As the calendar turns toward July, one of the market’s more consistent seasonal tendencies is once again coming into focus: NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally. This seasonal trade typically spans from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June through the ninth trading day of July and has historically delivered impressive results.

Since 1985, NASDAQ has gained an average of 2.5% during this 12-trading-day period, with a median advance of 2.9%. The rally has produced gains in 32 of the last 41 years, a success rate of 78%. While not every year has been positive, the historical tendency has been remarkably resilient across a wide variety of market environments, including bull markets, bear markets, recessions, and recoveries.

Several of the strongest advances occurred during periods of heightened uncertainty. NASDAQ surged 10.4% during the 1999 midyear rally, climbed 10.0% in 2000, and gained 9.6% in 2016. More recently, the rally posted gains of 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, and 3.8% in 2024. Last year’s rally generated a respectable 3.3% advance.

The pattern is likely driven by a combination of quarter-end portfolio adjustments, the start of a new quarter, fresh capital inflows, and generally favorable investor and trader sentiment heading into earnings season. Whatever the underlying cause, the tendency has proven durable over four decades.

레버리지 ETF에 투자하려고 상품을 찾아보면 2배, 3배는 물론이고 인버스, 섹터별, 지수별로 수십 가지가 쏟아져 나와 어떤 것을 골라야 할지 혼란스럽습니다. 같은 레버리지라도 추종 지수와 배율에 따라 수익률과 리스크가 완전히 달라지기 때문에, 종류별 특성을 정확히 파악하는 것이 수익의 출발점입니다. 레버리지 ETF는 크게 추종 지수(국내·해외·섹터), 배율(2배·3배), 방향(롱·인버스)으로 구분되며, 각각의 조합에 따라 투자 전략과 위험도가 결정됩니다. 정의: “레버리지 ETF 종류”는 기초 지수의 일일 수익률을 2배 또는 3배로 추종하는 상품군을 말하며, KOSPI·나스닥·섹터지수 등 추종 대상과 배율, 그리고 상승 추종(롱) 또는 하락 추종(인버스) 방향에 따라 분류되어 각각 다른 투자 목적과…

TQQQ: Materials Outperformance Potential (Score Improve)

tqqq stock price Introduction:

Unquestionably, within the vibrant investing landscape, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have established a prominent position. One such ETF that has piqued investor interest is the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ). This blog post aims to shed light on the TQQQ stock price and elucidate the factors that influence its trajectory.

Understanding TQQQ:

Initially, prior to dissecting the complexities of the TQQQ stock price, it's crucial to grasp what this ETF encompasses. The ProShares UltraPro QQQ or TQQQ as it's widely known is a leveraged ETF. Its goal is to deliver investment results corresponding to three times (3x) the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. Essentially, this implies if there's a 1% increase in NASDAQ-100 Index in a day, then ideally, TQQQ should experience an approximate 3% rise and vice versa. However, due to fees and other elements this relationship can fluctuate.

Factors Influencing 'TQQQ' Stock Price:

1) Performance of NASDAQ-100 Index:

Primarily being a leveraged ETF tracking NASDAQ-100 index's daily performance; naturally any fluctuations in this index have a direct bearing on TQQQ's price. Consequently investors must closely monitor companies listed on this index as their individual performances collectively contribute towards its movement.

2) Market Volatility:

Given its 3x leverage nature, unsurprisingly TQQQ tends to be more volatile than non-leveraged funds. During periods of heightened market volatility or rapid swings in prices - which are not uncommon among tech stocks dominating NASDAQ - returns can deviate significantly from expectations based on triple leverage.

3) Interest Rates:

Additionally changes in interest rates can also exert influence over leveraged ETFs like TQQQ. Rising interest rates generally render borrowing more expensive for companies which may lead them towards lower profitability hence impacting their stock prices and subsequently influencing indices like NASDAQ-100.

Conclusion:

To sum up investing in leveraged funds like ProShares UltraPro QQQ necessitates comprehension of how leverage operates and awareness about associated risks along with vigilant monitoring of market trends affecting underlying assets i.e., primarily tech stocks listed on NASDAQ-100 Index here.

While potential gains can be substantial due to triple leverage during favorable market conditions; inversely losses too can multiply rapidly during downturns making such investments riskier compared to traditional non-leveraged ones.

For me?

Based on these two indicators, do we think TQQQ will close up or down tomorrow? Let's look at some data from today:

- The PPO is 4.84 and the PPO Signal is 4.19. This means that the PPO is above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum. - The RSI is 70.12, and the RSI-based MA is 68.38. This means that the RSI is above its moving average, indicating strength in the uptrend. - Both the PPO and the RSI crossed over their MA 7 days ago. This means that both indicators confirmed a bullish trend reversal at that time. - TQQQ peaked 4 days ago at 36.66 and has pulled back to 34.75 today. This means that TQQQ has experienced some profit-taking after reaching a new high.

Based on this information, we can make some predictions:

- TQQQ is likely to continue its uptrend in the long term, as both indicators show positive momentum and trend. - TQQQ may face some resistance near its previous high of 36.66, as it is also close to the upper Bollinger Band (a volatility indicator that shows two standard deviations above and below a 20-day simple moving average). - TQQQ may also experience some volatility in the short term, as it is near the overbought level of 70 on the RSI. This could trigger some selling pressure or consolidation before breaking out higher.

Therefore, our best guess is that TQQQ will close up tomorrow, but not by much. We may see some sideways movement or a minor pullback before TQQQ resumes its upward trajectory. Of course, this is not a guarantee, and we should always use other tools such as stop-loss orders and risk management to protect our positions.

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Based on its RSI and PPO, do you think FNGU will close up or down tomorrow? Today, the PPO is 8.50 and the PPO signal is 7.82. The RSI is 70.30, and the RSI-based MA is 72.86. Both the PPO and the RSI crossed over their MA 7 trading days ago. FNGU peaked 4 days ago at 16.28 and has pulled back to 153.36 today.

There is no definitive answer to this question, as technical indicators are not always reliable and can be affected by various factors, such as news events, market sentiment, and trading volume. However, based on the given data, one possible interpretation is that FNGU is still in an uptrend but may be losing some momentum and facing some resistance. The PPO is positive and above its signal line, which suggests that the bullish trend is intact. However, the PPO has been declining slightly in recent days, which indicates that the rate of change in price is slowing down. The RSI is high and above its MA, which suggests that FNGU is overbought and may be due for a pullback. However, the RSI has not reached the extreme level of 80 or above, which would indicate a strong overbought condition. The RSI has also been following its MA closely, which suggests that there is no divergence between price and momentum.