#duggar data asks

Duggar Bridal Parties—Joe (2017) to Josh (2008)

Joe + Kendra   |   September 8, 2017

Kendra’s MOH was her younger sister, Lauren Caldwell, while Joe’s Best Man was his younger brother, Josiah Duggar.  Kendra’s 11 Bridesmaids included—

Her Mother   Christina Caldwell

Her Sister   Lauren Caldwell*

7 Sisters–In–Law  (SILs)   Jana, Jill, Jessa, Jinger, Joy, Hannie, Jenni

1 BIL’s Spouse   Anna Duggar

1 Friend   Rachel Pas______ (?)  (Unsure of Name)

... while Joe’s 11 Groomsmen included—

8 Brothers   Josh, J.D., Josiah,* Jed, Jer, Jason, James, Justin

2 Friends   Trace Bates, Peter Query

+ 1 Unknown

Kendra’s little sister, Olivia Caldwell, served as the Flower Girl, and her younger brothers, Nathan and Timothy Caldwell, served as the 2 Ring Bearers.  All told, Joe + Kendra’s wedding featured a Bridal Party of 26.

Joy–Anna + Austin   |   May 26, 2017

Joy's MOH was her long–time sister mom, Jill Duggar.  Austin’s Best Man was his brother–in–law, Bobby Ballinger, Jr.   Joy’s 12 Bridesmaids included—

6 Sisters   Jana, Jill,* Jessa, Jinger, Johannah, and Jennifer

2 SILs   Anna Duggar, Meagan (Forsyth) Ballinger

1 Future SIL   Kendra Caldwell 

2 Friends   Carlin Bates, Sierra Jo Dominguez, Heidi Query

Meanwhile, with y’all’s help, here’s a list of Austin’s 12 Groomsmen—

His Grandfather   Edwin Forsyth

3 BILs   J.D. Duggar, Bobby Ballinger, Jr. (Sister Meagan’s Husband),* Nick Tunstill (Half–Sister Rachael’s Husband) 

7 Friends   Nate Paine (Chad’s Brother), Aaron Patton, Andrew Patton, Peter Query, Logan Smith, Josiah Stangl, Jacob Wilson  

+ 1 Unknown

The Forsyths’ Flower Girl was Austin’s niece, Allove Tunstill.  From the photo above, the younger boy in the dark suit looks like he’s a Ring Bearer—but I’m not sure, and I don’t know who he is, or how he’s related to the couple.  (Sorry!)   Anyway, when all’s said and done, the Forsyths had a Bridal Party of 25.

Jinger + Jeremy   |   November 5, 2016

Unsurprisingly, Jinger's MOH was her sister, Jessa.  Meanwhile, Jeremy’s Best Man was his brother, Charles Vuolo.  Jinger had 10 Bridesmaids, including—

5 Sisters   Jana, Jill, Jessa,* Joy, Johannah

2 SILs   Anna Duggar, Valerie Vuolo

3 Friends   Jennifer Hartono, Kenzie Peters, Rebekah Kelly

Sadly, Duggar Data has no idea who any of Jeremy’s 10 Groomsmen are, with the exception of—

His Brother   Charles Vuolo

1 BIL   John David Duggar

1 SIL’s Spouse   Ben Seewald

2 Friends   James Song, Josue Soto

+ 5 Unknown  

Miracle Child Josie Duggar was the Vuolos’ Flower Girl, while the Ring Bearer  was Jinger’s nephew, Josh + Anna’s son, Michael J. Duggar.  Ultimately, Jinger + Jeremy had a Bridal Party of 22.

Jessa + Benjamin   |   November 1, 2014

Jessa’s sister, Jinger, served as her MOH.  Ben’s good friend, Dylan McMahan, served as his Best Man.  Jessa had 11 Bridesmaids, including—

4 Sisters   Jana, Jill, Jinger,* Joy–Anna

3 SILs   Jessica Seewald, Danielle Seewald, Michelle Seewald

4 Friends   Jennifer Hartono, Amara Query, Anna Hackel, Peyton Weiss

So far, Jessa + Ben are the only Duggar or Bates pair to have unequal numbers or BMs and GMs.  Ben had 10 Groomsmen, including—

His Brother   Ethan Seewald

His Cousin   Russ Seewald

2 BILs   Josiah Duggar, Joseph Duggar

6 Friends   Dylan McMahan,* Dan Robinson, Jake Hendrix, Kolton Kulis, Rob Flowers, Ryan Schofield

Jessa + Ben had 2 Flower Girls—Jordyn Duggar, Jessa’s little sister, and Faith Seewald, Ben’s little sister.  Ben’s little brother, Thomas Seewald, was the Ring Bearer.  In the end, the Seewalds had a Bridal Party of 24.

