#population statistics

Quebec's statistical institute estimates the province's population will decline by 80,000 by 2030. The institute says the population will decrease due to a number of factors, including recent government policies to reduce the number of temporary immigrants. The agency also said its estimates were based on trends related to fertility rates and international migration patterns.

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Dumb CDC welcomes you to enjoy our timely upcoming series Genocide: A Working Definition. We hope to promote conversation through this collection of diverse essays by recognized figures in places.

After 2 months into Israel's siege on Gaza, members of the UN have called for a humanitarian ceasefire. First on December 8th, where the US vetoed the Security Council vote, and then on December 12th, where 153 members of the UN General Assembly voted in favor of ceasefire. The aim of the ceasefire is to allow for humanitarian aid and recovery in the occupied Palestinian territories (oPt as defined by the UN).

At this moment, Palestine is experiencing a third telecommunications blackout. 9 out of 10 people cannot eat each day. Succumbing to wounds, injury, and disability is an imminent risk-- 14 hospitals are operating and only partially. The complete closure of food, fuel, water, and medical channels is part of Israel's "collective punishment" against the civilian population. Punishment that is considered separate from the indiscriminate airstrikes, bombings, and raids.

In under 70 days, the explosive power of 3 atomic bombs have been dropped within the 141 square miles of Gaza. That would be the equivalent of the city of Atlanta, GA experiencing the horror of Hiroshima 3 times over.

And so, people are finding themselves asking: Is this genocide? Yes, people are still asking themselves this.

We here at Dumb CDC understand that historical continuity is a difficult concept. We also understand that everyone has developed their own yardstick for measuring genocide in 2023.

On December 6th, Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor reported a civilian death toll of 21,731 civilians. In these figures, children are 40% of all deaths (n = 8,697). These numbers do not include adults and children who are missing or have an unknown status.

The simplest assessment of the value of Palestinian life would be a correlation between Palestinian civilian deaths and Hamas militant deaths (Israel's measure of military success).

On December 6th, CNN reported that 5,000 Hamas militants were confirmed dead by Israel:

1.74 living children + 2.60 living adults = 1 dead Hamas 2 living children + 3 living adults = 1 dead Hamas *round up when the units are humans

On December 15th, Reuters reported that 7,000 Hamas militants were confirmed dead by Israel:

1.24 living children + 1.86 living adults = 1 dead Hamas 2 living children + 2 living adults = 1 dead Hamas *round up when the units are humans

And before you say "but is this genocide?", please know we anticipated this question. Obviously there are confounds we simply cannot account for in this complex situation.

We acknowledge that this is an overestimation of the value of human life in Palestine. Additional things must be destroyed to yield 1 dead Hamas. We still need to factor in the destruction of the built environment, healthcare systems, sanitation systems, food systems, and natural resources of the population (among other things). It is difficult to place a value on heritage sites, historical landmarks, and places of worship, but these together do yield 1 dead Hamas.

Human rights monitoring has been greatly disrupted. And in under 70 days, 90 journalists providing on-the-ground coverage of the war have been killed by airstrikes and snipers (v. 69 killed during the entirety of WWII; v. 63 killed during the entirety of Vietnam). We understand that this puts further limitations on our data.

We cannot confidently make inferences about the real value of human life in 2023 until more data becomes available. Until then, Dumb CDC remains committed to measuring genocide in units of population health indicators to inform a new, working definition.

Is The Universe Filled With Black Holes That Shouldn't Exist?

“What about at the high end of the stellar mass range of black holes? It's true that pair instability supernovae are real and are indeed a limiting factor, as they don't produce black holes. However, there's an entirely separate way to produce black holes that is not particularly well understood at this time: direct collapse.

Whenever you have a large enough collection of mass, whether it's in the form of a cloud of gas or a star or anywhere in between, there's a chance that it can form a black hole directly: collapse due to insufficient pressure to hold it up against gravitation. For many years, simulations predicted that black holes should spontaneously arise through this process, but observations failed to see a confirmation. Then, a few years ago, one came in an unlikely place, as the Hubble Space Telescope saw a 25 solar mass star simply "disappear" without a supernova or other cataclysm. The only explanation? Direct collapse.”

As far as our best theories are concerned, the Universe isn’t filled with black holes of all different masses. Instead, the black holes that the Universe forms are inextricably linked to the processes by which the Universe makes the objects that then become black holes. From stars, there’s a theoretical lower limit of about 5 solar masses, and yet we saw a black hole of about 3 solar masses get created. There should be an enormous drop in black hole frequency above about 50 solar masses, but LIGO may be about to challenge that. And even at the highest end, there should be an upper limit to the masses of supermassive black holes, but a few of the ones we’ve found challenge that limit, too.