Better Late Than Never: How Did Kade Impact The Data?
On November 9, 2018, Tori + Bobby welcomed their firstborn child, Robert Ellis Smith IV (“Kade”), into the world. This Post is all about him, and gives answers to stuff like—
How far along was Tori, when she announced?
Was she expected to announce earlier or later than she did?
Compared to his due date, was Kade early, late, or on–time?
How long after the Smiths’ marriage did Kade arrive?
How did Kade shift the Bates Marriage to Firstborn average?
When will Tori + Bobby announce Smith #2?
How many siblings will Kade have, when it’s all said and done?
All that, after the jump!
Pregnancy Announcement—
Tori + Bobby announced Pregnancy #1 on May 10, 2018, just 145 Days—or, 5 Months—after they tied the knot on December 16, 2017. Initially, no due date was shared; however, Bringing Up Bates (BUB) eventually revealed that Tori’s due date fell “two days after Thanksgiving.” So, Kade was due on November 24, 2018. Doing the math, the Smiths shared their pregnancy news when Tori was 82 (of 280) Days Along—i.e., at Week 11, Day 5. (Note—This is the very end of the first trimester.)
By Bates Standards, this is pretty early. Before Kade, a ‘typical’ Bates shared baby news when the mother was 112 Days Along (or 16 Weeks). Admittedly, this varied quite a bit, though. While Whitney has announced as early as Day 55 (>8 Weeks), Alyssa is yet to announced before Day 136 (~20 Weeks). The Bateses’ Pregnancy Announcement Timing SD, pre–Kade, was 33 Days. So, assuming a normal curve, 68% of Bates pregnancy reveals would happen on Day 79—145 (Mean ± 1 SD), or ~11—21 Weeks. Kade’s announcement falls within that range, but only barely!
Factoring in Tori + Bobby’s first pregnancy reveal, the Bates data shifted a bit. Now, it’s Bates–typical to announce a pregnancy at Day 109 (3 Days Earlier), or ~15.5 Weeks, and it varies by a SD of 33 Days (No Change). (Technically, the SD did shift down from 33.4 Days to 32.82 Days—but, they both round to 33 Days.)
Kade’s Arrival—
Kade was born to Tori + Bobby on November 9, 2018. Since he wasn’t ‘due’ until November 24, 2018, he was 15 Days Early. That makes him the fourth earliest–arriving GrandBates, after Erin’s children (25, 24, and 29 Days Early).
Speaking of Erin, Duggar Data excludes her data when calculating the Bates–average ‘timeliness’ of birth (vs. due date), because she has a unique medical condition that causes her early births. So, excluding Erin... Third–Generation Bateses arrived 1 Day Early, on average, until the point of Kade’s birth. Given the SD of 5 Days—and again, assuming a normal distribution—the chances of a [non–Paine] GrandBates being born 6 Days Early—3 Days Late were ~68%.
Kade shifted this data. Now, it’s Bates–typical to deliver 3 Days Early (2 Days Earlier), and the SD is 7 Days (+2 Days). What this means is that the probable timing of delivery (vs. the due date) is now 10 Days Early—4 Days Late.
Marriage–to–Firstborn Delay—
Marriage to Firstborn Spacing—
The Smiths married on December 16, 2017, and became first–time parents on November 9, 2018. That’s a delay of only 328 Days (11 Months). Despite the seemingly rapid Marriage to Firstborn pace, it’s actually not that impressive by Bates standards: Zach + Whitney became parents after only 319 Days, and it took Alyssa + John just 322 Days.
Until Tori + Bobby joined the childbearing race, the ‘typical’ Bates newlyweds became parents after just 400 Days (13 Months) of marriage; however, with a SD of 137 Days, it honestly varied wildly. (Note—Since the Keilens aren’t yet parents, this data doesn’t include them.) Doing the math, chances were 68% that a Bates Couple would welcome Child #1 after 263—537 Days (or, 9—18 Months).
Kade helped smooth out the data, a bit. Factoring him in, Bates Couples now tend to become first–time parents 382 Days (12 Fewer Days) into a marriage, on average. Also, the SD is now 118 Days (–19 Days), indicating less volatile (and more predictable) data. Assuming a bell curve, there are now 68% Odds of a Bates Couple welcoming their firstborn with 264—500 Days of marrying.
What This Means for the Smiths—
So... What does all of this mean for Tori + Bobby? Well for one, the Predictor says they'll have 17 Children Total.
Also, the Predictor views Kade as a ‘honeymoon baby’ since he arrived early into the Smith’s marriage. As such, it assumes that their rest of their children will arrive 50% Slower than Kade did. So... After 492 Days, rather than 328 Days. Based on that, the Predictor expects Smith #2 will arrive on March 15, 2020. Tori is predicted to announce the pregnancy on September 14, 2019.
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Per Bringing Up Bates Tori is due 2 days after Thanksgiving
Update: Tori’s Due Date (and Projected Delivery Date)
Thank you for send this in, Anons! Until now, Duggar Data was using a tentative November 1, 2018 due date for Smith #1. (We only knew the month, but the 1st seemed to make sense, given when Bates Couples typically announce.) Now, it has been revealed via BUB that Smith #1 is actually due November 24, 2018—i.e., two days after Thanksgiving. Hurray for new data!