Jill + Derick   |   June 21, 2014

Jill’s MOH was her eldest sister, Jana.  Derick’s Best Man was his younger (and only) brother, Daniel Dillard.  Jill’s 6 Bridesmaids included—

5 Sisters   Jana,* Jill, Jinger, Joy–Anna, and Johannah

1 SIL   Anna Duggar

... while Dericks 6 Groomsmen included—

His Brother   Daniel Dillard*

His Cousin   Tony Dillard   

2 BILs   J.D. Duggar, Joseph Duggar

2 Friends   Stephen Jones, Madison McCalmon

Perhaps making up for a lack of BMs and GMs, the Dillards had 4 Flower Girls—Jill’s sisters, Jenni, Jordyn, and Josie; and her niece, Josh + Anna’s daughter, Mackynzie.  Finally, they had 2 Ring Bearers—Jill’s youngest brother, Jackson; and Jill’s nephew, Josh + Anna’s first son, Michael.  Ultimately, Jill + Derick had a Bridal Party of 18.

Joshua + Anna   |   September 26, 2008

Duggar Data is 95% Sure that Anna’s MOH was her sister, Priscilla Keller.  As for the Best Man...  Based on the photo, I think it was J.D.  (He is directly next to Josh, despite being shorter than the next GM in line.)  Here’s a list of Anna’s 10 Bridesmaids—

4 Sisters   Esther, Rebekah, Priscilla,* Susanna

5 SILs   Jana, Jill, Jessa, Jinger, Joy–Anna

+ 1 Unknown

... and Josh’s 10 Groomsmen—

7 Brothers   J.D.,* Joseph, Josiah, Jed, Jer, Jason, James

1 BIL   Joshua MacDonald   

+ 2 Unknown

Per Josh (at ~5:55), his youngest brothers, Justin and Jackson, were the 2 Ring Bearers, and his then–youngest sisters, Johanna and Jennifer, served as their 2 Flower Girls.  Overall, it was a Bridal Party of 24.

Bates Bridal Parties—Tori (2017) to Erin (2013)

Tori + Bobby   |   December 16, 2017

When Tori married Bobby, 2 MOHs stood by her side—Carlin Bates (Maid) and Erin (Bates) Paine (Matron).  As for Bobby, he chose just 1 Best Man—his best friend, Kelton Balka, who also happens to be Josie’s boyfriend.  Tori had a total of 10 Bridesmaids, including—

6 Sisters   Erin,* Michaela, Alyssa, Carlin,* Josie, Katie

2 SILs   Whitney (Perkins) Bates, Katherine Smith (Bobby’s Sister?)

2 Friends   Devonna Killin, Abby Paine (Chad Paine’s Sister)

...and Bobby had 10 Groomsmen, namely—

4 BILs   Zach, Lawson, Nathan, and Trace Bates

1 SIL’s Spouse   Chad Paine 

5 Friends   Kelton Balka (Josie’s BF),* Evan Stewart (Carlin’s BF), Dillon Richards, Johnathan Rasmussen, Samuel Fuller    

The Smiths’ also had 3 Flower Girls—Tori’s sister Callie; Tori’s cousin, Charlotte Bates; and Grace Renner, who Duggar Data doesn’t recognize.  The Smiths had 3 Ring Bearers—Judson and Jeb Bates, plus a little boy I’ve not seen before, Cole Renner.  All in all, the Smiths’ had a Bridal Party of 26.

