us against the world, together we'll survive

Card Rarity

To start us off: the Platinum Pheal accounts for 0.25% of all cards, or 1.76% of all rares in my sample. I have the odds of any random pack containing a Pheal at 1.25%.

Dan and Phil claimed that the Platinum is 1% of all rares in the most recent Patreon livestream, and I do believe that's the real odds-- less than 1% off seems like a reasonable margin of error. It's also entirely possible that people with Pheals are more likely than Pheal-less losers like me to want to brag about their cards on a survey, which would introduce some sampling bias. Keep this in mind when looking at the rest of the results :)

Dan and Phil common cards are equally likely this time around, but slighty less common than Phan common cards.

Rare cards make up 14.2% of the cards in the sample, and commons are 85.8%.

I do believe it's possible to get more than 1 rare card in a single 5 card pack (have had a couple of reports of that happening), but it's an unlikely event. If you have footage of yourself opening such a pack and are willing to share, please let me know! I'm trying to confirm the existence of such packs and make sure that my survey respondents aren't pranking me. I got exactly 1 rare in my 5 packs and secretly did all of this just to complain about my lack of card riches, surely people with such great luck are joking.

Errors

Manufacturer errors seem to be on the side of Phannies! 8 people reported getting 6 cards in a pack, while only 1 person reported getting 4 cards in a pack. In total, less than 1% of packs seem to have a quantity error.

Even better, 7 of the 8 of people that got 6 cards in a pack report that the error pack contained a duplicate holo selfie! (i.e. two wedding selfie cards or two vacation 2025 selfie cards)

Individual Card Odds

Overall, your odds of getting any particular Dan/Phil/Phan common card are about the same as any other Dan/Phil/Phan card within its group. The variance here looks pretty normal, and I don't think it represents an actual difference in likelihood of you getting, say, a Catboy Dan vs a Bunny Dan.

The only one that stands out to me here is the one with Dan bare shoulderedly clutching some kind of fabric to his chest, which I nicknamed "it's giving princess Diana". Also the Precious Baby Angels Duo, maybe? That one seems more normal than the Princess Dan card, but still a little low relative to other Phan cards.

The fact that there's no similarly less-common Phil card makes me suspect this is my fault, somehow. Is it a methodology error? Formula mistake somewhere in my spreadsheet? Entirely possible. I've checked everything I can, but the princess card count remains stubbornly 2.3 standard deviations from the mean. It's further away than any other card and, to me, within the realm of "weird outlier". If anyone better at statistics wants to take a crack at this or provide context, let me know in the replies and I'll give you raw numbers to work with!

There are much fewer rares to work with, both in terms of unique cards and number reported, so I'm less concerned about discrepancies here. It seems likely that a Phil clear is as rare as Dan clear, and the same is true within each of the other rare groups. Smaller sample sizes on these, though, remember that.

Questions still to answer:

I started collecting data on which shop people ordered their cards from a few days ago. I really should have done so from the beginning! When I have a little more data to work with, I want to see if there are any differences based on where the cards came from.

How diminishing are the returns in buying more and more packs? How many packs would you need, on average, to complete a 55 card set?

I want to give out luck superlatives and highlight some interesting pulls!

There is so much bullshit I could be doing with pivot tables here. Just you wait.

Send me your questions! I'll look into them for you :)

Please continue to submit your photocard pulls as they arrive! I'm having loads of fun with this, and with your help we can get even more accurate numbers.

You can keep track of updates and my shitposts about the project by checking out the #photocard survey tag on my blog.

i. bad idea right? - olivia rodrigo

yes, I know that he's my ex / but can't two people reconnect? i only see him as a friend / biggest lie I ever said

ii. mamma mia - meryl streep ver.

look at me now, will i ever learn? i don't know how, but i suddenly lose control there's a fire within my soul

iii. history - one direction

all of the rumors, all of the fights but we always find a way to make it out alive thought we were going strong / thought we were holding on aren't we?

iv. please please please - sabrina carpenter

heartbreak is one thing, my ego's another / i beg you, don't embarrass me, motherfucker, oh / please, please, please

v. fly on the wall - miley cyrus

don't you wish that you could be a fly on the wall? / a creepy little, sneaky little fly on the wall all my precious secrets, yeah, you'd know them all / don't you wish that you could be a fly on the wall?

vi. don't go breaking my heart - elton john & kiki dee

nobody told us / because nobody showed us and now it's up to us babe / oh, i think we can make it

vii. apple - charli xcx

i guess the apple don't fall far from the tree / 'cause I've been looking at you so long now i only see me

viii. we don't believe what's on tv - twenty one pilots

i need to know that when i fail you'll still be here 'cause if you stick around, i'll sing you pretty sounds and we'll make money selling your hair

ix. see you again - miley cyrus

the last time i freaked out / i just kept looking down i st-st-stuttered when you asked me what i'm thinking 'bout. felt like i couldn't breathe / you asked what's wrong with me? my best friend lesley said, "oh, she's just being miley" the next time we hang out, i will redeem myself / my heart, it can't rest 'til then oh-woah-woah i, i can't wait to see you again

x. enchanted - taylor swift

this night is sparklin', don't you let it go / i'm wonderstruck, blushin' all the way home i'll spend forever wonderin' if you knew / i was enchanted to meet you

xi. cruel summer - taylor swift

i snuck in through the garden gate / every night that summer just to seal my fate (Oh) and i scream, "for whatever it's worth / i love you, ain't that the worst thing you ever heard?"

xii. kaleidoscope - chappell roan

love is a kaleidoscope; how it works, I'll never know and even all the change, it's somehow all the same turn it to the left and right, colors shinin' in your eye and even upside down, it's beautiful somehow it's never just a shape alone, love is a kaleidoscope

xiii. girl, so confusing - charli xcx & lorde

well, honestly, i was speechless / when i woke up to your voice note you told me how you'd been feeling / let's work it out on the remix

xiv. terrible - dan & phil

☆

i havent shared anything like this before! this was built while i was listening to the tit preshow playlist a lot & rebuilding my phan playlist in 2025 from half-memories of my lost 2015 one. i realized i wanted two playlists: not just "dan and phil are in love", but "i love dan and phil" and all of the weird, complicated, messy feelings i have about that. artists/vibes mainly pulled from preshow playlists of both tatinof and tit, the two shows i've been to.

to describe the emotional arc here: there's that feeling of getting back into it, right? knowing "oh fuck. im gonna be so annoying about this thing i love." but as it is so often with phannies, then follows the reckoning. if i'm gonna be so back, what are the bad things i missed, and the bad things i didn't? do i have new rules now? there is such strangeness in parasocial trust, the knowing risk of heartbreak that comes with the territory.

i have very little memory of my first time meeting dan and phil, besides that i dropped tabinof corner-first on phil's foot, and dan was the first "stranger" i got to introduce myself to with a name i chose for myself. which really sums it all up, doesn't it? going to tit was a borderline religious experience for me. the relative emotional stability and maturity i've gained made it so different, and somehow so much more magical. something i really didn't expect.

despite the hundreds of hours i've spent imagining what it would be like to just hang out with them on a normal day, i will never have it. as much as i like to imagine, i don't know them when they're not working and they will never know me. that hurts, doesn't it? it fucking sucks. we've hurt each other and apologized. we've communicated wildly complex impressions of traumatic experiences at each other despite having two minutes of conversation in 9 years. we've loved and known each other in ways people couldn't in generations before.