#smith 2

Timing of...

Pregnancy Announcement

Tori + Bobby announced this pregnancy on October 18, 2019.  Tori was due on April 15, 2020.  (Initially, all she said was that she was due in “April.”  However, Gil Bates recently revealed that her exact due date is “Tax Day”—or, April 15th.  See Bates Family Live (3–5–20), at ~4:25.)  Doing the math, Tori was 100 Days (14 Weeks, 2 Days) Along, when she announced Pregnancy #2.

Smith Data.   Tori was only 82 Days (or 11 Weeks, 5 Days) Along, when she and Bobby announced Pregnancy #1.  (She announced on May 10, 2018, and—per Bringing Up Bates (7–26–18), “One Week, Three Babies?”—was due November 24, 2018.)  Factoring in Kolter, the Predictor expects the Smiths to announce all future pregnancies at (82 + 100) / 2 = 91 Days Along (+9 Days).

Bates Data.   Until Kolter, it was Bates–typical to announce a pregnancy at 106 (106.2) Days (or 15 Weeks, 1 Day) Along.  Factoring in Kolter’s data, ‘typical’ is now 105.7 Days.  Rounded, that’s still 106 Days Along (No Change).  There is quite a quite of variation, though...  The Standard Deviation (SD) is 28 Days (or, 4 Week).  Assuming a normal curve, the ±1 SD Range—within which 68% of all data should fall—is to announce at 78–134 Days Along (11–19 Weeks).  

Sex and Name Reveal

With Kolter, the Smiths opted for a joint pregnancy, name, and sex reveal—so, they did a Sex / Name Reveal at 100 Days Along, as well.  They’re not the first Bateses do take this approach.  We’ve actually seen it twice before, once from Erin + Chad (w/ Everly), and once from Alyssa + John (w/ Zoey).

(Note—After Kolter’s birth, the Smiths announced that they’ve decided to spell Kolter’s middle name “Gray,” with an ‘A,’ instead of “Grey,” as announced pre–birth.  Something similar happened with Kade, too...  His name was reported to be “Cade,” then the Bates Family started saying “Kade,” instead.)

Smith Data.   With Kade, the Smiths did a Sex + Name Reveal about 1 Month after the Pregnancy Announcement.  Tori was 124 Days Along.  If we factor in Kolter’s data, it’s now typical for the Smiths to do a Sex + Name reveal at 112 Days Along (–12 Days).

Bates Data.   Looking at the entire family’s data...  Prior to Kolter, your typical Bates Couple announced their baby’s sex at 142 Days Along (or 20 Weeks, 2 Days).  Now, it is Bates–typical to announce at 139 Days Along (–3 Days).  It varies by a SD of 33 Days, yielding a ±1 SD Range of 106–172 Days Along.  

Delivery vs. Due Date

According to Gil Bates, Tori was due with Kolter on April 15, 2020.  Tori actually gave birth on March 25, 2020—i.e., 21 Days Early (at 37 Weeks, 0 Days).  So...  Basically, Tori gave birth the day the pregnancy turned “early term.”  This is the earliest one can deliver, while still having the delivery timing (vs. due date) and birthweight or length contribute to one’s family’s data.  (As a rule, Duggar Data excludes from Delivery Timing and Birthweight / Length any baby born prior to Week 37.)

Smith Data.   Kade was born 15 Days Early, vs. Kolter’s 21 Days Early.  Doing the math, it’s now Smith–typical for a baby to arrive 18 Days Early (–3 Days). 

Bates Data.   Looking just at GrandBateses born at or after ‘term’ (37 Weeks), it used to be Bates–typical for a baby to be born 5 Days Early.  Now, with Kolter’s data, ‘typical’ shifts to 7 Days Early (–2 Days), and it varies by a SD of 8 Days, for a ±1 SD Range of 15 Days Early–1 Day Date.

Birth Announcement

Smith Data.   With Kade, Tori + Bobby waited 3 Days to announce his birth.  He arrived on Friday, November 9, and they announced on November 12—i.e., the following Monday.  Factoring in Kolter, it’s now typical for Tori + Bobby to share the news of a baby’s arrival after 2 Days (1 Day Earlier).

Bates Data.   Before Kolter, it was Bates–typical to wait just 1 Day—specifically, 1.154 Days—to announce a new baby’s arrival.  Factoring in Kolter, that shifted ever–so–slightly to 1.21 Days.

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Kolter weighed 6 Pounds, 6 Ounces, and was 20 Inches in length.

Smith Data.   The Smiths’ Firstborn, Kade, was born at 6 Pounds, 1 Ounce and 18 Inches long.  Taking the average, your typical Smith baby weighs 6 Pounds, 3.5 Ounces (+2.5 Ounces), and is 19 Inches (+1 Inch) long.

Bates Data.   Excluding GrandBates born at <37 Weeks, it was typical, prior to Kolter, for GrandBateses to weigh 6 Pounds, 10.7 Ounces, and be 19.3 Inches long, when they’re born.  Factoring in Kolter...  The average GrandBates is now expected to weigh 6 Pounds, 10.2 Ounces (–0.5 Ounce).  That varies by a SD of ~0.7 Ounce, yielding a ±1 SD Range of 6 Pounds, 9.5–10.9 Ounces.  As for length, the typical GrandBates now measures 19.4 Inches (+0.1 Inch), and it’s varied by a SD of varies by a SD of ~1.11 Inch for a ±1 SD Range of 18.3–20.5 Inches.     

Child Spacing

Procreative Pace

Reminder that ‘Procreative Pace’ refers to Average Child Spacing, adjusted for miscarriages, C–Sections, etc., excluding the first spacing after marriage. 