Michaela + Brandon   |   August 15, 2015

At Michaela’s request, her mother (Kelly Jo Bates) served as her MOH.  As for Brandon, I wasn’t able to identify his Best Man.  Michaela’s 8 Bridesmaids, all family members except one, included—

Her Mother   Kelly Jo Bates*

3 Sisters   Erin Paine (Not MOH, Despite Tan Dress), Alyssa Webster, Tori Bates

3 SILs   Angie Keilen, Becky Keilen, Christy Keilen

1 Friend   Jana Duggar (!)

... meanwhile, Brandons 8 Groomsmen included—

2 Brothers   Brent and Craig Keilen

2 BILs   Lawson Bates, Trace Bates

4 Friends   Andy Warner, Gabe Cleator, Kelly Dornik, Nate Paine (Chad Paine’s Brother)

Also, they had 3 Flower Girls—Addallee, Ellie, and Callie Bates—each of whom is Michaela’s younger sister.  Finally, Michaela’s little brother, Judson Bates, was the Ring Bearer.  Overall, the Keilens had a Bridal Party of 20.

Alyssa + John   |   May 24, 2014

Breaking with tradition, Alyssa didn’t choose a sister as her MOH—instead, she chose her sister–in–law, Tori Webster.  (Confusing!  Two Toris!)  Brandon wasn’t so rebellious; his Best Man was his brother, Jordan Webster.

Alyssa had 8 Bridesmaids, consisting of—

3 Sisters   Michaela Bates (Keilen), Erin Paine, Tori Bates (Smith) 

3 SILs   Whitney Bates, Tori Webster,* Elizabeth Miller  (John’s Sister)

2 Friends   Andrea Warren, Bethany Chavez

... while John had 8 Groomsmen, namely—

3 Brothers   Jordan,* Brent, and David Webster

2 BILs   Nathan Bates, Joe Miller

1 Cousin (?)   Jonathan Webster  (Not A Sibling; Cousin is A Guess)

2 Friends   Lewis Albright, Luke Brigham

Alyssa’s little sisters, Addie and Ellie Bates, were the 2 Flower Girls, while her little brother, Judson Bates, was the Ring Bearer.  All told, the Websters had a Bridal Party of 19.     

Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates   |   December 14, 2013

Whitney stood at the altar with her cousin (?), Makayla Ray, as her MOH.  For his Best Man, Zach chose his friend, Andy Leftwich.  (Interesting he didn’t go with a sibling!)  Whitney’s 6 Bridesmaids included—

1 Sister   Nakota Owens

3 SILs   Alyssa Bates (Webster), Josie Bates, Katie Bates

1 Cousin (?)   Makayla Ray*

1 Friend   Carrie Blackwell

... while Zach’s 6 Groomsmen included—

4 Brothers   Lawson, Warden, Isaiah, Jackson

2 Friends   Andy Leftwich,* John David Duggar

The Bates–Perkins's 3 Flower Girls included Whitney’s adoptive sisters—Ella, Sadie, and Bella Owens.  Finally, Whitney’s brother—Phillip Owens—was Zach + Whit’s Ring Bearer.  Overall, they had a Bridal Party of 16.

Erin + Chad Paine   |   November 2, 2013

For her MOH, Erin picked her sister, Tori Bates.  For his Best Man, Chad chose his friend, Jordan Webster—who is now Alyssa (Bates) Webster’s BIL.  Erin’s 5 Bridesmaids included—

3 Sisters   Alyssa, Tori,* Carlin

1 SIL   Abby Paine

1 Friend   Becky Keilen (Michaela’s Future SIL)   

... and Chad’s 5 Groomsmen included—

3 Brothers   Thomas, Nate, and Joey Paine   

1 BIL   Zach Bates

1 Friend   Jordan Webster* (Alyssa’s Future BIL)

The Flower Girl was Erin’s sister, Callie–Anna Bates, and the Ring Bearer was Chad’s brother, Johnny Paine.  Overall, the Paines had a Bridal Party of 12.

Meet The Radfords

The Radfords, of Morecambre, Lancashire, England, are Britain’s largest family.  Noel + Suzanne “Sue” Radford were childhood sweethearts—key word, ‘child.’  When Sue got pregnant at Age 13, she and Noel—who were both given up for adoption, as infants—decided to raise the child.  Radford #1, Christopher, was born shortly after Sue’s 14th Birthday.  Surprisingly, things worked out.  Noel + Sue stayed together, raising Chris and preventing Baby #2, until their marriage ~4 Years Later, on September 26, 1992.