Based on this new data, we now know—
Tori + Bobby revealed the pregnancy when Tori was 82 Days (11 Weeks, 5 Days) along. Pre–Smith 1, the average Bates Couple announced at 16 Weeks (112 Days) along.
TObby announced the baby’s sex (and name) on Day 124. Previously, an average Bates Couple would announce the sex on Day 141.
… also, per the Predictor, Cade’s DOB is now set for November 23, 2018. This is based on the fact that the typical [non–Paine] GrandBates arrives 1 Day Early.
About an hour ago, newlyweds Tori Layne (Bates) Smith + Robert “Bobby” Ellis Smith III shared their first child’s sex via Entertainment Tonight. Apparently, it’s a boy! Also, to literally no one’s surprise, the Smiths confirmed that they’ll give their son the family name—Robert Ellis Smith IV. He’ll actually go by ‘Cade.’
News of Tori’s first pregnancy broke in Us Weekly in May, about 5 Months after the Smiths’ wedding. The nuptials followed–up an ~3 Month Engagement and ~11 Month Courtship, during which the couple was constantly chaperoned.
When he arrives, Cade will be Gil + Kelly Jo Bates’s third grandson—after Zach + Whitney’s son, Bradley Gilvin Bates, and Erin + Chad’s son, Charles “Carson” Stephen IV. Overall, he’ll be the 9th GrandBates. Tori's due date is sometime in November; based on Bates data, Duggar Data is tentatively using November 1, 2018. If that’s right, the Predictor thinks he’ll arrive on Halloween.
When do you think each bate who hasn't had a kid yet will have their first baby? (Ex. Baby Smith November 2018)
When To Expect The Bates Firstborns (As of May 31, 2018)
Here’s what the Predictor thinks, for Bateses in relationships—
Keilen #1 March 2019 (We’ll see…)
Smith #1 October 31, 2018 (Due date is speculative, though.)
Stewart #1 December 2019
Balka #1 January 2020
… and Bateses who aren’t—
Lawson’s #1 January 2021
Nathan’s #1 August 2020
Trace’s #1 August 2022
Katie’s #1 March 2023
Jackson’s #1 August 2027
Warden’s #1 December 2028
Isaiah’s #1 April 2030 (Maybe Jenni Duggar’s #1, too?!)
Addie’s #1 July 2028
Ellie’s #1 October 2029
Callie’s #1 January 2032
Judson’s #1 March 2036
Jeb’s #1 August 2037
Curious how the Predictor comes up with estimates for single and non–courting age Bateses? This Ask explains it! (It’s an older Ask, so it’s technically referring to Predictor 1.0. Now we’re on Predictor 2.1, after a brief stint w/ 2.0… But, all the Predictors use the same method for non–courting Bateses and Duggars, so it’s still relevant!) Note that, as of May 31, 2018, the Bates baselines (averages) are—
Age At Courtship 23.51 (Males) | 20.41 (Females)
C.S. to Engagement 236 Days
Engagement to Marriage 105 Days
Marriage to Child #1 400 Days
Child Spacing 492 Days (Includes all children, even Firstborns.)
Fertile to Age 45.27 (Bates Daughters) | 40.00 (Bates DILs)
Spousal Age Gap 3.09 Years (Male Older) (What is this used for?)
For more GrandBates (and GrandDuggar) predictions, see this Post. Also, you can search through the archives for #grandbateses (or #grandduggars).
TL;DR—Based on the latest update from Tori + Bobby and past Bates behavior, Duggar Data will use November 1, 2018 as Tori’s due date, until further notice.
ICYMI—Newlyweds Tori (Bates) Smith + Bobby Smith III are expecting a baby! US Weekly exclusively broke the news yesterday, and my Post discussed Tori’s possible due date, among other things. Based on the data, I concluded that, if Tori waited a Bates–typical amount of time to reveal her pregnancy, the baby is due on October 25, 2018. Also, the Probable (68%) Range is September 22—November 27, 2018.
Since then, Tori + Bobby have updated us (slightly) on the due date, posting on their joint Instagram: “We are absolutely thrilled to be parents! We cannot wait to meet out little gift from God this November.”
Several Anons, @fundiesandwhatnot, and @haroldtheyrefundies notified me of this update via Ask or comment—
Thank you all for keeping me up to date! With this new data, I’m going to pencil in November 1, 2018 as Smith #1′s tentative due date. Why that specific date? It’s the November date which makes Tori’s announcement most Bates–typical in terms of Gestational Age. (Tori's reveal would’ve been 100% typical if she were 112 Days along at the time, and due on October 25, 2018.)
If Tori is indeed due on November 1, 2018, she’s currently (as of May 11, 2018) 106 Days (15 Weeks, 1 Day) along. She announced at exactly 15 Weeks, and thus into her Second Trimester. Since the typical GrandBates (excluding Erin’s outliers) arrives 1 Day Early, the Predictor currently thinks Smith #1 will be born on Halloween 2018. So, she’s a few months ahead of schedule, though 100% within normal range. Predictor 2.0 initially thought the Smiths would announce a pregnancy in August, and deliver in January 2019.
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