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By inflating numbers and narrowing definitions, Heritage promotes a false link between transgender identity and violence in its push for the
Dell Cameron and Andrew Couts at Wired:
In the wakeĀ ofĀ Charlie Kirkās killing, the Republican policy apparatus went immediately to work. The Heritage Foundation, which publishedĀ Project 2025, and itsĀ spinoff, the Oversight Project, issued aĀ callĀ for the Federal Bureau of Investigation to designate āTransgender Ideology-Inspired Violent Extremism,ā or TIVE, as a domestic terrorism threat category. The push comes as President Donald Trump just signed anĀ executive orderĀ that seeks to mobilize federal law enforcement against vaguely defined domestic terror networks.
The Heritage Foundation and Oversight Project document, which defines ātransgender ideologyā as āa belief that wholly or partially rejects fundamental science about human sex being biologically determined before birth, binary, and immutable," grounds its policy recommendations in a startling claim: āExperts estimate that 50% of all major (non-gang related) school shootings since 2015 have involved or likely involved transgender ideology.ā
When WIRED asked for the data behind this claim, the Oversight Project did not respond; the Heritage Foundation pointed to aĀ tweetĀ from one of its vice presidents, Roger Severino, claiming that ā50% of major (non-gang) school shootings since 2015ā involve a transgender shooter or trans-related motive. Severino also lays out what appears to be his entire dataset: eight shootings, four of which, he claims, involve āa trans-identifying shooter and/or a likely trans-ideology related motivation.ā
The data tell a different story.
Since 2015, at least four dozen shootings have taken place on school grounds, according to data from theĀ K-12 School Shooting Database, which has tracked every incident involving a gun on school grounds since 1966. Only three perpetrators in the databaseāthe 2019 shooter at STEM School Highlands Ranch in Colorado and the Covenant School shooter in Nashville in 2023 among themāhave been credibly identified in public reporting as transgender or undergoing gender-affirming care. Nashville police concluded the shooter there was not motivated by a clear political or ideological agenda, but prioritizedĀ notoriety and infamy. In Colorado, investigators say one of the shooters, a transgender boy, citedĀ bullying and long-standing mental health strugglesĀ as motivations.
In an August shooting, a 23-year-old individual opened fire outside Annunciation Catholic Church in Minneapolis. The shooter had legally changed their name and written about conflict over gender identity, but there is no public evidence they consistently identified as transgender, making classification uncertain. Police say the attack was fueled by hostility toward Jews, Christians, and minorities, along with a quest for notoriety. Prosecutors added the animus was sweeping, saying the shooter āexpressed hate towards almost every group imaginable.ā
[...]
In other words, Heritageās ā50 percentā claim is not just unsupported, it appears misleading by design, arbitrary in scope, and unscientific at its core.
āA methodology that limits the pool of potential observations in this way suggests researchers have a predetermined outcome in mind,ā Cravens and Carroll Rivas say. āIt's a method that suggests the researchers are committing an error called selecting on the dependent variableāchoosing a sample that ensures the study will produce the desired outcome. In combination with the use of ātrans ideology,ā this suggests that the desired outcome is the further scapegoating and demonization of transgender people.ā
Heritage reaches its 50 percent figure by shrinking the universe of school shootings to a hand-picked few. Severino first rules out incidents rooted in crime, personal disputes, or workplace grievances. He then defines āmajorā school shootings as those he says are intended to āsend a public message.ā Applying those filters, Heritage crops down decadesā worth of incidents into fewer than 10 casesāa sample small enough that even a few shooters with one or two shared traits can be made to look like half. Broader databases, which count school shootings by more consistent criteria, show dozens of incidents each year and make clear that Heritageās figures rest on a frame built to exaggerate, not measureāto reflect a narrative, not reality.
The Heritage Foundation, a right-wing stink tank responsible for foisting Project 2025 upon the American populace, pumped out bogus cherrypicked stats to serve up a false ātrans shooter epidemicā narrative to justify classifying trans people as āextremistsā.
See Also:
LGBTQ Nation: Rightwing organization twists data to claim that half of mass shooters are transgender
The Advocate: Heritage Foundation uses false data to smear trans people as school shooters
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ID START ; a 7 striped flag, colored dark blue, blue, yellow, white, yellow, blue, and dark blue. in the center is four red interlocking rings, outlined in white. ; END ID
autive !
a plural term for introtives who are an introtive of, influenced by, or connected to, the system's autism.
ID START ; a 6 striped flag, colored dark purple, purple, magenta, pink, light pink, and rose. in the center is four rose colored interlocking rings, outlined in dark purple. ; END ID
kinktive / kinktroject !
a plural term for introtives who are an introject or -tive of a kink.
kink + tive
from "kink" and the suffix "tive"
requested by a headmate, coined by us
id template by me.
we've seen this term used before, but cannot find an official coining or flag, so this is our attempt at a flag & an unofficial coining!