Smith Data.   Kolter was born 502 Days after his older brother, Kade, and now sets his parents’ Procreative Pace.  With only one child spacing other than the Marriage–to–Firstborn from Kade, Kolter’s data is the only data going towards Tori + Bobby’s Procreative Pace, for now.  As such, that pace is set at 1 Child Every 502 Days (~16.5 Months).  As their quiver grows, all future spacings will be averaged in with Kolter’s data, so their pace will shift over time.

Bates Data.   Prior to Kolter, your typical Bates Couple’s Procreative Pace was 1 Child Every 601 Days.  When Tori was expecting Kolter, it shifted a bit to 1 Child Every 591 Days, based on Kolter’s Projected DOB.  Now that he is here, it shifts to a final position of 1 Child Every 590 Days (–11 Days), with a SD of 167 Days, and a ±1 SD Range of 1 Child Every 423–757 Days (13.9–24.8 Months).        

2nd Child Multiplier

Smith Data.  With Kolter’s arrival, Tori + Bobby’s 2nd Spacing (Kolter) ended up being 1.53x Longer than their 1st Spacing (Kade).  As a reminder, Kade arrived 328 Days after the Smiths married, and Kolter arrived 502 Days Later.

Bates Data.   Prior to Kolter, the typical Bates Couple’s 2nd Child Spacing was 1.7285x Longer than their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing.  After Tori + Bobby announced Pregnancy #2, the Bateses’ 2nd Child Multiplier shifted to 1.6834x, based on Kolter’s Projected DOB.  Now that he’s here, the 2nd Child Multiplier is finalized at 1.6788x Longer than Marriage–to–Firstborn.  That comes out to ~3% Quicker / More Closely–Spaced than was typical, prior to Tori + Bobby announcing Pregnancy #2.

When to Expect Smith #3

Based on the Smith’s new data, here’s the Predictor’s forecast—

Baby News   February 19, 2021

Sex Reveal   March 12, 2021

Due Date   August 27, 2021

Birthdate   August 9, 2021

Early, Late, or What?

Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith married on December 16, 2017, and had their first child, Robert Ellis (“Kade”) Smith IV on November 9, 2018.  After Kade’s birth, the Predictor expected Tori + Bobby to announce another pregnancy this fall, on September 14, 2019.  They didn’t...  But they did announce today—Friday, October 18, 2019—in Us Weekly.

Technically, the Smiths’ news came 34 Days Late.  But, TBH, they’re basically right on–track.  If Tori announced on September 14, 2020, the Predictor would have anticipated a March 15, 2020 birth and a March 30, 2020 due date.  (The Predictor expects Tori to deliver 15 Days Early, as she did with Kade.)  Kolter’s due date is sometime in April 2020.  Depending on when in April, Tori + Bobby could be ‘off’ by as little as 1 Day, and not more than 30 Days.

Estimated Due Date

Per Tori + Bobby and Us Weekly, Tori is due with Kolter in April 2020.  That’s not too specific, giving us a large possible due date range of April 1–30, 2020.  Let’s see if the data helps narrow it down...

With Kade, Tori announced the pregnancy when she was 82 Days Along.  If the Smiths did the same with Kolter, the October 18, 2019 announcement matches up with a May 3, 2020 due date.  Tori’s due in April, though.  So...  No.

Today’s article was a joint Pregnancy + Sex Reveal—so, maybe we should treat it like a Sex Reveal, rather than a Pregnancy Announcement.  With Kade, Tori + Bobby revealed his name and sex at 124 Days Along.  If Tori was that far along for today’s announcement, she’d be due on March 22, 2020...  Again, it doesn’t work.  She’s due in April.

Sadly, the overall Bates data isn’t very helpful, either.  Across all Bates Couples, it’s typical to announce a pregnancy at 115 Day Along—or, 123 Days along, for joint Pregnancy + Sex Reveals.  Using this data, the Smith’s announcement on October 18, 2019 indicates a due date of March 31 or March 23, respectively.  Again...  No.  Those aren’t in April, and Tori is due in April.  Apparently.

So, this is all we know:  Tori is due in April 2020—i.e., between April 1–30.  For now, Duggar Data will use April 16, 2020 as her Estimated Due Date (EDD) for posts like The Next 6 Months.  Hopefully, Tori + Bobby will provide additional information about her due date soon!

Estimated DOB

Tori + Bobby’s Firstborn, Kade, arrived 15 Days Early:  He was born November 9, 2018 but due on November 24.  (See Bringing Up Bates (7–26–18), “1 Week, 3 Babies?”)

Let’s assume, like the Predictor does, that Kolter will also arrive 15 Days Early.  If Tori is due on April 1, he would arrive on March 17.  If Tori is due on April 30, he would arrive April 15.  If Tori’s current Estimated Due Date (April 16) is right, he’d arrive on April 1, 2020.

Child Spacing + ESOQ

Kade was born 328 Days after Tori + Bobby’s wedding.  That’s pretty darn fast, so the Predictor assumed that they’d slow down a by (by 50%), and have their second child 492 Days Later, on March 15, 2020.  If Tori + Bobby maintained a 492–Day pace, and Tori’s fertility mimicked her mother’s, they would’ve ended up with 17 Children.

If Kolter is born April 1, 2020—as estimated from an April 16, 2020 due date—he’ll arrive 509 Days (or ~17 Months) after Kade.  If Tori + Bobby maintain that pace, they’ll end up with 17 Children.  So, there’s No Change to their ESOQ.