#firstoil

Namibia First Oil 2029–2030: From Wildcat to FPSO

Namibia’s petroleum commissioner has gone on record: the country is aiming for first oil by 2030, and recent project schedules suggest that window has teeth: Venus and Graff both line up around 2029–2030 if FIDs land on time.

TotalEnergies is moving Venus toward a 2025–26 FID with 2029–30 first oil, while independent analysis of Shell’s Graff FPSO construction points to Q4 2029 as the most likely start date.

This article threads all those schedules together into one story: how Namibia realistically gets from “no production” today to 250–350 kbopd early next decade, and what has to go right (FID timing, capex, subsea contracts, rigs) for the 2029–2030 first‑oil window to hold.

Namibia isn’t producing oil yet, but the clock is ticking: Shell’s Graff development is modeled for first oil in Q4 2029, with FPSO arrival, hook‑up, and first cargo by late November or December.

The article lays out a granular path from 2026 appraisal and FEED, through 2027 FIDs, 2028–29 infrastructure build, plus risk scenarios that could slip first oil into 2030.​

It also compares Namibia’s 7.75‑year discovery‑to‑production cycle with faster projects like Jubilee and Liza, and explains why deeper water, lack of legacy infrastructure, and post‑COVID capital discipline stretch the timeline.

For investors, the focus is on catalysts—FID, FPSO contracts, arrival, and first oil—that can compound into 300–600% upside ahead of 2029.​