I think so. I think itâs an extremely dangerous situation. Most people, even people who donât seem concerned about nuclear weapons, will, when asked, acknowledge that itâs almost inconceivable that they wonât be used in their childrenâs lifetime, or their grandchildrenâs lifetime, either by accident or by intention. We donât have an example of weapons invented for war that arenât used. They are used. The most recent research on nuclear winter thatâs appeared in many scientific journals, research thatâs been published between 2007 and 2012, shows that even if a tiny percentage of these weapons are usedânot 1 percent but .015 percent, which is a minuscule amount of the total arsenalâthere will be 44 million deaths immediately, and one billion deaths within one month, from the worldwide consequences of even that small amount.
We can see that the weapons are spreading and that the number of near accidents is very high. I think that we can get widespread agreement: many people in the United States are worried about accidental explosions of nuclear weapons, or are afraid of terrorist appropriation of nuclear weapons. Given that agreement, you have to say, âWell, what is keeping us, then, from just saying that we have to get rid of these things immediately?â Whatâs stopping us is the entirely wrong idea that thereâs some legitimate use for nuclear weapons.
If anything, the state use of nuclear weapons is far more dangerous than terrorist use, or accidental use, first of all, because of the thousands of steps that have to be taken for massive use of them. Nation states, not terrorists, have put these thousands of steps toward readiness in place. A terrorist might be able to get hold of one, or there might be an accidental dropping of one. Believe me, I dread those things, too. But far more dangerous is the situation of countries that have, as the United States does, this hair-trigger alert of many weapons, because many times, people have come close to misconstruing a signal. There is widespread recognition that hackers may soon be able to create the false image of an incoming missile, which would trigger a nuclear weapons-holding country to use an actual missile, or a set of missiles. Most important, we know that past presidents have contemplated using nuclear weapons even when there was no false signal. The use that is not coming from one of the many accidents that have occurred, but from actual, deliberate use, is what I try to focus on in the book.
Elaine Scarry in response to Sarah Gerard's question, "Would you say that weâre presently in a state of emergency, considering the number of nuclear warheads that the U.S. and other countries have collectively, and the fact that the power to launch those warheads in the U.S. is held solely by the president?"