#pettis

Joey

January 13th, 2020 

The UFC kicks off its 2019 schedule after a few long weeks off with a card that will, with very little sarcasm in play, play a hefty part in defining the way 2020 rolls out deep into the year. UFC 246 from Las Vegas, Nevada is a weird card on paper but it's also very significant and significance can sometimes create card quality/card quantity. Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone is a significant fight, one that figures to ask and answer a lot of questions for both men. For better or worse, the future of two divisions could be mapped out in one night depending on the results of one which fight which again parlays to its perceived significance. The PPV main card is "fine" although it clearly lacks a significant co-main event and the televised prelims are actually respectably spiffy as they're essentially four well put together "prospect of note vs proven veteran" fights with some good early ESPN+ prelim action too. Again I don't know if this card is good or bad---just that it's a significant card of fights and by the time Friday comes along, that long term delay in high level MMA is going to be eating at us SO we'll be all in on this one.

2020 Stat-O-Matic:

Debuting Fighters (): Ode Osbourne, Aleksa Camur Main Event Exemption:

Short Notice Fighters (): Main Event Exemption:

Second Fight (): Askar Askarov Main Event Exemption: Vs Debutantes:

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (): Conor McGregor, Brian Kelleher Main Event Exemption: Conor McGregor

Undefeated Fighters (): Aleksa Camur, Maycee Barber Main Event Exemption:

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (): Alexey Oleinik, Justin Ledet Main Event Exemption:

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (): Donald Cerrone, Conor McGregor Main Event Exemption: Conor McGregor, Donald Cerrone

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- So what necessarily is the end game here for Conor McGregor? As has been the case since he broke out onto the scene and KO'd Jose Aldo, much of Conor's "plans" feel less like plans and more like thoughts he forces into existence. The good stuff like being a double champ and finagling a big money Floyd fight and the bad stuff like the Khabib lead up or believing he could just beat Nate Diaz up 15 lbs because it seemed like fun all feel like the decisions of a guy who sort of just decides he's going to do something and then does it regardless of the long term impact. Conor had the chance to fight Justin Gaethje and instead pushed for Frankie Edgar fight, ultimately leading us to the here and now where he'll draw Donald Cerrone up a weight class after a year plus layoff. In the time between Conor's LAST fight and this one, he's been arrested, accused of sexual assault, accused of fathering a child out of his marriage and feel free to fill me in on anything I may have missed. What sort of made Conor McGregor a superstar was that he flirted with the concept of being a character completely in control of everything he did and 2019 at the very exposed him as somebody lacking any semblance of control within his life. Either way, it's hard to say what the future holds for McGregor with a win.  We know a loss means it's over as four losses in his last five pro fights (I'm counting Floyd here for completionist sake) would probably kill whatever credibility he had and whatever legitimacy he garnered over the course of three years running through the UFC ranks. A win? It's hard to say with a guy who when he's right has the ability to dictate what he opts to do next. A win? Conor McGregor would fight Jorge Masvidal in a big money fight, a third Diaz fight, a GSP fight where both fighters can cash out or go and chase down Khabib. If one truly wishes to get stupid, I suppose fights with Pacquaio, Floyd or Paulie Malignaggi exist out there as well.  The first step isn't so much winning this fight but winning this fight and getting back to what made this whole act work to begin with.

2- This is historically the sort of fight Cerrone doesn't show up for and gets forced out of his element but there's some things here I think that do tilt the scales slightly in his favor. For starters, I DO believe in ring rust and Conor hasn't fought in over a year and has fought just twice since the end of 2016. You can argue that wear and tear means Cerrone is shop worn but I feel as though he fights better the MORE he fights and the more active he is. For a fighter like Conor who lives or dies based upon how sharp his timing is, I think it's fair to wonder if the long layoff is going to shake him. We saw him struggle with his timing vs Khabib and while Khabib is on a whole different galaxy than Cerrone, I'd argue it's worse to be slightly off vs a dude like Cerrone who does have the starch in his strikes to do more than flash KD you. Also Cerrone is probably the first guy since Jose Aldo that Conor's had to be mindful of walking into smoke with the legs. Also Cerrone's been campaigning at 170 lbs on and off since 2016 and so you have to assume if this is about being comfortable at the weight class, he's got the nod over Conor.

