#rybar

📝War Plan Against Russia📝

About the declassified defense plan of Germany

The German Armed Forces are implementing the OPLAN DEU operational plan, developed in March 2023. It was classified as "top secret" until recently, when The Wall Street Journal published document details, citing an alleged leak.

🔻The essence of OPLAN DEU:

▪️According to the information, the plan draws on Cold War experience: in case of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, Germany is destined to become the main logistics hub for Western forces.

▪️The document details routes through ports, rivers, railways, and highways, and describes mechanisms for supplying, protecting military vehicle columns, and integrating civilian and military infrastructure. In particular, Rheinmetall is to provide the Bundeswehr with part of its fuel reserves during wartime.

▪️OPLAN DEU once again highlights Europe's serious logistics problems: for example, during the Red Storm Bravo exercises in Hamburg in September, vehicles traveled only ten kilometers in two hours due to traffic and old bridges, under simulated drone attacks.

❗️At the official level, the German Ministry of Defense denies both the plan's declassification and its orientation against Russian troops. According to Christiane Noak, the document indeed exists but is purely defensive in nature (as always) and is regularly modified.

📌Nevertheless, such discussions do not arise out of nowhere. European governments are systematically transitioning to a wartime economy: any expenditure articles are cut, except defense. Incidentally, the defense plan may cost Germany 166 billion euros — including the automotive industry's bleak future.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 RYBAR ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST UKRAINE HAS LOST NEARLY HALF A MILLION SOLDIERS

Russian News outlet Rybar is reporting the losses of the AFU are now close to a half a million KIA, an absolutely astounding number that agrees with the totals Western outlets have published, combining Russian and Ukrainian losses.

Western news outlets were reporting at the start of the Ukrainian offensive that the combined total of Russian and Ukrainian KIA were about 500'00.

And while that same analysis makes ridiculous claims about the proportion of those losses associated with Russian KIAs, the total given of 500'000 pops up repeatedly in Western reporting before the Ukrainian offensive.

The only serious Western analysis, by Mediazona and the BBC, placed Russian losses at roughly 50'000, though they could only confirm 32'000.

This would put Ukrainian losses at the start of the offensive at roughly 400'000-450'000

Since the start of the offensive, the Russian Ministry of Defense has estimated Ukraine's losses at about 80'000, and even if this is a bit high, it still adds to our considerations.

Even if we say it is half that, 40'000 rather than 80'000, the Ukrainian KIA total of half a million is still very close to what Rybar's estimate claims.

So based on everything I've followed in extensive detail on this war, I would rate this claim as fairly accurate. Ukraine has likely suffered roughly half a million KIA.

1. Cleo, a friend’s OC

2. Jarkko, my werewooooooooolf, a cutie

📝Who is the Leader Now?📝

Who Might Take Over Leadership in Venezuela

Against the backdrop of news about the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, predictable discussions have begun about his potential successor, or even someone capable of staging a coup.

In reality, the authorities in Caracas had a scenario in case of Maduro's demise. Although the time to disclose all its specific details has not yet come, several candidates for Maduro's position can be highlighted.

➡Delcy Rodriguez — first vice president, already appointed as interim head of state. She possesses not only significant administrative weight but also very high popularity among ordinary Venezuelans from different social strata.

➡Vladimir Padrino Lopez — Minister of Defense and one of Maduro's closest confidants, who was the first to appear in public after the American attack. Against the backdrop of martial law, he received expanded powers that can be used for anything.

➡Diosdado Cabello — Minister of Interior and the "cardinal" of Venezuelan politics, who was Hugo Chavez's ally even before he came to power and possesses numerous opportunities and levers of influence.

In conditions of de facto "decapitation" of Venezuela, the question of a successor is paramount: whoever can take Maduro's place will influence many processes within the Bolivarian Republic and its foreign policy.

❗However, there is an important nuance: although the list of potential candidates seems to be defined, the situation may encourage other personalities within the republic to try their luck during the period of interregnum. This will naturally affect the situation inside Venezuela.

📝Sky Under Lock📝

Did Trump Close Venezuela's Airspace?

The US President has once again stirred up global media: he addressed airlines, pilots, and even "drug and human traffickers" with a warning about completely closing Venezuela's airspace.

It sounds like a clear signal of an imminent military operation, doesn't it? But in reality, Trump's words didn't actually change much, since flights to the Bolivarian Republic had practically stopped earlier:

🔻What's the nuance?

▪️Most airlines (those still flying to Venezuela by 2025) had already stopped flights to the country due to warnings from the US Federal Aviation Administration and other forms of pressure.

▪️For the national carrier Conviasa, this might even be a much-needed break, since the state of its fleet is less than ideal — due to sanctions, no new aircraft are available. So Venezuelans can calmly allocate all planes for maintenance.

▪️And a complete transport blockade of Venezuela is not being discussed — land corridors to Brazil and Colombia remain open.

🖍So why did Trump make such a statement? On December 9-10, an international conference of LOMs from around the world was supposed to take place in Venezuela, aimed at demonstrating that the country is in perfect order, contrary to Western media reports.

🚩The US was unlikely to be unaware of this, given the size of their agency and local figures' love for WhatsApp. As a result, due to one of Trump's messages, there will be no desire to come (even through Colombia), and the US will suppress the spread of narratives they don't need.

❗️All this is part of a consistent increase of political pressure on Venezuelan authorities and raising the stakes. Especially before a potential meeting between Trump and Maduro, who was supposedly supposed to be killed God knows how many times.

At the same time, Trump's rhetoric is quite flexible and allows earning from the Caribbean crisis, diverting attention from various issues. Including those related to American "internal affairs".