#namibiaoil

The Namibia oil numbers everyone keeps sharing are misleading. Here is what is actually real.

You have probably seen headlines claiming Namibia discovered 6 billion barrels or even 11 billion barrels.

Those figures are not exactly false but they measure something that almost nobody explains properly - in-place resources, not recoverable oil.

The verified recoverable estimates look like this:

Venus (TotalEnergies, FID Q4 2026) - ~2 billion barrels recoverable Mopane (Galp/TotalEnergies, FID 2028) - 800 million to 1.1 billion barrels recoverable Shell PEL 39 portfolio - ~500 million barrels recoverable Kudu (BW Energy) - ~190 million barrels of oil equivalent

Total: approximately 3.5 to 3.8 billion recoverable barrels.

That is still a genuinely enormous discovery and one of the largest frontier finds globally in the last decade.

The misleading numbers just make it harder to understand what is actually happening.

We wrote a complete fully cited guide to every major Namibian offshore field with correct ownership stakes, FID timelines, production targets, and economic context.

Three Licences, One Strategy: How TotalEnergies Locked Up Namibia’s Core Orange Basin

TotalEnergies’ Namibia move isn’t just about Venus or Mopane in isolation: it’s about controlling the triangle of PEL 56, PEL 83 and PEL 91 by 2026.

An asset swap with Galp hands operatorship of Mopane (PEL 83) to TotalEnergies, while Galp comes into PEL 56 and 91 as a non‑operated partner; on the other two licences, TotalEnergies was already the operator with QatarEnergy, Impact and NAMCOR.

This piece unpacks why that three‑licence footprint matters—shared subsea and FPSOs, optimised drilling and logistics, a managed exploration pipeline, and how it underpins TotalEnergies’ description of Namibia as a “golden province” with room for multiple FIDs in the 2026–2028 window.

Venus FID 2026: The Decision That Makes (or Breaks) Namibia’s First‑Oil Timeline

Venus has gone from wildcat to center of gravity for Namibia’s entire oil story. TotalEnergies has pushed its decision back from a hoped‑for 2025 date, but now multiple sources: including Namibia’s petroleum commissioner, converge on a late‑2026 FID target for a ~150k–160k bpd FPSO and up to 40 subsea wells in 3,000 m water. First oil around 2030 is now the working assumption in most serious decks.

This deep‑dive walks through the remaining hurdles (keeping costs under ~20 USD/bbl, sharing capex with the state, environmental approvals), the project design, and what a green or red light in 2026 would mean for Namibia’s “golden province” narrative and for TotalEnergies’ growth plan.

Namibia Oil Blocks Map: How to Read the Orange–Walvis–Luderitz Chessboard

Namibia’s “next Guyana” narrative lives on a map: PEL 39, 56, 83, 85 in the Orange Basin, Chevron’s PEL 82/37 in Walvis, and early‑stage PEL 84 in Luderitz, plus a ring of junior‑held blocks like PEL 28 and 87 around the big discoveries.

This guide lays out where every major PEL sits, who runs it, what’s actually been found, and then ranks blocks by risk: from Tier‑1 Mopane/Venus/Graff, to Tier‑2 adjacency plays, to Tier‑3 frontier acreage that might deliver the next surprise.

It also gives a simple 4‑step framework (basin, operator quality, discovery status, investor access) so you can quickly judge whether a block belongs in a conservative, balanced or high‑beta portfolio.​

Namibia Oil Rush 2026: One Year, Every Basin in Play

Namibia’s offshore story is no longer just a couple of headline discoveries: it’s a full‑blown 2026 oil rush. Venus and Mopane are pushing along FID paths, Shell is back with a new 2026 drilling campaign in PEL 39, Chevron is lining up Walvis Basin activity, Rhino is stacking PEL 85 discoveries, and onshore, ReconAfrica is prepping Kavango for production tests.

This piece lays out how all those moves fit together, from farm‑ins and asset swaps to drilling calendars and first‑oil timing, and why 2026 might be the year Namibia’s oil narrative shifts from “maybe” to “inevitable” for a lot of investors.

Venus ESIA Filed: TotalEnergies Locks In a Key Namibia Milestone

Venus just passed one of its biggest non‑technical gates: TotalEnergies and partners have lodged the final ESIA + ESMP for the offshore development with Namibian authorities as of 12 January 2026, applying for an Environmental Clearance Certificate that’s mandatory before any full‑scale project execution. That submission caps off multiple rounds of public engagement in 2025 - Windhoek town‑halls, coastal hearings and document‑review periods run by SLR Namibia and Urban Dynamics, that surfaced everything from marine‑ecology worries to local‑jobs expectations.

This piece unpacks what the ESIA actually covers, why regulators look at the near‑shore logistics node as closely as the FPSO, and how this ESIA/ECC step fits into the Venus timeline toward a 2026 FID and a first‑phase plateau in the 150,000–180,000 bpd range.

“Golden Province”: How TotalEnergies Plans a Multi‑FPSO Hub in Namibia

When TotalEnergies’ CFO and deputy CFO start calling Namibia a “golden province”, they’re not being poetic, they’re flagging a plan to run multiple FPSOs off Venus and Mopane and pump roughly 350 kbopd from the Orange Basin in the early 2030s.

The idea: Venus gets a 150–160 kbopd FPSO first (FID mid‑2026, first oil 2030), Mopane follows with a ≥200 kbopd FPSO after a 2028 FID, all built on a shared supply chain and subsea/engineering ecosystem.

This piece breaks down what that hub looks like, why TotalEnergies traded equity with Galp instead of paying cash, how the Mopane carry works, and where prospects like Olympe fit into a regional portfolio of ~10 billion boe of exploration potential.

Volans‑1X: Rhino’s Third Straight PEL 85 Hit—and a Big Gas‑Condensate Play

Rhino’s Volans‑1X well has quietly turned PEL 85 into one of the most interesting private‑operator plays in the Orange Basin. Spudded 31 July 2025 with Deepsea Mira, it hit TD at 4,497.5 m, logged 26 m of net pay in an Upper Cretaceous reservoir, and then flowed ~33 MMscf/d gas plus ~5,300 bbl/d condensate per day on test, high deliverability, rich liquids, and no water.

This deep‑dive shows how Volans builds on Sagittarius‑1X and particularly Capricornus‑1X (11,000+ bbl/d light oil, 38 m net pay) to suggest a connected fairway; unpacks the JV structure (Rhino/Azule/NAMCOR/Korres); and looks at what kind of gas‑condensate + oil hub you could justify if appraisal confirms scale across PEL 85.