3- Under normal circumstances, I'd say "I think Conor's defensive wrestling is somewhat understated and the idea that anybody can take him down and sub him is a fallacy" but I also have ZERO idea if he's actually done any serious grappling training or if he's just hoping Cerrone's going to play nice and strike with him for a bit.

4- Which fight is more undesirable for Amanda Nunes; a Holly Holm rematch where she can't realistically top what she did in the first fight or a Rocky Pennington rematch where she'll be tasked with trying to sell/expand upon one of her most boring fights ever?

5- I wonder who is more broken in theory between Holm and Pennington. Rocky looked to be on the verge of going from solid WMMA fighter to a damn good top 5-ish woman at 135 lbs after dominating Meisha Tate but she broke her leg, took a lot of time off, followed that up with a dud vs Amanda Nunes and then got stalled out by Germaine de Randamie. She rebounded with a win over Irene Aldana which almost felt more about Aldana being a putz and less about any sort of sign of a rebound for Rocky. It's worth remembering that the fight vs Holm was the one that got sort of signified that Rocky was better than people realized but it required her to pressure for fifteen minutes and that's sort of gone away for her recently. As for Holm? She's fought Rousey, Cyborg, Tate, Shevchenko and Nunes. She's pushing 40. She had an extensive boxing history that suggests she's taken plenty of damage. She just got KO'd for the first time in her UFC run the last time out and at this point it's fair to ask if Holm's durability is going to be shot.  This fight is why Aspen Ladd figuring shit out is really important for this division.

6- Maurice Green and Alexey Olenik being on this main card is curious until you realize that this main card has two WMMA fights and a fight at lightweight on it. Sometimes beef gets called in to "bulk" up the main card.

7- Anthony Pettis sure picked a fine week to announce a UFC lawsuit, am I right?

8- Let's talk about how great these prelims are for a second. Sodiq Yusuff vs Andre Fili is a battle of exciting prospect and proven veteran with a multitude of ways to win. Nasrat Haqparast vs Drew Dober is a battle of exciting prospect vs proven veteran with a multitude of ways to win. Maycee Barber vs Roxanne Modafferi almost feels like the potential crowning of Maycee as a 125 lb contender by taking on a former title contender who STYLISTICALLY will at least give us a reason to double check her ability to do things such as defend takedowns and deal with pressure. Lastly I REALLY do love this fight between Chas Skelly and Grant Dawson as Dawson has slowly gone from somewhat awkward wrestling savant to a more well rounded pressure fighter while Chas Skelly is one of those ultimate gatekeeper types for young fighters. These are all great fights worthy of going out of your way to see on ESPN.

9- We're four years now into the Alexa Grasso project and I still don't know if she has the fight smarts to ever take the next step in her career. A good test vs a declining Claudia Gadelha who still has something to offer.

10- How much ya wanna bet Maurice Green allows Olenik to pull him down on top of him?

11- Justin Ledet's run at 205 lbs has been weird as his lack of athleticism for the weight class plus what feels like an odd lack of strength (How he was burly enough to fight at HW but gets chucked around at 205 lbs is a mystery to me) has made him go 0-2 in the division. After a lengthy lay off, he's back at 205 lbs against Aleksa Camur. Camus is a training partner of Stipe Miocic and he got in here off the Contenders Series where he had a crazy fight that exposed him to be a) wacky as all hell and b) a bit too raw for my liking in the UFC. This feels pretty winnable for Spirit of Truth lookalike Ledet.

