favour the moving-time perspective (McGlone & Harding, 1998), which is in line with the results of this study. However, the methodology of that study isn’t comparable with this one (it may surprise you, but they didn’t just haphazardly throw a badly thought through form at people) + it’s from almost 30 years ago. So it’s nice to see that at least the tendency of our data is the same, although our results appear to show a stronger lean towards the moving time perspective.
Some general sentiments from the comments:
You should always clarify what the new time is.
“Moving forward” reminds of moving the time forward for daylight savings.
No one says “move forward” just use “move up”.
“Move forward” is very clearly earlier???
Just fucking clarify the new time
Other languages
The results of participants with a native language other than English were 4% for “not sure”, 42% for “later” and 54% for “earlier” with 76 responses in total. However, those percentages don’t really tell us much because the responses were fairly heterogeneous between different languages and much more homogenous within the languages. That’s why I split the results into four groups.
If there was any background info given that is specific to the native language, I put them under the respective tables (+ some results from a review paper that I found (Feist & Duffy, 2023))
Languages with at least 2 participants that largely (>75%) agree that forward means earlier
German:
“This seems to be a common thing in other languages but I never experienced any confusion when someone in Germany said that a Termin must be moved forward. We would say. Der Termin muss nach vorne verschoben werden.“
One notable thing about German in this survey is that (after English) it is the language with by far the most responses and all 19 of them agree. This is in line with previous studies (compiled in that review paper) that show that up 95% of Germans think that way.
Languages with at least 2 participants that largely (>75%) agree that forward means later
Spanish:
“In English I would 100% assume it means move an hour later, but thinking about it, in Spanish we say "adelantar la cita" which literally means "move the appointment forward" and it does mean moving it earlier”
“in spanish "mover [un evento] para más adelante" (to move an event forward) means to postpone but "adelantar [un evento]" means to prepone.”
Swedish:
“I think i'm influenced by how we express things in my native language here. Moving an event forward usually means forwards in time (so later), we would say "we'll put this earlier/meet earlier" or something”
A study cited in that review paper supports this and showed that 80% of Swedish speakers have this linguistic perspective on time.
Languages with mixed responses
Dutch:
“I guess the English translation of the Dutch saying is 'were bringing/pulling it forward' which language wise paints a more 'moving something closer to you' picture. Similar when an appointment is being postponed one talks about pushing something away. So I guess the image that the words used provoques make it so that's hard to misunderstand which way the meeting is going.”
A note on that from the review paper mentioned above which explains our results pretty perfectly and that I am citing very incorrectly:
“Belgian speakers of Dutch tended to adopt the Moving Ego and Moving Time perspectives at chance levels in response to the construction voorwaarts verplaatst (moved forward), speakers of Dutch from the Netherlands tended to prefer the Moving Time perspective in response to another translation of the probe, naar voren verplaatst.”
Finnish:
“I dont think we in finnish have this saying quite the same. I think you can say ”siirtää eteenpäin” (move forward) but it feels weird idk if anyone says that and i defo would take it as postponing but it would be strange. Usually we would say ”siirtää myöhempään/aikaisempaan” (move for later/for earlier) or ”siirtää lähemmäksi/kauemmaksi” (move closer/farther). I can see both ways but personally to me forward is linearly to further from me.”
Languages with only 1 response
Mandarin Chinese:
Not listed but also interesting:
“grew up bilingual eng/mandarin chi - it might be ambiguous in english but in mandarin it's a lot clearer, we say things like "2 weeks front" (literal translation) to mean "2 weeks ago/before" or "one year behind" for a year later. also i advocate for just saying what the new date/time is”
Again, this is in line with a study that showed that 85% of Mandarin Chinese speakers adopt the moving time perspective (aka forward = earlier).
Language families
Because there were only so few responses for many languages I tried to look if there were any patterns within language families.
Within all other language families (Romance, Germanic, Uralic, Indo-Aryan) there weren’t any clear patterns. Plus, special shoutout to Malay, Tamil and Turkish that didn’t have any close language relatives (from what I could find in my brief Wikipedia research at least).
If you have any insight on any other languages, please sound off in the tags/add to this post! I'm very curious to hear more about that.
Oh god there is more
I also asked if people had worked in a corporate setting before. If you filter out the people that haven’t worked in a corporate setting the results shift slightly towards more people saying it means earlier (69 -> 74%) and for only the English ones from 75,5 -> 78%.
In conclusion
(and this sentiment was heavily echoed in the comments) you should probably just clarify the time when talking to someone instead of moving or pushing it anywhere. Especially when you’re working on an international level. But also, Phil is very clearly in the minority with thinking the way he does in the UK.
If you have made it this far you get a treat and that is a link to the google doc with all the results, including the comments. It's definitely worth looking through that. This sheet is linked to the form and will continue to be updated automatically. Feel free to download and use that data for whatever you want, just please tell me because I'm nosy.
References/further reading if you're interested
Feist, M. I., & Duffy, S. E. (2023). To each their own: A review of individual differences and metaphorical perspectives on time. Frontiers in Psychology, 14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1213719
McGlone, M. S., & Harding, J. L. (1998). Back (or forward?) to the future: The role of perspective in temporal language comprehension. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24(5), 1211–1223. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.24.5.1211
also sidenote that isn't really relevant to anything, but it's pretty damn cool how interested the phandom is in science! like, I'm not going to pretend this survey that i threw together in 20 min and that has a bunch of issues & my interpretation of the results as someone who has no clue about linguistics is the pinnacle of science BUT!!! people are interested in that! sooo many people participated! like i know people who write on a thesis and wish they had that many participants. so really what I'm saying is, thanks for indulging me, stay curious :]
And to end this, special shout out to my favourite comment:
“My friend send me this. I don’t know what’s going on. I just want to contribute to a scientific research. I’m scared it’s actually related to Dan and Phil. Wouldn’t be surprised. Hi Léna!“
here are my two possible answers. it can only be one or both of these.
1. vampire bite as sexual desire metaphor as phan proof gotcha question. flawless no notes
2. aggressive realism in hindsight answer: phil was getting dan home with his vampire strength and fretting the whole time about how dan’s shirt was covered in blood and phil’s the only one that knows how to do laundry in this house but also doesn’t have the period haver practice at getting blood out of clothes so he’s just focusing his anxieties on this shirt bloodstain and whether it will set and how to fix it because dan certainly can’t. and immediately goes to try to wash it as soon as dan is in bed
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Decided to try my hand at @unphortunate’s art challenge and omg this was so challenging but so fun??? So here’s me trying my hand at the styles of @starwbny, @insomniac-ink, @adziedoodlesphan, @lizardsmp3, @hollivens and @babystarrbunny (holy shit there were so many incredible phan artists to choose from)
The first rule of fandom is have fun. The second rule of fandom is find an enabler and become an enabler. Yes you should write that fic. What if it was even hornier? What if it was angstier? What if you wrote it just for me?
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
✓ Live Streaming✓ Interactive Chat✓ Private Shows✓ HD Quality✓ Free Actions
Free to watch • No registration required • HD streaming
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
✓ Live Streaming✓ Interactive Chat✓ Private Shows✓ HD Quality✓ Free Actions
Free to watch • No registration required • HD streaming
Biker jacket and collar turtleneck for bdsm movie. Cosplay for the death note musical. This is why they can never have stylists no stylist would ever be able to live up to their vision
