#predictor

1956 Packard Predictor Concept

My tumblr blogs:

And the plot is Fry's POV but he's remembering the events of Meanwhile slowing throught dreams.

Now look at this!

Congrats @ladybender You're a predictor!

Are you really special!?

How much do you realize how much the magician suffers so that he can finally pass all the stages and turn into a hellish human being.

In fact, every human being takes this path, so he is inevitably lost if he is not chosen and distinguished-From The Satan Himself.

The Mother's Age is Now Factored In.

Recently, I received this Ask—

... and I typed up a whole response, explaining how difficult it would be to factor in Maternal Age, it's hard to quantify its impact on child spacing, etc., etc.

But, this Ask really got me thinking... The Master Spreadsheet that "runs" the Predictor actually has a lot, a lot of data, at this point. In the past, I've balked at the idea of incorporating Maternal Age, as I didn't think we had a large enough sample size. Our sample size is way bigger now.

So, I decided to try. After thinking it over, I decided to calculate the [Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss] Child Spacing Average for women within several Age "Bands"—Under 25, 25 to 29.99, 30 to 34.99, 35 to 39.99, and 40 and Over. (Age at Birth is the age used.) Then for each Age Band except Under 25, I created a ratio for that Age Band vs. All Prior Bands. The result is basically a Maternal Age Multiplier, which quantifies Maternal Age's impact on Child Spacing. Here are the numbers— (Note—You'll see "N" listed below; that's the sample size as of July 26, 2022. Data is drawn from All Predictor Families / Couples, and a large number of similarly "fundie" families, primarily In–Laws or In–Laws of In–Laws of Predictor Families. Families like the Vuolos, who aren't quiverfull, aren't included in the data.)

Under 25 N=49. Average Child Spacing (ACS) for this Age Band is 594.35 Days.

Age 25–29.99 N=115. ACS for this Age Band is 673.20. ACS for Younger Age Bands—in this case, there is just one prior Age Band (Under 25)—is 594.35. Ratio is 1.1327.

Age 30–34.99 N=105. ACS for this Age Band is 735.47. ACS for the 2 Younger Age Bands is 649.64. Ratio is 1.1321.

Age 35–39.99 N=76. ACS for this Age Band is 807.86. ACS for the 3 Younger Age Bands is 683.14. Ratio is 1.1826.

Age 40+ N=44. ACS for this Age Band is 936.14. ACS for the 4 Younger Age Bands is 710.61. Ratio is 1.3174.

This shows that, as suspected, ACS increases with Maternal Age... Now, can we say that age causes the increase? Absolutely not. It's just a correlation. But, it's a very interesting correlation, for sure!

From now on, the Predictor will incorporate Maternal Age using the Age Bands above. Here's how it will work: Procreative Pace (PP) is calculated the same way as before. (Average of All Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss Child Spacings.) That PP is then multiplied by Age Ratio / Multiplier that matches with the mother's forecasted age at the baby's birth. As an example, take Zach + Whitney Bates. Their PP, based on their data to date, is 717 Days. Whitney is Age 28.84, and expected to give birth again just before her 30th Birthday. So, we'd predict her next child's (Bates–Perkins #5's) Child Spacing by multiplying their PP by 1.1327, the Age 25–29.99 Multiplier. For her next birth after that (Bates–Perkins #6), she's expected to be in the next Age Band (30–34.99)—so, that Child Spacing is calculated by multiplying their PP by 1.1321, the Age 30–34.99 Multiplier. This is repeated for subsequent pregnancy, until the Fertility Cut–Off. All Zach + Whitney's Age–Adjusted PPs (AAPPs), based on data as of today, are as follows—

Age 25–29.99 717 Days (Their Baseline) * 1.1327 = 818 Days

Age 30–34.99 717 Days * 1.1321 = 818 Days

Age 35–39.99 717 Days * 1.1826 = 848 Days

Age 40+ 717 Days * 1.3174 = 945 Days

What's really cool about this is that, as more babies are born or more families are added to the Master Spreadsheets, the Age Band Ratios recalculate automatically. And, each couple's Age–Adjusted PPs will also recalculate automatically. So, it's very dynamically driven by the data.

Hopefully this makes sense to everyone, and y'all like it... Feel free to send in Asks of DMs with any questions or comments.

I'll do an ESOQ Update, factoring in Maternal Age, soon!