PACKS MADISON PETTIS

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Joey

August 12th, 2019

So this card is great! Seriously I lack a greater word to describe this card besides great. In many ways, this card is an old school style UFC card. You have a tremendous title fight (arguably the GOAT if not a top 5 fighter of all time) and the best UFC HW ever in terms of resume with a co-main event that isn't a title fight but pits two superstars against one another in a strikers delight. Paulo Costa vs Yoel Romero is legit a main event anywhere else in the world sans PPV and Ian Heinisch vs Derek Brunson would be a solid co-main event on any ESPN card they could put on. Throw in a really great FW fight between kickboxer Benito Lopez and super well rounded Sodiq Yusuff. The prelims aren't quite as name heavy and are hurt by the loss of John Makdessi BUT it's hard to knock a slate that features two really good bantamweight fights in Cory Sandhagen vs Raphael Assuncao and Manny Bermudez vs Casey Kenney. Even the return of prospect Devonte Smith is worth keeping an eye on despite the opponent change. The ESPN+ portion of the prelims are okay I suppose as Sabino Mazo vs Shana Dobson and Brandon Davis vs Kyung Ho Kang figures to be a fun as hell action fight. After the poor on paper UFC 240, it's hard to not get a bit excited for what is a damn good return to PPV before the fun stuff with UFC 242 and 243 hit us in September and October.

Fights: 12

Debuts: Clay Collard

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Poliana Botelho vs Maryna Moroz CANCELLED, John Makdessi OUT, Clay Collard IN vs Devonte Smith)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 7 (Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, Yoel Romero, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Derek Brunson, Raphael Assuncao)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 1 (Jodie Esquibel)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 10 (Daniel Cormier, Paulo Costa, Soqid Yusuff, Manny Bermudez, Ian Heinisch, Devonte Smith, Cory Sandhagen, Manny Bermudez, Drakkar Klose, Christos Giagos)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC):  23-9

Daniel Cormier- 4-0 (1 NC) Stipe Miocic- 2-1 Nate Diaz- 0-0 Anthony Pettis- 3-2 Yoel Romero- 1-2 Paulo Costa- 4-0 Gabriel Benitez- 2-1 Sodiq Yusuff- 2-0 Derek Brunson- 3-3 Ian Heinisch- 2-0

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Bantamweight- 3 (43) Middleweight- 2 (28) Lightweight- 2 (51) Featherweight-  1 (40) Women’s Flyweight- 1 (27) Women’s Strawweight- 1 (21) Heavyweight- 1 (24) Welterweight- 1 (47)

Light Heavyweight-  (31) Flyweight-  (11) Women’s Featherweight- (7) Women’s Bantamweight- (13)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (22-46)- Clay Collard

Short Notice Fighters (22-30)- Clay Collard

Second Fight (44-22)- Sabina Mazo, Casey Kenney

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (17-29)-  Nate Diaz, Stipe Miocic, Yoel Romero, Gabriel Benitez, Paulo Costa, Shana Dobson

Undefeated Fighters (28-30)- Paulo Costa, Manny Bermudez

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (9-8)- Kyung Ho Kang

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (25-17)-

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- So is Daniel Cormier going to mentally get up for this fight? Cormier knocked out Miocic in July of 2018 and basically cemented his legacy as one of the best fighters ever by winning titles in two weight classes Conor McGregor style. He also became the first champion to defend a belt while being double champion, doing so when he finished Derrick Lewis in the third round of their fight. Cormier was hoping to retire in March of 2019 after a fight with Brock Lesnar BUT the Lesnar fight fell apart and Brock retired before DC ever could. Having lost the Brock fight, DC put off his retirement to take a fight against Stipe Miocic and potentially Jon Jones. This was clearly Cormier's back up option as he admitted that him vs Miocic was more about him fulfilling his promise to Stipe that he'd give him a rematch. Cormier has talked about a Jones fight as well but seems like that would just be a big cash out for him. DC is in that "I've proven myself, now I'm going to get my money" phase of his life. I wonder if he's viewing this fight and a potential Jones fight as high level big check cash out fights and if it's fair to be concerned about DC showing up just to show up.

2- How quickly does the winner of Miocic vs DC get the turnaround fight? Ngannou vs DC/Miocic in November in MSG? December in Vegas? Gotta be options out there I'm assuming.

