#ufc296

A dull fight but funny watching Covington shit the bed and Leon just fuck with him for 25 minutes. Edwards chewed up Colby's left leg with kicks. Ate up his middle sections with straight kicks to the gut and the occasional round kick. He really wanted to wrestle with Colby. He would defend a takedown or get up from one of the few Colby managed to get and then immediately duck in for a double leg or a deep underhook and start looking for his own. He did get Colby down once or twice but ended up on the bottom a couple times trying to take the back.

It’s always interesting to see how fighters get old. The physical declines are obvious. Slower, can’t take punches, etc (Tony Ferguson). Some just can’t see the openings anymore and can’t pull the trigger (Anderson Silva). Some can’t see things coming anymore (Kevin Lee). Some just degrade into the barest of styles, pairing down their approach to the point of parody (Fedor becoming a gunslinger for the last 5-8 years of his career). Some change completely because the lose confidence in their A game and end up looking like a deer in the headlights (Colby).

I'm good man. hope you are too.

296 is weird. Lots of people coming off long layoffs or have clearly lost several steps.

Edwards over Covington. I don't know what to expect of Colby but I'm not expecting him to be able to close range with Edwards if Edwards comes out like he did against Usman the 3rd time around. Masvidal historically completely shuts down against wrestlers if he doesn't KO them instantly (askren) and before that the last non-faded or undersized welterweight he actually beat was....Stun Gun or Bryan Barberena. Can't bank on any of that.

Pantoja over Royval. We have already seen this one. If the Moreno fight didn't take what's left of Pantoja's prime from him, there's not much I see Royval being able to do that Pantoja can't manage.

Wonderboy over Shavkat. This is probably my underdog pick. For as good as Shavkat has been, this feels like a bad style clash for him imo. Not insurmountable at all but Wonderboy is still a sharp shooter from range. Shavkat has the build and the finishing ability to cause serious problems for Thompson but in a 3 round fight, I'll pick Wonderboy for the upset.

Paddy over Tony. Paddy is not good but he's young, scrappy and athletic. Expecting that to be enough to grind down Tony at this point. If Paddy was less durable, I'd be more confident in Tony being able to pull an upset but from what I've seen, I don't have faith in it.