#pick a player

Pick a Player (Hockey Science with @lulucanwrite):

Sebastian Aho vs Brayden Point

Erin’s Note: yes both of us are Carolina fans. No, that did not play a part in the choice. The requester asked to know which player would fit better on the Carolina Hurricanes, we answer thusly.

These are the types of players that make it hard to believe that there are fans of this sport that don’t pay attention to teams in the South. We could spend an hour waxing poetic about Aho and Point until we’re blue in our faces and we (mostly Lulu) have bored you to tears. This one was pretty difficult considering they’re remarkably similar players and are going to be game changers for the foreseeable future. But, the suggestion was to look at the stats through the lens of the Carolina Hurricanes system so that changes things a little. To be clear, Lulu thinks they’d probably cry tears of joy if Point and Aho ever suited up on the Canes together, and Erin gets goosebumps thinking about it. Point has an exceptional finish and high level skill. But if we’re talking about system fit and who you’d rather see on the Canes, you have to go with Aho on this one--even if he was on some other team with the same stats. 

But wait! The stats are pretty similar...what gives? When we tell you it shocks us how similar Point and Aho are...it’s a lot (almost as shocking as their draft spots but that’s another conversation). Their career FO% (face off win percentage) is about the same; goals, assists, and ATOI (Average Time on Ice) is similar as well. Point has a better SH% (shot percentage) than Aho with a 17.3% over 14.3%. However, in the Brind’Amour era, players know they have the coach's trust when they are on the ice in all situations and Sebastian Aho has shown aptitude in all situation play. Frankly, Aho’s a monster on the PK with a career average CF% (Corsi for percentage) of 24.5% vs Point’s 9.4%. And over 80% of Aho’s shifts on the PK start in the defensive zone. This means he is consistently given some of the toughest PK shifts and still has managed to pick up at least 3 short handed goals a year since the RBA regime began.    

The PP is where the two of them align once again, with similar on-ice shooting percentages of 18.3% and zone starts. But Aho has, for the last several seasons, outperformed Point per 60 minutes and has a marginally better CF% on the powerplay as well. Yes, Aho is more prone to giving away the puck than Point, and no one can deny that Point is a zone entry monster. But, when considering the bigger picture with point share, CF%, PK magic, average takeaways, and a secretly heavy game, the Canes have to like what they have in Aho. If Point can get back to that one season he had 20 PP goals and also do some solid PK work, then Brind’Amour would probably want him on the next flight to Raleigh.   

Lulu’s note: Also Bettman please bring back the Southeast Division. I want to see these two go toe-to-toe every year for selfish reasons.

(requested by @badhockeymom)

Help me decide who the prominent male will be in my possible new fic idea...

I’m trying to figure out my life and thought perhaps, I could put it into words instead of tears and pain.

1. Jared/Sam

2. Jensen/Dean

3. Misha/Castiel

Not sure if it’ll be rpf or not, so just send in a number and help me get this started.

Thanks fam!

Pick a Player (Hockey Science with @lulucanwrite): 

Joonas Korpisalo vs. Elvis Merzlikins

Let us preface this by saying this: goalies are weird, and that’s a factor we have to consider. But unfortunately, we don’t have a stat for swagger or how weird the superstitions are. If you asked which goalie we would want in net tomorrow for a game with zero practice time and zero prep, we’d go with Korpisalo. The guy has experience, and when he’s on, he is on and ready to go. But if you asked who we would want to build a goalie tandem around and consider the key part of a four year projection, we’d go with Merzlikins. 

So, let’s break it down. 

