#overeem

Joey

April 15th, 2019

The UFC is heading BACK to Russia! If January and February were a test of the UFC's depth and March was a test of their ability to put together loaded cards in back to back to back-ish weeks then April is all about proverbial pain tolerance. How much bad are you willing to endure to get to the good stuff? In a way I feel bad putting this card in that light because who knows if it'll actually be bad? This is a card with seven debuting fighters, a cool seven fights either cancelled or reshuffled, fights across two weight classes often derided for their lack of quality and a show that literally feels like an WMMA 4 stall show where you're just trying to turn a profit quickly to stay out of debt. This card could be amazing in quality and be one of those weird hidden gems or it'll turn into one of those Australia shows where it's 5 hours long and everybody is miserable when it's over. There is no quality to guarantee. Still we've got fights, we've got names, I've gotta do this so let's get right after it.

Fights: 12

Debuts: Arman Tsarukyan, Ivan Shtyrkov, Alen Amedovski, Seung Woo Choi, Movsar Evloev, Alex da Silva, Rafael Fiziev

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 7 (Alexander Volkov OUT, Alexey Olynik IN vs Alistair Overeem/Alexey Olynik vs Walt Harris CANCELLED/Roman Dolidze OUT, Roman Kopylov IN vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Abdul Karim-Edilov OUT, Ivan Shtyrkov IN vs Devin Clark/Sultan Aliev vs Emil Meek CANCELLED/Teemu Packalen OUT, Alex Da Silva IN vs Alexander Yaklovev/Roman Kopylov OUT, Michał Oleksiejczuk IN vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Alistair Overeem, Sergey Pavlovich, Roxanne Modafferi, Shamil Abdurakhimov and Marcin Tybura)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Marcelo Golm, Krzysztof Jotko, Alexander Yakovlev)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Alexey Oleinik, Islam Makhachev, Shamil Abdurakhimov)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 15-13

Alexey Olynik- 4-1 Alistair Overeem- 3-2 Islam Makhachev- 3-0 Arman Tsarukyan- 0-0 Sergey Pavlovich- 0-1 Marcelo Golm- 1-2 Devin Clark- 2-2 Ivan Shtyrkov- 0-0 Antonina Shevchenko- 1-0 Roxane Modafferi- 1-2 Alen Amedovski- 0-0 Kryzstof Jotko- 0-3

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Lightweight-  3 (23) Heavyweight- 3 (11) Light Heavyweight- 2 (15) Women’s Flyweight- 1 (13) Featherweight-  1 (18) Middleweight- 1 (11) Welterweight- 1 (23)

Bantamweight- (19) Flyweight- (7) Women’s Strawweight- (9) Women’s Bantamweight- (2)

2019’s Records We Keepin Track Of:

Debuting Fighters (9-20): Arman Tsarukyan, Ivan Shtyrkov, Alen Amedovski, Seung Woo Choi, Movsar Evloev, Alex da Silva, Rafael Fiziev

Short Notice Fighters (7-9): Alex da Silva, Alexey Olynik, Michał Oleksiejczuk, Ivan Shtyrkov

Second Fight (25-5): Antonina Shevchenko, Sergey Pavlovich

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (8-14): Magomed Mustafaev, Alexander Yakovlev

Undefeated Fighters (12-15):  Ivan Shtyrkov, Antonina Shevchenko, Alen Amedovski, Mosvar Evloev, Rafael Fiziev

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (5-5): Krzysztof Jotko

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (13-8): Alexander Yakovlev

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Most random MMA card ever?

2- Part of what makes heavyweight MMA so much fun (to me) is how renaissance-y it can be with its fighters. Alistair Overeem was smelted by Stipe Miocic, barely survived Fabricio Werdum, had his brain scrambled by Francis Ngannou, got Curtis Blaydes elbow'd into bolivian and then probably salvaged his long term future in the UFC with a win over hyped prospect and debuting talent Sergey Pavovlich. I think he has a pretty good chance to beat Alexander Volkov and then Volkov gets yanked for a medical issue, opening the door for MMA grandad Alexey Olynik to step up into the main event in Russia. It's hard to think of an easier matchup for Overeem than this one and if he wins, that's two in a row which qualifies as both a winning streak and "I'm gonna fight in the top 5 again pretty soon." On the other hand, Olynik has had one of the more surprising under the radar  runs in the entire division. He's just been quietly fighting all the dudes at the bottom half of this division (outside of Junior Albini, Olynik has not beaten a guy who remains in the UFC) before getting Mark Hunt in the ultimate striker vs grappler bout. He rocks Mark Hunt after getting leg kicked for three minutes straight and subs him to solidify himself as a big time player in a division where a fellow old man is ruling the roost. It's about as romantic as heavyweight MMA gets, my dudes.