Little Radfords arrived in quick succession, after that.  Within 15 Months, Noel + Sue’s long–awaited Baby #2 (Sophie) was born.  Before long, the Radfords had #3, then #4, then #5—ultimately, settling into an average pace of 1 Child Every 507 Days (16.66 Months).  While Sue was pregnant with Baby #9 (Josh), Noel actually got a vasectomy.  (Not sure if it’s relevant, but Joshua’s spacing is one of closest of all the Radfords, at 323 Days.)  He quickly got it reversed, though, as “the couple longed for more children.”  So, more children they had:  Eleven more, in fact, for a total of twenty, one of whom was still born (#17, Alfie).

After Baby #20 (Archie)’s birth <9 Months ago (in September 2017), Noel + Sue said their mega–family was finally complete.  “We’re happy to be finishing on a nice even number,” Sue said.  Nevertheless...  On May 28, 2018, the Radfords’ Instagram featured an exciting announcement—Baby #21 is on the way!  It’s a girl, due in November 2018.  (Tori Smith’s baby is also due that month!)

Note that the Radfords aren’t quiverfull (QF)—and, don’t even seen particularly religious.  They also don’t homeschool, ascribed to a sexist modesty standard, or practice chaperoned courtship.  They do, however, star in a reality television show in Britain, which is why they’re fair game to discuss on Duggar Data.

Speaking of data, let’s look at some...

Keeping Up w/ The Radfords

Here’s a chart, summarizing the Radford family’s growth—

Note—Green indicates the two shortest spacings, while red indicates the two longest.  Chris (#1)’s data is omitted, since the Radfords prevented pregnancy for several years, after his birth.  Also, Alfie (#17)’s data is omitted—consistent with Duggar Data’s policy of omitting data from stillbirths or miscarriages, due to data integrity and uniformity concerns.  

Average + S.D.

Doing the math, Sue’s average child spacing is 507 Days, but this varies by a standard deviation (S.D.) of 157 Days.  (So...  She’s not very consistent!)  Thus, if we assume a normal distribution (bell curve), there’s a 68% Chance that Sue will have an inter–birth interval of 350—664 Days, and a 95% Chance that it’ll be between 193—821 Days.

Checking against Sue’s actual data, there’s only one outlier—i.e., one birth that is outside the 95% Range, for spacing—and that’s Radford #18 (Hallie).  She’s immediately after Alfie (#17), who was stillborn, however—so, a larger gap was to be expected.    

Median + M.A.D.

Now, instead of using Average + S.D., let’s use Median + M.A.D.  They’re more resistant to outliers, among other things.  Doing the math again, Sue’s median child spacing is 475 Days.  (Look!  That’s the current, overall Duggar Average, too!)  Sue’s spacing varies by a normalized median absolute deviation (M.A.D.) of 145 Days.  Thus, the Median + M.A.D. system say there are 68% Odds that Sue’ll give birth 330—620 Days apart, and 95% Odds that she’ll give birth 185—765 Days apart.

Again, Hallie (#17) is the only outlier.

How Many Children Will The Radfords Have ?

Well, we don’t have any basis to guess at her fertility, so it’s hard to say.  Right now, Sue Radford (b. 3–22–75) is 43.19 Years old.  Just for fun, let’s say Sue is as fertile as Michelle Duggar.  Michelle had her last child (Josie) at Age 43.24—so, actually, Sue is fertiler than that.  Radford #21 is due in November—and, by then, Sue’ll be ~Age 43.65.  Okay...  So what about Kelly Bates?  Kelly had her last child (Jeb) at Age 45.27.  If Sue is exactly as fertile, she’ll have ~591 Fertile Days left, after Radford #21′s arrive.  (I’m assuming a November 15 D.O.B., as her precise due date isn’t known yet.)  At Sue’s typical pace—Mean or Median—that’s long enough for only one more pregnancy.  So...  The Radfords might end up with 22 Total (21 Living) Children, in the end.

Sue Radford vs. Michelle vs. Kelly Jo

Curious how Sue’s fertility, spacing, etc. compares to Michelle Duggar and Kelly Jo Bates?  Here’s a chart—

Note—Data from Duggar Wedding to Josh Duggar and Chris to Sophie Radford is omitted, due to their parents’ intentional pregnancy prevention.  Also, Jubilee Duggar and Alfie Radford’s data was omitted, due to stillbirth.  Finally, for twins, the second twin (J.D., Jer) wasn’t given a 0 Day spacing—rather, both twins are counted together, since it’s a single birth.