3- I literally have no idea what to expect from Anthony Pettis vs Nate Diaz. Let's set the scene/stage first; Anthony Pettis is really a case of combat sports fans just not giving a shit about reality because what you did five years ago still counts for something. So long as you win JUST enough, you can never truly dip out of the public view. Pettis lost three straight fights in 2015 and 2016, had a really ill fitted decision to drop to 145 lbs, barely scraped by another ill fitted 145 lbers then got smoked by Max Holloway. From there he'd beat the fighters he should (Michael Chiesa was particularly impressive) and lose to the dudes who replaced him at the top of the 155 lb ladder. Pettis campaigned for a fight at 170 lbs vs Stephen Thompson and got it in large part due to Santiago Ponzinibbio turning down the fight. He got boxed up by Thompson for two rounds, landed a sizable chunk of his own offense but then closed the show in emphatic fashion with a superman punch that put Wonderboy to sleep. One win made a lot of folks forget a lot of things en route to earning Pettis a co-main event spot on this very great card. His opponent is Nate Diaz, another fighter who made a lot of folks forget a lot of things on the back of one big win. Nate went from being the Diaz brother the UFC could deal with to a guy who has caused more noise for them than Nick ever did. Nate looked like he was going to disappear from the scene after the Bendo and Josh Thomson losses, beating the corpse of Gray Maynard before RDA just casually shut him down in a fight Nate was Nate missed weight, pulled out of his press obligations and just seemed not all there from a fighter standpoint. Everything changed with the McGregor fight where he upset Conor McGregor on short notice at 170 lbs. With some leverage, Nate put himself in position to earn a big payday and snagged it for a rematch. Since then he and the UFC have had a bit of a square dance in trying to get him fights vs Nate trying to maximize his leverage. A rumored fight with Tyron Woodley fell apart for December of 2017, Nate vs Dustin Poirier was on the books for November of 2018 and then the "official" ending to that was Dustin Poirier pulling out with a hip injury even if Dustin claims that Nate had pulled out weeks ahead of time and so he was the fall guy of sorts. All of this creates a situation where there's no way to know what is or isn't real here. Is Pettis better suited at 170 lbs where he, like Masvidal, feels more comfortable letting his hands go and fighting at a more unforgiving pace? Is Nate Diaz the dude who nearly toppled the UFC's apple cart vs Conor McGregor or the guy who went 1-3 and pretty much quit on the sport? To be honest does it even matter either? These two from a stylistic matchup create a compelling fight and even if we never see Nate again or Pettis eventually reverts back to being the dude Max Holloway made quit or Edson Barboza kickboxed up, we'll always have this one, right?

4- Really curious to see how Nate Diaz does in terms of his conditioning. Yes, he hasn't fought in three years BUT the counter to that is that Nate was training for fights during that time period that just never saw the light of day for various reasons. Also Nate has a style that's cardio friendly for the most part, taking steam off of his punches to throw combinations early on and then pouring it on late when his opponent is more tired than he is. As puts it, Nate Diaz just knows how to fight tired better than most guys.

5- You guys, we are absolutely about to get Yoel Romero vs Paolo Costa.

6- So we talk about Robert Whittaker being shop worn and it's true BUT conversely, what about Yoel Romero? Romero was in those five rounds wars with Whittaker, is old as hell, has years of high level wear and tear on his body and at some point he's simply going to fall off. Paulo Costa's body work is something that Yoel Romero has never had to tend to before. Most guys are terrified of getting in tight with Romero because unless you're an insane wrestler, chances are he's going to put the burners on you with an overhand right/flying knee or clinch you and get you on the mat if he's uncomfortable with the space and range. Costa though is an all pressure march ahead and throw caution to the wind striker who just overwhelms you with his intensity and his mental toughness. We've seen Yoel Romero just casually beat up on those grit and toughness dudes before and so this is a fine enough test for what remains of Romero and what Costa can bring differently compared to most guys.