3- Speaking of romantic, Shamil Abdurakhimov fights on this show.  Just sayin'.

4- So if you took even a cursory gander at the numbers I slaved over a hot stove to produce, you'll see that fighters in their second fight are a cool 25-5. Keep that in mind with Sergey Pavlovich who I think has super high upside at a division in serious need of it. The UFC thought Overeem was more cooked than he was and Pavlovich got checked pretty hard BUT this is a soft rebound vs Golm and it's in Russia where Pavlovich is from. I'm betting on a much better showing.

5- Why is Islam Makachev in the co-main? I know there's some talk that Makachev vs Trinaldo was supposed to be the co-main event here but even so, that's not a co-main event. It almost feels like this is to try and get some kind of a Khabib rub which is great and all but couldn't we find a better opponent than a solid prospect in his debut?

6- Congrats to Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi for being the first ever women's UFC fight in Russia.

7- Gimme a second to chit chat about Magomed Mustafaev. Magomed was seen as yet another really talented 155er popping up in the UFC and the next in a long line of good Russian lightweights who were popping up in the UFC. He was the last of the Makachev, Taisumov, Khabilov, Khabib types to roll through the door although I thought outside of Khabib, he was more impressive than either of the other two. Then came the Kevin Lee fight where Magomed fought really emotionally, got tired out by Kevin Lee and then got subbed after a pretty rough grappling fight. He apparently hurt his arm, hurt it again and has been out for over two years now. He's getting ultra violent Rafael Fiziev in what should be one of the best fights of the night.

8- 205 lbs tends to feel very much like a wasteland but I'm excited about the Devin Clark vs Ivan Shtyrkov. As we've seen consistently at 205 lbs, being really strong to the point where opponents are scared to get in your wheelhouse can absolutely be a benefit. I love the dude but Ilir Latifi's entire run at the weight class can be summed up as him just being SO strong that people have no clue what to do with him unless they take him out. Ivan Shtyrkov is.....well he's big. Big enough that it feels like he vs USADA is going to be a consistently rumored fight on the cards. In truth though this isn't a can crusher walking into the UFC with no major experience; Ivan has fought dudes like Fabio Maldonado, Phil De Fries, Big Foot Silva, Thiago Silva and Christian MPumbu. We can debate the quality of remains of said fighters after UFC and Bellator runs BUT that's still better comp than the dudes getting signed off of racking up wins over guys who are 5-10, 6-9 and 5-1. I also still haven't quite gotten off the Devin Clark bandwagon and thought he looked pretty damn solid in a wild loss to Aleksandr Rakic where he had Rakic in trouble but lost the firefight.

9- Krzysztof Jotko is 0-3 in his last three fights and if you want to take pride in how fast the MW division has grown, Jotko was like a pseudo top 10 guy for a good minute prior to 2017.

10- Keita Nakamura vs Sultan Aliev could challenge for the worst fight of 2019.

11- Whose feelings did Marcin Tybura hurt to go from consistent main card spots to "dude on the prelims of a filler Russia card"?

St. Petersburg gets a show. 

Joey

November 28th

Not since LAST November-December have we had two genuinely stacked PPV events back to back. UFC 217 brought the sizzle with three title fights, former champions and title contenders competing for standing and a loaded prelim slate with HWs and BWs looking to find their place in the world. UFC 218 heads to Detroit with just one title fight but with it a host of potential #1 contender clashes alongside a flat out good undercard with relevant fights and action fights all across the ledger. The headliner is a short notice clash between Max Holloway and Jose Aldo, a pretty damn good 145 lb title fight that could either solidify Max Holloway as a P4P great or reannounce Jose Aldo's return to the top of the division. Under it, all four main cards are REALLY on point with potential #1 contender clashes at HW, LW, Flyweight and SW. I can't begin to express my excitement for this bad boy much longer so let's just get right to it!

