💱 Target levels and forecast for the week 04.03. – 08.03.
We are in for a challenging week. ⠀ NFP: signs of continued strength in the labor market are inevitable, and a strong economy could lead to a resurgence in inflation. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7% and wage growth is expected to slow. ⠀ Powell testimony: before NFP, it is worth listening to the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House committee on Wednesday and the Senate committee on Thursday. ⠀ ECB meeting: no change in policy is expected, investors will wait for the magic mantra to be repeated that it is too early to discuss rate cuts. ⠀ Oil prices: OPEC+ extended oil production cuts for Q2 in an attempt to prevent a global surplus and support prices. Commentary on this topic has garnered speculation on major benchmarks, but within reasonable limits. ⠀ Fans of Asian assets are advised not to miss the publication of China's CPI and PPI tomorrow morning, we are waiting for the market reaction on Monday. ⠀ Recall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time): ⠀ Tue, 05 USD: Services, composite PMI (14:45); ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Employment, Prices (15:00); API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30) GBP: Services, composite, PMI (09:30) ⠀ Wed, 06 AUD: GDP, Retail Sales (00:30) USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (13:15); Fed Chair Powell Testifies; JOLTs Job Openings (15:00); Crude Oil Inventories (+Cushing) (15:30); Beige Book (19:00) ⠀ Thu, 07 AUD: Trade Balance (00:30) CNY: Exports, Imports, Trade Balance (03:00) EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision (13:15); Press Conference (13:45); President Lagarde Speaks (15:00) USD: Initial Jobless Claims, Exports, Imports, Nonfarm Productivity, Trade Balance (13:30); Fed Chair Powell Testifies (15:00); ⠀ Fri, 08 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30); WASDE Report (17:00)
