#oiltimeline

Namibia’s offshore went from “maybe someday” to 20B+ barrels discovered in just four years, with 14 of 16 wells successful.

This discovery timeline tracks every major well: Venus, Graff, Mopane, Mangetti, Kudu gas, and shows how Namibia became Africa’s hottest oil frontier.

Namibia isn’t producing oil yet, but the clock is ticking: Shell’s Graff development is modeled for first oil in Q4 2029, with FPSO arrival, hook‑up, and first cargo by late November or December.

The article lays out a granular path from 2026 appraisal and FEED, through 2027 FIDs, 2028–29 infrastructure build, plus risk scenarios that could slip first oil into 2030.​

It also compares Namibia’s 7.75‑year discovery‑to‑production cycle with faster projects like Jubilee and Liza, and explains why deeper water, lack of legacy infrastructure, and post‑COVID capital discipline stretch the timeline.

For investors, the focus is on catalysts—FID, FPSO contracts, arrival, and first oil—that can compound into 300–600% upside ahead of 2029.​