Fights: 13

Debuts: 1 (Allan Crowder)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Frankie Edgar OUT, Jose Aldo IN vs Max Holloway/Al Iaquinta OUT,  Charles Oliveira IN vs Paul Felder)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC):  13 (Jose Aldo, Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Alistair Overeem, Henry Cejudo, Sergio Pettis, Francis Ngannou, Michelle Waterson, Tecia Torres, Charles Oliveira, Alex Olivieira, David Teymur)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  1 (Angela Magana)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  11 (Sergio Pettis, Felice Herrig, David Teymur, Drakkar Klose, Alex Olivieira, Yancy Medeiros, Paul Felder, Tecia Torres, Max Holloway, Francis Ngannou, Alistair Overeem)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 41-35)- Allan Crowder

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 23-34-1)- Jose Aldo, Charles Olivieira

Second Fight (Current number: 27-37)- Justin Willis, Dominick Reyes, Sabah Homasi

Cage Corrosion (18-13-1)- 0

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- We should begin with the main event which in my estimation an improvement over the Edgar/Holloway booking. To explain, while Edgar/Holloway is a fresh fight and one that would've been truly awesome, we've seen Frankie lose to Aldo twice. Aldo is the superior fighter of that we have no doubt---and so seeing Holloway/Aldo II isn't as fresh but it is a better all around fight. The first fight in my estimation is one of those clear examples of "sometimes stats lie, man." Everybody, almost like a chorus of geese on a cold Winnipeg morning, honks about Aldo winning the first two rounds and that's true but also irrelevant. Why? Because if you WATCH the fight, you can tell that the second round was a round where stats lie. Halloway had no respect for Aldo's power, he marched him down, he took to give (in my opinion he won the round) and by the end of the second round, their respective reactions heading back to their corners should've told you who was winning or about to win that fight. It wasn't Aldo.

2- I also don't buy the idea that leg kicks are some vaunted weapon which has been missing from Aldo's game and will be some deciding factor. For starters, it's not Holloway hasn't faced explosive kickers in the past. Second, it's not Aldo's leg kicks are the key weapon to what was his dominant run to begin with. They're a tool in the act but no more a tool than his amazing takedown defense and superb angles. LASTLY this is a guy who has been rocked/dropped in 3 of his last 4 fights. He's been finished in 2 of them. The only guy who hasn't finished him is a guy who has one KO stoppage in the last six years (love ya Frankie!). Aldo has plenty of ways to beat Holloway and Holloway has plenty of ways to beat him in return---but leg kicks? Not really seeing it. Aldo hasn't been this big leg kick monster since about 2013 or so. They're a sparsely used gimmick at this point.

3- I wonder if the UFC is as frustrated at the 155 lb scene as we are as fans. We have:

-A champion who doesn't seem like he's defending any time soon.

-An interim champion who seems to be torn between waiting for the neverending stop of the McGregor/UFC table dance and taking a fight that risks him losing the biggest payday of his life.

-Two fantastic 155 lb fights that could determine #1 contenders for titles that don't seem to be getting defended any time soon.

-Dustin Poirier sitting on the outside looking in after dominating Anthony Pettis plus depending on who you ask finishing/almost finishing Eddie Alvarez.

Making matters worser than the worst worse, you have Nate Diaz potentially malingering around, the looming threat of Max Holloway or Jose Aldo finally making a move up as well as a solid crop of 155 lb talent who aren't close to title shot contention but would in theory be closing the gap if the division wasn't held up at the top so much (the aforementioned Paul Felder, a suddenly resurgent Clay Guida, Anthony Pettis is still young enough to turn things around, too too early to write off Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee after tough losses, Devid Teymur and the mystery that is Mairbek Taisumov).  At some point something has to give along these battle lines and I wonder if that means biting the bullet, admitting that there's a need for it and opening up 165 lbs.

3- I do think, title contention wise, it says something that Alvarez/Gaethje is 4th on the card underneath Pettis/Cejudo when it comes to relevancy. Could be nothing, could mean everything.