SV% (save percentage) is the stat everyone thinks about when they think of a goalie, and Korpisalo stands at .905 vs Merzlikins .920. Yes, we should consider the fact that one has six years of experience (and 147 starts) and the other is still on his ELC (with 54 starts) but even with this difference, the gap between the two goalies on this datapoint is a margin worth looking at. More illuminating however is the percentages when broken down by special teams performance. Your goalie has to be your biggest PK and PP player and their performance during a PP or a PK can make or break a game. This is where the comparison gets interesting. On the PP, SV% comes down to .857 for Korpisalo and .878 for Merzlikins and on the PK, it is .891 and 1.00 respectively. This means that in two years in the NHL, Merzlikins hasn’t let in a short handed goal in the regular season. The mere thought of this gives us goosebumps, holy god. Add in that about 12% of his games played have been shutout wins and you definitely have our attention. 

For Goals Against, this is where things get a little interesting. Korpisalo has a GAA (Goals Against Average] of 2.90, Merzlikins at 2.54. Pretty respectable numbers for both, as far as career numbers go. Even with their respective struggles last year, Merlikins kept his numbers in a respectable range of 2.77. What stands out the most to me however is his QS% (Quality Start Percentage), which basically means a goalie doesn’t allow more goals than expected and goes into the game with at least a league average SV%. Merzlikins’ sits at .574, Korpisalo’s is at .483 (the league average is .530). All in all, more often than not, Merzlikins is playing in a way that gives his team a chance to win. This doesn't mean it will be a perfect game, but it does mean if the team in front of him does their thing, especially the team he’s with now, they have a decent shot at winning, night in and night out. And that's all you can ask for from your goalie, especially a young one. So for this one...we gotta go with Elvis. His numbers indicate a high ceiling in the right conditions and we can't wait to see how he develops over the next several years.

(requested by @markusnutivaara)

Pick a Player (Hockey Science with @lulucanwrite):

Nathan MacKinnon vs Connor McDavid

Erin Note: I call this "the Celtic Battle" and I will take no criticism on that.

Looking at stats that are upper echelon make our heads spin, but it is always such a treat to do so. Now, this is the more “expensive” option, but like when buying diamonds or mattresses, the more expensive, the better Thus, we have little choice but to go with the literal Once in a Generation Talent that is Connor McDavid. Mackinnon isn’t something to scoff at for sure, but McDavid’s point production and consistency are frankly, unmatched.

Off the bat, what stands out during initial comparison is the P/60 (Points Per 60 minutes) at 4 for MacKinnon and 5.1 for McDavid. Those numbers are both significant of high talent, but McDavid’s 5.1 is, to put it bluntly, amazing. To put it in perspective a little, Crosby averaged about 4.2 P/60 in his first six years. McDavid is also averaging 1.41 points per game compared to MacKinnon’s .98, and McDavid is doing it with less average shots on goal (3.15 compared to 3.67). The shots metric may not overwhelm, but that’s something to keep in mind when comparing players who opposing teams will be looking to play the suppression game against. McDavid does have more assists too. McDavid even beats MacKinnon in goals per game as well at .48 vs .37. To give MacKinnon credit, this script flips in the playoffs, with MacKinnon averaging 1.38 points vs 1.05.

One metric that is fun to look at is their PS (Point Share). This is the estimated number of game points (points given to teams after a win or OT loss) contributed by a player. Both have such high shares, but there is a slight gap. Last season, it is estimated that McDavid--just by being McDavid--got his team 13 points higher in the standings. Ridiculous. [Lulu note: The guy is like a school yard bully stealing your lunch money. It’s actually estimated his offense has given his team 55.9 standings points alone over the course of his career, which is insane!!!!!] It is estimated that MacKinnon’s defensive point share is higher than McDavid’s, which doesn’t really surprise, given McDavid’s puck turnover rates. The PS is also supported by their possession numbers (CF%) and stickhandling, in particular with takeaways. The fact that McDavid hasn’t had a season with less than 30 takeaways is bonkers. Neither may be perfect “Corsi Darlings,” but both their CF% are respectable, although again, McDavid has a slight edge in the special teams Corsi battle.....

To be honest, at the end of the day, it’s McDavid’s world and we’re just living in it.

Pick - A - Player

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