4- There's a lot of hype and pressure on Francis Ngannou. That's probably well deserved but as I've said perhaps one time too many, don't get caught up in the narrative if he loses. Once upon a time, Stipe Miocic got his first real big step up and he was iced in two rounds by Stefan Struve. Shawn Jordan once put Derrick Lewis on ice skates with a fat guy wheel kick. This will shock and amaze you but fighters do improve over time and at HW, nobody is ever truly a lost cause. Division lives for chaos.

5- I know I'm the weirdo in this regard but I'm really excited to see how Sergio Pettis handles the challenge that is Henry Cejudo. Of all the Duke Roufus products, Sergio is the one who seems to most fit the mold of what they want. Functional in every facet of the fight while still having the flash, sizzle and workrate to keep people interested. Cejudo's rediscovered his power recently and his boxing has looked world's better. I have cardio concerns with him as you always need to but Sergio Pettis has always had an aversion to guys who pack a shot on the feet. This fight could be really great.

6- Paul Felder's stock, which continues to go up and down depending on the time of year, is probably as high as it's been since he iced Danny Castillo way back in 2014. Felder has always been really talented but at 33, the clock's ticking on him really making a run. He's won 4 of his last 5 fights but the only guy who remains int he organization out of that group is Stevie Ray. His losses are two totally acceptable ones (a decision to Barboza where he could've probably won, a 3rd round TKO stoppage vs Francisco Trinaldo in Brazil) and one totally bemusing loss to Ross Pearson where he spun for the entire fight chasing a bonus and never got it. Felder's inconsistency is partially the reason why it's hard to feel overly confident in him vs Charles Olivieira. Do Bronx is always dangerous for a quickie sub and he showed that vs Will Brooks when he got his back and subbed him in the first round in April. Historically Charles has won to the guys he's supposed to beat and found creative insightful ways to lose to the guys he shouldn't. He's always in a fight until it's over and Felder historically leaves enough margin for error where  he could, in theory, give Do Bronx opportunities.

7- David Teymur thus far has passed every test put in front of him. He was successful in TKO-ing guys who he probably would've been fighting on the regional scene and then really broke out when he spoiled the Lando Vannata hype with a decision win in March. Teymur is one of those guys who mixes techniques well, never tries the same trick twice and has improved time and time again whenever he fights. He's a bit old for a prospect (28) and Drakkar Klose will probably be the bigger, stronger fighter but I'm excited to see what Teymur has added to his game during his time away. Dude has top 15 potential in my estimation.

8- There's going to be a lot of interest in the Waterson/Torres fight and fair play to it but I'm all about that Felice Herrig/Courtney Casey bout. I haven't been wow'd in Felice's more recent fights (never really impressed with Kish, thought Grasso won) BUT even having said that, she's finally matching her record with her boisterous personality. On the other hand, I'm all about that Courtney Casey violence. She debuted vs Joanne Calderwood on short notice and put it on her before she gassed. The same for her vs Seo Hee Ham where she started off hot and then the wheels fell off. She rebounded by finishing Christina Stanciu and has a "way more impressive in hindsight" sub of Randa Markos. A loss to Claudia Gadelha followed where she never seemed to get out of second gear and you could almost sense her upside would be "tough woman who lives on the outskirts of the top 10." She then went and beat the fuck out of Jessica Aguilar in a fight that wasn't competitive for a single minute of its duration. She is all action, all the time and Felice Herrig's size, grappling and developing hands are going to give her a real test. This fight is great.

9- Yancy Medeiros vs Alex "Cowboy" Olivieira is gonna be your favorite 90s gore action movie where it's all violence with no sense behind it. Just action figures ramming into one another.

10- Does the Ngannou/Overeem winner gets the "The UFC would like you to face Stipe Miocic on -insert date here-" sprung up on them?

11-  So Dominick Reyes is arguably the most exciting prospect at 205 lbs in a long long time---but I can't help but feel like Jeremy Kimball is going to be a step too far for him in his development. I kind of think the UFC thinks so too since it's buried on the FP prelims where a loss can almost be hidden.

12- Would a loss to Tecia Torres expose Michelle Waterson as being a PVZ-esque hype job?